Intelligence Report Series - MAST...Indian Ocean region Somalia Yemen Yemen Ports Mediterranean...

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“Making the world a safer place to live and work”2nd August 2017 Issue 87

Intelligence Report Series

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“Making the world a safer place to live and work”

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The Maritime Intelligence Report Series focuses on:

• Operational risks in areas of instability which could affect the safety of commercial and private vessels and personnel ashore and at sea.

• In country reporting on key countries where civil con-flict are directly impacting on maritime operations; and

• Reporting and analysis of incidents of terrorism, pi-racy and other related criminal activity. MAST has a global reach and presence, delivering firsthand, accurate and exclusive intelligence. MAST isentrenched and committed in continuing to supportand promote the awareness of the very real risks thatseafarers and other stakeholders face. This Intelligence Report Series is a brief snapshot ofMAST’s Intelligence capabilities. MAST Intelligencespecialises in providing clients with a suite of products and services, including; political and economic risk analysis, detailed port and vessel security briefs, vessel passage plans, threat and risk mitigation and travel risk management. Working closely in conjunction with a host of experts,MAST Intelligence offers a market leading service per-taining to all maritime affairs.

Follow MAST on LinkedIn and Twitter to keep abreast with these insightful weekly reports and more — in-cluding real time security updates.

Editor: David Riderwww.mast-security.com

2nd August 2017

Issue 87 of the series reviews, analyses and threat assesses the fragile and conflict affected coastal states Libya, Somalia and Yemen. The Mediterranean migrant crisis, incidents affecting maritime security and influencing maritime news are also reported and analysed, focusing on the keys theatres of maritime instability.


Issue 87

Contents:Mast Services

Indian Ocean region

Somalia

Yemen

Yemen Ports

Mediterranean

Libya

Gulf of Guinea

South East Asia

Central & South America

Severe Weather Warnings

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Indian Ocean Region Sri Lanka has signed a $1.1bn (£837m) deal with China for the control and development of the southern deep-sea port of Hambantota. The deal had been delayed by several months over concerns that the port could be used by the Chinese military. The government has given assurances that China will run only commercial operations from the port, on the main shipping route between Asia and Europe.

Incidents: 1. MV reported approached on 3 occasions by 1 skiff travelling at 25Kts on the MV’s starboard side between 1630 - 1730 UTC in position 14:16N - 051:08E in vicinity of point B IRTC (around 20nm N of IRTC), Gulf of Aden. Closest skiff approached MV was within 1 cable. Embarked AST fired warning shots and the skiff turned away. Vessel and crew are SAFE. Reported July 29th (UK-MTO).

US Navy fires warning shots at Iranian vesselsOn Tuesday 25th and Friday 28th, US Navy ships responded to close approaches by elements of Iran’s IRGC Navy with warning shots and flares in the Persian Gulf, US media reported.

Spain Hands Over Op Atalanta Force Command to ItalyOn Thursday 27th, Rear Admiral Rafael Fernández-Pintado (Spanish Navy) handed over force command of the EU’s coun-ter-piracy ‘Operation Atalanta’ to Rear Admiral Fabio Gregori (Italian Navy) during a ceremony in Djibouti.

India: Parliament Passes Bill To Replace 170-Year-Old Maritime LawsLegislation which aims to establish a legal framework for con-

solidation of maritime laws and to confer admiralty jurisdiction on all high courts of the coastal states in the country has been passed by both the houses of Parliament.

Kenya calls for further joint efforts to combat piracy in AfricaKenya has challenged African countries to establish an inter-agency coordination to help in the fight piracy.

Threat AssessmentTo read about MAST’s services in the Indian Ocean Region, please click here.

Hijack

Kidnap

Approach/Attack

Suspicious Activity Theft

1st December 2015 HRA limits


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SomaliaAl Shabaab ambushed a convoy carrying troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) early on Sunday 30th in the Bulamareer district of the Lower Shabelle region, about 140 km (85 miles) southwest of Mogadishu, Colonel Hassan Mohamed told Reuters. The fighting saw at least 24 fatalities among the peacekeepers.

Control of Somali territory (February 2017) Source: Wikime-dia Commons

Al Shabaab commander killed in airstrikeUS military sources said on Monday 31st that they killed senior Al Shabaab leader, Ali Mohamed Hussein in an airstrike on an AS base near Tortoroow, Lower Shabelle.

Al Shabaab Forces Burned VillagesAl Shabaab burned numerous homes in raids on villages in So-malia’s Lower Shabelle region in late May 2017, Human Rights Watch said today based on witness accounts and satellite im-agery analysis. Al Shabaab fighters abducted civilians, stole live-stock, and committed arson in attacks that caused more than 15,000 people to flee their homes.

Somali security forces turn against each otherSix Somali soldiers were killed in a shootout on Wednesday 26th between two government security agents who turned on each other near the presidential palace in the capital Mogadishu.

Al Shabaab/ISIS• Al Shabaab militants ambushed a Ugandan African Union Mis-sion in Somalia (AMISOM) convoy in Golweyn village in Bulo Marer district in Lower Shabelle region on July 30th. Somali of-ficials claimed that al Shabaab killed nearly 18 AMISOM troops in the ambush.• An AS militant detonated a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) near a police station in Waberi dis-trict in Mogadishu on July 30th.• AS claimed an attack on a Somali National Army (SNA) bar-racks in Afgoi, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia on July 27th.• AS militants shelled an AMISOM base in Jalalaqsi town, Hiraan region, central Somalia on July 27th.

AnalysisAl Shabaab continues to mount operations against civilian and military targets in Somalia, seizing military bases and equip-ment before being driven off by AMISOM forces. The group has been increasingly active in recent weeks, despite combined ac-tion against them from Somali, African Union and US forces. Threat AssessmentPirate action groups remain a threat to shipping in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. Approaches in the BAM and Red Sea remain commonplace and all vessels should update their Risk Assessments accordingly. The current monsoon period will see smaller vessels seek more sheltered waters, meaning coastal areas in the Gulf of Aden and BAM remain perilous. We an-ticipate an increase in reports as legitimate pattern of local life traffic is wrongly identified as hostile as a result.Pirate attacks off Somalia and suspicious approaches in the Gulf of Aden continue to be a cause for concern. The ongo-ing threat to shipping in the region has been made clear by the military bodies which monitor the region. A lack of adher-ence to BMP4 protocol, particularly not maintaining a safe distance off the coast, has increased risks to shipping. BMP4 advises: “non-Somali fishing vessels should avoid operating or transiting within 200nm of the coast of Somalia, irrespective of whether or not they have been issued with license to do so”. Merchant vessels would be wise to maintain the same distance from the coast, particularly ensuring that the Socotra Gap isn’t taken. All vessels are advised to update risk assessments and register with UKMTO/MSCHOA prior to entering the Indian Ocean High Risk Area.



Under control of Al Shabaab and allies Under control of neutral forces Under control of Government and allies Somaliland Government Territory disputed by Puntland and Somaliland

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Control of Yemen territory (July 31st 2017)

Source: Wikimedia Commons

YemenThe Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen’s government said Shiite Al Houthi rebels on Saturday 29th used a remote-controlled boat packed with explosives to attack the Red Sea port of Mokha, but without caus-ing casualties. “On Saturday at dawn, Al Houthi militiamen targeted the port of Mokha with a remotely guided vessel full of explosives,” a statement from the coalition said.

Yemen government will not let Houthis keep HodeidahThe Saudi-backed Yemeni government will not allow its Houthi foes to keep the Red Sea port of Hodeidah, the information minister said, underlining its intention to remove the vital aid delivery point from the control of the Iran-aligned group.

AQAP/Houthi-Saleh• Al Houthi-Saleh media reported that several medium-range “Borkan-1” ballistic missiles targeted King Fahd air base in Ta’if region, western Saudi Arabia on July 27th.

Threat Assessment On June 14th, a UAE coalition warship was struck by a missile as it left the port of Mokha in Yemen. The attack was claimed by Houthi rebels and video claiming to be of the night attack was posted on social media channels, showing a large explosion on impact. The coalition reports that one crew member was injured during the incident and that the ship suffered minimal damage. There is industry speculation that the type of missile used in the attack was not fit for purpose against a warship, and could in fact have been a anti-tank missile. The successful attack on June 14th and two attacks against military vessels in July demonstrate that the Houthi’s retain the capability to accu-rately launch missiles from shore to sea. It should be noted that all missile attacks to date during the Yemen civil war have been directed at military targets, not commercial vessels. However, the risk of mistargeting or collateral damage remains.To read the MAST assessment of the incident, please click here. June saw nine suspected approaches and incidents involving multiple skiffs off the Yemen coast in the Bab el-Mandeb, with at least four reports emerging during July. Weapons were sighted on board the majority of the vessels which shadowed and fol-

lowed MVs. Media reports that Houthi rebels have been plant-ing sea mines in the waters around Hodeidah Port are a clear concern for merchant vessels transiting the region and CSOs should ensure their risk assessments are updated. Accounts of suspect activity, including approaches have been recorded in the eastern IRTC within the vicinity of al Mukallah. New advice from the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), rec-ommends that merchant traffic transiting the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea are advised to pass through the area between 44 00 East in the Gulf of Aden and 13 00 N in the Southern Red Sea during the hours of darkness and exit the Traffic Separation Scheme to the West of the Hanish Islands in daylight hours. The frequency of these incidents, where vessels are approached and in some cases attacked by armed men in small boats, in-dicates that the threat assessment remains ‘Substantial’ – an attack is a strong possibility. The Yemen civil war is on-going and there has been some spill over into the maritime domain. Houthi’s have specifically targeted the Saudi coalition with pre-cision weapon systems. The apparent continued use of locally produced moored mines by the Houthi’s off the Port of Hodei-dah is of concern, given that sea mines are more indiscriminate in terms of their potential targets. These mines might become a threat to shipping should they float free into the BAM shipping lanes. Reports that Houthi rebels attacked a ship off Mokha on June 26th remain unconfirmed.

MAST recommends BMP measures be enforced and watches strengthened during transits in the region. In the Gulf of Aden, MAST’s advice for passage planning is to follow the guidance laid down by UKMTO/MSCHOA and the latest from the CMF. Vessels should keep clear of al Mukallah and remain in the IRTC, where warship protection is more likely.

Houthi

Pro Hadi Government Forces

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)



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UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism for Yemen (UNVIM)

The UN’s Secretary-General has decided to institute a UNVIM for the facilitation of commercial imports to Yemen, at the request of the Government of the Republic of Yemen and in line with Security Council resolution 2216 (2015).

UNVIM is operational with immediate effect. Shipping companies or vessel owners shipping commercial goods or services to any port not under the direct control of the Government of Yemen (Salif, Mokha, Hudaydah and associated oil terminals) need to ap-ply for permits upon departure of the port of origin of their cargo. For further details click here.

UN arms embargo imposed by UN Security Council Resolution 2216 of 2015 is in place.

Port Aden:

• The port of Aden is under the protection of the Republic of Yemen security forces.

• Merchant vessels wishing to enter Yemeni ports must first apply for a permit through the Yemeni Ministry of Transportation; contact: [email protected] for more information.

• Final clearance to enter Yemeni ports (with permits in place) is authenticated by the coalition guard ship.

• Port Ash Shihr: Fully operational. Port Salif: Fully operational.

Port Hudaydah: Fully operational.

Port Mokha: Status - Closed: Currently classified as ‘Not Safe’.

Port Al Mukalla: Fully operational.

Port of Balhaf: Status - Closed: LNG terminal remains closed. Now under control of Saudi and Yemeni forces.

Port of Ras Isa: Status - Closed. Safer oil terminal remains closed, Safer Company (SEPOC) does not allow vessels to berth at Safer Marine Terminal if they do not have an agreement signed by them according to the protocol between buyer and Yemeni government.

Yemen PortsThe Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen’s government said Shiite Al Houthi rebels on Saturday 29th used a remote-controlled boat packed with explosives to attack the Red Sea port of Mokha, but without causing casualties. “On Saturday at dawn, Al Houthi militiamen targeted the port of Mokha with a remotely guided vessel full of explosives,” a statement from the coalition said. The risk of sea mines and possible attack against merchant vessels remains high in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and off Yemeni ports. Please see MAST’s standing advice in our Yemen section.



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Mediterranean Aid workers have accused the EU of “wilfully letting people drown in the Mediterranean” as they face being forced to suspend rescue missions for refugees attempting the world’s deadliest sea crossing. Italy is attempting to impose a code of conduct on NGOs operating ships in the search and rescue zone off the coast of Libya, which is now the main launching point for migrants trying to reach Europe on smug-glers’ boats. So far, only MOAS and Save the Children have signed the Italian government’s new Code of Conduct for NGO rescue missions.

Amnesty aghast at Italy’s bid to send warships to Libyan wa-tersProposals to send warships to police Libyan territorial waters are a shameful attempt by the Italian authorities to circum-vent their duty to rescue refugees and migrants at sea and to offer protection to those who need it, Amnesty International said on Monday, ahead of a vote in the Italian parliament on Tuesday August 1st.

Spain pulls 60 migrants from 3 boatsSpain’s maritime rescue service says it has removed 60 mi-grants from three boats trying to cross the Strait of Gibraltar from Morocco. The maritime service said on Saturday 29th that its rescue ship Arcturus made two separate rescues, first pulling 13 migrants from a boat and then taking on another 10 from a second craft before it returned to shore.

Irish navy rescues 109 off Libyan coastAn Irish navy vessel rescued 109 migrants off Libya’s coast on Sunday 30th, following a request from the Italian Maritime Rescue Co-Ordination Centre. The LÉ William Butler Yeats took four hours to rescue the migrants off Tripoli, before providing food and medical treatment.

France Wants to Open Asylum Processing Centres in LibyaThe president of France says his country will set up asylum processing centres in Libya to stop people from taking the dangerous trip across the Mediterranean. Emmanuel Macron said July 27th, “The idea is to create hotspots to avoid people taking crazy risks when they’re not all eligible for asylum. We’ll go to them.”

The current migrant smuggling situationWhile migrant figures for July were down significantly on 2016, with 13,750 crossings this year as opposed to 25,930, the sud-den bursts of activity still pose a challenge for rescuers. The on-going dispute over Italy’s new Code of Conduct for NGO rescue missions suggests it will be some time before many groups (MSF included) sign off on the document. Suggestions that France wishes to screen migrants before they leave Libya will be welcomed by many EU states, but charities may demand more is done to protect migrants refused asy-lum and left in Libya; there are concerns about migrant welfare throughout the country. It is not yet known how any Italian naval patrols will be received in Libyan waters. It was initially believed that Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) had backed the move, but this has now been denied. Without permission, the Italian Navy will not be welcomed by Libyan naval assets.

Map depicting major migrant routes in the Mediterranean (Aug 1st 2017). Source: UNHRC


Migrant crossings 2015-2017. Source: UNHRC


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LibyaA fighter jet from eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army was shot down in Dahr Al-Hamer district in Derna and its two crew detained, an air force spokesman said on Sat-urday. The coastal city of Derna - 348 km (216 miles) east of Benghazi - is under the control of a coalition of Islamist militants and ex-rebels called Majlis Shura Mujahideen Derna. The city has been besieged by Haftar’s LNA’s forces, who launch occasional airstrikes, for more than three years.


Paris hand-shakes on Libya peace deal mask deep fracturesKhalifa Haftar, the most powerful military leader in eastern Lib-ya, was smiling when he shook hands with Libyan Prime Minis-ter Fayez al-Sarraj on a deal for a ceasefire and Spring elections. But hours later, Haftar exposed the reality of deep fractures in Libya’s political landscape, saying any ceasefire was limited, he actually had no interest in elections and Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj’s power-sharing council was in the grip of terrorists.

AnalysisField Marshal Haftar has announced the liberation of Benghazi, as expected, although fighting continues in the Kharabish neigh-bourhood of the city. The cordial talks in Paris between Haftar and the GNA Prime Minister have been somewhat overshad-owed by Haftar’s comments to the press after the event, where he played down peace talks and possible elections in favour of a military solution. This will not please EU nations seeking a solu-tion via dialogue. There has been no news on when peace talks between the House of Representatives (HoR) and GNA may take place. The increase in Libyan oil production continues to dent OPEC ef-forts to reduce oversupply and control prices, with the oil price losing ground once again as Libyan production hits 1.1 million barrels per day. Libya will likely resist efforts to cap production, given its economy is still recovering and oil exports are a signifi-cant revenue stream. There are political considerations at play, too, since the largely independent National Oil Company (NOC) would have to request Haftar’s forces support their effort to re-duce production. Oil industry sources say that there is further talk aimed at capping production in the country, but traders say that demand for oil is now beginning to outstrip supplies, which may have some bearing on any negotiations between OPEC and

Libya’s NOC.Ports currently operational in Libya are: Mellitah, Zawiyah, Trip-oli, Misrata, Marsa El Brega, Tobruk, Al Khoms, Marsa El Hariga. Farwah, Bouri, Zuwarah, Zuetina and Es Sider.

Threat AssessmentWith Libya’s focus on maintaining oil output in order to feed the economy, there are risks to the oil and gas sector from militias loyal to the GNA unity government who have attacked termi-nals and pipelines in the past. Recent calls by the National Oil Company (NOC) to the EU, asking for EUNAVFOR engagement in anti-fuel smuggling interdictions are unlikely to be met by the EU. Instead, further equipment and training has been offered to the Libyan Coast Guard. The suggested Code of Conduct for NGO rescue missions operating off the coast of Libya would see the Coast Guard given more control over rescue missions, and further equipment and funding has been promised by the EU this week. This may see an increased CG presence in the region and Masters should be aware.Vessels should ensure they have the correct permission from the appropriate authority before entering Libyan waters. There have been reports of Libyan Coast Guard vessels abusing their power, particularly concerning migrants. The majority of vessels calling at Libyan ports are trouble free, however there is scope for vessels to encounter local issues. It is advised that before visiting a risk assessment is conducted on the area of operation and the fast moving political and military situations monitored closely.

MAST is able to provide risk assessments and crew training to improve situational awareness and risk appreciation. The addi-tional threat to shipping should not be taken lightly.

Control of Northern Libyan territory (August 1st 2017)

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Controlled by the Tobruk led government

Controlled by the Government of National Accord

Controlled by ISIS

Controlled by local forces

Controlled by Tuareg forces



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Gulf of GuineaA militant group, the Niger Delta Revolutionary Crusaders, has threatened to resume attacks on oil fa-cilities on September 31st, 2017. The Crusaders said the decision to resume hostilities followed what it termed failure of the federal government to address issues raised during the visits of Acting President Yemi Osinbajo to the region.

Incidents: 1. Overnight 29/30 July, general cargo ship reported attacked and boarded by pirates in position 04:10.12N - 006:59.44E, around 16nm SSW of Bonny Island, Nigeria. Five crew reported kidnapped. Awaiting further details. Reported July 31st (MDAT).2. A fishing boat approached and attempted to board a bulk carrier underway at 0249 UTC in position 15:31.9N - 018:10W, around 65nm NW of Dakar, Senegal. Alarm raised, all crew mus-tered, Master increased speed and conducted evasive manoeu-vre. Due to bad weather, vessel managed to evade the board-ing. All crew safe. Reported July 22nd (IMB). (Not illustrated)

Niger Delta threatens to end peace talks with FGPan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) has threatened to pull out of negotiations with the Federal Government (FG) if the 16-point agenda it submitted last year are not addressed by November 1st, 2017. Leaders of the group, led by Edwin Clark, stated their position at a press briefing in Abuja on Monday July 31st.

Nigeria says all kidnapped members of oil survey team res-cuedNigeria’s military has rescued all members of an oil survey team kidnapped by suspected Boko Haram militants, it said in a state-ment on Wednesday, after they were taken in the country’s

conflict-ridden northeast. The corpses of nine soldiers and a ci-vilian were also recovered during the rescue, the military said. The NNPC did not immediately respond to calls for comment.

Nigeria’s Oil Production Helps Keep Oil Prices LowAlong with Libya and Venezuela, Nigeria is an OPEC wildcard. Exempt from the promised production cuts started in January, Nigeria (along with Libya) have been offsetting OPEC’s reduc-tion, adding nearly 100,000 b/d in output from May to June alone, a quarter of OPEC’s total increase. A few days ago, Ni-geria voluntarily agreed to limit its oil output to 1.8 million b/d. The economic effect within Nigeria may see that change and industry analysts are monitoring the situation closely.

Threat AssessmentTo read MAST’s current Threat Assessment on the Gulf of Guin-ea region, please click here.

Kidnap

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5°00’

4°00’

3°30’

7°00’6°30’ 7°30’5°00’ 5°30’ 6°00’ 8°00’4°30’

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South East AsiaPolice said suspected Abu Sayyaf militants on Monday 31st beheaded seven men who allegedly de-stroyed a rubber plantation owned by their leader in the southern Philippines. The decapitated bodies of the victims were found in the town of Lantawan in Basilan province, 900 km south of Manila, on Sun-day, said Chief Superintendent Reuben Theodore Sindac, a regional police director.

Hijack

Kidnap

Approach/Attack

Suspicious Activity

Incidents: Nothing significant to report.

Two vessels detained over illegal oil transferTwo vessels suspected of carrying out illegal ship-to-ship oil transfer were detained by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency off Labuan last night (July 31st). MMEA Labuan enforce-ment chief Capt Che Adnan Md Isa said patrolling officers spot-ted the vessels at 10.50pm, 6.5 nautical miles south of Labuan.

Crew member of Thai tanker goes missing in waters off MoribA crew member of a Thai tanker was reported missing after falling overboard about 11 nautical miles south west of Morib, near here, yesterday evening (July 31st). District Maritime direc-tor, Maritime Captain Abu Zaki Mohammad said the incident took place when the tanker was heading to Papua New Guinea from Port Klang, near here.

2 headless bodies found in Basilan, PhilippinesResidents of Switch Yakal in Lantawan town and Upper Garlayan in Maluso town in Basilan recovered two headless bodies at around 3 p.m. on Saturday 29th. Police said the identities of the victims had not been confirmed, but several persons had been reported missing or kidnapped in Maluso last week.

Government forces pound Abu Sayyaf with artillery in SuluPhilippine government forces launched heavy artillery against

the Abu Sayyaf group after the local government of Patikul town, Sulu implemented forced evacuation of residents on Thursday 27th, according to officials.

Mindanao Conflict Risks Spike in Southeast Asia PiracySoutheast Asia’s piracy problem could be about to take a dra-matic turn for the worse. The escalating militancy on the Phil-ippines’ southernmost island of Mindanao – which has drawn in foreign fighters and developed an international-jihadist ele-ment not previously seen in the region – could result in a period of prolonged instability and lawlessness, creating the perfect conditions for a new wave of piracy to develop and thrive.

Threat AssessmentTo read MAST’s current Threat Assessment on the South East Asia region, please click here.MAST is able to provide an armed protection solution to clients transiting the region. Please contact us for further details.


Theft


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Central and South America Nothing significant to report.

Incidents: Nothing significant to report.

Standing advice: The repercussions of a vessel being caught acting as a mule with drugs stowed will depend on the type, amount and national laws, but may be disruptive and costly. When and if operating in these areas, especially Columbia and Peru, it is advised that: • Potential stowage areas such as rudder shafts are denied as far as possible, and/or routinely searched. • Access points are closely monitored by a vigilant watch for the duration of the vessel’s call at port.

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Severe Weather Warnings Warnings detailed on this page are from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and are issued by respective Regional Specialised Metrological Centres, Tropical Cyclone Centres or National Meteoro-logical Services. For further information on severe weather warnings please click here.

Note: The forecasts are correct as of the day before publication. For latest updates please follow the provided links.

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