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International Comparisons of Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions The IEA Indicator Approach
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Transcript of International Comparisons of Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions The IEA Indicator Approach
© OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and Efficiency
Key Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY INDICATORS
International Comparisons of Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions The IEA Indicator Approach
Dr Peter G TaylorActing Head, Energy Technology Policy Division
Climate Change and Sustainable Development – The Role of Indicators Expert Group Meeting, United Nations, 15 – 16 October 2008, New York
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Overview
Introduction to the IEA work
Simple energy and CO2 indicators
Analysing trends and drivers
CO2 reduction potentials
Conclusions
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
IEA Indicators Work Establish a harmonised framework for
analysisHarmonisation => ComparabilityComparability => Understanding of
global trends and drivers Produce meaningful cross-country analysis
to provide guidance to policy-makers on:Underlying drivers (economic activity &
structure, income, prices...)Trends in energy use and CO2 emissionsEnergy efficiency opportunities and
progressPolicy effectiveness
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Shares of Global Final Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2006
Manufacturing33%
Households29%
Services9%
Transport26%
Other3%
Total final energy consumption: 285 EJ
Manufacturing38%
Households21%
Services12%
Transport25%
Other4%
Total direct and indirect CO2 emissions: 21 Gt CO2
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
OECD Euro
pe 19
90 2005
OECD Pacific
1990
2005
US & Canada
1990 200
5
Mexico
1990
2005
China 1
990 2005
India 1
990 2005
Brazil 1
990 2005
South
Africa 1
990 2005
Russia 1
990 2005
RoW 19
90 2005
EJ
Manufacturing Households Services Transport Other
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Total Final Energy Consumption by Energy Commodity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
OECD Europe
1990200
5
OECD Pacific
1990200
5
US & Canada
1990200
5
Mexico
1990200
5
China 1
9902005
India 1
9902005
Brazil 1
9902005
South
Africa 1
9902005
Russia 1
9902005
RoW 19
902005
Oil Natural gas Coal Renewables District heat Electricity
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Carbon Intensity of the Final Energy Mix
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
OECDEurope
OECDPacific
US &Canada
Mexico China India Brazil SouthAfrica
Russia RoW
kg C
O2 p
er G
J
1990 2005
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
CO2 Emissions per Capita
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
t CO 2
per c
apita
Other Transport Services Households Manufacturing
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
CO2 Emissions per Unit of GDP
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1990 1995 2000 2005
Inde
x (19
90=1
00)
Brazil OECD Pacific South AfricaMexico RoW US & CanadaIndia OECD Europe RussiaChina
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
kg C
O 2pe
r USD
200
0
using GDP at PPP using GDP at MER
2005 values
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
End-Use Coverage for Indicators
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Factors Affecting Energy-Related CO2 EmissionsLevel of Energy Use
ActivityStructure (mix of activities)Energy intensity of each activity
Carbon Intensity of Energy UseFuel mixCarbon intensity of each fuel
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Household CO2 Emissions by End-Use, IEA19
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990 1995 2000 2005
Mt C
O 2
Space heating
Appliances
Water heating
Lighting
Cooking
5% 4%8% 8%
16% 14%
27% 34%
45%39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 2005
Note: Energy use for space heating has been climate corrected
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Energy consumption of Appliances, EU15
0
100
200
300
400
500
kWh p
er ye
ar
1990 1995 2000 2005
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
1990 1995 2000 2005
Shar
e in t
otal
appl
ianc
es en
ergy
use
Large appliances Other appliances
Average Unit Energy Consumption
Share of Large and Small Appliances
Source: ODYSSEE
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Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Passenger Transport CO2 Emissions per Capita, 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
t CO2
per c
apita
Cars Other passenger modes
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Energy Use per Passenger-Kilometre (All Modes)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
MJ pe
r pkm
1990 2005
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Share of Total Passenger Transport by Mode, 2005
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cars Buses Rail Air Water
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Average Fuel Intensity of the Car Stock
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1990 1995 2000 2005
Litre
s of g
asol
ine e
quiva
lent
per
100 v
ehic
le-k
m
USAustralia J apan New Zealand Canada Switzerland Sweden Ireland Germany Netherlands Norway Austria France UKFinland Denmark Italy Greece
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Decomposition of Trends in Overall CO2 Emissions, IEA16
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 1990-2005
Aver
age a
nnua
l per
cent
chan
ge
Actual energy use Actual CO2 emissions Activity Structure Intensity Fuel mix Carbon intensity
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Decomposition of Trends in CO2 per Unit of GDP
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Aver
age a
nnua
l per
cent
chan
ge
Energy efficiency effect Energy services per GDP CO2 intensity effect CO2 per GDP
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Factors impacting CO2 emissions from final energy use, IEA16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1995 2000 2005
Gt C
O 2 Actual CO2 emissions
Hypothetical CO2 emissions without either energy efficiency or CO2 intensity improvements
CO2 emissions savings from energy efficiency improvements
18%
CO2 emissions savings from reductionsin CO2 intensity of energy mix
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Using Indicators to Calculate Reduction Potentials for CO2 Emissions Use of BAT/BPT to assess potential in the
industrial and electricity generation sectors These indicators are useful for showing:
To what extent existing technology can achieve further savings
Where the potential lies (countries and processes)
However, there are limitations to the use of the indicators:Assess instantaneous technical potentialDo not take into account practical constraintsNot suitable for short-term target setting
But calculated potentials are easy to understand
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
CO2 Reduction Potential in Cement, Based on Best Available Technology
0.18
0.39
0.250.22
0.20 0.200.19
0.14
0.090.06
0.16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
World Russia Canada US China Korea Brazil India OECDEurope
J apan Other
Mt C
O2
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
Spec
ific s
avin
gs p
oten
tial (
t CO2
per
tonn
e of c
emen
t)
Fuel CO2 Electricity savings Alternative fuel BF slag Other clinker substitute Specific savings potential
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Technical Fuel and CO2 Savings Potential from Improving the Efficiency of Electricity Production
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and EfficiencyKey Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY
INDICATORS
© OECD/IEA - 2008
Key Conclusions and Policy Messages Indicators are a powerful tool for analysing trends in
energy use and CO2 emissions, and calculating potentials for further savings
Results show the important role of energy efficiency in shaping patterns of energy use and CO2 emissions in IEA countries, but gains are often offset by other factors
Large potential for further energy and CO2 savings in many industries and power generation (and other sectors)
Sustainable development requires that CO2 emissions be decoupled from economic growth, this is possible but will require strong policy-action from Governments
Urgent need for governments to enhance framework for monitoring end-use energy consumption and address the gaps in available statistical data
© OECD/IEA - 2008
INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY
Worldwide Trendsin Energy Use and Efficiency
Key Insights fromIEA Indicator Analysis
ENERGY INDICATORS
Thank you !
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The latest IEA indicators report (published May 2008) is available for free download at: www.iea.org/Textbase/Papers/2008/Indicators_2008.pdf