INTERIM REPORT JANUARY – MARCH 2018INTERIM REPORT JANUARY – MARCH 2018 Q1 7 EBITDA GROWTH BOTH...
Transcript of INTERIM REPORT JANUARY – MARCH 2018INTERIM REPORT JANUARY – MARCH 2018 Q1 7 EBITDA GROWTH BOTH...
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JOHAN DENNELIND PRESIDENT & CEO
INTERIM REPORT JANUARY – MARCH 2018
Q1
GOOD START OF 2018
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MOBILE GROWTH ACROSS FOOTPRINT
MOBILE GROWTH ACROSS FOOTPRINT
TURKCELL DIVIDEND & DIVESTMENTS
TURKCELL DIVIDEND & DIVESTMENTS
THREE YEAR BUY BACK PROGRAM
THREE YEAR BUY BACK PROGRAM
STRONG OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW
STRONG OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW
6 OF 7MARKETS6 OF 7
MARKETS
5BN/YEAR5BN/YEAR0.9BN0.9BN
4.3BN4.3BN
REPORTED EBITDA GROWTHREPORTED EBITDA GROWTH
+7.4%+7.4%
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LAUNCH OF A THREE YEAR BUYBACK PROGRAM
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SEK 15BN 9% 0.5xSEK 3.45
AMBITION OF OUTSTANDINGSHARES
PER SHARE IMPACT ON LEVERAGE
IMPROVED SERVICE REVENUE TRENDOrganic growth, external service revenues
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Service revenues
Service revenues excl. fiber installation revenues
-0.9%-0.9%
-0.5%-0.5%
4.2%
7.4%
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q1 18reported
STABLE REVENUES WITH GROWING EBITDA
STRONG EBITDA DEVELOPMENTOrganic growth, reported Q1’18, excluding adjustment items
• Mobile revenue growth in 6 of 7 markets
• Legacy and fiber headwind in Sweden
• EBITDA growth in 6 of 7 markets
• Support from lower costs
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3
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
MOBILE REVENUES CONTINUED TO GROW
MOBILE SERVICE REVENUE GROWTHOrganic growth
SWEDEN
+4%SWEDEN
+4%
MOBILE ARPU GROWTH Q1In local currency, y-o-y
FINLAND
+5%FINLAND
+5%
NORWAY
FLATNORWAY
FLAT
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THE BALTICS
+4%THE BALTICS
+4%+1.5%+1.5%
• Mobile revenue growth in 6 of 7 markets • Growth in ARPU key part of strategy - not SIM cards
• Norway impacted by lower special number revenues
ARPU GROWTH IN FOCUS ON SWEDISH MOBILE
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTION GROWTH – B2CPostpaid mobile base, excl. mobile broadband, in 000’
POST-PAID ARPU GROWTH – B2C In local currency
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• Stable growth of postpaid subscriptions
• Focus on value and revenue market share
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Mobile B2C postpaid ARPU Mobile B2C revenue growth
• ARPU increasingly driven by subscription and usage
• VAS more “normal” growth vs. Q3/Q4 2017
+5%+5%
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CONVERGENCE IN OUR VALUE PROPOSITIONS
LIIGA PACKAGING TAKING SHAPE STRONG B2B PIPELINE AHEAD
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• B2B convergence via a broader portfolio
• Increased B2B interest from stronger proposition
• Data center to open in June
TEAM PASS LIIGA PASS GAME PASS
EUR 24.90/MONTHEUR 19.90/MONTH TO BE LAUNCHED
• Pre-sales exceeds expectations
• Both existing and new customers
• Much more to come
LEVERAGING ON STRONG B2B POSITION IN NORWAY
MOBILE B2C – CORE ARPU GROWTHIn local currency, B2C
PHONERO READY FOR NEXT PHASE
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• Focus on value to drive ARPU
• Improved product mix - focus on segment Young
• Monthly fees mitigated for special numbers
• Churn in line with expectations
Q22017
Q22017
Consolidatedfrom
Customer migrationstarted
Customers migrated
Q32017
Q32017
Q12018
Q12018
NOK 400mSYNERGY RUN RATE
NOK 400mSYNERGY RUN RATE0
100
200
300
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Monthly fee Special numbers Other Roaming
+6%
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OUR SEK 1.1 BILLION COST PROGRAM 2018 ON TRACK
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COST SAVINGS REALIZATION – Q1SEK in billions, cost base* in scope
+0.2
DisposalsQ1 17
-0.3
Savingsexcl.FX
-0.1
Acquisitions Q1 18
-0.2
SEK1.1BN
SEK1.1BN
* Equipment related costs are not included in the SEK 1.1 billion cost savings target for 2018
COST REDUCTION AMBITION 2018
INTEGRATED APPROACH TO SUSTAINABILITY
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CLEAR FRAMEWORK & TARGETS EXAMPLES OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS
ETHICS AND COMPLIANCEETHICS AND COMPLIANCE
TELIA - STATEMENT OF MATERIALITYTELIA - STATEMENT OF MATERIALITY
EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT & YOUNITEEMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT & YOUNITE
RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS
RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS
SHARED VALUE CREATION
SHARED VALUE CREATION
CHILDRENS RIGHTS• Facilitate cooperation with others to spread learnings
• Sharing experience how to protect children from abuse
SHARED VALUE CREATION• Smart transportation
• Connected water taps
ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY• 148,000 tons CO2e abated, equivalent of 30,000 cars
• 87 percent of electricity from renewable sources 2017
STRONG ESG PERFORMANCE• MSCI ESG “AAA”
• EcoVadis “Gold Supplier”
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OUTLOOK FOR 2018 (REVISED UP)
* Free cash flow from continuing operations, excluding licenses and dividends from associated companies
** Based on current structure, i.e. including M&A made so far, excluding adjustment items, in local currencies
Above SEK 9.7 billion (previously: Around SEK 9.7 billion)Operational FCF together with dividends from associated companies should cover a dividend around the 2017 level
O P E R A T I O N A L F C F *
In line or slightly above the 2017 level of SEK 25.2 billion (unchanged)E B I T D A * *
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CHRISTIAN LUIGA EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT & CFO
INTERIM REPORT JANUARY – MARCH 2018
Q1
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EBITDA GROWTH BOTH FROM ORGANIC AND M&A
EBITDA DEVELOPMENT – ORGANIC Organic growth, y-o-y, excluding adjustment items
• Revenue growth coupled with EBITDA leverage in majority of markets
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DENQ1 17
SWE FIN NOR LIT EST LAT Other Q1 18
+4.2%
• EBITDA growth of 7.4 percent driven by
• Solid organic growth
• M&A in Finland and Norway
• FX tailwind from stronger EUR
EBITDA DEVELOPMENT – REPORTEDReported growth, excluding adjustment items
Q1 17 Organic M&A FX Q1 18
+7.4%
LOWER COGS & RESOURCE COST KEY FOR COST SAVINGS
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COST 2018 SAVINGS BY TYPECost savings components as % of total savings
5% Resources
COGS
Marketing
IT
Other
• Improved sourcing and efficiency measures to drive down COGS
• Process improvements to drive down resource costs
COST 2018 SAVINGS OVERVIEWIllustrative only
Acqui-sitions
Savingsexcl. FX
Dispo-sals
2017 EquipmentCOGS
Cost base in scope
Target cost
base**
* 2017 M&A refers to the disposal of Sergel and acquisitions of Phonero and Nebula
• Equipment COGS and FX excluded
• All other costs incl. salary and other inflation included
** Adjusted for changes in FX
SEK 1.1 BILLION
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EBITDA GROWTH IN SWEDEN DRIVEN BY LOWER COSTS
• Continued growth in SME/SoHo
• Recovery in Large enterprises
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
B2B
B2C
B2C excl. fiber installation revenuesB2C incl. fiber installation revenues
EBITDA* Organic growth
• Cost savings more than mitigate the lower revenues
SERVICE REVENUESOrganic growth, external revenues
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3.0%
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
FIBER REVENUES SEK million, reported currency
* Excluding adjustment items
-0.1%-0.1%
+1.4%+1.4%
-2.4%-2.4%
-42%
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 180
100
200
300
Fiber installation revenues
Fiber installation revenue growth
• Permit issues remains
• We remain committed despite uncertainty
CONTINUED STRONG EBITDA GROWTH IN FINLAND
MOBILE DEVELOPMENTOrganic growth, ARPU growth in local currency
• Mobile ARPU still growing by around 5 percent
• Mobile growth impacted by loss of subscriptions
2,8373,084
964 1,151
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 18Service revenues EBITDA
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million, reported currency & organic growth
+8.7%+8.7%
-0.7%-0.7%
• Reported numbers boosted by M&A and FX
• EBITDA uplift from less resource costs and marketing
= Organic growth * External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items 16
2.4%
4.8%
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Total mobile service revenues Mobile ARPU
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REVENUE AND EBITDA GROWTH IN NORWAY
1,9432,129
862 1,008
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 18
SERVICE REVENUES* & EBITDA**SEK million, reported currency & organic growth
+5.0%+5.0%
+1.1%+1.1%
Service revenues EBITDA
• Wholesale continued to be the main revenue driver
• Special number revenues down by SEK ~30 millions
EBITDA** DEVELOPMENTSEK million, reported EBITDA growth
* External service revenues ** Excluding adjustment items = Organic growth
• Revenues and cost control behind organic growth
• Phonero synergies drove double digit reported growth
• Slight y-o-y headwind from FX
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Q1 17 Organic M&A FX Q1 18
+16.8%
206234
277318
145 141
Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Estonia Lithuania Denmark
Q1 17 Q1 18Lithuania
Q1 17 Q1 18Denmark
+9.5%+9.5%
Q1 17 Q1 18Estonia
SOLID BALTICS – CHALLENGING MARKET IN DENMARK
+8.8%+8.8%
-6.9%-6.9%
-4.2%-4.2%
+4.7%+4.7%
+2.5%+2.5%
SERVICE REVENUE DEVELOPMENTOrganic growth, external service revenues
EBITDA* DEVELOPMENTSEK million, reported currency & organic growth
= Organic growth * Excluding adjustment items
• Mobile growth of 12 percent in Lithuania
• Solid fixed development in Estonia
• Denmark still challenging- unlimited offering launched
• EBITDA leverage in the Baltics from revenue growth and lower costs
• Good efforts on cost in Denmark left absolute EBITDA more or less flat
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CASH CAPEX CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN
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• Cash CAPEX continues to trend down
• Both lower fiber and non-fiber related CAPEX
• Difference booked vs. cash CAPEX due to ice hockey rights
• In line with our expectations 2018 will show lower cash CAPEX
CAPEX EXCLUDING LICENSESReported currency, SEK million, R12
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Q117
Q217
Q317
Q417
Q118
SE
K m
illio
n
Booked CAPEX excl. licenses (R12) Cash CAPEX excl. licenses (R12)
LOWER NET DEBT AND LEVERAGE
1.15x1.15x
= Leverage ratio
NET DEBT DEVELOPMENT - Q1Continuing and discontinued operations, SEK billion
+3.2+1.2
Cash CAPEX
M&AQ4 17
-7.5
Operations
-2.2
FX & Other Q1 18
33.8
28.5
1.01x1.01x
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1.27x1.27x
* Not including 2nd dividend tranche of SEK 5 billion
+5.0+1.6 +1.4
M&A proceeds
to be distributed
Turkcelldividend
-0.9
Q1 18 1stdividendtranche
Remaining part of global
settlement
Q1 18 pro
forma*
28.5
35.6
NET DEBT DEVELOPMENT – PRO FORMA*Continuing and discontinued operations, SEK billion
1.01x1.01x
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NWC AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE CASH FLOW AGENDA
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• NWC important part of cash flow agenda in coming years
• Additional potential from i) vendor financing ii) credit account iii) part payment for resellers
NET WORKING CAPITAL TRENDSNWC in relation to R12 sales*
DPO DEVELOPMENTAverage DPO** for Sweden, Finland & Norway
• Improved payment terms and vendor financing
• Several key suppliers and resellers in Sweden, Finland and Norway already on-board
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Q1 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q3 17
Telia Company Peer group average
* Peer group consists of Telenor, Tele2, TDC, KPN, Deutsche Telekom, Proximus** DPO=Days payable outstanding
2015 2016 2017
+6+6
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Operational free cash flow (R12)
STRONG CASH FLOW TREND CONTINUES
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOW TREND Continuing operations, SEK billion
OPERATIONAL FREE CASH FLOWContinuing operations, SEK billion
10.03.9
4.3-0.4
Q1 18Q1 17 OtherEBITDANWC
CAPEX
InterestTax
Pensions
+0.7 +0.0
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• Driven by operational performance
• Fairly neutral on tax but negative on interests as Q1 2017 was impacted by the settlement of interest rate swaps
12
>9.7 9.7
>1.0
Cash flow SEK 2.3 dividend*
Dividend from associated companiesOp. Free CF guidance
CASH FLOW AND LEVERAGE SUPPORTS BUYBACKS
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1.3x1.3x
CASH FLOW GUIDANCEIn SEK billions
PRO FORMA LEVERAGE Q1 SHARE BUYBACKSIn SEK billions, % of outstanding shares
5
10
15
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
4
8
12
16
2018 2019 2020
* Dividend amount in SEK billion from a SEK 2.3 per share dividend including impact from 2018 buybacks
Q&A
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EXITED THE SPOTIFY INVESTMENT
EXIT FROM EURASIA CONTINUES AND SPOTIFY DIVESTED
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CONTINUING TO DIVEST IN EURASIA
• Azercell divested
• Leverage increase* of 0.1x
• Geocell divested
• Neutral on leverage*
• Investment made June 2015
• Proceeds of SEK 2.3 billion
• Return on investment of 2.4x (excl. FX)
• Successful collaboration ended
* After proceeds from the disposals have been distributed from Fintur to Turkcell
NEGATIVE EURASIA EBITDA DUE TO UZBEKISTAN
• Revenue growth Q1 due to Uzbekistan
• Positive EBITDA development in all countries except for Uzbekistan that was impacted by new subscriber taxes
* External service revenues **Excluding adjustment items
FINANCIAL TRENDS IN EURASIAOrganic growth
2%
-6%
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Service revenues*
EBITDA**
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FINANCIAL TRENDS IN KAZAKHSTANOrganic growth
-2%1%
Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Service revenues* EBITDA**
• Flat EBITDA development as decreased costs compensated for somewhat lower revenues
14
EPS DOWN DUE TO EURASIA
TOTAL EPS DEVELOPMENTSEK, continuing and discontinued operations
* Excluding income from associates and adjustment items
1.59
-0.16
0.08
M&A Q1 18
-0.09
Operatingincome*
Associatedcompanies
Provision reversal
0.00
Other Operations OtherQ1 17
-0.12
-0.95
0.09
-0.76
-1.75
CONTINUING OPERATIONS
DISCONTINUED OPERATIONS
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Q1 2017 positively impacted by a reversal of provision for the Uzbek legal investigation
Q1 2017 positively impacted by a reversal of provision for the Uzbek legal investigation
Mainly due to the Azercell disposalMainly due to the Azercell disposal
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Statements made in this document relating to future status or circumstances, including future performance and other trend projections are forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to many factors, many of which are outside the control of Telia Company.
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