International C20C Project: History and Overview J. Kinter, C. Folland and F. Molteni Third...

International C20C International C20C Project: History Project: History and Overviewand Overview

J. Kinter, C. Folland and F. MolteniJ. Kinter, C. Folland and F. Molteni

Third International C20C Third International C20C WorkshopWorkshop

19 April 2004 19 April 2004 ICTP - Trieste, ICTP - Trieste, ItalyItaly

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere

Studies

BackgroundBackground

Purpose: Characterize variability Purpose: Characterize variability and predictability of climatic and predictability of climatic conditions and events of the past conditions and events of the past ~130 years associated with various ~130 years associated with various slowly varying forcing functionsslowly varying forcing functions

Initially focused on AGCMs forced Initially focused on AGCMs forced with HadISST sea surface with HadISST sea surface temperature and sea ice analysistemperature and sea ice analysis

Excerpt from Schubert et al. 2004 (Science, 19Mar2004)

Example:


Studies

Background (continued)Background (continued) Period of interest: 1871-currentPeriod of interest: 1871-current Organization:Organization:

Jointly organized by Hadley Centre, UK & Center for Jointly organized by Hadley Centre, UK & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), USAOcean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), USA

15 different modeling groups participating 15 different modeling groups participating internationallyinternationally

CLIVAR project & reporting to WMO/CAS/WGNECLIVAR project & reporting to WMO/CAS/WGNE Now includes many other forcing data sets, Now includes many other forcing data sets,

including greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic including greenhouse gases, ozone, volcanic aerosols and solar variabilityaerosols and solar variability

Being expanded to include use of coupled models Being expanded to include use of coupled models in order to more accurately simulate modes of in order to more accurately simulate modes of variability that are inherently coupledvariability that are inherently coupled


Studies

Current Participating Current Participating GroupsGroups

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (www.bom.gov.au)) China Meteorological Agency, China (China Meteorological Agency, China (www.cma.gov.cn)) Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA (Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA (www.iges.org)) Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Brazil (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Brazil (www.cptec.inpe.br)) Department of Natural Resources, Mines & Energy, Queensland, Australia Department of Natural Resources, Mines & Energy, Queensland, Australia

((www.nrm.qld.gov.au)) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA (gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov)) Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK (Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK (www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre)) International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy (International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy (www.ictp.trieste.it)) MeteoFrance, France (MeteoFrance, France (www.meteo.fr)) Main Geophysical Observatory, Russia (Main Geophysical Observatory, Russia (www.mgo.rssi.ru)) Meteorological Research Institute, Japan (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan (www.mri-jma.go.jp)) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan (www.nies.go.jp)) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand

((www.niwa.cri.nz)) Seoul National University, Korea (Seoul National University, Korea (www.snu.ac.kr:)) University of California at Los Angeles, USA (University of California at Los Angeles, USA (www.ucla.edu) )


Studies

ChronologyChronology Project initiated by Hadley CentreProject initiated by Hadley Centre

several informal bilateral collaborations establishedseveral informal bilateral collaborations established 11stst workshop held at Hadley Centre in Nov 1994 workshop held at Hadley Centre in Nov 1994 Input to 1995 IPCC assessment and special session at 1Input to 1995 IPCC assessment and special session at 1stst

international AMIP conference in 1995international AMIP conference in 1995 Revitalized by Hadley Centre and COLARevitalized by Hadley Centre and COLA

1998 invitation to several modeling groups1998 invitation to several modeling groups infrastructure provided by COLA (infrastructure provided by COLA (www.www.igesiges.org/c20c.org/c20c; GDS) ; GDS) 22ndnd workshop held at COLA in Jan 2002 (reported in workshop held at COLA in Jan 2002 (reported in CLIVAR CLIVAR

Exchanges, Exchanges, Jun 2002)Jun 2002) Agreed set of runs with updated forcing data sets, Agreed set of runs with updated forcing data sets,

diagnostics and special projectsdiagnostics and special projects C20C established as official CLIVAR project in 2003C20C established as official CLIVAR project in 2003 Third Workshop - 19-23 Apr 2004, ICTP, ItalyThird Workshop - 19-23 Apr 2004, ICTP, Italy


Studies

ContributionsContributions

C20C contributes to: C20C contributes to:

Seasonal to interannual predictabilitySeasonal to interannual predictability

Decadal to interdecadal variability & Decadal to interdecadal variability & predictabilitypredictability

Simulations of climate trendsSimulations of climate trends

Model evaluationModel evaluation


Studies

Special TopicsSpecial Topics Predictability of seasonal to decadal phenomenaPredictability of seasonal to decadal phenomena

1930s drought in USA (“Dust Bowl”)1930s drought in USA (“Dust Bowl”) 1962-63 European winter1962-63 European winter Autumn 2000 western European floodsAutumn 2000 western European floods 2003 European heat wave2003 European heat wave Decadal modulation of response to ENSO in Australia, Decadal modulation of response to ENSO in Australia,

Indian monsoonIndian monsoon Time series and trendsTime series and trends

SOI, NAO, PNA, Asian monsoon rainfall, Sahel rainfall, SOI, NAO, PNA, Asian monsoon rainfall, Sahel rainfall, Nordeste Brazil rainfall, MJO trendsNordeste Brazil rainfall, MJO trends

Global and regional land surface air temperature trendsGlobal and regional land surface air temperature trends Others, e.g., river runoff trendsOthers, e.g., river runoff trends


Studies

Validating Data SetsValidating Data Sets

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-2003)NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-2003) ERA40 Reanalysis (1958-2002)ERA40 Reanalysis (1958-2002) HadSLP global sea level pressure HadSLP global sea level pressure

analysis (1871-2002)analysis (1871-2002) Jones land surface air temperature Jones land surface air temperature

and Hulme land surface rainfall and Hulme land surface rainfall analyses (1871-2002)analyses (1871-2002)

Xie-Arkin global precipitation Xie-Arkin global precipitation analysis (1979-2003)analysis (1979-2003)


Studies

DiagnosticsDiagnostics Monthly means, all ensemble membersMonthly means, all ensemble members

Geopotential height at 500 and 200 hPaGeopotential height at 500 and 200 hPa Mean sea level pressureMean sea level pressure Precipitation and evaporationPrecipitation and evaporation Temperature at 2m and 850 hPaTemperature at 2m and 850 hPa Zonal and meridional winds at 850 and 200 hPaZonal and meridional winds at 850 and 200 hPa Total heat flux and wind stressTotal heat flux and wind stress Soil moisture indexSoil moisture index Zonal mean cross-sections of U, V, T and qZonal mean cross-sections of U, V, T and q

Basic statisticsBasic statistics Seasonal means and standard deviationsSeasonal means and standard deviations Estimates of forced variability (ANOVA)Estimates of forced variability (ANOVA) Linear regression trends 1950-1999 (or 1952-2001)Linear regression trends 1950-1999 (or 1952-2001) Regression with NINO3.4Regression with NINO3.4

Special diagnostic projectsSpecial diagnostic projects {Refer to Second C20C Workshop, Working Group 2 Report}{Refer to Second C20C Workshop, Working Group 2 Report}


Studies

Links to CLIVARLinks to CLIVAR

C20C became a CLIVAR activity in C20C became a CLIVAR activity in 20032003

Also reports to Working Group on Also reports to Working Group on Numerical Experimentation Numerical Experimentation (WCRP/CAS/WGNE)(WCRP/CAS/WGNE)

Exploring links to WCRP Working Exploring links to WCRP Working Groups on Seasonal to Interannual Groups on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WCRP/CLIVAR/WGSIP) Prediction (WCRP/CLIVAR/WGSIP) and Coupled Modeling and Coupled Modeling (WCRP/CAS/WGCM)(WCRP/CAS/WGCM)


Studies

C20C Phases of ActivityC20C Phases of Activity Phase 1 (prior to 2003) : SST and sea icePhase 1 (prior to 2003) : SST and sea ice

Hadley Centre provides HadISST1.1 SST and Hadley Centre provides HadISST1.1 SST and sea ice data set as lower boundary conditionssea ice data set as lower boundary conditions

Integrate over 1871-2002 (at least 1949-2002)Integrate over 1871-2002 (at least 1949-2002) Ensembles of at least 4 membersEnsembles of at least 4 members

Phase 2 (2003 - ) : atmospheric compositionPhase 2 (2003 - ) : atmospheric composition Greenhouse gases – COGreenhouse gases – CO22, O, O33, etc. , etc. Aerosols (volcanic)Aerosols (volcanic) Solar variabilitySolar variability

Phase 3 (2004 - ) : land surface variabilityPhase 3 (2004 - ) : land surface variability specified evolution of soil wetness and specified evolution of soil wetness and

vegetationvegetation


Studies

Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities

Third Workshop Third Workshop 19-23 April 2004; hosted by ICTP (Trieste, Italy)19-23 April 2004; hosted by ICTP (Trieste, Italy) Results of Phase 1 integrations; initial Phase 2 Results of Phase 1 integrations; initial Phase 2

resultsresults Planning for Phase 2 and beyondPlanning for Phase 2 and beyond Representatives of WCRP programs – discussion of Representatives of WCRP programs – discussion of

how to specify/deal with forcings, coupled modelshow to specify/deal with forcings, coupled models Planning for comparison to coupled modelsPlanning for comparison to coupled models

Coupling to mixed layer or dynamical oceanCoupling to mixed layer or dynamical ocean Coordination with WGCMCoordination with WGCM Efficient estimation of anthropogenic signalsEfficient estimation of anthropogenic signals


Studies

IssuesIssues What are the limitations of AGCM runs that What are the limitations of AGCM runs that

have no direct coupling to the ocean surface? have no direct coupling to the ocean surface? Are local/regional fluxes misleading?Are local/regional fluxes misleading?

How should we include coupled models in How should we include coupled models in C20C work, e.g. thermohaline-forced C20C work, e.g. thermohaline-forced variations in climate? understanding variations in climate? understanding interannual predictability?interannual predictability?

Should we adopt a set of common or core Should we adopt a set of common or core diagnostics that all groups will produce in diagnostics that all groups will produce in order to contribute to the IPCC assessment order to contribute to the IPCC assessment (model evaluation) in a more systematic way? (model evaluation) in a more systematic way?


Studies

Future …Future …

Report of Third Workshop to CLIVAR Report of Third Workshop to CLIVAR 2004 Conference in June 20042004 Conference in June 2004

Input to model evaluation or other Input to model evaluation or other relevant sections of 2005 IPCC relevant sections of 2005 IPCC assessmentassessment

Fourth C20C Workshop in 2006 Fourth C20C Workshop in 2006 tentatively being planned for Exeter, tentatively being planned for Exeter, UKUK

International C20C Project: History and Overview J. Kinter, C. Folland and F. Molteni Third...

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