INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR IMPACT...

INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT

(FINAL REPORT)

The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of Tourism Development in the Northern Tourist Circuit of Tanzania--CBBIA-IAIA PROGRAM

By

Dr. Godius Kahyarara

Mr. Ignace Mchallo

Centre for Environmental Economics and Development Research

(CEDR)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 3

1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 8

2 METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................... 9

2.1 APPROACH AND SEQUENCING OF ACTIVITIES ........................................................................... 9

SUMMARY/CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................... 10

2.2 MODELING TOURISM VALUE—THE CHOICE MODEL ............................................................. 10 2.2.1 DESIGN OF CHOICE EXPERIMENT AND SAMPLING .................................................................. 11 2.2.2 SAMPLING DESIGN AND TECHNIQUES .......................................................................................... 11

3 TOURISM DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT IN TANZANIA................................. 12

3.1 THE ROLE OF TOURISM AND IN TANZANIAN ECONOMY AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPLICATION......................................................................................................................................... 12

4 DESCRIPTION OF THE NORTHERN CIRCUIT OF TOURISM IN TANZANIA. ............ 15

4.1 THE DYNAMICS OF ENVIRONMENT IN TOURISM DEVELOPMENT PLANS IN TANZANIA ........... 23 4.2 TOURIST DEVELOPMENT PLAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE NATIONAL MASTER PLAN OF TOURISM

DEVELOPMENT ..................................................................................................................................... 25 4.3 THE DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT PLANS FOR ALL MAJOR DISTRICTS IN THE NORTHERN CIRCUIT26 4.4 EVIDENCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE STUDY AREA ............................................ 26

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF TOURIST RELATED DEVELOPMENT PLANS ................. 29

4.5 STRATEGIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT MATRIX FOR THE EXISTING PROJECTS .............................. 29 4.6 STRATEGIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT MATRIX FOR THE NEW PROJECTS...................................... 30

5 ECONOMIC VALUE OF TOURIST ATTRACTION SITES IN THE NORTHERN

CIRCUIT AND THE WILLINGNESS OF THE TOURISTS TO PARTICIPATE IN A SCHEME

TO ENSURE SUSTAINABLE TOURISM IN THE NORTHERN CIRCUIT.................................. 30

5.1 CHOICE EXPERIMENT ...................................................................................................... 31 5.2 CONTINGENT VALUATION METHOD (CVM)............................................................... 34 5.3 RESULTS OF VALUATION BASED ON THE WILLINGNESS TO PAY............................................... 37

6 RECOMMENDED MANAGEMENT PLANS FOR IMPACT MITIGATION IN THE

NORTHERN CIRCUIT. ........................................................................................................................ 37

6.1 MANAGEMENT OF TOURISM ........................................................................................... 38

6.2 MONITORING................................................................................................................................. 38

6.3 COMPLIANCE MECHANISMS.................................................................................................... 39

7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION .............................................................................................. 39

REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................ 41

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background

The development of tourism is often a very important strategy for fostering economic growth in

developing countries. However, reasonable success in this sector will be conditional on the fact

that any success gained through the development of the sector should be based on sustainable

tourism. In Tanzania tourism generates various economic benefits, including increased foreign

exchange earnings, employment, income, and government revenues. Tourism is currently

among the most important industries in Tanzania, accounting for 40% of total exports in

1998/99 and 12% of GDP in 2001 (World Bank/MIGA, 2002). In the northern part of the

country, where the principle tourism attractions such as Mount Kilimanjaro and the Serengeti

are found, the industry plays a particularly focal role in the local and regional economy. After

catastrophic collapse of Tanzanian economy during the 1980s, the 1990s have seen the reversal.

Tanzania economy has shown impressive growth record after 1990s.

Tourism is one of the fastest growing sectors that largely accounts for such growth. For

instance, community-based tourism (CBT) and ecotourism activities in northern Tanzania have

grown rapidly over the past decade. The spectacular and persistent growth in Tanzania tourism

suggests that tourism is a potential profitable sector among other resources in such a way that

economic, social and aesthetic needs of Tanzania will be fulfilled with maintaining cultural

integrity, essential ecological processes, biological diversity, and life support systems.

However, large-scale or mass tourism development may generate various environmental

problems, such as loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, water pollution, and landscape degradation.

However, the feedback from the international markets is that the Northern Wildlife Area is

becoming overcrowded, that the limits of acceptable use are being reached. New areas and new

tourism products must be developed if the industry is to expand.

Therefore sustainable tourism in Tanzania should: contribute to the conservation of

biodiversity and cultural diversity; contribute to the well being of local communities and

indigenous people; include an interpretation/learning experience; involve responsible action on

the part of tourists and tourism industry; be appropriate in scale; require the lowest possible

consumption of non-renewable resources; respect physical and social carrying capacities;

involve minimal repatriation of earned revenue; be locally owned and operated (through local

participation, ownership and business opportunities, particularly for rural people). While

tourism development can procure economic benefits, it can also negatively impact natural

environments and socio-cultural conditions. Tourism can change traditional lifestyles and

culture as a result of expanded income distribution due to increases in the number of tourists

and capital flow. It has been suggested that tourism leads to less environmental destruction than

some other sectors, such as industry. In cases where the natural environment is used as the

tourism resource, i.e., in ecotourism, environmental conservation may be promoted.

Hence, to assist the government in achieving sustainable tourist sector development this

project undertook strategic impact assessment on the tourist development plans in the Northern

Circuit of Tanzania. In particular, we evaluate the likely environmental impacts of tourist

projects proposed in the tourism sector development plans. The study anticipate that the

Strategic environmental assessment undertaken here will help the Tanzania governments to

assess environmental impacts of proposed tourist development policies, plans and programs in

various parts of Tanzania. This is from the fact that strategic impact assessment enables policy-

makers to promote public participation in broad environmental policy-making, identify and

predict cumulative impacts of broad governmental programs and take this information early

into account in policy-making. Tanzania’s Integrated Tourism Master Plan advocates

diversification of the tourism product in the northern part of the country onto community lands

in areas such as Lake Natron (TDP, 2002). The Wildlife Policy of Tanzania advocates

“Locating future major tourist developments outside PAs [protected areas] in order to reduce

negative impacts and enhance benefit sharing with local communities” (MNRT, 1998).

The Strategic Environmental Assessment Process

A Strategic Environmental Assessment was carried out to understand the likely environmental

and social impacts of the tourist sector development plans in the aforementioned sections. In

particular, we achieved that by comparing the current environmental, social and economic

baseline and likely trends of the tourism sector development against sustainability objectives as

mentioned in the national environmental management framework. Economic valuation of the

potential sites and current tourist attractions was undertaken to assess the economic benefit of

conserving these sites. In conducting this study, we reviewed development plans of the districts

along with the overall national objective of tourism development in this area, as highlighted in

the national tourist master plan. In all these development documents it is evident that

development of tourism is an important strategy for economic improvement, providing a

number of economic benefits, such as increases in foreign exchange earnings, employment,

income, and government revenues. The core of the Tourism Master Plan strategy of Tanzania is

to develop an integrated tourism product that is capable of attracting a low volume, high yield

segment of the international tourism market to spend their entire holiday in Tanzania. The

strategy argues that Tanzania must move away from 'bumbling along' much as before with a

modest increase in the accommodation stock to a large-scale growth in its tourist industry. This

growth is viewed as critical to compensate for losses in the ailing agriculture and mining

sectors. Besides, there are district level plans that have tourism sector development has

potential growth sector. For instance some of the districts in the Northern Circuit have

developed development plans for tourism development and projects. Such district development

plans will form an important tool for analyzing the impact assessment of tourism.

The Main Findings from the Report are:

• There are particular areas within Northern Circuit where tourist development is causing

serious environmental degradation and where the situation is extremely precarious. Many

environmental pressures, for example on hunting blocks and road networks, are close to levels

at which irreversible damage could occur. Further pressures could tip the balance resulting in

long term environment damage. There are a few very popular destinations that are very

overcrowded.

• There is willingness for the tourists to contribute towards a sustainable tourism development.

But this willingness does exist, especially if other alternative sites offer expected services.

However we also concluded that a scheme focusing on tourists demand alone will not be

sufficient to ensure sustainable tourist development in the Northern Circuit of Tanzania.

• Tourism is currently providing considerable economic benefits to Northern Circuit. However,

these economic benefits are far smaller than what the economic value of the tourist resources

estimated by this study. Also, the loss of earnings from unsustainable tourist related activities

leaves the Northern Circuit's economy on suboptimal economic benefits from tourism.

• The tourist attractions in the northern circuit are increasingly overcrowded especially during

the peak seasons. The potential for improving alternative sites exist but there is a need for

rehabilitation and improvement of the existing infrastructure. Hence tour operators are under

pressure to diversify their products

• There is a problem of enforceability of the already existing guidelines on good practice for

sustainable tourist development in the Northern Circuit. Much of the policy, legislation and

regulation needed to ensure good practice already exist on paper. For instance, the national

tourist masterplan stresses on the need to diversify and develop tourist activities outside the

traditional areas. But expansion has so far concentrated on the existing structures.

Conclusions and Recommendations:

A precautionary approach to future tourism development in Northern Circuit is required: that is,

to give weight to maximising the benefits and safeguarding advantages Northern Circuit

currently has, given the resources and constraints it possesses, and avoiding any action which

could cause serious environmental harm or create further social tension. Accordingly we

recommend the following direction for tourism in Northern Circuit:

- Set growth objectives and targets for tourism in terms of benefits to Northern Circuit

rather than gross volume of traded activity, and to treat (and evaluate) expansion in tourism

activity as a means to increase the benefits for Northern Circuit not an end in itself.

- Concentrate support for those kinds of tourism that put more into local economies

(have lower leakage), have less damaging concentrations of environmental pressure and attract

visitors with stronger motivations to come to Northern Circuit. For example, ecotourism,

community-based tourism and non-‘package’ travellers. This requires a diversion of funds and

incentives to promote and develop these kinds of tourism.

- Establish effective ‘bottom up’ planning of tourism at districts and regional level, and

only permit tourism developments which are approved through such a process. A prerequisite

for this would be thorough building of the capacity of local communities to understand the

options available to them.

- Design and successfully implement programs to substantially reduce economic leakage

from resort based tourism. A prerequisite for this would be a rigorous study establishing what

the real current position is over economic leakage from different kinds of tourism activities in

Northern Circuit.

The full implementation of institutional and regulatory frameworks for environmental

assessment and management, including capacity building and enforcement is a prerequisite for

tourism expansion to be sustainable. Impact assessments therefore must guide tourism

development, and a fully effective system for enforcing their conclusions must be in place.

Accordingly we recommend:

- The Government of Tanzania must implement and enforce the environmental policy,

assessment and management framework which already largely exists‘ on paper’.

- Subject to management plans of various Parks Authorities to Strategic Environmental

Assessment

- Many of the detailed policies and proposals in the Tourist Development Plans will help

deliver sustainable tourism and should therefore be fully implemented.

-Universal standards for minimizing environmental impacts should be set which all

developments must comply with unless a properly specified EIA identifies any ‘headroom’ for

impacts.

- An Environmental Fund should be established from user fees from visitors.

By following the above guidelines Northern Circuit will be able to develop tourism at a pace

and scale more in line with the resources and constraints that exist within the country and which

will bring long lasting benefits to the country.

1 INTRODUCTION

In this project, we set out to undertake Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (SEA) of

tourism development projects in the Northern Tourist Circuit of Tanzania. In particular, we

assessed the likely environmental and social impacts of the Tourism development plans in the

Northern Circuit of Tanzania. Throughout the conduct of this survey we maintained that

sustainable tourism in Tanzania should: contribute to the conservation of biodiversity and

cultural diversity; contribute to the well being of local communities and indigenous people;

include an interpretation/learning experience; involve responsible action on the part of tourists

and tourism industry; be appropriate in scale; require the lowest possible consumption of non-

renewable resources; respect physical and social carrying capacities; involve minimal

repatriation of earned revenue; be locally owned and operated (through local participation,

ownership and business opportunities, particularly for rural people).

During the course of the assessment our study also maintained that while tourism

development can procure economic benefits, it can also negatively impact natural environments

and socio-cultural conditions. Tourism can change traditional lifestyles and culture as a result

of expanded income distribution due to increases in the number of tourists and capital flow. It

has been suggested that tourism leads to less environmental destruction than some other sectors,

such as industry. In cases where the natural environment is used as the tourism resource, i.e., in

ecotourism, environmental conservation may be promoted. However, large-scale or mass

tourism development may generate various environmental problems, such as soil erosion, water

pollution, and landscape degradation.

We achieved this by comparing the current environmental, social and economic

baseline and likely trends under the tourism development plans against sustainability

objectives. More specifically; (i) we investigated whether there are particular areas within the

Northern Circuit of Tanzania where tourist development is causing serious environmental

degradation (ii) we evaluated the economic benefits of Tourism development projects in the

Northern Circuit (iii) we advised on the appropriate approach to future tourism development in

the Northern Circuit of Tanzania and (iv) we assessed the institutional and regulatory

frameworks for environmental assessment and management, including capacity building and

enforcement for tourism expansion to be sustainable in this area. (v) We studied the general

management plans of the districts within the study area.

(vi) We studied whether development undertakings in the protected area has been

subjected to environmental assessments

To fulfill the project overall objectives, we focused our attention on three specific

objectives: (i) To carry out strategic environmental impact assessment in three districts within

the Northern Tourist Circuit. (ii) To identify and value the environmental services in the form

of tourism in the study area. (iii) To evaluate the potential for application of the strategic

environmental impact assessment in Tanzania. Our anticipation is that, the SEA will allow an

assessment to be made of whether or not such tourism development plans are sustainable.

Besides, we used strategic environmental assessment as a tool for integrating environmental

considerations into decision-making by ensuring that significant environmental effects of

tourist development plans in the Northern Circuit of Tanzania are taken into account.

2 METHODOLOGY

2.1 Approach and Sequencing of Activities

The first step of implementing the strategic impact assessment in the Northern Circuit of

Tourism in Tanzania was to identify the main aspects of the tourism development plans of

Tanzania which directly or indirectly refers to the Development of Northern Circuit. Our

approach also encompassed an examination of other related plans and strategies, which may

have a bearing on the tourism development in this area. In carrying out this strategic impact

assessment, we evaluated the likely environmental impacts of a proposed tourist projects in the

Northern Circuit of Tanzania, taking into account inter -related socio-economic, cultural and

human health impacts, both beneficial and adverse. Our assessment was done trough five steps

namely screening, scoping, impact assessment, identification and recommendation of the

mitigation measure, proposals on monitoring and evaluation. Based on our meetings with the

stakeholders and our experience in the study area the following development plans were key in

our investigations. In order to undertake the Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment we

developed and assessed the principal aims of the tourist Plans and the policies and objectives,

which relate to the Key Strategic Issues as stipulated in such plans. Besides we develop and

assess the strategic environmental aims of such plans in the context of the existing Tourist

development plans with a particular focus on the Northern Circuit. Finally we will summarize

the assessment by combining the quantifying the negativity, uncertainty, neutrality and

positivist of each of these plans. Besides, we will collect information on the likely significant

effects on the environment of implementing the tourist development plan”. This information

will provide the means whereby the impact on the environment of tourism programs and

policies can be assessed. In collecting information, we will ensure acquisition of information

whereby:

• Alternative policies can be assessed

• Adverse effects of the development plans can be minimized.

• Positive benefits of Tourism development projects can be evaluated.

At the end of the analysis we intend to come up with the following table indicating the degree

of the effect of the tourism development plans in our study area:

Summary/Conclusions

E(i) E(ii) E(iii) E(iv) E(v) E(vi)

Negative

Uncertain

Neutral

Pos

2.2 Modeling Tourism Value—The Choice Model

Apart from the strategic impact assessment of the tourist projects in the Northern Circuit, we

will undertake the economic valuation of the benefits of such projects. In this respect, we intend

to use the Choice Model/Experiment. Choice experiments, along with the, by now, well-known

contingent valuation method, are very important tools for valuing non-market goods and the

results are used in both cost-benefit analyses and litigations related to damage assessments.

This approach has its roots in Lancaster's characteristics theory of value, in random utility

theory and in experimental design. These choice pairs are designed so as to allow efficient

statistical estimation of the underlying utility function, and to minimize required sample size.

Choice experiments have important advantages over other environmental valuation methods,

such as contingent valuation and travel cost-type models. In a choice experiment, tourists are

given a hypothetical setting and asked to choose their preferred alternative among several

alternatives in a choice set, and they are usually asked to perform a sequence of such choices.

Each alternative is described by a number of attributes or characteristics of the tourist location.

A monetary value is included as one of the attributes, along with other attributes of importance,

when describing the profile of the alternative presented. Applications of the choice model to

environmental issues especially in developing countries in Africa South of the Sahara have so

far been relatively limited. Therefore, by use of choice experiments this study allows us to

perform a convergent validity test on the choice experiment estimates of willingness to pay, in a

typical developing country of Tanzania.

2.2.1 Design of Choice Experiment and Sampling

There are four steps involved in the design of a choice experiment: (i) definition of attributes,

attribute levels and customization, (ii) experimental design, (iii) experimental context and

questionnaire development and (iv) choice of sample and sampling strategy. A design is

developed in two steps: (i) obtaining the optimal combinations of attributes and attribute levels

to be included in the experiment and (ii) combining those profiles into choice sets. A starting

point is a full factorial design, which is a design that contains all possible combinations of the

attribute levels that characterize the different alternatives.

2.2.2 Sampling Design and Techniques

The choice of survey population obviously depends on the objective of the survey. Given the

survey population, a sampling strategy has to be determined. Possible strategies include a

simple random sample, a stratified random sample or a choice-based sample. A simple random

sample is generally a reasonable choice. One reason for choosing a more specific sampling

method may be the existence of a relatively small but important sub- group which is of

particular interest to the study. Another reason may be to increase the precision of the estimates

for a particular sub- group. In practice the selection of sample strategy and sample size is also

largely dependent on the budget available for the survey.

3 TOURISM DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT IN TANZANIA

In this section we briefly discuss the structure of the tourist industry its current status and the

relative importance of the Northern Circuit in Tourist Industry of Tanzania. Furthermore we

explain the potential environmental problems of tourism and set out plans for undertaking SEA

in the study area.

3.1 The Role of Tourism and in Tanzanian Economy and its Environmental

Implication.

Tourism is a very important industry in the whole Tanzania and especially so in Arusha region.

The role of tourism in the economy includes the followings:- It creates jobs, It generates hard

currency (foreign exchange), It generates tax revenue for the government, It is attractive for

services, small and medium sized enterprises, consequently, can foster a private enterprise

economy, It has strong linkages to other sectors, It has considerable potential for expansion and

increased value added. Economic statistics indicate that tourism sector has substantial role in

the overall Tanzanian economy. The sector has also benefited from on going economic reforms

as it looks vibrant and among the fastest growing sectors in Tanzania, generating substantial

economic benefits to the country. Statistics (see for example economic survey, 2005) shows

that the sector accounts for over 40% of total foreign exchange earnings from the export of

goods and services.

The number of tourists arriving in Tanzania increased from 295,312 in 1995 to 576,000

in 2003. Income realized also shows an improvement from US$ 259.4 million in 1995 to US$

725 million in 2001 (URT, 2002d) and to US$ 731 million in 2003. Tourist earnings have

picked up and show consistent growth from 1986, partly due to a higher number of tourists

visiting the country. Other factors are an increase in private tour operators and agents, better

advertising of Tanzanian tourist attractions abroad and a greater capacity to cater for more

tourists (Kulindwa et al. 2001). Between 1995 and 2001, about 59% of the visitors came to

Tanzania for leisure, recreation and holidays compared to those who came for conferences,

professionals and others (i.e. 41%). This category of visitors includes groups that could indulge

in tourist activities that yield more revenue. Tourist hunting for instance is one of the activities

with a higher value compared with the rest. Significant income came from tourist hunting

where the average annual income is about US$ 10 million, although more could actually be

realized had this component of the sector been rationalized and well managed.

TABLE 1 NUMBER OF TOURISTS AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EARNINGS: 1990-2003

Year

Number of Tourists

% Change Foreign exchange earnings (US $ mil.)

% Change

1990 153000 - 65.00 -

1991 186800 22.1 94.73 45.7

1992 201744 8.0 120.04 26.7

1993 230166 14.1 146.84 22.3

1994 261595 13.7 192.10 30.8

1995 293834 12.3 258.14 34.4

1996 326192 11.0 322.00 24.7

1997 360000 10.4 392.41 21.9

1998 482331 34.0 570.00 45.3

1999 628188 30.2 733.30 28.6

2000 501668 -20.1 739.10 0.8

2001 525122 4.7 725.00 -1.9

2002 575000 9.5 730.00 0.7

2003 576000 0.2 731.00 0.1

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

International tourism is largely concentrated in the Northern Wildlife Area, encompassing Lake

Manyara, the Serengeti, the Ngorongoro Conservation Area and Mt. Kilimanjaro. These

internationally known attractions are the industry’s ‘honey pots’ and have constituted the

backbone of Tanzania tourism for many years. However, the feedback from the international

markets is that the Northern Wildlife Area is becoming overcrowded, that the limits of

acceptable use are being reached. New areas and new tourism products must be developed if

the industry is to expand. Tanzania has a wealth of natural, cultural and man-made attractions

in all parts of the country which are untapped from the standpoint of tourism development.

Although the potential is there, not all areas can be developed in the foreseeable future because

of problems of inadequate access, poor infrastructure and lack of utilities. Figure 1 above shows

the flow of tourists into Tanzania by destinations. From this map it is evident that the Northern

Circuit is the major destination of Tourists.

Figure 1: Origin and destinations of the tourist flows into Tanzania.

As mentioned above, this study concentrates in the northern circuit of tourism in Tanzania. The

national master plan of tourism describes the northern circuit in detail. The Northern Circuit,

which stretches from Lake Victoria in the west to Tanga in the east, comprises three discrete

groups of attractions. All of these attractions are potential investment areas and have recently

attracted a substantial investment pressure from both local and foreign investors.

The first group of attractions in this northern circuit is the already well-established wildlife

areas of the Serengeti, Lake Manyara and Tarangire National Parks and the Ngorongoro

Conservation Area (including Olduvai Gorge, an archaeological site of great importance).

4 DESCRIPTION OF THE NORTHERN CIRCUIT OF TOURISM IN

TANZANIA.

In this section we describe the study area where this project is focused. The area is within the

Northern Circuit of Tourism of Tanzania, particularly the Arusha region. The Northern Circuit,

which stretches from Lake Victoria in the west to Tanga in the east, comprises three discrete

groups of attractions. The first group of attractions is the already well-established wildlife areas

of the Serengeti, Lake Manyara and Tarangire National Parks and the Ngorongoro

Conservation Area (including Olduvai Gorge, an archaeological site of great importance). This

group of attractions has been the backbone of Tanzanian tourism over many years and

represents the ‘honey-pots’ of the industry. However, as outlined earlier, the feedback from the

market is that the Serengeti and Ngorongoro are becoming crowded, indicating that from the

market perspective, the limits of acceptable use are being reached.

Figure 2 Map of Districts of Arusha Region

Although tourism in northern Tanzania remains primarily focused on conventional destinations

within state-managed National Parks, as the industry grows and pressures to diversify increase

there is a growing demand for CBT in collaboration with local communities. CBT is now

widely practiced throughout northern Tanzania in areas such as Loliondo Division of

Ngorongoro District, and Monduli, Simanjiro, Babati, Mbulu, and Kiteto Districts. In many

cases these activities occur on community lands adjacent to National Parks, but in others they

occur in more remote areas far from protected area boundaries. These developments hold

important implications for rural development and poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation,

and national economic growth. The income from tourism represents a growing source of

economic diversification for rural communities and an actual or potentially important tool in

poverty alleviation efforts. At the same time, the continued growth of the overall tourism

industry requires product diversification in order to increase the northern circuit’s capacity and

improve visitor experience.

Figure 3: Total Revenue Collection of Tourist Receipts Tanzania and Arusha

Lake Manyara National Park

Lake Manyara is a sanctuary to elusive populations of buffalo, hippo, giraffe, impala, zebra and

the most famous residents-tree climbing lions. Elephants feed off fallen fruit while bushbuck,

waterbuck, baboons, hardvark, civet, leopard as well as black rhinos make their home in the

forest. Lake Manyara is a magnet for bird life and a kaleidoscope of different species which can

be found around its shores, including huge flocks of flamingo. The Park is ideal for a day trip

from Arusha town. The tourist season is from June to September and January to February.

Visitors facilities are an hotel, camp sites, an hostel and self-catering "bandas".

Figure 4 Map of Lake Manyara and Ngorongoro

Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NGA)

The Ngorongoro Conservation Area is a huge area containing active volcanoes, mountain and

archaeological sites, rolling plains, forests, lakes, dunes and of course, Ngorongoro Crater and

Olduvai George. The view of Ngorongoro crater is sensational. On the crater floor, grassland

blends into swamps, lakes, rivers, wood land and mountain-all a haven for wildlife, including

the densest predator population in Africa. The crater is home to up to 25,000 large mammals

mainly grazers. The crater elephants are strange, mainly bulls. The birdslife in the crater is

largely seasonal. In the northern, remote part of the NCA are Olmoti and Empakasi craters, lake

Natron (known to breeding ground for East Africa's lesser flamingoes) and Oldonyo lengai

mountain. Visitors facilities include luxury lodges and campsites such as Ngorongoro Wildlife

Lodge, Ndutu Lodge and Conservation Corporation (East Africa).

Olduvai Gorge:

Olduvai is the site of some of the most important fossil humanoid finds of all time-the

"Nutcracker man" or Australopithcus blisei who lived 175 million years ago. There is a small

informative museum located at the visitor's centre. The gorge is a treasure trove of

archeological sites filled with fossils, settlement remains and stone artifacts. Lecture tours are

offered. Visitor facilities are a camp site.

Special People

The Tindiga and Hadzabe, of Mbulu district, the Sonjo of Ngorongoro district and the Ndorobo

of Kiteto district form a special group with special needs. These people until very recently lived

away out of contact with other people in pursuit of a special life style. They lived until very

recently on honey, hunting and the gathering of wild fruits and roots. They have now been

resettled in villages of their own choice where they are encouraged to settle down in preference

to a migratory life. They are being taught agricultural skills and livestock keeping. This is

because the government could not quarantee these people the continuation of their life style as

more and still more land became settled by sedentary people and forests dwindled. These

people need encouragement to stay in their new life and in settlements. They are a

disadvantaged group who need special attention otherwise they face marginalization.

Figure 5: The Map showing group of attractions within the Northern Circuit of Tourism in

Tanzania.

The group of tourist attractions indicated in the figure two above has vital role in symbolizing

tourist sector development of Tanzania and over many years they have represented the ‘honey-

pots’ of the industry. However, as outlined earlier, the feedback from the market is that the

Serengeti Ngorongoro are becoming crowded, indicating that from the market perspective, the

limits of acceptable use are being reached. Whether that is true, is a question this study intends

to address. Another major problem is that there is mushrooming of construction of hotels and

tented camps within the parks.

Existing experience have indicated that one of the major problems in this circuit is the road

system. In effect, there is only one road through this vast wildlife area, the road from Makuyuni

to Lobo. The road is a cul-de-sac which leaves the visitor with no option other than to backtrack

along the same route. A more extensive road system that provides at least one large circuit and

a number of smaller circuits off it is the key to using these assets more efficiently and

productively without placing greater pressure on the environment. A further possibility is to

open the crossing at Bologonja, but for a number of reasons, this is impractical for the

foreseeable future. Another possibility relates to land use and the redesignation of game

controlled and communal areas from consumptive to non-consumptive use.

Despite the number of attractions within the northern circuit, so far tourist development

has focused on the first group of attractions within the Arusha region. This trend is what

concerns this study as it implies enormous pressure on a smaller area compared to the great

potential existing in the whole area of the Northern Circuit. In Arusha region it is estimated that

tourism and wildlife account for about 20% of regional GDP. Hence, it ranks third in

importance after agriculture and livestock. The region receives about 80% of all tourists visiting

Tanzania. This is due to the fact that Arusha region has a vast scenic countryside endowed with

rich flora and fauna, charming people, excellent climate and other tourist attractions as

explained here under. Arusha region is endowed with many and fairly large wildlife

conservation areas which support a diversity of wild animal species. These include Ngorongoro

Conservation Area, National Parks such as Manyara, Tarangire, Arusha (Momela) and part of

Serengeti National Park. Moreover, there are more than 13 Game controlled areas in the region.

All these attractions and resources form investment opportunities in various areas, such as: tour

operation, camping sites, establishment, operation of tourist hotels, curio shops, tourist and

local hunting, animal and lizards capturing etc.

There are three primary advantages that promote the development of tourism in the

Northern Circuit of Tanzania: its location, its abundant natural resources, and its cultural

resources. The Northern Circuit is located near popular tourist destinations such as the

Kilimanjaro Mountain which is the highest mountain the Africa and second highest in the

World, Ngorongoro Crater which is the most spectacular tourist feature in Africa, Olduvai

George etc. Travel agencies can easily provide package tours that combine these features with

the Northern Circuit. In addition, The Northern Circuit offers attractive natural environments

such as abundant wildlife, including lions, elephants, tigers, giraffes and others. The Northern

Circuit is, moreover, a multi-ethnic nation, and a number of minorities live in the northern part

of the country. This circuit is home to World Heritage Sites: the old vai george.

It has excellent tourist infracture and is next door to a key tourist receiving country

which Arusha complements as shown below:-

a) Arusha Town:

Arusha the capital town of the region, is well established as tourist capital of the Northern

Tourist Circuit with an impressive array of facilities. These facilities include a fully equipped

conference centre (AICC), hotel facilities (over 2000 beds) an International Airport (KIA)

which is only half an hour away by car. Also Arusha town is located exactly half way between

Cape Town and cairo and has a lot to offer. Activities include challenging Mount Meru climbs,

boating on Lake Duluti, a Museum, snake parks, shopping in the curio shops, bazaars and

cultural heritage centres etc.

b) Arusha National Park

The park has three district zones: A distinctive crater (often described as a mini-Ngorongoro),

the Momela lakes which are fed by underground streams and Mount Meru which is one of the

most rewarding mountains to climb in Africa. Animals here

include: buffalo, elephants, hippo, giraffe, zebra, a variety of antelopes, blue, black and white

monkey, leopard and hyena.Visitors facilities are camp sites, mountains huts, rest houses and

the Momela Lodge.

c) Tarangire National Park

This park has a permanent supply of water so that during the dry season the animal population

here rivals that of Serengeti with wildebeest, zebra, eland, elephant, hartebeest, buffalo,

gerenuk, fringe eared cryx and flocks of birds of many different species. Prime game viewing

months are between September and December. Visitors facilities are a luxury tented lodge and

camp sites.

d) Lake Manyara National Park

Lake Manyara is a sanctuary to elusive populations of buffalo, hippo, giraffe, impala, zebra and

the most famous residents-tree climbing lions. Elephants feed off fallen fruit while bushbuck,

waterbuck, baboons, hardvark, civet, lepard as well as black rhinos make their home in the

forest. Lake Manyara is a magnet for bird life and a kaleidoscope of different species which can

be found around its shores, including huge flocks of flamingo. The Park is ideal for a day trip

from Arusha town. The tourist season is from June to September and January to February.

Visitors facilities are an hotel, camp sites, an hostel and self-catering "bandas".

e) Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NGA)

The Ngorongoro Conservation Area is a huge area containing active volcanoes, mountain and

archaeological sites, rolling plains, forests, lakes, dunes and of course, Ngorongoro Crater and

Olduvai George. The view of Ngorongoro crater is sensational. On the crater floor, grassland

blends into swamps, lakes, rivers, wood land and mountain-all a haven for wildlife, including

the densest predator population in Africa. The crater is home to up to 25,000 large mammals

mainly grazers. The crater elephants are strange, mainly bulls. The birdslife in the crater is

largely seasonal. In the northern, remote part of the NCA are Olmoti and Empakasi craters, lake

natron (known to breeding ground for East Africa's flamingoes) and Oldonyo lengai mountain.

Visitors facilities include luxury lodges and campsites such as Ngorongoro Wildlife Lodge,

There is a small informative museum located at the visitor's centre. The gorge is a treasure

trove of archeological sites filled with fossils, settlement remains and stone artifacts. Lecture

tours are offered. Visitor facilities are a camp site.

4.1 The Dynamics of Environment in Tourism Development Plans in Tanzania

Its is now clear that a number of initiatives have been taken by the government of Tanzania to:

develop national strategies or master plans for sustainable development of tourism develop

appropriate regulatory mechanisms and tools such as, environmental assessment, development

of building regulations and of environmental standards for tourism create terrestrial and marine

protected areas support voluntary initiatives by the tourism industry. However, just like in any

other country, tourism development in Tanzania is likely to put pressure on natural resources

when it increases consumption in areas where resources are already scarce. In the Northern

Circuit for example, the National Parks are increasingly crowded and operators under

increasing pressure to diversify their product. This trend is shown in table 2.2 below.

TABLE 2 NUMBERS OF VISITS TO NATIONAL PARKS TANZANIA

MAINLAND, 1990-2002

National Park

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Serengeti 59,564 78,151 90,601 91,354 95,022 104,672 110,334 116,993 123,652 202,858 309,517 335,723 378,218

Manyara 55,152 54,469 67,135 64,601 66,242 56,825 58,780 60,735 62,690 73,820 85,775 96,402 120,470

Ngorongoro 116,188 125,456 122,842 159,194 160,085 172,091 178,020 185,468 192,917 200,800 208,249 237,414 297,797

Arusha 12,964 12,126 14,515 17,063 18,343 22,153 24,276 26,821 29,366 45,880 48,425 59,929 67,075

Mikumi 23,637 20,885 20,417 18,644 21,209 11,843 10,431 7,031 3,630 12,784 10,609 17,215 18,664

Ruaha 5,011 3,683 3,055 3,099 4,416 4,269 5,098 5,683 6,268 10,938 11,523 14,986 18,246

Tarangire 17,698 19,294 27,020 30,320 31,260 44,755 49,880 57,097 64,315 56,724 67,720 72,285 78,967

Kilimanjaro 11,622 11,520 11,408 11,813 52,591 14,468 15,423 16,378 17,333 22,560 33,515 42,960 46,127

Gombe 979 1,357 1,320 1,277 479 430 670 910 1,150 961 2,201 3,221 3,563

Total 302,815 326,941 358,313 395,365 449,627 431,506 452,912 477,116 501,321 627,325 777,534 880,135 1029127

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (Economic Survey)

Visitors to Tarangire National Park increased from 7,290 in 1987/88 to 54,454 by 1996/97

(Otto et al., 1998). With so many more people using limited space, the quality of experience

for many tourists decreases. This is particularly true for high-end foreign tourists from the

United States and Europe, the principle segment of the market that Tanzania is targeting. As a

result of this congestion and a resultant moratorium on new developments within the northern

circuit’s parks, tourism activities have rapidly spread out of Tarangire and other parks and into

neighboring village lands where an exclusive experience remains more available. It is worth

noting that Tourism, especially nature tourism, is closely linked to biodiversity and the

attractions created by a rich and varied environment. It can also cause loss of biodiversity when

land and resources are strained by excessive use, and when impacts on vegetation, wildlife,

mountain, marine and coastal environments and water resources exceed the carrying capacity.

This loss of biodiversity in fact means loss of tourism potential. Besides the negative

impact, there are positive environmental effects of tourism. The quality of the environment,

both natural and man-made, is essential to tourism. It involves many activities that can have

adverse environmental effects. Many of these impacts are linked with the construction of

general infrastructure such as roads and airports, and of tourism facilities, including resorts,

hotels, restaurants, shops, golf courses and marinas. The negative impacts of tourism

development can gradually destroy the environmental resources on which it depends. On the

other hand, tourism has the potential to create beneficial effects on the environment by

contributing to environmental protection and conservation. Despite the fact that, tourist

development projects are backed up with Impact assessment, there is a possibility of such

damages and too often, action is delayed until loss of revenue and cultural and environmental

degradation has occurred. To achieve sustainable tourism preventative approaches must be

adopted. It follows therefore that, in this project we believe, such damage can be avoided if not

irreversible.

4.2 Tourist Development Plan as described in the National Master Plan of Tourism

Development

The core of the Tourism Master Plan strategy of Tanzania is to develop an integrated tourism

product that is capable of attracting a low volume, high yield segment of the international

tourism market to spend their entire holiday in Tanzania. In other words, Tanzania would be

seen as a ‘single destination’ and tourists would not need to include another country in their

holiday plans. The way to achieve this is seen to be to: (i)develop a range of special interest

products to a high standard (ii) develop activity and soft adventure products (iii) develop a

beach resort product (iv) develop a cultural/historical tourism product Tourism product

development will not just simply happen. It has to be stimulated, directed and the activities of

the various tourism enterprises coordinated. This means having the appropriate institutional

framework, legislation and organizational structures in place; having an attractive climate for

enterprise development and investment; having a skilled labour force capable of meeting

international service standards; having a destination campaign to create strong market

awareness; having knowledge and understanding of the market place. The third step is to

establish an action programme to implement the strategy. The primary actions to be undertaken

during the two-year period 2002-2003 are outlined on the following table.

In implementing tourism development programs outlined above, Tourism industry

particularly in northern Tanzania has increasingly diversified. An issue of concern to tourism

planners is not only to sequence the recommended action programs, but also the extent that

tourism programs are implemented in a sustainable way with minimum damage to the

environment. One way to address the later concern has been to undertake environmental impact

assessments. Nonetheless, this raise a question, should the Impact Assessment be undertaken

prior to, or after, the establishment of a tourism product? This is not as simplistic as it appears

at first sight. Because all the action programs are so interlinked, trying to identify the best

sequence is not a realistic goal. No single measure can bring reliable and sustainable tourism

program. In this sense, it is more instructive to view the development of the tourism sector as a

process rather than as a sequence of activities.

Establishing the appropriate mechanism to ensure that each tourism development

project is backed up with Impact Assessment will create the environmental sound climate for

tourism. In this way, it will be possible to account for the potential Environmental Problems of

Tourism Development Projects. This study is one of the attempts to provide a mechanism

through which prompt actions will safeguard the sustainable development of tourism in

Tanzania. Most importantly, the strategic environmental impact assessment considered in this

project could provide the early warning on the on going development programs and propose the

suitable mitigating actions. However, little is known about the environmental effects of these

development plans. We envisage that, the strategic impact assessment undertaken based on

these plans will be an important contribution towards a better understanding of the likely

environmental problems.

4.3 The District Development Plans for all major districts in the Northern Circuit

Some of the districts in the Northern Circuit have developed development plans for tourism

development and projects. Such district development plans will form an important tool for

analyzing the impact assessment of tourism. For instance, Sinya village in Monduli District has

a contract which guarantees it a minimum of 30,000,000 Tsh per year for use of its lands by a

tourism company. Loiborsoit village in Simanjiro District earned $43,000 from a tourism joint

venture between 1994 and 1998 (AWF, 2001). As Community Based Tourism (CBT) has

grown and spread away from areas adjacent to National Parks, so have the amount and

distribution of benefits accessible to local communities in the region increased. For example,

Longido village in Monduli District participates in the Cultural Tourism Programme previously

sponsored and developed by SNV (Netherlands Development Organisation) and the Tanzania

Tourist Board. The number of tourists visiting Longido annually through this programme grew

from only 25 in 1995 to nearly 600 in 2000, when the village earned over $10,000 from fees

paid by visiting companies and individual tourists (Matungwe, 2000). Besides payments to

villages, benefits to CBT accrue to individuals within the community. In Loliondo’s Oloipiri

village, wages paid by luxury camping operators to local guides and watchmen amounted to

$8,938.50 in 2002, over a five-fold increase from $1,760 in 1997.

4.4 Evidences of Environmental Change in the Study Area

Negative impacts from tourism occur when the level of visitor use is greater than the

environment's ability to cope with this use within the acceptable limits of change. Uncontrolled

conventional tourism poses potential threats to many natural areas around the world. It can put

enormous pressure on an area and lead to impacts such as soil erosion, increased pollution,

discharges into the sea, natural habitat loss, increased pressure on endangered species and

heightened vulnerability to forest fires. It often puts a strain on water resources, and it can force

local populations to compete for the use of critical resources. One way of capturing this impact

is through assessing trends in environmental changes.

Matched or repeat fixed-point photography have been used extensively in this study to

provide comparative information directly through an image without having to resort to

statistical analysis and specialized expert knowledge. By using an updated photograph 2, the

study addressed relevant questions about environmental change in specific locations in the

Northern Circuit. When comparing images from two separate time periods we focused on the

significant changes in the density of vegetation and species composition. Other important

questions from a comparison of matched photos were related to histories of environmental

variables, such as rainfall, fire, wildlife and human impacts, thus building a profile of likely

causes of environmental change. This methodology coupled with more focused GIS

information facilitated our understanding of the physical trends in environmental problems in

the study area. Soil, vegetation and socio-economic site surveys also fed backed into the repeat

photo research process in order to achieve more reliable aspects of ecological dynamism and

environmental change in the Northern Circuit. We present an example of previous photo taken

in the area as presented in Map 2..

Figure 6 Map of the Study Area showing matched photos

The other important way of monitoring changes will be through assessing changes in rainfall

over time. During site visit and meetings we found that monthly rainfall data are available for

Lake Manyara National Park (1971-1999), Monduli (1934-1996), Karatu (1939-1995) and the

Selian Airport west of Arusha (1925-1997). Average coefficients of variation (CV) for Lake

Manyara Park (25%), Karatu (32%), Monduli (25%) and Arusha (26%) mask much larger

inter-annual variations, which are more extreme in adjacent arid and semi-arid areas where the

average CV is much higher (>35%).

Figure 7 Rainfall-Karatu and Monduli 4 year running mean

Environmental Impact of Tourist Related Development Plans

In carrying out this strategic impact assessment, we evaluated the likely environmental impacts

of a proposed tourist projects in the Northern Circuit of Tanzania, taking into account inter -

related socio-economic, cultural and human health impacts, both beneficial and adverse. Our

assessment was done trough five steps namely screening, scoping, impact assessment,

identification and recommendation of the mitigation measure, proposals on monitoring and

evaluation. In the first step or screening stage, we determined the type of tourist development

plans in the northern circuit of Tanzania that indeed needs an impact assessment study; In the

second step or scoping stage we identified types of potential impacts that are relevant to assess,

In the third stage we predicted and identified the likely environmental impacts of a proposed

tourist project or and plans taking into account inter -related consequences of the tourist project

proposal, and the socio-economic impacts; In the fourth stage we identified mitigation

measures and lastly we proposed for (appropriate monitoring and evaluation strategy.

4.5 Strategic Impact Assessment Matrix for the Existing Projects

E(i)

Negative

E(ii)

Uncertain

E(iii)

Neutral

E(iv)

Positive

Remarks

Increased number of tourists.

+-0 Revenue has increased but there is congestion

Expansion of tourist facilities and infrastructure

-

Expansion of hunting blocks reduces land for

local inhabitants

Enhanced businesses, market increase.

+

There is increase in employment and

income

Impacts on main ecosystems and conservation sites.

-

The ecosystem is very fragile and is exposed

to degradation

4.6 Strategic Impact Assessment Matrix for the New Projects

From the matrix above it is easier to see that increased number of tourist is perceived bt

stakeholders to have neutral effect. This is due to the fact that although there is a rise in revenue

from tourism caused by the increase in the number of tourists, the adverse effects of over

expansion eats up the benefit. Expansion of tourist infrastructure and facilities is viewed to

have negative outcome. This was mainly attributed to pressure on land use caused by increased

hunting, site viewing and transport needs. On the other hand, enhanced business and market

increase is regarded as a positive effect in the study area. This is partly due to considerable

increase in employment. As expected the impact on main ecosystem and conservation sites is

negative.

5 Economic Value of Tourist Attraction Sites in the Northern

Circuit and the Willingness of the Tourists to Participate in a scheme

to Ensure Sustainable Tourism in the Northern Circuit

In addition to the Strategic Impact assessment we estimated the total economic value of the

tourist sites. In particular, we focused on the consumers of tourist services and assess their role

in ensuring sustainable tourist management. A Choice model was conducted to determine

tourists' willingness to participate in promoting sustainable tourism in the Northern Circuit of

Tanzania. In applying the choice mode we evaluated the circumstances necessary to make them

reduce either financial expenditure or time spent in already overcrowded tourist attractions in

the northern circuit. It was anticipated that the value of the sites derived in this way will give an

indication of the total cost of the environmental impacts to the society. On other hands it would

reveal how much is roughly a loss from not addressing the adverse effects of the tourist related

projects in the area. This exercise was also important, in identifying potential new tourist

attractions. We relied primarily on the contingent valuation method (CVM) to evaluate tourism

resources.

Sampling

The choice model questions were given to a random sample of tourists. We conducted our

survey through personal interviews at Kilimanjaro international Airport, Impala and Mount

Meru hotels and at tour operators stations. Our final sample coverage had 200 people and each

respondent was subject to the choice experiment six times; therefore, the total sample size was

1200.

5.1 CHOICE EXPERIMENT

Methods

A choice experiment (CE) is a stated preference technique, meaning that respondents are asked

to evaluate hypothetical goods or scenarios. Respondents are presented with

a choice set of alternative scenarios and asked which alternative they prefer. These alternatives

are described by a number of attributes, which have multiple levels that differ in each

alternative. Usually, choice experiments are conducted to derive a monetary value of a certain

(public) good, and therefore one of the attributes is often a

monetary cost. For instance, a certain nature park could be described by a number of attributes

and the monetary cost attribute could be an entrance fee people would have

to pay. This is comparable to the contingent valuation method, where, after a description of the

park, people would also be asked if they would be willing to pay a certain entrance fee.

The advantage of a choice experiment is the ability to understand

more accurately what exactly people would be willing to pay for, because a monetary value can

be derived for each of the attributes. It is very important to carefully select the relevant

attributes and assign their levels. Relevant attributes should be considered important

characteristics of the good by the target population, and it has to be possible to influence them

by for instance a policy change. What people think are important attributes and realistic levels

can be investigated in focus group discussions (Bateman and al. 2002). While it is vital to

describe the good accurately, care has to be taken not to overstretch the analytical capacities of

the respondents. Too many attributes will make it impossible for them to easily evaluate the

alternatives. As a result, respondents might base their choices on just one or two attributes, or

even lose interest in the choices all together and either refuse to participate or select the

alternatives arbitrarily.

After the relevant attributes and levels have been determined, the next step is to

construct the alternatives from the different attribute levels and the choice sets from the

different alternatives. One of the alternatives is always a non-of-the-above option, which can be

considered a choice for the status quo or no-change. These designs have to meet certain criteria

to warrant meaningful results. This kind of study is of benefit to policy makers, as it helps them

to decide where to establish new tourism resources and to determine the costs of participating.

The questionnaire comprised of four parts. First, we obtained personal data from the

respondents, e.g., sex, age, nationality, and annual income. Second, we described the six main

tourism resources around the Northern Circuit with a color photo panel that used the same

descriptions. Third, we explained known problems associated with access to these sites, as

mentioned earlier. Finally, the choice experiment was conducted six times for each respondent.

We showed respondents three profiles, two of which were hypothetical one-day package tours,

and the other was the option of staying in town without joining a tour. We asked respondents to

choose their most preferred option. Formally, in the course of making choice, individuals were

said to solve the following maximization problem:

Maxc,x U[c1(A1)],...,cN(AN);z]

N

s.t. i. y= ∑ pici (Ai

i=1

ii ci cj = 0, Ai ≠ j

iii z ≥ 0, ci (Ai) ≥ for at least one i

where, U[…] is a quasiconcave utility function; ci (Ai) is alternative combination i

(profile i ) as a function of its generic and alternative specific attributes, the vector Ai;

pi is the price of each profile; z is a composite bundle of ordinary goods with its price

normalized to 1 and y is income. A number of properties follow from the specification

of the maximization problem:

The ci’s are profiles defined for all the relevant alternatives. Additionally, the choice of any

profile is for a fixed, and given, amount of it. There are N such profiles, where N is in principle

given by all relevant profiles. Below we describe one of the six cards indicating one of the six

eligible choices.

5.2 CONTINGENT VALUATION METHOD (CVM)

The contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to assess the use value of tourist attractions

in the Northern Circuit. This approach enabled us to ascertain whether visitors value the

attractions they visit and if they are willing to reduce pressure on already overcrowded sites.

Respondents were asked an open-ended question to elicit maximum willingness to pay to

conserve the Northern Circuit. Unlike in other CVM surveys this question was posed as one of

the attributes in the choice model. The particular remit of the survey was to elicit a very wide

range of attitudes and characteristics, in order to assess the nature of the valuations submitted.

The analysis of the willingness to pay assumed that utility gained from consuming tourist

services is a function of market prices, income, and other alternative tourist attractions. A

change in the amount of one of the tourist services z (in this case provision of susiatnable

tourist goods and services) will change utility. Consider a change in z so that z1 > z0. It follows

that, if the element of z changed is considered a ‘good’ by the individual, that provides positive

benefit, then in terms of indirect utility functions V (p,z,y):

U1 = V (p, z1,y) > U0 = V (p, z0,y) (1)

Where p is price, y is income and z is tourist service.

Therefore the compensating variation (CV) of the utility change can be expressed in terms of

the indirect utility function as follows:

V (p, z1,y - C) = V (p, z0,y) (2)

In (2), C represents the amount of money loss the individual could incur after a change in z

and still be as well off as before the change. It is the maximum willingness to pay for a certain

level of provision of tourist services. This assumes that the individual experiences no decrease

in utility due to the change from z0 to z1 so that D U º U1 - U0 ³ 0. The CVM payment is for

z1, where the tourist services are improved through direct contributions.

Regression

An econometric linear model was used to investigate what factors affect people’s willingness to

pay for tourist service. To reduce the complexity of the model and facilitate model estimation

with relatively few observations, the midpoints of respondent’s bounded intervals of WTP were

used as the dependent variable. There is no obvious reason why this assumption should unduly

bias any conclusions drawn from the estimated model. The model explaining WTP is given

below:

(3) ijijij XWTP εβ += 1

where Xi is a vector of exogenous explanatory variables, i and j refers to individual and area

specifics, β is the parameter vector to be estimated and e is the residual error, assumed

distributed N(0, s 2).

RESULTS

Our survey design used existing and new tourism resources as attributes. To assess individual

level tourist economics outcome, we assumed a random utility model and estimated the value

of the attributes using a conditional logit model. Based on the results of our estimations, we

also calculated a marginal willingness-to-pay assessment for each resource. Our survey results

indicated that Serengeti and Ngorongoro had the highest values of all existing tourist

attractions. We also estimated the relative values of less popular but potential tourist sites like

Mikumu. Finally we used the last attribute to estimate the willingness to pay as a contribution

towards conserving the currently degraded most popular tourist sites. First we found that less

popular tourist destinations have less value relative to the most popular ones. The results

suggested that significant investment in infrastructure, tourist facilities and improved services

are pre-requsite for the less popular tourist sites in other circuits can be used as alternative

tourist destinations. The average willingness to pay was expressed at about $7.5 as one and for

all contribution fees from visitors in the Northern Circuit. We use this figure to get the average

value of the tourist site.

TABLE 3

RESULTS OF ESTIMATED CHOICE MODEL AND MARGINAL WILLINGNESS TO PAY

Results

Table 5 shows the results for our choice model. The coefficients estimates are based on the

attributes. The results control for socio-economic characteristics that can potentially cause

endogeneity problem in our estimates. The results indicated in the table confirm that all our

coefficients have the right signs of coefficients. The less popular destination has negative

coefficient sign, showing disutility of visit. The rest have positive coefficients signifying strong

preference of visitors in the already over crowded attractions. The coefficient for willingness to

pay for improving sustainability has the positive sign implying a strong preference to pay and

also most important the positive value of the tourist resources estimated. The model provides a

relatively good fit of the data as demonstrated by a pseudo R-squared of 0.31. As a rule of

thumb a good model should have an R-squared between 0.2 and 0.4. As can be seen more days

spent in Ngorongoro is the most preferred form of alternative to the overcrowded site of

Serengeti National Park.

As the table indicates, we calculated the Marginal rate of substitution (MRS). The

MRS is the rate at which respondents are willing to trade-off one tourist attraction for

Attributes Model 1 Marginal Substitution

Standard Deviation

Less Popular -0.0185 9.4

0.0014

Serengeti 0.1001 12.5

0.0094

Ngorongoro 0.1905

0.0103

Manyara 0.0142

0.0006

Marginal WTP $7.5

Pseudo R2 0.31

No. of observations 2160

another given that everything else is held constant. From the table we uncover that tourists are

willing to give up 12.5 % of their income spent in overcrowded site in exchange for one day

spent in a next popular destination. Similarly, they are willing to give up 9.4% of their income

spent in most popular destination for one day spent in a less popular destination.

5.3 Results of valuation based on the willingness to pay

We used the value on willingness to pay of $ 7.5 along with the total visitors in each attraction (attribute) to estimate the economic value of each attraction. The results are indicated in the table below

Table 4 estimates of attraction values based on willingness to pay

Mean Willingness to Pay in US Dollars

Estimated Value in US Dollars

Serengeti 378,218 7.5 2,836,635

Manyara 120,470 7.5 903,525

Ngorongoro 297,797 7.5 2,233,477

Arusha 67,075 7.5 503,063

Tarangire 78,967 7.5 592,253

The table above reveals that the overcrowded attractions have the highest value.

6 Recommended Management Plans for Impact Mitigation in the Northern

Circuit.

In this section we propose some potential intervention measure to ensure sustainable tourism

development in our study area. One of the critical approach to the observed sustainability

problems in the Northern circuit is design of Impact management plans. This Impact

Management Plans can be used as a tool to ensure that mitigation measures are implemented

and impact management is taking place. Such plans typically incorporate appropriate

management of environmental, social, cultural and economic impacts, intended to follow

through on the results of the impact assessment by describing the mitigation and emergency

response measures, monitoring, reporting, management and administrative mechanisms and

structures that will be put in place during the various stages of implementing projects, including

construction, commissioning, operation and decommissioning.

If we are to consider the plans as an option to escalating sustainability problems in the Northern

Circuit then the plan should be inclusive of the following:

• Description of planned mitigation measures

• Description of measures for responding to potential adverse effects.

• Description of planned environmental monitoring - this should specify the type of

monitoring required, the parameters to be measured, methods to be used, sampling

location; frequencies, detection limits and thresholds to signal the need for corrective

actions.

• Description of the responsibilities and accountabilities for mitigation, responses to

accidents and malfunctions, and monitoring - this should include responsibilities for

mitigation, accidents and malfunctions and monitoring together with information flow,

and coordination between and among agencies responsible for mitigation, monitoring

and emergency response.

6.1 Management of Tourism

The other solution to the sustainable problems of the Northern Curcuit would be to ensure long-term commitments and improvements to develop and promote sustainable tourism, through partnerships and voluntary initiatives by all sectors and stakeholders, including initiatives to give local communities a share in the ownership and benefits of tourism. Some more specific intervention arrears in the northern circuit should be along the following lines.

• Structure initiatives to give all stakeholders a share in the ownership, to maximise their effectiveness.

• Establish clear responsibilities, boundaries and timetables for the success of any initiative.

• As well as global initiatives, encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to also develop and promote their own initiatives for sustainable tourism at a more local level

• Consider integrating initiatives for small and medium-sized enterprises within overall business support packages, including access to financing, training and marketing, alongside measures to improve sustainability as well as the quality and diversity of their tourism products.

• Market tourism in a manner consistent with sustainable development of tourism.

6.2 Monitoring

Monitoring of tourist activities in the northern circuit is another form of intervention that can improve the modes of tourist development. This approach can ensure consistent monitoring and review of tourism activities to detect problems at an early stage and to enable action to prevent the possibility of more serious damage. Specific steps recommended on this front are to:

• Establish indicators for measuring the overall progress of tourist areas towards sustainable development.

• Establish institutional and staff capacity for monitoring.

• Monitor the implementation of environmental protection and related measures set out in EIAs, and their effectiveness, taking into account the effectiveness of any ongoing management requirements for the effective operation and maintenance of those measures for protection of areas where tourism activities take place.

6.3 Compliance Mechanisms

The final aspect of Impact management plan in the northern circuit is compliance mechanism that would ensure compliance with development plans, planning conditions, standards and targets for sustainable tourism by providing incentives, monitoring compliance, and enforcement activities where necessary.

• Provide sufficient resources for maintaining compliance, including increasing the number of trained staff able to undertake enforcement activities as part of their duties.

• Monitor environmental conditions and compliance with legislation, regulations, and consent conditions

• Use compliance mechanisms and structured monitoring to help detect problems at an early stage, enabling action to be taken to prevent the possibility of more serious damage.

• Take into account compliance and reporting requirements set out in relevant international agreements.

• Use incentives to encourage good practice, where appropriate.

7 Summary and Conclusion




Northern Circuit of Tanzania.









enforcement for tourism expansion to be sustainable in this area.

Apart from the strategic impact assessment of the tourist projects in the Northern

Circuit, we undertook the economic valuation of the benefits of such projects. In this respect,

we used the Choice Model/Experiment. Choice experiments, along with the, by now, well-

known contingent valuation method, are very important tools for valuing non-market goods and

the results are used in both cost-benefit analyses and litigations related to damage assessments.

Our matrix of impact assessment revealed that increased number of tourist is perceived by




have negative outcome. On the other hand, enhanced business and market increase is regarded

as a positive effect in the study area. We have argued that this is partly due to considerable


negative.




Northern Circuit of Tanzania.









enforcement for tourism expansion to be sustainable in this area.

Apart from the strategic impact assessment of the tourist projects in the Northern

Circuit, we undertook the economic valuation of the benefits of such projects. In this respect,

we used the Choice Model/Experiment. Choice experiments, along with the, by now, well-

known contingent valuation method, are very important tools for valuing non-market goods and

the results are used in both cost-benefit analyses and litigations related to damage assessments.

Our matrix of impact assessment revealed that increased number of tourist is perceived by




have negative outcome. On the other hand, enhanced business and market increase is regarded

as a positive effect in the study area. We have argued that this is partly due to considerable


negative.

Our choice model results revealed the coefficient for willingness to pay for improving

sustainability has the positive sign implying a strong preference to pay and also most important

the positive value of the tourist resources estimated. In calculating the Marginal rate of

substitution (MRS) we found that tourists are willing to give up 12.5 % of their income spent

in overcrowded site in exchange for one day spent in a next popular destination. Similarly, they

are willing to give up 9.4% of their income spent in most popular destination for one day spent

in a less popular destination.

REFERENCES

Arens, W. 1979. On the frontiers of change: Mto wa Mbu, Tanzania. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Diyamett, C.B. 1978. Commoditization of livestock in a predominantly non cash-crop growing

area (a case study of Mbulu District). MA Thesis (Sociology) University of Dar es Salaam. Fosbrooke, H.A. 1954. The Mbulu Highlands: problems, or people. land and cattle. Kampala: East Africa Institute of Social Research. Homewood, K.M. & W.A. Rogers. 1991. Maasailand ecology, pastoral development and

wildlife conservation in Ngorongoro, Tanzania. Cambridge: CUP. Iliffe, J. 1971. Agricultural change in modern Tanganyika. Historical Association of Tanzania Paper No 10. Dar Es Salaam: East African Publishing House. Kiwasila, H. 1992. Human population and growth. In Mwalyosi, R.B. & S.A. Mohamed (Eds.) A resource management strategy for Lake Manyara Catchment Basin Tanzania. Proceedings of a workshop 5-6 March 1992, Arusha, Tanzania. IRA, University of Dar es Salaam.

Kjaerby, F. 1979. The development of agro-pastoralism among the Barabaig in Hanang District. Research paper No. 56; Bureau of Resource Assessment and Land Use Planning, University of Dar es Salaam. Kjekshus, H. 1977. Ecology, control and economic development in East African history.

Heinemann: London. Koponen, J. 1988. People and production in late precolonial Tanzania, history and structures.

Monographs of the Finnish Society for Development Studies No 2. Lane, C. 1996. Pastures lost, Barabaig economy, resource tenure and the alienation of the land

in Tanzania. African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) Drylands Research Series No 7. Nairobi. 25 Issue Paper 109, Drylands Programme, IIED

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