Integrating Land Use Planning into the CBP Phase 5 Watershed Model & Tributary Strategies
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Transcript of Integrating Land Use Planning into the CBP Phase 5 Watershed Model & Tributary Strategies
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Integrating Land Use Planning into the CBP Phase 5 Watershed Model
& Tributary Strategies
Presented by:Peter Claggett, USGS
June 13, 2004
Maryland Department of Planning
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Over the past decade in the Bay watershed:
• Population increased 8.2% and
• Impervious cover increased 40.7 %
“If recent trends continue, the area of developed land in the (Bay) watershed will increase by more than 60% by 2030.”
~ “Chesapeake Futures: Choices for the 21st Century”, STAC 2003.
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Recent Growth Areas in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Areas of significant residential and impervious growth (1990 – 2000)
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Nutrient and Sediment
Loads/ Uptake
Air Emissionsand
Deposition
WastewaterDischarge
(Pipe and Septic)
ImperviousSurfaces and
Runoff
Commercial/ Industrial
High DensityResidential
Low DensityResidential
Development Intensity Continuum
Health of the Bay
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Chesapeake Bay Program’s Watershed Model
Hydrologic Simulation Program- Fortran Model (HSPF)
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Limitations of the growth modeling capabilities in the CBP Watershed Model (Phase 4.3)
• Relies on 1970’s/1990’s hybrid land cover;
• Assumes uniform linear relationship between population growth and urban extent.
• Does not consider alternative land development scenarios;
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Phase 4.394 segments
16 water qualitycalibration
stations
Phase 5.0697 segments
70 water qualitycalibration
stations
Use of finer scale and more current data
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Use of finer scale and more current data
2000 Impervious Surface 2000 Land use/ Land cover
Number of workers Number of households
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A better method for forecasting growth:
A decision support system that spatially allocates projections of future housing and employment and enables the exploration of alternative future development scenarios
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HistoricalPopulation and Housing
Data(U.S. Census Bureau)
HistoricalEmployment
Data(Bureau of Labor Stats.)
Road & Impervious Data(GDT & Landsat)
Phase 5Watershed Modeling
Segments
1990 and 2000 Estimates ofResidential and Commercial
Development by
Watershed Segment
CBP Smart Growth Decision Support System
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Baseline scenarioHistoric
urban growthestimates
Estimates of RegionalOffice Space
Requirements
RegionalEmployment
Forecasts
Estimates of County HousingRequirements
Smart Growth Policy Options1. Density constraints2. Environmental constraints
• Slope• Critical habitats• Prime farmland• Water supply protection areas
3. Infrastructure constraints• Sewer/water service areas• Road access
Baseline scenarioPolicy scenario APolicy scenario BPolicy scenario C
etc.
Spatial allocationof forecasted growth
to available land
Phase 5Watershed Modeling
Segments
2000 Land CoverData
(Landsat ETM)
County PopulationForecasts
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CBP Smart Growth Decision Support System
Baseline scenarioPolicy scenario APolicy scenario BPolicy scenario C
etc.
EPA Needs-basedSewer Model
UpgradeCapital Cost
Scenarios
CBP Partner&
Tributary TeamEvaluation
AcceptableScenario
Smart Growth Policy Options1. Density constraints2. Environmental constraints
• Slope• Critical habitats• Prime farmland• Water supply protection areas
3. Infrastructure constraints• Sewer/water service areas• Road access
UnacceptableScenario
Chesapeake BayWatershed Model
(HSPF)
WaterQuality
Scenarios
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Promotion of multi-jurisdictional planning;
Promotion of sound land use practices through tributary strategy implementation.
Simulation of alternative future development scenarios;
Benefits to the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership
Evaluation of the water quality, infrastructure, and land conversion effects of smart growth policies;
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Potential future improvementsof the
CBP Smart Growth Decision Support System:
• Couple with the Scenario Builder application to support the Tributary Strategies and model re-evaluation.
• Couple with more spatially explicit growth models (SLEUTH) and with environmental impact models for mobile air emissions (CALPUFF), and biodiversity conservation (NatureServe’s VISTA)
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Thank you.