Integration of Climate Mitigation into Integration of Climate Mitigation into National policiesNational policies

A Framework for Analysis of China’s sA Framework for Analysis of China’s sustainable development policiesustainable development policies

Xiangyang WUXiangyang WUResearch Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD)Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD)

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

Workshop on BASICBeijing, 18 February 2006

OutlineOutline

Introduction

The relevance of SD policies to CC mitigation

Understanding the impact: a framework for analysis

SD policies to CC mitigation

Case study: energy saving policies

Conclusions and suggestions

Introduction Introduction

China has no climate change policies, but has sustainable development policies and measures relevant to CC.

As China’s national strategy, sustainable development has been taken as the primary objective for policy making

China has been contributing to climate mitigation through improving energy efficiency, developing renewable energy, afforestation, family planning, poverty alleviation, etc.

SD Policies

Climate Policies

Policies Relevant to

CC

Non-CC policies

Policy areas: implications for Policy areas: implications for CC mitigationCC mitigation

Economy

policies

Environmental policies

Social policies

SD Policies

The relevance of policies to CC The relevance of policies to CC mitigationmitigation

Criteria: positive /negative impact on GHG emissions ？

Measurement: cost-effectiveness of reductions and potentials for mitigation CC mitigation: a co-benefit from SD policies Inadequate information for measurement

Framework of Policy Evaluation Framework of Policy Evaluation

Orientation of SD policies Its primary objective Its coverage? national, sectoral, or local? Its mechanism for implementation: incentive, comp

ulsory, voluntary, guidance?

Implementation: cost and its effect

Implication to GHG emissions, ↑↑ ，↓，↓ ?

Prospects for integration

Major SD Policies with direct Major SD Policies with direct relevance to CC mitigationrelevance to CC mitigation

Climate Change

Energy policiesEnvironmental/

ecological policies

Social policiesFamily

PlanningPoverty

Alleviation

Energy industry institutional reformOptimizing energy structure

Energy saving

Forest

Air pollution control

China’s energy policies (1)China’s energy policies (1)

Institutional reform in energy industry: market liberalization ↑ Price controlled by government dual price system (g

overnment + market) market price Examples

• Coal sector: 1987, govt price and market price; 2002, market price only.

• Power sector: 2002, institutional reform against monopoly, divided into generation enterprises and power grid enterprises. Separated govt. function and enterprises.

China’s energy policies (2)China’s energy policies (2)

Policies in optimizing energy structure: cleaner ↓ Renewable energy: (a) plan: the development plan of

new and renewable energy(1995), the 10th Five-year plan of … and 2000-2015 plan of … (b) the Renewable Energy Law(2005).

Shut down small thermal power units. Encourage CHP

Use new- and advanced-technology in thermal power plants

Renewable achievement Renewable achievement

Wind power:

Small hydro:

By 2004 ， solar PV cell:60MW, solar heater: 65million m2,a share of 40% in the world.

Bio-methane in Rural areas: 11 million digesters, 5.5 billion m3 per year 。

1994: renewable energy 10.26 Mtce. 2000: 33.57Mtce.

150 1060

9520

20529

26760

32600

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1959 1979 1985 1998 2002 2003

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (

MW)

30

375

760

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1994 2000 2004

inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (

MW) Wind power

Small hydro

Energy saving policies: reduce ↓(case study)

Major SD Policies with direct Major SD Policies with direct relevance to CC mitigationrelevance to CC mitigation

Climate Change

Energy policiesEnvironmental /

Ecological policies

Social policiesFamily

PlanningPoverty

Alleviation

Energy industry institutional reformOptimizing energy structure

Energy saving

Forest

Air pollution control

Environmental / ecological Environmental / ecological policies (1)policies (1)

Air pollution control ↓↓ Polluter pays: introduced in 1982 Emission permit system (1994) Plan of Total Emission Control (1996) SO2 pollutions control zone & acidity control zone

(1998) Air Pollution Prevent and Control Law (2000): the pilot program of SO2 Emission Trading (2002) 10th Five-year Plan: 2005 SO2 emission reduce

20% on 2000. HOWEVER,

15. 9 14. 6 16. 1 15. 7 15. 617. 9 18. 9

5. 0 4. 0 3. 8 3. 8 3. 6 3. 7 3. 6

20. 918. 6 20. 0 19. 5 19. 3

21. 6 22. 5

0. 04. 08. 0

12. 016. 020. 024. 0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004年

MtTotal SO2 emission

Industry SO2 emission

household SO2 emission

Why?

Environmental / ecological Environmental / ecological policies (2)policies (2)

Forestry ↓ The Forest Law (1979, revised in 1998) barren land and mountainous areas: long term leas

e for private investment allowed Land use change: sloping farmland to forest (startin

g from 2000, in 17 provinces) No disturbance for natural re-generation policy: 30.

2 m ha Tree planting: by 2000 ， 46.67m ha

Major SD Policies with direct Major SD Policies with direct relevance to CC mitigationrelevance to CC mitigation

Climate Change

Energy policiesEnvironmental /

Ecological policies

Energy industry institutional reformOptimizing energy structure

Energy saving

Forest

Air pollution control

Family Planning

Poverty Alleviation

Social policies

Social policiesSocial policies

Poverty alleviation policies ： combined with rural energy development and ecological protection ↓

1985-2000, 3 rounds of the programs for building rural preliminary electrification counties through small hydro development.

Alleviation poverty through giving science and technology, education to … 2500 million 2.9 million

Family planning policy ↓ Family planning: 1970s, “late, wide interval, less“ ， 1980s,

”only one ”. prediction: the peak will be 1.465 billion in 2030, will not

exceed 1.5 billion. Avoidance of births: 300 million.

Case studyCase study: energy saving : energy saving policies evaluationpolicies evaluation

primary objective: reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency

CC implication: mitigation

Policies introduced: Energy Saving Law (1997) management rules for main energy-consume

enterprises (1999) energy saving product certificate

IncentivesIncentives

Grants and subsidies: Direct investment and low interest loans. key energy saving projects Energy technologies R&D, demonstration and deployment

Energy related funds: set up by government, local authorities and power companies

State owned investment company: CECIC sep up by government in 1998

ESCo: since 1997, 60 ESCo has established to implement over 500 projects, invest 1.4 billion and achieve 1.75 Mtce energy saving.

Deposit refund: to encourage deployment of energy saving construction materials

Energy saving products list: encourage its deployment by governmental procurement

Ambitious Targets in the 11th Ambitious Targets in the 11th Five-year Plan (2006-2010)Five-year Plan (2006-2010)

National goals: to reduce energy intensity 20%, to control GHGs emissions

“Energy Conservation Plan” : specific targets: set up for main energy intensive products, ene

rgy consuming equipment and energy management 3 Priority areas : industry, transport, buildings of business an

d residents 10 Key energy saving projects 10 Supportive policies and measures, emphasizing necessity to

introduce market-based incentives and new initiatives and enhancing energy management to large energy user

Achievement: Energy Intensity Achievement: Energy Intensity decreaseddecreased

2.892.79

2.572.4

2.26 2.18 2.111.92

1.711.6

1.51 1.47 1.45 1.5 1.58 ?

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5Equivalent to 700 Mtce of Energy saving, 1050 Mt SO2 and 440 MtC emission

s reduction

GDP is Calculated with comparable price in 2000;

Problems on energy saving Problems on energy saving policiespolicies

Weak implementation: rules were not obeyed strictly.

Insufficient incentives

energy saving policies were not harmonized.

Conclusions and suggestionsConclusions and suggestions

China’s SD policies (energy, environmental / ecological and social policies) lead to positive contribution to CC mitigation

Policy-coordination is necessary to address CC

Integrating CC into SD framework

Next stepNext step

Typical cases with cost and benefit analysis on several key policies Policy making cost, implemental cost, supervising

cost, etc. Benefit: refer mostly to GHG emission,

environmental, ecological and social aspects.

Comparative analysis among different policies

How to highlight CC initiatives in SD framework