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THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED SMMT, the ‘S’ symbol and the ‘Driving the motor

industry’ brandline are trademarks of SMMT Ltd

International Business Group

SMMT

13:30,Tuesday13 March, 2012

Investing in Brazil

Market Entry Considerations Diego Chaves – Senior Manager, PwC UK

PwC

Contents

• Why think of Brazil differently?

• Investing in Brazil – Entry methods:

– Sell direct from UK or via distributor/ agent

– Initiate operations in Brazil (Greenfield)

– M&A – Partnership, JV, Acquisition

• Brazilian Automotive Sector

• How can we help

3

December 2011

PwC

Why think of Brazil differently?

PwC

Market entry in Brazil Macroeconomic overview

• Brazil is on the radar of many companies in the global scenario as it market stands as an important growth opportunity.

• Lower and middle class goods segments should present the major potential growth.

5 Source: The economist, Tendências (february/2012) (december/2011), PwC Analysis

GDP growth projections (2010 to 2021)

7.5%

2.8%

3.2%

4.0% 3.7%

4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0%

3.8%

3.6%

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

PwC 6

Market entry in Brazil Why think of Brazil differently?

Market factor Brazilian characteristics

Tax / regulatory • High tax burden • Politically stable but bureaucratic • Protectionism in some markets

Supply chain • Logistical / infrastructural issues • Geographic considerations

Competitive landscape

• Highly fragmented markets, usually with 1-5 large players

Financing • Cheap under the right circumstances

Business practices

• Proximity to customers is critical

Business-specific issues

• Availability of inputs • Technology • Commoditised products vs. differentiated • Demographic considerations

December 2011

PwC

Market entry strategies

PwC

Market entry in Brazil

8

Sell direct from UK or via distributor/ agent

Initiate operations in Brazil (Greenfield)

M&A - Partnership, JV, Acquisition

December 2011

PwC


9




December 2011

PwC 10

Positive Points

• Importance of relationships and local presence

• Potential for commercial partnerships

• National content requirements vary depending

on local availability & other criteria

• Currency risk

• Import tax (varies significantly)

• Agency/ distribution considerations

− Acquiring distributor or even ceasing

contract can be difficult

− Branding control

− Exclusivity

Considerations

• Lowest risk

− Cost

− Time

− Convenience

• Technology retention

• Customs time reduced significantly

through an agent

• Logistics issues outsourced

Market entry in Brazil Sales from UK / via distributor/ agent

December 2011

PwC


11




December 2011

PwC 12

Positive Points

• Time to reach maturity

− Initial setup – permits, other delays, etc

− Relationships - critical

− Negotiating Brazilian business practices,

complex tax system & bureaucratic burden

• Poor market information increases risk

• Availability of inputs

– Labour (skilled vs. unskilled)

– Special materials / components

• Financing

• Legal & tax structuring

• Labour relations & social security

– Legislation favours employees

Considerations

• Demonstrates commitment to local market

• Technology retention

• National content / local requirements?

− Assemble vs. manufacture

• Certifications

• Control over quality and branding

• Tax/ regional incentives

Investing in Brazil – Entry methods Initiate operations in Brazil (Greenfield)

December 2011

PwC 13

Success Cases

Market entry in Brazil Initiate operations in Brazil (Greenfield)

• In February 2011 Hyundai announced R$ 1 Billion investments for a new plant in Piracicaba – São Paulo

• In Brazil since 2007 • Framework agreement with PB and

contracted by OGX

• In 1999, the 1st Fnac store outside Europe was opened in São Paulo.

• There are 10 FNAC stores in Brazil

But be careful…

• Opened its factory Eldorado do Sul (Rio Grande do Sul) in November 1999

• Negative publicity from slave labour conditions discovered in 2011 with main supplier AHA, from Brazil

• Delays on delivery caused by failure to secure environmental permits

Unnamed EPC provider

• Started its operations in Brazil in 2008

• Figures in the top 10 brokerage houses in the country

• Started the production of iPhones in October 2011 in Jundiai – SP

• Announced that could invest up to US$ 12 Billion

December 2011

PwC


14




December 2011

PwC 15

Positive Points

• Poor market information impacts on:

− Identifying & approaching targets

− Valuation difficult

• Valuation “mismatches” very common

− Labour & tax contingencies – due diligence

− Price adjustments hard to introduce

• Deal risks

• National content / quality requirements

− Assemble vs. manufacture

• Quality control (in the case of JVs/ Partnerships)

• Ability / need to retain management

• Cultural / linguistic issues

Considerations

• Instant reward:

− Revenues

− Relationships

− Understanding of market & Brazilian

practices

• Quality control (acquisition)

Investing in Brazil – Entry methods M&A – Partnership, JV, Acquisition

December 2011

PwC 16

December 2011

Investing in Brazil – Entry methods M&A trend analysis Transactions per year in Brazil

Source: PwC deals database

• Foreign Capital present in 39% of transactions (204 deals);

• Private equity was present in 43% of deals to October.

• Primary sectors for deals in Brazil have been IT, Foods, (Petro)Chemicals, Financial Services and Retail

395

337

415389

573

722

645 644

797

346

274313 317

453

576 569

510

634611

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Jan to Dez Jan to Oct

From 2002 to 2005 an average of 384 transactions per

year were announced.

From 2006 to 2009 an average of 645 transactions per

year were announced.

PwC

Brazilian Automotive Sector

PwC

15.0

8.4 8.0

5.8

4.4

3.4 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.2

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Chin

a

US

A

Japan

Germ

any

South

Kore

a

India

Bra

zil

Mexic

o

Spain

Fra

nce

World Sales and Production

18 Source: Q1 2012 Autofacts, Anfavea, AutoData, PwC Analysis

Production by country – (2011)

[million units]

Sales by country (2011)

[million units]

Brazil is the 7th in the production rank and the 5th market in sales.

14.2

12.7

4.1 3.5 3.4

2.9 2.6 2.1

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Chin

a

US

A

Japan

Germ

any

Bra

zil

India

Fra

nce

UK

PwC

World fleet

Source: Anfavea, Autofacts, Analyses PwC

World fleet by country Automotive density by country

[inhabitants per vehicle] [million units]

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1998

2008

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1998

2009

2020

Currently, Brazil has a density of 7 inhabitants per vehicle with great potential when compared to countries such as Argentina in South America

and mature markets.

19

PwC

Brazilian market demand forecast

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate Source: Anfavea, Tendências (february/2012), PwC Analysis 20

3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1

4.4 4.7

5.0 5.3

5.7 6.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PwC most probably scenario projects domestic sale of 4.4 million cars in 2015 and almost 6 million in 2020, an average growth of 6.5% p.y. in the

period.

Demand forescast

[million units]

PwC

More than US 20 billions was announced in investments to increase capacity in more than 1.5 million units until 2015.

21 Source: Automotive Business, Autofacts, PwC Analysis

Brand Investment Location Conclusion (estimated)

Value invested (US$B)

New plant Jacareí (SP) 2015 0.40

New plant and investments in Betim's plant

Goiana (PE) and in Betim (MG) 2014 5.90

Investments in capacity increase São Bernardo do Campo, Taubaté (SP) and

Camaçari (BA) 2015 2.60

Investments in capacity increase São Caetano do Sul, São José dos Campos, Mogi das

Cruzes (SP), Gravataí (RS) and Joinville (SC) 2012 1.70

Nem plant Piracicaba (SP) 2012 0.60

New plant construction with Sergio Habib partnership

Camaçari (BA) 2014 0.53

Expand Catalão’s plant and products portfolio

Catalão (GO) - 0.59

New plant in Resende Resende (RJ) 2014 1.50

Products development and plant capacity expansion

Porto Real (RJ) 2015 2.20

Products expansion in São José dos Pinhais’plant

São José dos Pinhais (PR). 2015 0.88

Investment to produce Jimny model Itumbiara (GO). - 0.06

New plant Sorocaba (SP) 2012 0.60

Investments in plants in São Paulo and Paraná

São Bernardo do Campo, Taubaté, São Carlos (SP) and São José dos Pinhais (PR)

2016 5.20

http://www.suzukimotos.com.br/Default.aspx

http://www.google.com.br/imgres?imgurl=http://www.sempretops.com/wp-content/uploads/hyundai-1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.sempretops.com/carros/hyundai-i15/&usg=__3H_SwpToB6eb_4xr5n9CRKDCQGY=&h=525&w=700&sz=26&hl=pt-BR&start=1&sig2=EHs6M1517zjPRmx1XEawEw&zoom=1&tbnid=ypkvQWMTg3QEvM:&tbnh=105&tbnw=140&ei=2kLeTqroH4HagAfOwICPBg&prev=/search?q=hyundai&um=1&hl=pt-BR&sa=N&rls=com.microsoft:en-US&tbm=isch&um=1&itbs=1

PwC

Automotive Sector: Key takeaways

• Scenario is positive for the Brazilian local market.

• Industry has began a major investment cycle (especially in products and increase in capacity)

• Main challenges: competitiveness and Brazil’s Cost.

• High taxation is still a major obstacle (including the difficulty in using tax credits and bureaucracy)

• Doubts about the suppliers capability to keep up with the expected growth

• Opportunities for new comers and imports: Koreans and Chinese, mainly

• Government and industry must work together, powering the local industry with investments in activities that increase the competitiveness and innovation

22

PwC

Auto parts: Key takeaways

23

• The Brazilian automotive market presented strong growth in recent years and the outlook is to maintain this positive scenario. This favorable situation has boosted the announcement of a series of new investments in Brazil, which should add more than 1.5 million vehicles/year in production capacity by 2015.

• This scenario drives the development of new technologies and partnerships between automakers and auto parts producers to meet the increasingly demanding market. The growth of the internal market also leads to increased demand for aftermarket parts.

• On the global scene, the competitiveness has been a critical factor. Therefore, the new investments announced in Brazil are increasingly based on the model of large industrial complexes. This model also benefits manufacturers of auto parts since the possibility of creating shared service centers, sharing infrastructure and general services generates a significant reduction in costs.

• Additionally, the search for a more competitive and further development of new technologies should accelerate the process of merger and acquisition in Brazil, with the formation of large groups of foreign and domestic firms.

• The New Automotive Policy (2011) requires 65% of regional local content (Mercosur) in order to not increase the Federal VAT (IPI) in 30pp. This a great opportunity for local producers

PwC

PwC – How can we help

PwC

What services we can offer

25

December 2011

Direct sales Entry execution

Post entry support

Direct Sales

• Tax evaluation & support

• Market research and options evaluation

Greenfield

• Market entry and options evaluation

• Market interviews

• Business planning and modelling

• Site identification

• Tax evaluation

• Full suit of PwC services

Audit

Tax

Advisory

4,000 people in 16 offices

M&A

• Support for M&A strategy development

• M&A target identification

• Approach of M&A targets and options evaluation

• Negotiation & financial advisory acquisitions

• Finance & Tax due diligence

• Commercial due diligence

• UK Bribery act advice

• Post deal consulting

(delivering deal value)

Decision making Entry execution Post entry support

Legal, Tax and HR structuring & planning

Cro

ss bo

rder a

pp

roa

ch (B

razil/U

K)

PwC 26

Contacts

Brazil

Rogério Gollo Deals Team Leader Tel: +55 11 3674 3851 Email: [email protected]

Marcelo Cioffi Automotive Sector Leader Tel: +55 11 3674 3621 Email: [email protected]

Paulo Petroni Consulting/Advisory Tel: +55 (11) 3674 3338 Email: [email protected]

UK

Diego Chaves Senior Manager Tel: +44 1895 522 308 Email: [email protected]

David Cooke Automotive Sector Leader Tel: +44 1895 522 107 Email: [email protected]

Valter Deperon Tel: +44 2078 041 165 Email: [email protected] December 2011

mailto:[email protected]






Thank you for your time!

© 2010 PwC. All rights reserved. Not for further distribution without the permission of PwC. "PwC" refers to the network of member firms of

PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL), or, as the context requires, individual member firms of the PwC network. Each member firm is a

separate legal entity and does not act as agent of PwCIL or any other member firm. PwCIL does not provide any services to clients. PwCIL is not

responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any of its member firms nor can it control the exercise of their professional judgment or bind them in any

way. No member firm is responsible or liable for the acts or omissions of any other member firm nor can it control the exercise of another member firm's

professional judgment or bind another member firm or PwCIL in any way.

DOING BUSINESS IN BRAZIL

The Society of Motor Manufacturers

& Traders Ltd

13th March 2012

1. Legal Structure

Brazil is a Federal Republic , comprised of the Federal

District, 26 states and over 5000 municipalities. The

federal Capital is Brasilia located in the Federal District.

The legal system is based on codes and legislation

enacted by the legislative power at the federal, state and

municipal Levels.

The basic law of the country is the Brazilian Constitution which establishes:

(i) The system of government;

(ii) The attribution of powers to the Legislative, Executive and Judiciary branches of government;

(iii) The legislative competence of the federal, state and municipal administrations.

2. Judicial Structure

Brazil is a civil law jurisdiction and decisions are based

on the application of statutory laws.

Where there is no specific statutory provision, the

courts may decide on the basis of analogy and general

uses.

3. Business Structure

There are 2 main types of companies that are used

for most business operations in Brazil:

• ‘sociedade anonima’;

• ‘sociedade limitada’.

“Sociedade Anonima – S.A.”

• is the equivalent of the corporation in the US and

the Public Limited Company (PLC) in the UK .

“Sociedade Limitada - LTDA”

• is the equivalent to closely held company in the US

and a Private Limited Company in the UK.

4. Foreign Investment

The Central Bank of Brazil is the agency in charge of:

(i) Managing the day-to-day control over foreign capital flow in and out of Brazil;

(ii) Setting forth the administrative rules and regulations for registering investments.

The Central Bank of Brazil is the agency in charge of:

(iii) Monitoring foreign currency remittances;

(iv) Allowing repatriation of funds.

It cannot restrict the remittances of funds from the risk capital or loan which are based on registration with the Central Bank, through its Electronic System of Registration.

5. Labour Aspects

The Labour system in Brazil is very particular and

regulate the details of labour-management relations.

The employees’ rights are compiled in the

Consolidation of Labour Laws – CLT and the basic

labour rights granted are:

(i) Legal limit of regular working hours – 44 per week or 8

hours/day;

(ii) Paid vacation of up 30 calendar days and additional payment of

1/3;

(iii) Minimum wage;

(iv) 13th salary and overtime payment;

(v) Prior notice period;

(vi) Maternity and paternity leave;

(vii) Weekly remunerated rest.

6. Distritution and Agency Agreements

• Agency (relationships goes until final client);

• Distribution (no relationship with final client);

• UK x BR Law (service of papers in case of claim).

7. UK BRIBERY ACT 2010 - General Offences

• Offering, promising or giving a bribe

• Requesting, agreeing to receive or accepting a bribe

• Relevant function or activity

Public nature

Connected with business/trade/profession

In the course of employment

By or on behalf of a body of persons

• Bribery in relation to

Companies

Individuals

Senior officers who consent or connive with bribery

UK BRIBERY ACT 2010 Extra Territorial Jurisdiction

Bribery committed anywhere in the world by any person with a ‘close

connection’ with the UK:

• British Citizen or individual ordinarily resident in UK

• UK body corporate

• Scottish Partnership

• UK company

Failure to prevent bribery being committed by an ‘associated’ person or

company anywhere in the world for or on behalf of:

• UK company

• Any company operating in the UK

Vitoria Nabas

[email protected]

T: +44 (0)207 252 0106

THE SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED

Erika Azevedo Section Manager for Advanced Engineering

UKTI Brazil

Conference call: Introduction and Q&A with Erika


Tom Thorelli

Partner

Thorelli and Associates

Successful formulas for doing business in

the US: a lawyer’s perspective

North American Vehicle Production

Forecasting & Industry Analysis

IHS Automotive

March 13 2012

SMMT International Business Group

71 Great Peter Street

London SW1P

North American Automotive Outlook: Recharging for Long-Term Growth

Presentation Outline

45

• U.S. Economy

• Sales Outlook

• Production Outlook

• Market Dynamics

• Summary

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

• The most likely outcome remains continuing (but modest) growth.

• Consumers will spend cautiously in order to rebuild their finances.

• Business investment, exports, and consumer durables are driving the expansion.

• Pent-up demand for housing will eventually lead to stronger economic growth.

• Fiscal tightening is coming, but the big issues (entitlements and taxes) will not be

settled until after the 2012 elections.

• The major global risks are:

• Financial contagion from the Eurozone sovereign-debt crisis

• An oil-price shock resulting from supply disruptions in the Middle East

• A hard landing in China caused by the bursting of real-estate market bubbles

• The probability of another US recession has diminished to 25%.

Bottom Line for the US Economy


(Index, over 50 indicates expansion)

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)

Supply Managers’ Indexes Signal Growth

47


2011 2012 2013 2014

Real GDP 1.7 2.1 2.3 3.3

Consumption 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.2

Residential Investment -1.4 9.0 15.9 26.0

Business Fixed Investment 8.6 6.8 5.9 7.7

Federal Government -2.0 -1.9 -3.4 -2.8

State & Local Government -2.3 -1.7 -0.7 0.3

Exports 6.8 4.3 7.1 7.6

Imports 5.0 3.6 3.7 4.1

(Percent change)

US Economic Growth by Sector

48


2011 2012 2013 2014

Industrial Production 4.1 3.8 2.9 3.6

Payroll Employment 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7

Light-Vehicle Sales (Millions) 12.7 13.6 14.7 15.6

Housing Starts (Millions) 0.61 0.74 0.99 1.39

Consumer Price Index 3.1 2.0 1.8 1.9

Core CPI 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.1

Refiners’ Acquisition Oil Price ($/barrel) 102 110 113 111

Federal Funds Rate (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

10-Year Treasury Yield (%) 2.8 2.2 2.7 2.9

(Percent change unless noted)

Other Key US Indicators

49


2011 2012 2013 2014

Real Consumption 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.2

Real Disposable Income 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.9

Real Household Net Worth 1.5 0.0 2.7 3.2

Payroll Employment 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7

Real Wage Rate -0.7 0.2 0.4 0.4

Consumption Price Deflator 2.4 1.5 1.6 1.8

Light-Vehicle Sales (Millions) 12.7 13.6 14.7 15.6

Home Sales* (Millions) 4.11 4.49 4.97 5.47

(Percent change unless noted)

* Single-family new and existing homes

The Consumer Markets Environment

50


(Percent change)

Consumer Spending Growth Is Limited by

Weak Disposable Income Gains Through

2013

51


• Pessimistic Scenario: Double-Dip Recession (25%)

• Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis leads to a global credit crunch.

• Policymakers allow the payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment

insurance benefits to expire in March 2012.

• Consumers retrench as asset values and real incomes erode.

• The US housing recession drags on; credit remains tight.

• Optimistic Scenario: Recovery Reignites (20%)

• The Eurozone crisis is resolved convincingly through institutional, fiscal, and

structural reforms.

• Credit channels function more smoothly, supporting investment.

• Confidence revives, leading to more spending and hiring.

• Robust growth in emerging markets fuels exports.

Risks to the US Forecast

52

CSM Worldwide + IHS Global Insight Automotive Group = IHS Automotive

Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 53



• Pent-up demand is driving the auto recovery

• Consumer confidence has plunged, but it appears as if the consumer attitude to new vehicle purchases remains favorable

• The recent sales numbers have exceeded expectations

• Retail, rather than fleet, remains the main driver

• Sales have improved, as Japanese cars return to the showrooms, but there are still some issues of availability

• Incentive spending has risen modestly, as inventories rebuild

• There has been an increase in lease activity

• Auto credit availability is improving

• The used car and truck market remains very strong

• Cost pressures will return but industry profits are good

Bottom Line – A weak economy will hurt the release of pent up demand, slowing not derailing, the auto market recovery

US - Auto Market Overview



Intention to Buy New Vehicle in 6 Months

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6 Month Moving Average Actual

(Percent Yes)

Conference Board



U.S. Light Vehicle Inventory — Units

Months — Seasonally Adjusted

(Units in thousands)

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012



U.S. Light Vehicle Inventory — Days Supply

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(Days Supply)

Months — Seasonally Adjusted

Light Trucks

Cars



8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Actual Forecast

Months

(Units in millions)

United States — Car & Truck Sales, SAAR



-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Current Old History & Forecast Pessimistic - 30% Optimisitc - 15%

(Percent Change)

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth



8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

8

10

12

14

16

18

Feb 2012 Forecast July Forecast Pessimistic - 30% Optimisitc - 15%

(Units in millions)

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales

2008: 13.2M units

2009: 10.4M units

2010: 11.6M units

2011: 12.7M units

2012: 13.6M units

2013: 14.7M units

2014: 15.6M units

2015: 16.2M units



14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

TRANSPLANT IMPORT

(Market Share)

Foreign Manufacturers:

Share of U.S. Market — Sales



(Real trade-weighted dollar index, 2005 = 1.00)

The Dollar’s Real Exchange Value Will

Depreciate Against Emerging Markets’

Currencies

63



(Percent change, nonfarm businesses)

Unit Labor Costs Will Rise About 2% Annually

64



• Downturn prompted tough

decisions and industry is far

better positioned for

profitable growth ahead

• Output in 2011 was limited

due to Japan tragedy and

Thailand flooding

• Constrained growth outlook

• Output recovers 5.8M units!

• Inventory building planned

• Demand strengthening

• Production localization

efforts are realized

Pro

du

ctio

n in

Mill

ion

s

Short-Term Outlook North American Light Vehicle Production

17

.2

15

.5

16

.4

15

.9

15

.8

15

.8

15

.3

15

.1

12

.6

8.6

11

.9

13

.1

14

.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


• Sluggish recovery

• Sustained high

unemployment

• Real estate issues

• Gas prices ~USD3.60/gal

• Build-to-demand model

• Reduced inventory

carrying; 60-day target

• New product cadence

• Favorable interest rates

• Conservative build with

additional upside support

66

8.6

11.9

13.1

14.4

15.2

14.9

15.4

12.7

13.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pro

du

ctio

n (

mill

ion

s)

Base Optimistic Pessimistic

Production Forecast Baseline Outlook


• Pace of recovery quickens

• Household wealth

• Consumer confidence

• Unemployment

• Housing

• Gas prices ~USD3.60/gal

• Postponed purchase

necessitated - scrappage,

avg. vehicle age +10 yrs

• Used-vehicle market

overheating

• Leasing/incentives jump

• Export strength

67

Production Forecast Optimistic Outlook

8.6

11.9

13.1

14.4

15.2

14.9

15.4

12.7

13.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pro

du

ctio

n (

mill

ion

s)



Negative Outlook

• Consumer confidence

• Household wealth

• Unemployment

• Next foreclosure wave

• Unrest in Middle East, oil

price volatility

• Credit availability slows

• Sovereign debt issues

remain; US-PIIGS*

• US dollar crisis?

• Confidence contagion

• Commodity/supply-chain

68 *PIIGS: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain

Production Forecast Pessimistic Outlook

8.6

11.9

13.1

14.4

15.2

14.9

15.4

12.7

13.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pro

du

ctio

n (

mill

ion

s)




Production Outlook North American Produced Vehicle Exports Bolster Prospects

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Europe

South America

Middle East/Africa

Greater China

Other

• Greater use of global

platforms allows for more

“export ready” product

• Free trade agreements

have made Mexico a

particularly strong export

player

• European sovereign debt

crisis poses a headwind

to some export growth,

yet is offset by shifting

sourcing patterns

• Developing regions drive

higher export prospects

No

rth

Am

erica

n V

eh

icle

Exp

ort

s (

Mill

ion

s)

North American Vehicle Exports by Region

0.74

1.05

0.82

0.99

0.92

1.17

1.38 1.35


North American Light Vehicle Production 2012 vs. 2011

OEM 2012F

(000s)

2011

(000s) % ∆

∆ Units

(000s)

GM 3,140 3,084 1.8% 56

Ford 2,807 2,725 3.0% 82

Chry/Fiat 2,152 1,998 7.7% 154

Detroit 3 8,099 7,807 3.7% 292

Toyota 1,603 1,256 27.6% 347

Honda 1,461 1,102 32.6% 359

Ren/Nissan 1,272 1,170 8.7% 102

Hyundai 688 612 12.5% 76

Asian 4 5024 4140 21.4% 884

VW 640 555 15.3% 85

BMW 272 275 -1.1% -3

Daimler 154 158 -2.3% -4

German 3 1066 988 7.9% 78

Others 201 200 0.5% 1

Total 14,390 13,135 9.6% 1255

• Toyota and Honda

gain on recovery and

inventory rebuilding

post Japan disaster

• Redesigns assist and

bolster new capacity

• GM output gains as

newer products ramp

up: Sonic, Verano,

ATS, XTS, Malibu

• Cautious demand

growth and export

gains drive macro

production story

• Cadence & localization

yield broad gains

across the region


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

NA Production

Recession

Trend

Similar volume impact on the market, yet downturn is condensed into shorter timeframe

Lagging recovery, yet outlook is helped by population growth and new capacity

16.7 Million

6-Year Contraction

Millions

17.8 Million

15-Year Expansion

Production Outlook Expansion and Contraction


Market Structure: Long-Term North American Production

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Y-O-Y %

Ch

angeO

utp

ut (

Mill

ion

s)

United States Mexico Canada Change

CAGR

4.1%

CAGR

4.2%

CAGR

-1.7%

2011 – 2019

72


4.95.7

4.2

1.9

3.1 3.1 3.5 3.5

4.5

4.7

2.9

1.9

2.7 2.83.0 3.1

2.9

2.9

2.5

0.9

1.9 2.2

2.3 2.3

2.0

2.5

4.2

2.9

4.1

4.9

6.4 6.5

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.1

1.3 1.4

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.5 0.6

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Millio

ns

73

Production Outlook North American Light Vehicle Production by OEM

• Production outlook is gaining, inventory position and export activity assist

• All manufacturers are poised to post gains; favors OEMs with further capacity expansion

plans: BMW, Hyundai, VW, Toyota & Honda

• Global product/platform strategies enable competitive sourcing shifts

15.6

17.1

German 3

Asian 4

Chrysler/

Fiat

Ford

General

Motors

Others

8.6

14.4

17.4

15.1

17.2

13.1


OEM Production Analysis 2011-2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

74

Toyota

Honda

R/N

GM

Hyundai

VW

Other

Chrysler/Fiat

Ford

Daimler

Contribution to Growth

2011 to 2019


Globalizing North America North American Production by Global Segment

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

20

11

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

A-Segment B-Segment C-Segment

D-Segment E-Segment Full-Frame

• A-Segment sourcing arrives

with Fiat 500

• B-Segment output surges

Mexico as export hub

• Detroit 3 continue to ramp

up global platforms

• Full-frame share cut in half

within one decade,

subsidies erode, yet still

holds 20% of the market

• Fuel price volatility raises

consumer awareness

• C- and D-Segments reach

critical mass – will aid profit

picture


Production SAAR by Region

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ap

r-07

Au

g-

De

c-0

7

Ap

r-08

Au

g-

De

c-0

8

Ap

r-09

Au

g-

De

c-0

9

Ap

r-10

Au

g-

De

c-1

0

Ap

r-11

Au

g-

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-12

Au

g-

De

c-1

2

EU

GC

JK

NAF

SA

SEA

EU

GC

JK

NAF

SA

SEA

M Vehicles

Note; Thicker line is Trend of SAAR

S America

S Asia

NAFTA

China

Europe

Jap & Korea


Future Powertrain Technology Trends

• VVT almost standard on any new engine; many migrating to DOHC, twin independent design

• GDI and gas boosting both ramp up quickly. The initial rollout is being led by American and

German manufacturers, although the others aren’t far behind

• Stop/Start technology growing, although fuel economy gains are in question given US test cycle

• Diesel and hybrid still relatively low-volume players in North American market

0

2

3

5

6

8

10

11

13

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Un

its (

Mill

ion

s)

Variable Valve Timing

Gas Direct Injection

E85

Gas Boosted

Cylinder Deactivation

Diesel

Hybrid/EV

Stop/Start

Advanced Transmissions*

North American Installations

* 6+ Speed/CVT/DCT/EV


OEM Review Detroit 3 – Leveraging Strengths

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

GM

Ford

Chry/Fiat

North American

Production Share (%)

• Strong portfolio of fresh products, global breadth

• Cautious market perspective,

• Touts technology: Hybrids, EVs, SYNC®, Ecoboost

• Asia strategy post Mazda; Volvo-tech residuals

• IPO, risk/reward profile remains fluid (Trucks/SUVs)

• Trucks: balance sheet boost, plan segment rebound

• Strong new global products; segment advances

• Luxury focus, Cadillac must make BRIC push

• Much progress-hurdles remain, launches pending

• Interim product updates, dated vs. global field

• Grand Cherokee strong - global Jeep focus

• Aggressive plans, must conquest - Wildcard


OEM Review Asian 4 – Uphill Battle

• Slow rebuilding process, still formidable, vast

resources and global scale, new Camry

• Renewed urgency; growth returns, tempered

• Tupelo launch - 2011; renewed product focus

• Product misses - protracted impact; must rebuild

• Core C-segment strength must keep pace

• Missed opportunity for segment expansion

• Leaf is PR coup, but core entries are aging

• Export strength: Smyrna and Mexico expansion

• Truck sourcing shift – Pathfinder, more to come

• Hyundai/Kia – product hits, Montgomery #2

• Momentum exploits missteps of competitors

• Value proposition maintained, aiming higher

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Toyota

Honda

R/N

Hyundai

North American



OEM Review Next Steps and A New Start

• US expansion continues, high export strength,

broad appeal to BRIC, developed markets

• X4 builds on CUV expertise, broadens appeal

• $2.0B investment - C-Class sourcing, CUV

expansion; export strengths

• Redesigned M-Class; R-Class refresh extends

lifecycle due to BRIC demand

North American


• Builds on unique product attributes, bolsters

loyal consumer base despite weak market

• Strong ties to Toyota, further sharing expected

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

BMW

Daimler

Fuji Heavy

Mazda• Steps out on own, Mexico site launches with

Mazda 3, followed by Mazda 2, more possible

• Mexico serves as growth & export platform, yet

weak product scale will hinder viability


Summary

• Global settings tempered in 2H 2011, chilled by EU concerns

– Economic headwinds persist yet consumer position improving; US demand

closed strong in 4Q, bolsters output gain of ~1.26 million in 2012

– Aggressive OEM build plans anticipate stronger sales recovery

– Supply chain continuity – tested post Japan tragedy, demand outlook showing

cautious strength, potential tripwires remain

• Globalization of North American industry – offers risks & rewards

– Competitive dynamics alter future landscape - favors global OEM strategy

• Regulatory Changes drive Investments: Safety, Convenience, Performance

– Crucial to distinguish between regulations and customer wants/needs

• Long-Term Prospects Intact – Demand & Output to Surge

– OEMs and suppliers must leverage time to fine-tune growth strategies


Presenter:

Stewart Pedder

Managing Director, SupplierBusiness

IHS Automotive

[email protected]

+44 (0)1780 484567

Forecast Author:

Mike Jackson

Senior Manager, Automotive Forecasting

IHS Automotive

[email protected]

+1 248 465 2833

Economics:

Sara Johnson

Senior Research Director, Global Economics

IHS

[email protected]

+1 781 301 9115

www.ihs.com

www.supplierbusiness.com

www.hybrid-ev.com




http://www.ihs.com/

http://www.supplierbusiness.com/

http://www.hybrid-ev.com/



2020 Vision of the Global Automotive

Industry

Pietro Boggia

Principal A&T– Frost & Sullivan

13th March, 2010

84

Table of Contents

1 Global megatrends that will impact mobility in the future 3

2 From macro to micro mobility 6

3 Outlook of global automotive industry by 2020 9

4 Top technology opportunities by 2020 12

5 Global opportunities in automotive aftermarket 15

Q&A

85

Global Mega Trends that will Impact Mobility in the Future

Car Sharing/Car

Pooling

Geo-Socialization

And Social Media

New Micro Mobility

products

Integrated Mobility

Solutions

E-Mobility

Connected and Wireless

Planet

Sustainable Public

Transportation and BRT

High Speed Rail

Urbanization Mega and Smart Cities

New Business Models

(Value for Many)

Power to the Middle Class

and Gen Y

86

Future Innovation in Mobility

Known Solutions

Met Needs Unmet Needs

Unknown Solutions

Technology Innovation

Traffic Prediction system

Parking Search assistance

Cashless Payment

Improvement

Micro cars

Electric Cars

Electric Bikes

Application Innovation

Car Sharing

Car Pooling

Bike Sharing

Wild Innovation

Mobility Integration

New Mobility Products

Motorized Mover

Two seated Electric Car

87

2020 Key Predictions: 2018 will be the tipping point in Automotive Industry

Volkswagen to emerge as the Numero-Uno OEM by 2020 with 12 per cent global market share.

All full hybrids will become plug-in hybrids in the developed world, and 85 per cent of cars in European Union to have start-stop systems.

Emergence of true global platforms with global OEMs collectively having under 150 platforms (30 per cent reduction in platforms from today).

Consolidation of Chinese Auto OEMs resulting in about 10 Major local OEMs in China.

There will be over 1.2 billion cars on road.

Intelligent / City cars to dominate 50 per cent of cars will have emissions less than 90 grams.

Two Chinese and one Indian OEM will be in the Top 15 Global OEMs.

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

2020 Vision of Global Automotive Industry: Overview (World), 2020

88

The Future Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to Door

Solutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms

2020

City

Suburbs

Intercity

TR

AV

EL D

IS

TA

NC

E

TRAVEL DISTANCE Destination

Public Transportation

Private Cars

Shared Mobility

Micro-mobility

Intercity Bus

Intercity Train

Shared Mobility

Door to door integrated, multimobility a reality in future

Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity

.

Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemes

Market will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators” Source: Frost & Sullivan

CAR OWNERSHIP

89

One-wheeled

One-seating

One-wheeled

One-standing

Two-wheeled

One-standing

Bike-type

Two-wheeled

One-standing

Segway-type

Two-wheeled

One-seating

Bike-type

Two-wheeled

Two-seating

Segway-type

Two-wheeled

Four-seating

Segway-type

Three-wheeled

One-standing

Scooter-type

Three-wheeled

One-seating

Motorcycle-type

Three-wheeled

One-seating

Wheelchair-type

Three-wheeled

One-seating

Three-wheeled

Two-seating

Motorcycle-type

Four-wheeled

One-seating

Car-type

Four-wheeled

Two-seating

Car-type

Four-wheeled

Three-seating

Car-type

OP

EN

- TO

P

CL

OS

ED

- TO

P

Micro Mobility Product Types The open-top models are largely there to target conventional bicycle, engine-driven scooter and

motorcycle users; while the closed-tops are targeted at conventional car users

90

Overview of Micro Mobility Models by Key Global Mainstream OEMs: About 125 micro mobility models announced by various stakeholders globally

One-W

heel

Four-

Wheel

Thre

e-W

heel

Tw

o-W

heel

General

Motors Ford Chrysler Renault Volkswagen Audi BMW Daimler Fiat PSA Hyundai Honda Toyota Nissan Suzuki Geely

3 4 1 5 8 6 12 4 2 13 10 13 6 6 5 2

4

32

31

33

100

Total

Total

P = Production ready

Micro Mobility Market : Key Mainstream OEM Models (Global), 2008-2018

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis

91

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

30

26 25

28.9

1973 1974 1975 1976

36.335.1 35.5

34.2

1990 1991 1992 1993

41.340.1

41.4

2000 2001 2002

1 2

3

4

Global Automotive Industry (1950 to 2020): 2010 being a Turnaround Year for

the Auto Industry, the Future is bright with the push from emerging economies

Un

its (

Millio

n)

2020 vision of Global Automotive Industry : Passenger Cars Production History (World), 1950 – 2020

Source: American Automobile Manufacturers Association, DRI-WEFA, and Global Insight; J D Power, Frost & Sullivan

1 1973 – 75 2 1990 – 93 3 2001 – 03 4 2007 – 10

-1973 Oil Crisis driven by OPEC em

bargo on oil exports to west, leads t

o global economic slowdown

-The 1987 stock market crash, follo

wed by the 1990 Gulf war and a res

ulting rise in Oil prices affected glob

al industrial production

-Dot-com bubble bursts driving the

economy down

-September 11 attacks on the US fu

rther causes an economic contracti

on

-US & Europe had witnessed a collaps

e in economy in end of 2008 followed b

y the fall of Lehman Brother.

-US showed recovery in 2010. Europe

economy is yet to recover.

5654

47

57

2007 2008 2009 2010

- Emerging countries will drive the global sale.

- BRIC is expected to contribute a share of 33% of global GDP by 2020 and largest market for automotive industry.

Passenger Car CAGR (2010 – 2020) : 4.66%

92

Global Automotive Sales 2020 - Regional Overview: Dominance of Asian count

ries in automotive industry will continue beyond 2020 with a growth CAGR of 5.58%

Note: Africa - South Africa

Asia - Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, New Zealand

Eastern Europe – Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

Middle East – Egypt, Iran

North America - Canada, Mexico, USA

South America - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela

Western Europe - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010

Source : JD Powers / Frost & Sullivan

70.7 Million Vehicles

2010

~ 110 Million Vehicles

2020 2020 Vision of Global Automotive Industry : Light Vehicle Sales, (World),(2010 – 2020)

The above vehicle sales forecast is for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (<3.5 t). Vehicle segments included are Basic, Subcompact, Com

pact, Large, Large Plus, Midsize, MPV, Pickup / Truck, Sports, SUV, Upper Midsize and Van

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Afric a Asia Ea ste rn Europe Middle Ea st North Ame ric a South Ame ric a We ste rn Europe

1 Million

7.3 Million

18 Million

China 29

USA 17.2

Canada 1.9

Brazil 5.3

Note: Vehicle Sales in Million Units

Africa1%

Mill

ion U

nits

2020

Japan 4.9

Iran 2.4

Turkey 1.3

Russia 4.2

Poland 0.8

Mexico 1.6

Argentina 0.7

Germany 3.9

UK 2.8

France 2.8

Spain 1.7

Others 3.9

Others 1.2

UK 2.9

Italy 2.8

2.8 Million

20.7 Million

48.5 Million

8.4 Million

India 7.8

Other 4.1 Korea 1.5

Indonesia 1.1

Other 2

North America

20%

Western

Europe

20%

Eastern Europe

5%

South America

7%

Asia 41%

Others 4%

Middle East 2%

North America

19%

Western

Europe

16%

Eastern Europe

8%

South America

7%

Asia 44%

Others 3%

Middle East 3%

CAGR : 4.56%

Africa 1%

93

0 5 10 15

Tata Group

Daimler Group

Changan Automobile Group

BMW Group

SAIC Group

Chinese Manufacturers

PSA Group

Honda Group

Fiat Chrysler Group

Ford Group

Hyundai Group

Renault-Nissan Group

General Motors Group

Toyota Group

Volkswagen Suzuki Group

2010 2020

Global Automotive Sales 2020 - Top 15 OEMs: Two Chinese & One Indian

manufacturer will secure place among Top 15 Global OEMs by 2020

Source: JD Power Forecasting; Frost & Sullivan Analysis

4.25%

4.27%

4.15%

3.61%

3.61%

3.70%

6.11%

4.62%

3.96%

5.73%

7.9%

6.11%

6.62%

4.67%

8.34%

Light Vehicle Sales of Top 15 OEMs (World), 2010-2020

Apart from leveraging the benefits of JVs with

VW & GM, SAIC focuses on building own bra

nd image in both passenger and commercial

segment.

3.3 Million expected sale of Suzuki Motors will

aid Volkswagen group to be Number One

OEM globally by 2020

Toyota will secure number two position speci

fically through improving market share in em

erging economies like China and India.

CAGR Million Units

Fiat & Chrysler's induvidual expertise built acr

oss three continents to support a one joint gro

wth

BMW’s vision to reach 2 Million mark is supp

orted by product portfolio expansion and impr

oving market share in countries like China & I

ndia.

94

Average vehicle production per platform is expected to more than double by

2020 from over 0.24 Million units in 2010

Tata followed by Daimler and Fiat-Chrysler groups are expected to share top honours for increased pr

oduction per platform in 2020.

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Platform Strategy: Average Vehicle Production Per Platform (World), 2010 and 2020

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Vol

ksw

agen

Gro

up

Toyo

ta G

roup

Rena

ult-

Nis

san

Gro

up

Gen

eral

Mot

ors

Gro

up

Hyu

ndai

Gro

up

Ford

Gro

up

Fiat

-Chr

ysle

r Gro

up

PSA

Gro

up

Tata

Gro

up

BMW

Gro

up

Dai

mle

r G

roup

Gee

ly G

roup

Veh

icle

Pro

duct

ion

(‘000

)

2010 2020

95

Global Powertrain Mix by Fuels – Pure Electric propulsion to account for about 2

-3% by 2018 - Alternative fuels to account for about 9-11%

100-103 Million

2018

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

W.

Europe

NA Japan China Latin

America

India Russia Korea Middle

East

Million

s

Gasoline Diesel Alternative Fuels Electric

Powertrain Sales Mix (World), 2018 [PVs and LCVs]

Source: Frost & Sullivan

29-31%

18-20%

50-52%

1% 81-83%

4-6%

7-9%

5-7%

35-37%

46-48%

10-11%

6-8%

84-86%

3-4% 10%

2%

93-95%

4-6%

1%

45-47%

1%

45-47% 73-75%

57-59%

1%

7-8%

68-70%

18-20%

9-11 %

•Alternative Fuels includes LPG, CNG and high Biofuel compliant vehicles. Low Biofuel compliant engines [example <E25 and <B10] are included under conventional gasoline and Diesel. •Electric is pure electric propulsion only. Hybrids are included in the conventional Diesel and gasoline.

18-02%

2-3%

1.1%

8-10%

74-76%

1-2% 8-9%

16-17% 1-2%

27-29% 13-15%

96

Technology Snapshot by 2020: Legislation Driven Technologies like DPF+SCR, e-Call,

ESC and Tire Pressure Monitoring Systems are Expected to Have a High Penetration in EU

A – Technologies that have attained over 70% pene

tration rate in 20 years since introduction and

are driven by legislation

B – Technologies that have only reached 20-60% p

enetration rate in 20 years since introduction

C – Technologies that have reached less than 20%

penetration rate in 20 years since introduction

Penetration

_

+

Lane Departure Warning (LDW) 6 - 10%

Blind Spot Detection (BSD) 7 - 10%

Adaptive Cruise Control 8 - 10%

Semi-autonomous Parking Assistance 10 - 15%

EHB + Hybrid braking+ EMB /EWB 10 - 15%

Electric Motors & Li-ion Batteries (EV & Full hybrids) 10 - 15%

Seat - Ventilation (Driver/Passenger) 20.0%

B

C

Active Steering 15 - 20%

DVD 24%

Air Suspension 20 - 25%

Selective Catalytic Reduction 20 - 30%

Occupant Sensing Systems 30 - 35%

DCT + AMTs 25 - 30%

Advanced ESP 30 - 35%

Multi-functional Switches 36%

Turbocharger (% of gasoline) 35 - 40%

Embedded Navigation 40%

VVT (% of gasoline) 40 - 45%

In-vehicle Displays 48%

Passive Hands free 55%

GDI (% of gasoline) 30 - 35%

Whiplash Protection Systems 60 - 70%

Stolen Vehicle Tracking 75%

EPS -> CEPS + PEPS + REPS 80%

MP3/ WMA 90 - 95%

Standard ESP 100%

e-call 80 - 85%

Start –Stop Systems 85%

Tyre Pressure Monitoring System 100% 2020

So

urc

e:

Fro

st

& S

ulliv

an

A

2020 Vision of Global Automotive Industry: Penetration Rate of Key Automotive Technologies (Europe), 2020

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.z.lst.se/eu/Flag_blue2.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.z.lst.se/eu/flaggor.htm&h=200&w=295&sz=9&tbnid=FPPLNDagugwJ:&tbnh=75&tbnw=111&hl=en&start=8&prev=/images?q=european+union&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&r

97

Vehicle in Use 2020 – Car Park: 1.2 Billion personal vehicles on road – Huge

opportunity in Aftermarket

Note: Asia - China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, New Zealand

Eastern Europe – Bulgaria, Bosnia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine

North America - Canada, Mexico, USA

South America - Argentina, Brazil,

Western Europe - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

Note: Vehicle Parc in Million Units Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010 Source : JD Powers / Frost & Sullivan

896 Million VIO 2010

2020 Vision of Global Automotive Industry : World Personal Vehicle PARC units by 2020 (In Million Units)

Canada 2.3

North America South America Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Other

Other 37.2

India 66.1

Japan 65.14

Australia 15.3

China 202

Russia 50.14

Others 121.25

Turkey 11.8 Poland 19.2

USA

274.6

Mexico 34

Canada 23

NA

32.1%

Brazil 26.8

Argentina 7

Others 48.14

France 34.2

Germany 48.16

Italy 38.9

Spain 24.12

UK 34.58

Western

Europe

23.1%

Eastern Europe

10.2%

SA 3%

Asia

19.4%

Others

12.2%

NA

26.7%

SA 2.7%

Western

Europe

18.4%

Eastern Europe

9.5%

Asia

31%

Others

11.7% Other 51.09

South Africa 8

1.2 Billion VIO 2020


Around the world, around the table

Any other business

Next meeting at Williams F1, Tuesday 19 June at 12:30

Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited

71 Great Peter Street, London SW1P 2BN

www.smmt.co.uk


Thanks for coming, see you again!

International Business Group - SMMT€¦ · International Business Group SMMT 13:30,Tuesday13...

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