Interdisciplinary Sovereign Debt Research and … 16 – August 7, 2017 Page 1 Interdisciplinary...
Transcript of Interdisciplinary Sovereign Debt Research and … 16 – August 7, 2017 Page 1 Interdisciplinary...
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InterdisciplinarySovereignDebtResearchandManagementConference
October5-6,2017TheGraduateInstituteofInternationalandDevelopmentStudies
Geneva,SwitzerlandSovereigndebtisatthecentreofthepolicydebateinbothadvancedandemergingeconomies,andacademicresearchinsovereigndebthasflourishedinrecentyears.However,knowledgeisoftenbuiltanddisseminatedwithindisciplinaryacademicsilos.Scholarsinanthropology,economics,finance,history,law,politicalscience,andsociologyapproachthesameurgentpolicyproblemswithdifferentquestionsandmethods.Law,market,and policy practitioners have yet more different perspectives on sovereign debt. This interdisciplinaryconference joins the conversation across disciplinary and institutional lines. Bringing all these perspectivestogether isnoteasybuttheeffort isworthwhilebecausemorerelevant, institutionally-groundedscholarshipwill leadtopoliciesinformedbycutting-edgeresearch,andultimately-wemusthope-fewercrisesandlesshumansuffering.ORGANISATIONThe two-day conferencewill take place at theGraduate Institute, Geneva, onOctober 5-6, 2017. ThemainorganisersaretheGraduateInstitute’sCentreforFinanceandDevelopmentincooperationwiththeUniversityofGeneva’sDepartmentofHistory,EconomicsandSociety,andtheInstituteofInternationalEconomicLawofGeorgetownUniversityLawCenter.The members of the Organising Committee are Marc Flandreau (University of Pennsylvania), Juan Flores(University of Geneva), Anna Gelpern (Georgetown Law), Mitu Gulati (Duke Law), Grégoire Mallard (TheGraduate Institute, Geneva), Ugo Panizza (The Graduate Institute, Geneva), Joost Pauwelyn (The GraduateInstitute,Geneva).SPONSOR
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THURSDAYOCTOBER5,2017-TheGraduateInstitute-MaisondelaPaix(2ACheminEugène-Rigot,1202Geneva)
8:15-8:40 REGISTRATION-TheGraduateInstitute-MaisondelaPaix–AtriumP2(2ACheminEugène-Rigot,1202GE)
8:40-10:10
PARALLELSESSIONS11A-SOVEREIGNDEBTRESTRUCTURINGI
Chair:YuefenLi(TheSouthCentre)• TheMacroeconomicEffectsofOfficialDebtRestructuring:EvidencefromtheParisClub
AitorErce(EuropeanStabilityMechanism)• SovereignDebtRestructuringinConditionsofExtremeUncertainty:SeveralLessonsfromHistory
MarkStumpf(Arnold&PorterKayeScholerLLP)• FromBrokertoJudge:TheEvolutionofSovereignDebtRestructuring,1980-2015
JérômeSgard(SciencePo)• TheTransformationofSovereignDebtDisputes:AnEmpiricalAnalysisofJudicialReasoningin
SovereignDebtLitigationMatthiasGoldmann(GoetheUniversityFrankfurt)andGrygoriyPustovit(GoetheUniversityFrankfurt)
1B-DEBTANDHUMANRIGHTSChair:StephanieBlankenburg(UNCTAD)TBC• DebateAboutHumanRightsandSovereignDebt
RosaMaríaLastra(QueenMaryUniversityofLondon)• SouthoftheBorder,WestoftheSun:Banks,Debt,andDictatorshipsinLatinAmericaduring1970s
CarloEdoardoAltamura(UniversityofGeneva)• DoStatesHaveaRighttoCredit?
MarcoMeyer(UniversityofGroningen)• ResponsibleLendingtoResponsibleSovereigns
BarryHerman(TheNewSchoolforPublicEngagement)• TheIntersectionofSovereignDebtandHumanRights
IliasBantekas(BrunelUniversityLondon)1C-MEASURINGDEBTVULNERABILITIES
Chair:MaryO’Sullivan(UniversityofGeneva)• RatingPrestige:SymbolicCapitalinEvaluationsofSovereignCreditworthiness
GozdeGuran(PrincetonUniversity)• RoleofCreditRatingAgenciesinSovereignDebtMarkets
AlineDarbellay(UniversityofGeneva)• DoesPublicDebtCrowdOutPrivateInvestment?EvidencefromFirmLevelData
Yi Huang (The Graduate Institute, Geneva), Ugo Panizza (The Graduate Institute, Geneva), andRichardVarghese(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)
• GovernmentForeignIndebtednessandSovereignDebtCrises:CaseStudiesofItalyandJapanLarryLiu(PrincetonUniversity)
• FromtheEssenceofSovereigntytoSovereigntyasan“Effect”:DebtDevicesinDifferentHistoricalandPoliticalContextsBenjaminLemoine(UniversitéParis-Dauphine)
10:10-10:25
Break(withcoffee/tea)
10:25-10:45
WELCOME
• UgoPanizza(PictetChairinFinanceandDevelopment;Director,CentreforFinanceandDevelopment,TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)
• AnnaGelpern(Professor,GeorgetownLawandNon-ResidentSeniorFellow,PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics)
10:45-12:15
ROUNDTABLE1:WHITHEREUROPE?
Moderator:ThorstenBeck(CassBusinessSchool,UniversityofLondon)
• MichelAglietta(CEPII)TBC• MariaCannata(ItalianMinistryofEconomy&Finance)• FrankGill(Standard&Poor’s)• YannisManuelides(Allen&Overy)• ChiaraZilioli(EuropeanCentralBank)
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12:15-14:00 LunchwithKeynote:MiguelMaduro(EuropeanUniversityInstitute)TBC(Byinvitation)
14:00-15:30
ROUNDTABLE2:BAIL-OUTANDBAIL-INSINSOVEREIGNDEBTCRISES:WHATISTHEROLEOFTHEOFFICIALSECTOR?
Moderator:CarloMonticelli(CouncilofEuropeDevelopmentBank)
• EmiliosAvgouleas(UniversityofEdinburgh)• ElenaDuggar(Moody’s)• RolfStrauch(EuropeanStabilityMechanism)• JerominZettelmeyer(PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics)
15:45-17:15
PARALLELSESSIONS22A-CRISESANDINDEXATION
Chair:RichardKozul-Wright(UNCTAD)TBC• ResponsibilityandReform:PublicFramingofSovereignDebtCrises
JeremyCohen(PrincetonUniversity)• SovereignContingentDebt
AndreaConsiglio(UniversityofPalermo)andStavrosZenios(Wharton)• LondonTermSheet:DevelopmentofaMarketforGDP-LinkedBonds
ChristianKopf(UnionInvestment)• TheHighlyIndebtedPoorCountryInitiativeinContext:Origins,Operations&Outcomes
TimonForster(UniversityofOxford)andAlexanderKentikelenis(UniversityofOxford)2B-COMPLEXITY,GOVERNANCEANDTRANSPARENCY
Chair:JoostPauwelyn(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)• TheTransparencyAdvantage?GovernmentChoicesoverBorrowingStrategies
LaynaMosley(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill)andPeterRosendorff(NYU)• CreditorCommitteesandtheQuestforSovereignDebtGovernance
StephenPark(UniversityofConnecticut)andTimSamples(UniversityofGeorgia)• AdjudicatingReputationinSovereignDebt
SadieBlanchard(YaleUniversity)• ComplexSystemicRiskandFinance
MiguelCenteno(PrincetonUniversity)• TechnologyandtheManagementofSovereignDebt
RossBuckley(UNSWSydney)2C-DEBTFORGIVENESSANDCIVILSOCIETY
Chair:JuanFloresZendejas(UniversityofGeneva)• ResponsibilityforUnsustainableSovereignDebtBurdensintheContextofStructuralInjustice
AnahíWiedenbrug(LondonSchoolofEconomics&PoliticalScience)• DemystifyingAlexanderNahumSackandtheDoctrineofOdiousDebt
EricToussaint(CADTMinternational–CommitteefortheAbolitionofIllegitimateDebt)• FromIdeastoActions.CivilSocietyStrategiesforChange
BodoEllmers(Eurodad–EuropeanNetworkonDebtandDevelopment)• TheLimitsofLawintheGlobalMobilisationforDebtForgiveness:FatalAmbiguitiesintheNew
InternationalEconomicOrderGrégoireMallard(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)
19:30 DinnerwithKeynote:TBC(Byinvitation)
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FRIDAYOCTOBER6,2017-TheGraduateInstitute-MaisondelaPaix(2ACheminEugène-Rigot,1202Geneva)
8:00-8:30 HELPDESK–TheGraduateInstitute-MaisondelaPaix-AtriumP2(2ACheminEugène-Rigot,1202Geneva)8:30-10:00
PARALLELSESSIONS33A-HISTORICALPERSPECTIVESONTHELAWANDECONOMICSOFBONDPRICESANDSOVEREIGNDEBTREPAYMENT
Chair:MarcFlandreau(UniversityofPennsylvania)• TheWarThatBondMarketsDidn’tPerceiveasSuch (ThePricesof SouthAfricanBondsDuring the
SecondAnglo-BoerWar:AnExtremeCaseofResilience)KimOosterlinckandMarieVanGansbeke(UniversitélibredeBruxelles)TBC
• ContractswithoutCourts:AnEmpiricalInvestigationoftheValueofContractualProtectioninanEraofAbsoluteSovereignImmunityBenChabot(FederalReserveofChicago)andVeronicaSantarosa
• TheExport-ImportBankanditsEffectsonDefaultManagementinthe1930sand1940sJuanFloresZendejas(UniversityofGeneva)andNorbertGaillard
• TheDawesBonds:SelectiveDefaultandInternationalTradeOlivierAccominotti(LondonSchoolofEconomics)TBC
3B-SOVEREIGNDEBTRESTRUCTURINGIIChair:GrégoireMallard(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)• AEurozoneSDRM:TheChallengeofDesigningaSchemethatIsCompatiblewiththeTFEU
ChristianHofmann(NationalUniversityofSingapore)andChristophPaulus• LessonsfromMexicoandArgentina
JacquesdeLarosière(BNPParibas)• ChallengingSovereignDebtRestructurings
HaykKupelyants(UniversityofCambridge)• RegulationofSovereignInsolvencyintheEuroArea
JochenAndritzky(GermanCouncilofEconomicExperts)• RestructuringVenezuelanDebt
MarkWalker(Millstein&Co)3C-CRISESANDCONTRACTS
Chair:TBC• GoForeignorStayLocal:ASovereign’sCostofCapital
IrvingdeLiraSalvatierra(MinistryofFinance,Mexico),MituGulati(DukeLawSchool),ElisabethdeFontenay(DukeLawSchool),andMichaelBradley(DukeLawSchool)
• SovereignDebtCrises:WhatHaveweLearned?JuanPabloBohoslavskyandKunibertRaffer(UniversityofVienna)
• SovereignBondsbyLaw:CanaStateDebtbeNon-Contractual?MathiasAudit(UniversitéParis1)
• Iceland’sCapitalControlsandtheResolutionofitsProblematicBankLegacyFriðrikMárBaldursson(ReykjavikUniversity)
• PegxitPressureKrisJamesMitchener(SantaClaraUniversity,LeaveySchoolofBusiness)andGonçaloPina
10:00-10:30 Break(withcoffee/tea)
10:30-12:00
ROUNDTABLE3:BANKLOANS,LOWINCOMECOUNTRIES,ANDISLANDECONOMIES
Moderator:AnnaGelpern(GeorgetownLaw)
• RezaBaqir(IMF)• AndrewPowell(Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank)• CatherineSchenk(OxfordUniversity)• DeborahZandstra(CliffordChance)
12:00-13:15
Lunch(standupinMaisondelaPaix,AtriumP1)(Byinvitation)
13:15-13:45
ROUNDTABLE4:TBA
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14:00-15:30
PARALLELSESSIONS44A-SOVEREIGNDEBTCONTRACTS
Chair:TBC• WhyAreSovereignDebtContractssoSticky?
AnnaGelpern(GeorgetownLaw),MituGulati(DukeLawSchool),andJerominZettelmeyer(PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics)
• The'abc'ofCreditorProtectioninSovereignDebtInstrumentsRodrigoOlivares-Caminal(QueenMaryUniversityofLondon)
• Anti-VultureLawLeentjeSourbron(HasseltUniversity)andLodeVereeck(HasseltUniversity)
• TheSeniorityStructureofSovereignDebtMatthiasSchlegl,ChristophTrebesch(KielInstitutefortheWorldEconomy),andMarkL.Wright(FederalReserveBankMinneapolis)
4B-THEAFTERMATHOFGREECEChair:TBC• Restructuring Government Debt under Local Law: The Greek Case and Implications for Investor
ProtectioninEuropeSebastianGrund(EuropeanCentralBank)
• PIIGSPierrePénet(UniversityofGeneva)
• BeyondtheSovereignDebtCrisis:ConstitutionalChangeinGreeceaftertheMemorandaAnnaTsiftsoglou(LondonSchoolofEconomics)
• DoesGreeceNeedMoreOfficialDebtRelief?IfSo,HowMuch?UgoPanizza(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva),EikeKreplin(GermanFederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandEnergy),andJerominZettelmeyer(PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics).
15:30-15:45
Break(withcoffee/tea)
15:45-17:15
PARALLELSESSIONS55A-SOVEREIGNDEBTRESTRUCTURINGIIISponsoredbytheCentreforInternationalGovernanceInnovation-CIGI
Chair:DomenicoLombardi(CIGI)• AssessingtheAppropriateSizeofReliefinSovereignDebtRestructuring
MartinGuzman(ColumbiaUniversity)andDomenicoLombardi(CIGI)TBC• GDP-IndexedBonds:AWayForward
GregoryMakoff(CIGI)• ModelLawtoImproveSovereignDebtRestructuringProcesses
Author(CIGI)TBC• InformalCreditorsandEfficientDebtWorkouts
SayantanGhosal(UniversityofGlasgow)withDaniaThomas(UniversityofGlasgow)
5B-DEFAULTS,HAIRCUTSANDFORGIVENESSChair:TBC• IsolatingtheRealEffectsof"Sovereign"DefaultRisk:EvidencefromPuertoRico
AnushaChari(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill),RyanLeary,andToanPhan• SovereignBondPrices,HaircutsandMaturity
TamonAsonuma(IMF),DirkNiepelt(StudyCenterGerzensee),andRomainRanciere• 200YearsofSovereignHaircutsandBondReturns
JosefinMeyer(KielInstitutefortheWorldEconomy),CarmenReinhart,andChristophTrebesch(KielInstitutefortheWorldEconomy)
• TheReluctantDefaulter:ATaleofHighGovernmentDebtFabrice Collard (University of Bern),Michel Habib (University of Zurich), and Jean-Charles Rochet(UniversityofGenevaandUniversityofZurich)
17:20-19:45
CLOSINGROUNDTABLE:SOVEREIGNDEBTANDTHEECONOMY:WHATHAPPENSNEXT?
Welcome:PhilippeBurrin(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)
Moderator:SoumayaKeynes(TheEconomist)
• JacquesdeLarosière(BNPParibas)• RandallKroszner(UniversityofChicago)• NourielRoubini(NewYorkUniversity)• HyunShin(BankforInternationalSettlements)• CharlesWyplosz(TheGraduateInstitute,Geneva)