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Interactions between ICT and Transportation Systems: The Case Study of Telework

Professor Arpad Horvath Dr. Erasmia Kitou

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Consortium on Green Design and Manufacturing (CGDM)

University of California, Berkeley

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Telework Definition

Working partially or entirely at home or at a specifically assigned center instead of working at a company office. Telework is a more general term that encompasses the use of telecommunications and information technology for work purposes, typically away from a company office, and includes at-home workers who may never have a commute.

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Teleworkers Around the World

Europe: 1.2 to 4.6 million

Japan ~1 million

United States 1990: 4 million 1997: 11.1 million 2003: 19.6 million (20% of workforce)

Reliable estimates are unavailable

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Telework and the Government

The United States Congress and governmental agencies have been increasingly promoting and encouraging telework.

Currently: ~4.2% of 75,000 Federal employees in 63 agencies are teleworking.

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Non-Telework and Telework Implications

Non-telework impacts: 

EINTW= EITR+ EIWREE+EIWRHS+EIWOS        

Telework impacts:                        EITW= EIT    + EIEE     +  EIHS    +EIOS 

     (Note:  TR/T=transportation, WREE/EE=electronic and electrical equipment, WRHS/HS=house space, WOS/OS=office space)

+ + +

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Unit of Reference

The unit of reference is a 7-day week acknowledging that some may go to the office

on more than just 5 days during the week. telework could potentially induce non-commute

travel and additional energy use any given weekday.

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MS Excel-based Telework Tool

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E-Commutair (Web-based tool) Transportation Module

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E-Commutair Results Page

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Case Studies

Deterministic assessment (“typical” telework cases)Probabilistic assessment (Monte Carlo simulation)

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Purpose of Deterministic Study

Assess the role of geographical location in the telework modelPresent telework impacts as a function of transportation mode Use national survey data to get first estimate of telework effects

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Effect of Geographical Location onTelework Impacts

CO2 NOx SO2 CH4 CO N2O PM10 HC Hg State California 54,000 170 3 0.1 1,720 0.1 14 110 6.00E-06Illinois 65,000 200 120 0.2 1,690 0.3 14 110 4.00E-04New York 49,000 140 44 0.1 1,350 0.1 11 86 8.00E-05Georgia 62,000 190 110 0.1 1,660 0.3 13 110 2.00E-04Texas 65,000 190 39 0.1 1,770 0.2 14 110 3.00E-04 California 49,000 95 4 0.4 810 0.4 8 52 5.00E-05Illinois 74,000 150 150 0.8 800 0.9 9 51 5.00E-04New York 64,000 110 54 0.7 660 0.7 7 42 2.00E-04Georgia 60,000 130 140 0.5 780 0.7 8 50 3.00E-04Texas 62,000 130 48 0.5 830 0.6 8 53 4.00E-04 CO2 NOx SO2 CH4 CO N2O PM10 HC HgState California 61,000 170 10 0 1,720 0 14 110 0.00E+00Illinois 80,000 260 300 0.2 1,690 0.4 14 110 9.00E-04New York 58,000 160 100 0.1 1,350 0.2 11 86 2.00E-04Georgia 83,000 250 300 0.3 1,660 0.6 13 110 6.00E-04Texas 88,000 240 110 0.2 1,770 0.5 14 110 7.00E-04 California 41,000 89 11 0.1 800 0.1 7 52 9.00E-06Illinois 57,000 170 270 0.3 790 0.5 7 51 9.00E-04New York 42,000 95 94 0.2 650 0.2 5 42 2.00E-04Georgia 68,000 180 340 0.4 780 0.8 6 50 7.00E-04Texas 72,000 160 120 0.3 820 0.6 7 53 8.00E-04

NTW (grams/7-day week)Heating season

TW (grams/7-day week)

Cooling SeasonNTW (grams/7-day week)

TW (grams/7-day week)

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Grams of CO2 Emissions/7-day Week/Passenger from Transportation (Operation) (Assumed distance: 100 miles)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

"Typical" SUV "Typical" Compact Car

gram

s of

CO

2/10

0 m

iles/

pass

enge

r

Transportation El. Equipment/Heating/Lighting

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Grams of NOx Emissions/7-day Week from Transportation (Operation)(Assumed distance: 100 miles)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Car Commuter rail Amtrak Light rail Urban Transit Bus Commuter ExpressBus

Ferry (Natural Gas) Ferry (Diesel)

gram

s of

NO

x/10

0mile

s/pa

ssen

ger

-30%

Baseline

30%

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Deterministic Scenario Conclusions

The net impacts (EITW - EINTW) of telework programs differ by pollutant, state, and heating/cooling season. Reduction or elimination of commute-related travel may not always result in an overall environmentally preferable telework programTelework impacts vary based on the regional climate and the corresponding heating/cooling loads (home heating worse!)Choice of transportation mode can significantly affect the final results and can be crucial to the successful implementation of telework programs.

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Steps of the Probabilistic Analysis

Monte Carlo Simulation using Crystal BallSensitivity Analysis

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Probabilistic AnalysisCO2 SO2 NOx N2O CH4 CO PM10

mean -3,600 -4 -36 0.1 0.1 -120 -1.5st.dev 7,800 12 33 0.1 0.1 100 1.5mean 23,000 27 94 0.2 0.1 240 3.7st.dev 10,000 22 51 0.1 0.1 160 2.3mean 27,000 30 130 0.1 0.1 360 5.2st.dev 11,000 23 70 0.06 0.03 220 3.2mean 12,000 N/A 75 N/A N/A 240 N/Ast.dev 7,900 N/A 50 N/A N/A 160 N/Amean 18,000 N/A 110 N/A N/A 360 N/Ast.dev 11,000 N/A 69 N/A N/A 220 N/Amean 6,800 16 12 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.2st.dev 6,000 15 9 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.3mean 3,600 16 9 0.1 0.02 N/A N/Ast.dev 1,800 12 5 0.03 0.01 N/A N/Amean 2,500 11 6 0.03 0.02 N/A N/Ast.dev 1,400 9 4 0.02 0.01 N/A N/Amean 3,300 15 8 0.04 0.02 N/A N/Ast.dev 2,100 13 6 0.03 0.01 N/A N/Amean 1,900 0 1 0.03 0.04 0.6 0.1st.dev 800 0 1 0.02 0.02 0.3 0.1mean 2,000 0 2 0.04 0.04 0.7 0.1st.dev 1,000 0 1 0.02 0.02 0.3 0.1

TW-NTW

TWtotal

NTWtotal

TWTR

NTWL

TWHC

NTWHC

NTWTR

TWEE

NTWEE

TWL

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Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Critical Parameters

Transportation Non-Teleworking Part Teleworking Partavg. no. of passengers avg. no. of passengers

telecommuting distance telecommuting frequency

vehicle emissions no. of roundtrips

telecommuting distance

Electronic Equipment Non-Teleworking Part Teleworking Partdesktop energy consumption no. of hours

electricity emissions no. of loads

copier energy consumption telecommuting frequency

electricity emissions

Lighting Non-Teleworking Part Teleworking Partoffice space size office space size

type of office type of office

electricity emissions electricity emissions

Heating and Cooling Non-Teleworking Part Teleworking Partoffice space size office space size

% of the time office used (shared?) natural gas consumption

natural gas emissions natural gas emissions

Significant Variables

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Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Critical Parameters

CO, CO2, NOx N2O, CH4, PM, SO2, Hg CO, CO2, NOx N2O, CH4, PM, SO2, Hg  telecommuting distance   office space size   avg. no. of passengers   no. of hours  avg. no. of passengers   electricity emissions   telecommuting frequency   no. of loads

  natural gas emissions   no. of roundtrips   electricity emissions  telecommuting distance

NTW TW

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Probabilistic Scenarios Conclusions

Emissions associated with non-telework are higher, except for N2O and CH4, but their absolute values are negligible compared to CO2.

Large standard deviations suggest that the choice and value of the variables may change the final ratio between telework and non-telework impacts. Total costs could be reduced when implementing a telework program. However, when examining the individual components of the model it appears that non-telework and telework related costs for lighting, heating and cooling are comparable.Rebound effects can significantly affect not just the transportation-, but also the company and home office-related effects.The success of a telework program depends on commuting patterns, induced energy usage, and characteristics of office and home space use. Home and company office energy related parameters although not significant when exploring CO, CO2 and NOX they are important when examining the remaining pollutants.

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E-Commutair

http://cgdm.berkeley.edu/cgdmSoftware.html