Internal migration in ASIA:

a cross-national comparison

Emeritus Professor Martin Bell

Dr Aude Bernard

Dr Elin Charles-Edwards

Professor Yu Zhu

ADRI

Shanghai University

October 2019

Aims

This presentation:

▪ To provide a progress report on the IMAGE-Asia

project

IMAGE-Asia:

▪ Develop a comprehensive understanding of the way

in which internal migration varies between the

countries of Asia

▪ Build capacity in the analysis of internal migration

data and migration dynamics among Asia-based

researchers

Project Structure

❑ Builds on the Global IMAGE project funded by the

Australian Research Council, 2011-2015

❑ Project Inception, ADRI Forum, Shanghai June 2017

❑ Framework paper – ADRI WP October 2017;

published in Asian Population Studies, 15(2), 2019

❑ Two day workshop funded by ADRI, invited scholars,

from 20 countries, Shanghai, July 2018

❑ Refinement, revision, rewriting and updating country-

specific contributions

❑ Preparation of an edited volume, to be published by

Springer, mid-2020

The Global IMAGE Project – Key Features

An international collaborative program which developed a robust

framework for comparing internal migration between countries.

Data Inventory

▪ Identified types of migration

data and who collects what

Migration metrics

▪ Developed suite of robust

migration indicators

Outcomes

▪ Multinational data repository

on GITHUB

▪ Bespoke analytical software

(IMAGE Studio) on GITHUB

▪ Papers on methods and

metrics

▪ Papers comparing countries

on key aspects of migration

▪ Regional papers – Latin

America, Europe, Asia

Links and references at:

https://imageproject.com.au

Data Repository

▪ Assembled global collection

of internal migration datasets

Analytical methods

▪ Resolved key methodological

issues – eg MAUP

Why IMAGE-Asia ??

❑ Global IMAGE project deliberately quantitative – delivered rigorous

metrics on migration to match eg TFR, LE, and enable creation of

national league tables.

❑ Sought explanation via associations with other national indicators, eg

GDP, HDI.

❑ But scale and pattern of migration is also shaped by national and

local contexts

❑ Nuanced explanation calls for subtle blending of robust metrics with

understanding of contextual forces

❑ IMAGE-Asia attempts this by embedding IMAGE migration metrics in

bespoke analyses written by selected country experts but using a

clearly structured format.

❑ Country experts bring to bear local knowledge but also include local

datasets – eg surveys - to supplement analysis and aid interpretation.

The IMAGE-Asia Community

❑ 47 UN member states spanning 160 degrees of longitude and embracing

multiple languages, cultures, histories, political systems and levels of

development.

❑ Not all collect migration data; several war-torn; some lack professional

contacts; some un-responsive

❑ 18 countries attended 2018 Shanghai workshop; 15 delivered chapters.

Armenia (??) Kazakhstan ??

Bhutan Mongolia ?

Cambodia Myanmar

China Nepal ??

India South Korea

Iran Sri Lanka ?

Israel Thailand

Japan

Three Dimensions of Migration

The IMAGE Project identified five dimensions of migration:

Intensity, Distance, Selectivity, Impact, Connectivity.

IMAGE–Asia focuses on three of these, each of which

provides a unique perspective on population mobility:

▪ Overall migration intensity – the level or rate of movement

– the propensity to move

▪ The age profile of migration, especially the age at which

migration peaks

▪ The spatial impact of migration - its effect in redistributing

population and changing the pattern of human settlement

Measuring Migration Intensity

▪ ‘Intensity’ encompasses both ‘rates’ and ‘probabilities’

▪ CMI – Crude migration intensity: 𝐶𝑀𝐼 = 100 ×𝑀

𝑃where

▪ M = number of migrants or migrations in an interval

▪ P = population at risk (start of interval for transitions)

▪ Can calculate for any spatial scale –▪ But result depends on spatial scale and observation interval

▪ Only comparable figure is ALL changes of address,

irrespective of distance moved – ACMI (Aggregate CMI)

▪ Few countries collect this directly so we use a method

devised by Courgeau et al. (1973/2012) to estimate it for

other countries

Estimating the ACMI for Iran 2006-11

5 Regions 1.63%

31 Ostans 2.66%

326 Shahrestans 4.16%

63079 cities/villages 7.41%

Estimated ACMI 11.3%Courgeau, Bell and

Muhidin (2012)

demonstrated a linear

relationship between

CMI and log of average

number of households

per zone

IMAGE Studio provides

a framework to generate

additional observations

for different levels of

scale and different

spatial patterns

Aggregate Crude Migration Intensities in Asia

Fiv

er

year

inte

nsitie

sThe ACMI is a measure or

estimate of ALL changes of

address over a five year period

and so is directly comparable

between countries

Fiv

e y

ear

inte

nsitie

s

Measuring Age Composition

Rogers and colleagues (1978, 1983) identified global

regularities in the age profile of migration that appear to hold

irrespective of spatial scale

Migration peaks among young adults, falls at older ages and

among teenagers, and rises again among children,

sometimes with a peak in retirement and/or a rise in old age.

Later research

revealed marked

variations in the age

and intensity at the

peak

Global Variations in the Age Profile of Migration

Bernard, A., Bell, M., & Charles-Edwards, E. (2014). Life-Course Transitions and the Age Profile of Internal Migration. Population and

Development Review, 40(2), 231-239.

Explained by

differences in

the timing of

the transition

to adulthood:

• Education

• Partnership

• First job

• Fertility

Variations in Migration Age Profile in Asia

Measuring the Spatial Impact of Migration

Index of Net Migration Impact (INMI) (Rees et al 2016)

❑ Measures the net impact of migration in redistributing

population between regions.

❑ Based on the Aggregate Net Nigration Rate (ANMR) which

links the CMI (migration intensity) with the MEI (migration

effectiveness index) ANMR = CMI × MEI

❑ INMI generalises this equation so that it measures

redistribution at all spatial levels and is therefore

comparable across countries

Comparing Redistribution across Countries

Index of Net

Migration Impact ▪ Compares countries on

extent of redistribution

▪ Scaled to average of all

Asian countries as

reference category so that

Index of 1.0 is average for

all countries

Rees, P., Bell, M, Kupiszewski, M. and Kupiszewska,

D. Ueffing, P., Bernard, A., Charles-Edwards, E, and

Stillwell, J., [2016]: The Impact of Internal Migration on

Population Redistribution: An International Comparison,

Population, Space and Place, 23(6):1-22. DOI:

10.1002/psp.2036

Spatial Impact Depends on Intensity and Effectiveness

CRICOS Provider No 00025B

Index of Net

Migration Impact ▪ compares countries on

extent of redistribution

▪ Index of r=1.0 is average

for all countries

▪ Shows relative

contributions of intensity

and redistribution

Rees, P., Bell, M, Kupiszewski, M. and

Kupiszewska, D. Ueffing, P., Bernard, A., Charles-

Edwards, E, and Stillwell, J., [2016]: The Impact of

Internal Migration on Population Redistribution: An

International Comparison, Population, Space and

Place, DOI: 10.1002/psp.2036

Beyond the Simple Rural-Urban Dichotomy

• Few countries collect

useable data on rural

urban migration

• We use population

density as a proxy for

urbanisation

• Plot net migration rate

against density for each

region

• Slope of regression line

indicates direction and

strength of redistribution

Linking Population Redistribution to Development

Phases in population redistribution

1 - Early urbanization

2 - Mature urbanization

3 - Late urbanization

4 - Counter-urbanization

5 - After the transitions:

(a) Re-urbanization

(b) De-urbanization

(c) Dynamic equilibrium

Rees, P., Bell, M, Kupiszewski, M. and Kupiszewska, D. Ueffing, P., Bernard, A., Charles-Edwards, E, and Stillwell, J., [2016]: The Impact of

Internal Migration on Population Redistribution: An International Comparison, Population, Space and Place, DOI: 10.1002/psp.2036

Commonalities and Differences

Common Theoretical Frameworks (all countries):

❑ Economic development; Urban transition; Transition to adulthood

Forces shaping migration in some countries, some times

❑ Sporadic events - natural disasters, military conflict, political upheaval

❑ Interactions with other forms of mobility – circulation, international

migration

❑ Gender roles; ethnic composition

❑ Strength of particular reasons for migration – eg military service,

marriage, education, displacement

❑ Government policy instruments, controls and constraints

❑ Cultural norms and expectations

❑ Historical inertia

Common Chapter Structure

The editors devised a common structure for each substantive

chapter to facilitate comparability:

1. Introduction (300-500)

2. Internal Migration Data (500-700)

3. The Spatial Framework (500-700)

4. Prior Research (500-700)

5. How Much Movement? - Migration Intensity (700-900)

6. Who Moves? – The Characteristics of Migrants (700-900).

7. Where Do They Move? - Spatial Patterns (1000-1200).

8. Understanding Internal Migration (800-1000)

9. Impacts and Implications (500-700)

10. Conclusions (500)

In addition, each chapter utilises a series of common graphics and tables.

Publication

Format of the book

• Chapter 1: Introduction

• Chapter 2: Conceptual Framework – (3)

• Chapter 3: Methods of Analysis

• Chapter 4-18: Country chapters

• Chapter 19: Conclusions

Publication

• Springer Nature – mid 2020

• Approx 400 pages

• Hardcopy, POD and E-copy

• All colour

• Copies to all authors

• Individual chapters can be purchased

IMAGE Project Resources 1

Electronic Resources

IMAGE Project main webpage : https://imageproject.com.au/framework/

IMAGE Studio software and datasets : https://github.com/IMAGE-Project

USER Guides

Bell, M., Bernard, A., Ueffing, P. & Charles-Edwards, E. [2014]: The IMAGE Repository: A User Guide, Working Paper

2014/01, Queensland Centre for Population Research, The University of Queensland

https://imageprojectcomau.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/imagerepossitoryuserguide.pdf

Bell, M., Bernard, A., Charles-Edwards, E., Kupiszewska, D., Kupiszewski, M., Stillwell, J., Zhu, Y., Ueffing, P. & Booth, A.

(2015) The IMAGE Inventory: A user guide, Working Paper 2015/01, Queensland Centre for Population Research,

University of Queensland, Brisbane. https://imageprojectcomau.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/imageinventoryuserguide.pdf

Daras, K. [2014]: IMAGE Studio 1.4.2 User Manual, School of Geography, University of Leeds

https://imageprojectcomau.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/image_studio_1_4_2_user_manual.pdf

Technical Papers

Bernard, A., & Bell, M. (2015). Smoothing internal migration age profiles for comparative research. Demographic

Research, 32(33), 915-948.

Courgeau, D., Muhidin, S. & Bell, M. [2012]: Estimating changes of residence for cross-national comparison, Population-

E, 67(4): 631-652, DOI 10.3917/pope.1204.0631. Also published as Estimer les changements de résidence pour

permettre les comparaisons internationales, Population-F, 67(4): 747-770, DOI : 10317/popu.1204.0747

Stillwell, J., Daras, K., Bell, M. & Lomax, N. (2014), The IMAGE Studio: a tool for internal migration analysis and modelling,

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 7(1), 1-23

Stillwell, J., Daras, K. & Bell, M. [2018]: Spatial aggregation methods for investigating the MAUP effects in migration

analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-018-9274-6

IMAGE Project Resources 2

Thematic Papers

Bell, M., Blake, M., Boyle, P., Duke-Williams, O., Rees, P., Stillwell, J. & Hugo, G. [2002]: Cross-national comparison of

internal migration: issues and measures, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 165(3): 435-464

Bell, M, and Charles-Edwards, E. [2013]: Cross-national comparisons of internal migration: an update of global patterns

and trends, Technical paper 2013/1, Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New

York. http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/technical/TP2013-1.pdf

Bell, M., Charles-Edwards, E., Kupiszewska, D., Kupiszewski, M., Stillwell, J., & Zhu, Y. [2014]: Internal migration data

around the world: assessing contemporary practice. Population, Space and Place, 21(1), 1-17.

Bernard, A., Bell, M., & Charles-Edwards, E. [2014]: Life-course transitions and the age profile of internal migration,

Population and Development Review. 40(2): 231-239.

Bernard, A, Bell, M & Charles-Edwards, E [2014]: Improved measures for the cross-national comparison of age profiles of

internal migration, Population Studies, 68(2): 179-195

Bell, M, & Charles-Edwards, E. [2014]: Measuring Internal Migration around the Globe: A Comparative Analysis, KNOMAD

Working Paper 3/2014, The World Bank

http://www.knomad.org/docs/internal_migration/KNOMAD%20Working%20Paper%203_BellCharles-Edwards_12-19-

2014.pdf

Bell, M, Charles-Edwards, E, Ueffing, P., Stillwell, J., Kupiszewski, M. & Kupiszewska, D. [2015]: Internal migration and

development: comparing migration intensities around the world, Population and Development Review, 41(1), 33-58

Rees, P., Bell, M, Kupiszewski, M. and Kupiszewska, D. Ueffing, P., Bernard, A., Charles-Edwards, E, & Stillwell, J.,

[2016]: The impact of internal migration on population redistribution: an international comparison, Population, Space and

Place, DOI: 10.1002/psp.2036

Stillwell, J., Bell, M., Ueffing, P., Daras, K., Charles-Edwards, E., Kupiszewski, M. & Kupiszewska, D. [2016]: Internal

migration around the world: comparing distance travelled and its frictional effect, Environment and Planning, A. DOI:

10.1177/0308518X16643963

IMAGE Project Resources 3

Thematic Papers (continued)

Bernard, A., Bell, M. & Charles-Edwards, E. [2016]: Internal migration age patterns and the transition to adulthood:

Australia and Great Britain compared, Journal of Population Research, 33(2): 123-146. DOI 10.1007/s12546-016-9157-0

Stillwell, J., Bell, M. & Shuttleworth, I. [2017]: Studying internal migration in a cross-national context, pp. 56-75 in

Champion, A, Cooke, T. & Shuttleworth, I. (eds.) Internal Migration in the Developed World. Are We Becoming Less

Mobile, Routledge.

Regional Analyses

Charles-Edwards, E., Muhidin, S., Bell, M. & Zhu, Y. [2016]: Regional perspectives: migration in Asia, pp. 269-284 in

Michael White (ed) International Handbook of Migration and Population Distribution, Springer. DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-

7282-2

Charles-Edwards, E., Bell, M., Bernard, A. & Zhu, Y. [2017]: Internal migration in the countries of Asia: levels, ages and

spatial impacts, Working Paper 1/2017, Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University

Bernard, A., Rowe, F., Bell, M., Ueffing, P. & Charles-Edwards, E. [2017]: Comparing internal migration across the

countries of Latin America: A multidimensional approach, PLoS ONE 12(3): e0173895.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0173895

Charles-Edwards, E., Bell, M., Bernard, A. & Zhu, Y. [2019]: Internal migration in the countries of Asia: levels, ages and

spatial impacts, Asian Population Studies, 15(2): 150-171, DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2019.1619256