Interim Report January-September 2007ir.boliden.com/sites/default/files/report/q3_2007_eng.pdf ·...

32
Boliden AB 1 2015-11-12 Interim Report January-September 2007 Svante Nilsson, acting President and CEO

Transcript of Interim Report January-September 2007ir.boliden.com/sites/default/files/report/q3_2007_eng.pdf ·...

Page 1: Interim Report January-September 2007ir.boliden.com/sites/default/files/report/q3_2007_eng.pdf · Lower grades at Storliden due to mining of marginal ore. Planned change in ore mix

Boliden AB 1 2015-11-12

Interim Report

January-September 2007

Svante Nilsson, acting President and CEO

Page 2: Interim Report January-September 2007ir.boliden.com/sites/default/files/report/q3_2007_eng.pdf · Lower grades at Storliden due to mining of marginal ore. Planned change in ore mix

Boliden AB 2015-11-12 2

The Metals’ Market

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Market development

Copper:

Pressure on concentrate market. Global cathode production in Q3 4.4 million tonnes and consumption 4.5 million tonnes.

Zinc:

Good availability of zinc concentrate. Balance between production (casted zinc) and consumption in Q3 – 2.8 million tonnes.

Source: CRU

Global

Cu Consumption 4%

Zn Consumption 2%

USA

Cu Consumption - 2%

Zn Consumption - 9%

Europe

Cu Consumption - 2%

Zn Consumption 1%

China

Cu Consumption 16%

Zn Consumption 7%

Q1-Q3

2007

Global (IMF) 5.2% 2007 4.8% 2008

USA 1.9% 1.9%

W Europe 2.5% 2.1%

China 11.5% 10.0%

GDP forecast 2007-2008

Source: IMF Sep 2007

Q 1-3

2007

Industrial production Q 3 2007 Global 4.2%

USA 1.6%

W Europe 2.1%

Japan 2.4%

China 18.7% Source: Brook Hunt

Metal consumption

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LME Zinc Price and Stocks

Source: LME, Closing tonnage

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

0

125 000

250 000

375 000

500 000

625 000

750 000

875 000

1 000 000

Tonnes USD/tonne

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China’s Net Imports/Exports

Source: Metals Insider

China’s Net Imports of Zinc 2004-2007

-60 000

-40 000

-20 000

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

To

nn

es

Jan-Aug 2007: net exports 144,000 tonnes

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High import of zinc to Europe

Source: CHR

Europe is today a net importer of zinc, after being a net

exporter until end 2004. During the period January – August 2007

net imports reached approx. 230,000 tonnes.

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Source: CRU Monitor Zinc

US Midwest Delivered Europe ex-works Far East (Western)

…puts pressure on zinc premium

209

231

270 265254

265275

265

243233

210

177 177

143133

10593

230

275265 265

320 320

360380

350

320 320

285

265

250

230 230

145

100 100 95 100 100 95 9097.5 95 90 90

100110 110 110

125

320

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

M ay-06 Jun-06 Jul -06 Aug-06 Sept -06 Oct -06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 M ar -07 Apr -07 M ay-07 Jun-07 Jul -07 Aug-07 Cur r ent

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LME Copper Price and Stocks

Source: LME

1 200

1 980

2 760

3 540

4 320

5 100

5 880

6 660

7 440

8 220

9 000

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

Tonnes USD/tonne

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China’s import of copper

Source: Metals Insider

China’s Net Imports of Copper 2004-2007

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

To

nn

es

China’s imports expected to increase during Q4

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Copper Premium in Europe

110

100

80

70 70

60 60

50

80 80

45 50

65

45

65

45

45 45

40

93

93

50

113 120

155

115

135

140

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sept-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-05 Sept-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 jul-07 Aug-45 Current

Spot Copper premium CIF W. Europe

Benchmark 2005 115 USD annual

Benchmark 2007

125 USD annual

Benchmark 2006 105 USD annual

USD/tonne

Source: CRU Monitor Copper

Benchmark Codelco 2008: CIF Europe 115 USD/tonne

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Financials

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Result Q 3, 2007

Revenues 8 166 9 299 - 12

Operating profit (EBIT) 1 332 2 095 - 36

Profit before tax 1 234 2 067 - 40

Earnings per share, SEK 3.20 5.32 - 40

Cashflow from operating activities 592 1 681 - 65

Return on capital employed (%) 29 51

Net debt/Shareholders’ equity (%) 40 16

Change

SEK m 2007 2006 %

Q 3

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Operating profit (EBIT) per quarter – SEK million

398 351

686

1634

1750

2451

2095

2225

1286

2220

1332

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Q1 -05 Q2 -05 Q3 -05 Q4 -05 Q1 -06 Q2 -06 Q3 -06 Q4 -06 Q1 -07 Q2 -07 Q3 -07

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Deviations Q 3 and 9 months: 2007 - 2006

Net price deviation - 198 - 361

Of which, Currencies - 316 - 1 042

Hedges 273 208

Final Prices (MAMA) 21 - 248

Stock results - 267 - 637

TC/RC - 171 - 328

Other prices and terms 262 1 686

Volume deviations Mines - 222 - 647

Volume deviations Smelters - 163 - 38

Net cost deviations - 147 - 376

Others - 33 - 37

Deviations

EBIT 1 332 (2 095) respectively 4 838 (6 297) - 763 - 1 459

SEK m 2007 - 2006 2007 - 2006

9 months Q 3

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Deviations Q 3 vs Q 2, 2007

Net price deviation - 431

Of which, Currencies - 132

Hedges 197

Final prices (MAMA) - 40

Stock results - 287

TC/RC 24

Other prices and terms - 193

Volume deviations Mines - 511

Volume deviations Smelters - 48

Net cost deviations 89

Others 13

Deviations, EBIT 1 332 (2 020) SEK million - 888

SEK m

Quarter 3 –

Quarter 2

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Operating profit per segment

EBIT-deviation Mines:

- Prices and terms SEK 289 million

- Volume deviation SEK -222 million

- Costs SEK -106 million

Mines 691 716 - 3

Smelters 617 1 406 - 56

Others 24 - 27 189

The Boliden Group 1 332 2 095 - 36

Change

SEK m 2007 2006 %

Q 3

EBIT-deviation Smelters:

- Prices and terms SEK -574 million

- Volume deviation SEK -163 million

- Costs SEK -51 million

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Smelters

EBIT SEK 617

million Mines

EBIT SEK 691

million EBIT

1.3 bn 1)

EBIT for Segment Mines includes hedges of SEK -350 million and for Smelters

hedges of SEK -61million.

1) Including ”Others” SEK 24 million

Operating profit Q 3 – Mines and Smelters

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Cashflow Q 3

Cashflow from operating activities SEK 592 million (1 681)

Investments SEK 530 million (428)

Free cashflow SEK 62 million (1 358)

Share buy-back SEK 1 430 million

Net loans SEK 668 million

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Capital structure by the end of the quarter

Return of capital to shareholders SEK 6.6 bn

- Dividend SEK 1 158 million

- Redemption SEK 3 464 million

- Share buy-back SEK 2 020 million

Balance sheet total, SEK bn 27.0 25.1

Capital employed, SEK bn 19.0 16.7

Shareholders’ equity,

SEK bn 12.2 13.4

Net debt, SEK bn 4.8 2.2

Gearing, % 40 16

Equity/assets ratio, % 45 54

30 Sep 30 Sep

2007 2006 Net debt

16%

-1%

-8%

27%

40%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Q 3

2006

Q 4

2006

Q 1

2007

Q 2

2007

Q 3

2007

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Segment Mines

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Production Mines

76 288 82 040

89 031 86 682

76 100

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

Tonnes

Q 3

2006

Q 4

2006

Q 1

2007

Q 2

2007

Q 3

2007

Zinc (metal content)

19 858 19 515 14 703

16 598 13 675

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

Tonnes

Q 3

2006

Q 4

2006

Q 1

2007

Q 2

2007

Q 3

2007

Copper (metal content)

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AITIK (Cu)Milled production, head grades, metal content

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

tonnes

0.00%

0.05%0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

M illed prod (ktonnes) 4 611 4 705 4 678 4 637 4 097

M etal content, Cu (t) 15 132 14 847 11 116 13 004 11 453

Ore grades, Cu act. 0.36% 0.35% 0.28% 0.32% 0.32%

Ore reserve grade, Cu ave. 0.31% 0.31% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28%

Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07

Production Aitik

Lower grades according to plan 2007 vs 2006.

Lower average mill throughput during third quarter.

Copper grade is expected to be slightly higher than the average grade

during fourth quarter.

Permit granted to commence expansion of Aitik 36 million tonnes.

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BOLIDEN AREA (Zn)Milled production, head grades, metal content

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

tonnes

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%

M illed prod (ktonnes) 380 450 454 456 479

M etal content, Zn (t) 14 979 16 849 18 229 19 769 15 334

Ore grades, Zn act. 5.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.4% 4.0%

Ore reserve grade, Zn ave. 6.7% 6.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07

Production Boliden Area

Lower zinc production during the quarter due to seasonal variations (Maurliden).

Lower grades at Storliden due to mining of marginal ore.

Planned change in ore mix during the first 9 months of the year results in:

-Reduced copper and gold production

-Unchanged zinc production

-Increased lead and silver production

Lower head grades YTD 2007. During Q 4 head grades are expected to be lower

than the average grade for the ore reserve.

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GARPENBERG (Zn)Milled production, head grades, metal content

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

tonnes

5.4%5.5%5.6%5.7%5.8%5.9%6.0%6.1%6.2%6.3%

Milled prod (ktonnes) 322 305 314 293 319

Metal content, Zn (t) 17 793 16 172 17 056 16 640 17 562

Ore grades, Zn act. 6.0% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 6.0%

Ore reserve grade, Zn ave. 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%

Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07

Production Garpenberg

High metal production during the year due to:

-High head grades

-Good throughput

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TARA (Zn)Milled production, head grades, metal content

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

tonnes

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

Milled prod (ktonnes) 710 654 686 661 653

Metal content, Zn (t) 43 516 49 019 53 746 50 273 43 204

Ore grades, Zn act. 6.7% 8.2% 8.5% 8.1% 7.1%

Ore reserve grade, Zn ave. 8.5% 8.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%

Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07

Production Tara

Lower head grades during the third quarter.

Head grades are expected to be below the ore reserve’s average grade during the

fourth quarter.

Investment in a new autogenous grinding circuit will halve operating costs for

grinding.

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Segment Smelters

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Production Copper Smelters

Extensive maintenance shutdown at Rönnskär during the third quarter.

Start-up problems at Harjavalta after the expansion investment.

Copper concentrate of different qualities and lower grades leads to lower

anode and cathode production levels.

Increased concentrate stocks at Harjavalta.

Copper Smelters Cu - Concentrate Feed & Cathode production

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

tonnes

Harjavalta Cu feed - concentrate 135 730 125 076 146 325 130 632 118 497 98 436 115 710

Rönnskär Cu feed - concentrate 147 085 136 048 148 477 155 558 150 324 149 217 143 669

Cathode production total 90 029 87 866 87 843 90 653 90 072 78 377 66 605

Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007

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Production Zinc Smelters

Record production levels at Kokkola during the first 9 months.

Processing and production at Odda was on par with levels in

2006.

Zinc Smelters Zn - Total Feed & Production

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

tonnes

Odda Zn feed 72 131 75 301 71 936 71 188 73 137 71 792 71 357

Kokkola Zn feed 139 358 121 884 142 976 144 027 141 159 147 120 143 536

Casted Zinc total 108 455 109 566 112 814 112 073 114 759 117 731 117 476

Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007

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Outlook 2008

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Forecast for continued good market 2008

Continued good demand for metals due to strong global GDP-growth of

approx. 4.8%.

The decline in USA and Europe is compensated by growth in Asia, in

China in particular.

Treatment and refining charges for copper are expected to be lower

2008 vs 2007. Boliden applies a brick system by which approx. 50% is

renegotiated on a yearly basis.

Benchmark premiums of copper are expected to be lower 2008 vs 2007.

Codelco’s benchmark for CIF Europe is USD 115 (125)/tonne 2008.

Zinc treatment charges are expected to be higher than in 2007.

Zinc premiums on a continued high level in Europe.

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Organic growth projects

Mines

Aitik: 36 million tonnes

Tara: Autogenous grinding circuit

Smelters

Harjavalta: Anode-, cathode production +30% and +20%

Rönnskär: +15 000 tonnes

Kokkola: Capacity increase +7%

Pre-studies

Garpenberg: Increased production

Rönnskär: Recycling of E-scrap

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”Boliden produces metals that

make modern life work”