Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network
description
Transcript of Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network
![Page 1: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network
LTC Brian AxelsenMAJ Steve Jones
![Page 2: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
U.S. Rail Network
• Vital to moving large amounts of goods between large population centers.
• a network of more than 140,000 miles • 43 percent of intercity freight volume• Shippers would pay $69-95 billion more per year
if all freight moved by rail were shifted to truck• On average, railroads are four times more fuel
efficient than trucks.
Source: http://www.aar.org - Association of American Railroads
![Page 3: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
US Rail Network
Class 1 Rail Network
![Page 4: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Model Scenario
• Determine the impact of a “dirty bomb” attack on the tradeflow between the two largest U.S. cities and the rest of the country.
• Multi-commodity (NYC and Los Angeles)– “New York” and “LA” commodities– Two of the most populous cities and busiest ports– Demand from each node is the tradeflow between
that node and NYC and LA– Supply is sum of all demand for each commodity
![Page 5: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Gravity Model
Tradeflow between nodes i and j
= Constant to adjust for scale
Economic mass of city (pop.)
GC Distance between nodes i and j
ij
ij
F
G
M
D
2i j
ijij
M MF G
D
• Basic theoretical model for trade• Used to evaluate NAFTA and WTO
![Page 6: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Model Scenario
• Nodes: 50 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and 20 key rail intersections.
• Edges: Represent multiple rail lines between two nodes.– Cost = $1 per tradeflow unit per mile– Very large capacity
![Page 7: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
US Rail Network
![Page 8: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
US Rail and Abstract Networks
5
4
3
2
1
67
10
89
17
15
14
13
1211
16
20
1819
27
25
24
23
22
21
26
30
28
29
37
35
34
33
32
3136
40
38
39
47
45
44
43
42
41
46
50
4849
5152
53
54
55
5657
58
5960
6162
64
![Page 9: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Abstract Network
5
4
3
2
1
67
10
89
17
15
14
13
1211
16
20
1819
27
25
24
23
22
21
26
30
28
29
37
35
34
33
32
3136
40
38
39
47
45
44
43
42
41
46
50
4849
5152
53
54
55
5657
58
5960
6162
64
![Page 10: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Measure of EffectivenessTotal economic cost of the supply and demand
model for tradeflow.– Shipping costs along usable edges– Cost of unsatisfied demand– Both NYC and LA commodities
![Page 11: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Operator’s/Attacker’s Problem
• Operator wants to satisfy all demand for each commodity at the minimum cost
• Attacker uses dirty bombs to maximize the cost of tradeflow between the two largest population centers and the rest of the country.
• Attacking an edge represents the incapacitation of the rail network between two MSA’s.
• Additional Constraint to Attacker: Edges originating from a supply node cannot be attacked.
![Page 12: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Operator Resilience Curve
Detroit Isolated
D.C Isolated
Pittsburg Shipping Restricted
Seattle Isolated
Boston Isolated
![Page 13: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
1 Attack
No City Isolated; increased cost to meet demand.
![Page 14: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
2 Attacks
Detroit Isolated
![Page 15: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
3 Attacks
Washington D.C Isolated
![Page 16: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
4 Attacks
Washington D.C and Virginia Beach Isolated; there is now “excess” supply in NY.
![Page 17: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
5 Attacks
No City Isolated; significantly increased cost; ¼ of supply cannot leave NY.
![Page 18: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
6 Attacks
No City Isolated; significantly increased cost; ¼ of supply cannot leave NY.
![Page 19: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
7 Attacks
Seattle Isolated; significantly increased cost; 1/4 of supply cannot leave NY.
![Page 20: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
8 Attacks
Boston Isolated; significantly increased cost; 1/3 of supply cannot leave NY.
![Page 21: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Model Extension
• Removed constraint that arcs coming from supply nodes cannot be attacked.– New York isolated first: consistent with Gravity
Model– Solutions are not nested– Costs increase by orders of magnitude upon
isolation of a supply node– Consistent with securing supply nodes
![Page 22: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Open Ended Analysis
• Total Economic activity: All nodes have supply to and demand from all other nodes.
• All Port Economic activity: All nodes with a port have supply to and demand from all other nodes.
• Split nodes in two to model attacking a city’s population as well as the network (Multi-objective model for the attacker)
• Adjust capacity based on number of nodes between two cities.
![Page 23: Interdicting Tradeflow on the U.S. Rail Network](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070502/56813c11550346895da589b8/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Summary and Conclusions
• Overall Resiliency of Rail Network– High physical capacity, especially east of
Mississippi– No single point of failure– No point of extreme vulnerability: Solutions not
nested.• Greatest increase in cost incurred by isolating
a transportation hub, not a city.