Integrating Asian Wisdom:Low Carbon Asia Research Network

LoCARNet for Green Growth

September 2012  Bangkok

Dr. Shuzo NishiokaSecretary General, LoCARNet 

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)0

Growing importance of actions towards low‐carbon development in Asia

1990

2008

2050

Source: Presentation by Dr. Mikiko Kainuma (Nov. 2011)  1

National governments

East Asia Knowledge Platform for Low Carbon Growth

Science-based

policy-making support joint research, capacity building

LoCARNet as Think Tank

for East Asia Knowledge Platform for Low-Carbon Growth

Cities, local communities

Private enterprises

Reliable data, GHG inventoriestechnology roadmap,

Integrated Assessment Modeleconomic evaluation tools

Low Carbon Asia Research Network

(LoCARNet)

Industrialised countries

Low-carbon infrastructure, transportation/3Rs system

Green investmentGreen industry/business

Int’l NGOsICLEI, IGES

SEI

Tech transfer

National/International

financing organizations

GEFWorld Bank

ADB

JICAAusAidKOICACDKNLEDSGIZ

etc

International research

communities

APNSATREPS(JST/JICA)LCS‐RNetNIESIGES

GGGICLEAN

UNESCAPEU

ICSUIPCC

UNFCCCetc.

Financing agencies

Knowledge sharing in Asia

Framework of  “Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)”

LoCARNet is a multi‐layered, flexible, open network for researchers    to contribute to low carbon policy‐making.

LoCARNet - Activities and Uniqueness目的と特色

Network of leading researchers/research organizations’ whoare deeply involved in low-carbon growth policy processes in this region.

Science‐Science‐Policy Dialogue: LoCARNet promotes research for policies towards low-carbon growth by enabling a sufficient amount of dialogue among/between scientists and policy-makers.

Ownership of knowledge by countries: LoCARNet encourages collaboration amongst researchers in-country whose research capacity and scientific knowledge are firmly grounded in their home countries.

South‐South‐North Collaboration: LoCARNet aims to increase in research capacity in the AP region through knowledge sharing and information exchange, in the scheme of not only north-south cooperation, but also south-south regional cooperation.

4

Structuring Science‐based National Low Carbon/Green Growth Strategies

GHG Inventory

Scientific measurement and evaluation

List of Technologies:energy, performance, cost

National Development plan

Policy options

Nationally AppropriateAction Plan

National LC/GG Development plan

Socio-Economic Evaluation

Technological road map

National Communicationto UNFCCC

Reduction Target setting

Integrated Assessment

Models

Implementation

Planning

International contribution

Scientific data acquisition

Forest, soil

land useTransportationIndustry

Energy System Sectoralmodels

City/Local planning

Policy stage Macro-frame Scientific Process Methodologies

Citizen mobilization

Residence and Office

Institutionalization

IPCC & region-specificmethodologies

Synthesizing

Policy formulation

Policy evaluation

Implementation on the ground

Monitoring

Target setting

Green investment/finance, burden‐sharing

Social infrastructure 

design (hard/soft)

Growth scenarios,technology roadmaps

Low carbon model cities

Mobilisation of the private sector

Minimise transition friction

Consumption/ lifestyle/behaviour change

Building consensus

Participatory approach

Economic Models

Policy and Measures

Integrated Assessment Model

GHG Inventory, Energy Balance Table

Target setting

Target 

Formulation of low‐carbon growth policies‐ Process, data, knowledge, tools and methods

Policy feedback

6

International Symposium on Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia Research and Policy DialogueAt Johor Bahru, Malaysia on July 9th(Mon), 2012Low Carbon ASIA – Policy-makers’ Dialogue

What research area/ topics should be strengthened using synergy of regional cooperation?

Ex.• Inventory data of region specific items• Energy demand side data• Development of forestry and land‐use simulation model • Utilization of integrated assessment models for nationally/ regionally harmonized LC 

policy

• Economic evaluation  methodology for Low carbon growth• Low carbon city management• Comparative study of effectiveness of LC policy and measures among region• Reform of power system 

• Transportation  system: good practices• Waste management in relation to LC policy• Mobilizing local society • Asian value and behavior• …….

Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) 1st Annual Meeting

“How to mobilise the wisdom towards low-carbon development in Asia”

Date: 16 and 17 October 2012Venue: Novotel Bangkok on Siam Square (tbc), Bangkok, Thailand Organisers:- Co-organisers (tbc):

APN: Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change ResearchADB: Asian Development BankJGSEE: Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, ThailandLoCARNet/IGES: Low Carbon Asia Research Network / Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

- Supporters (tbc):MOEJ :Ministry of the Environment, Japan TGO: Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization

Programme (tentative): 6 keynote sessions, 6 group sessions, 3 dialogues with researchers and policy-makers, etc.

Objectives of the annual meeting:

Towards sound science-based low-carbon policy in the region, the annual meeting aims:

– to exchange up-to-date scientific knowledge on common LC Growth research topics in this region (through dialogues among researchers/research institutes) Use of Integrated Assessment Model, Land Use and Forestry,

GHG Inventory, Low Carbon City, Local Level Practices/Local Decisions/Local Initiatives, Institutionalisation of Low-Carbon Green Growth, etc…

– to exchange views on research needs between policy-makers and the research community (through dialogues between policy-makers and researchers/research institutes)

– to explore potential collaboration areas for joint research in the region (S-S cooperation)

– to develop plans for LoCARNet future activities– to pick-up/extract recommendations from research

communities in this region, addressed to world leaders on climate change and low-carbon development

Save our common climate

Integrating Asian wisdom: LoCARNet for Green GrowthThank you for your kind attention!

Stable climateLow carbon society

Society with technologies having low dependence on energy 

Green economyGreen InvestmentGreen Finance

Backcasting forpolicy formation

Long‐term

Priority of QoL

Sustainable society

Prioritise policy targetsStable climate ＞ Energy ＞ Economy

Survival

Safety

Convenience

Amenity

Nature

Energy

Economy

11Short‐term

Progress of 

“Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)” as a central core for providing knowledge

Pre-history:

• 2009-2011 Asia:

IGES/NIES’ workshops to promote dialogues between policy-makers and researchers in Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia⇒ recognized growing importance of research society for low-carbon growth in Asia

• 19 October 2011 Phnom Penh:

Japan proposed “Low Carbon Asia Research Network at ASEAN+3 EMM

• April 2012 Tokyo:

Minister of Environment of Japan declared launching of LoCARNet,as an element of ‘East Asia Knowledge Sharing Platform for Low Carbon Growth’ at the “East Asia Low Carbon Growth Partnership Dialogue”,

• Organization in process now

12

Progress of 

“Low Carbon Asia Research Network ” planed activities in 2012

• 2012 May: APN Fund (0.3mil.US$/y) for LoCARNet established (Low Carbon Initiative in Asia‐Pacific Network for Global Change Research for Regional‐based research/ Capacity Development/Networking activities  

• 2012 July 9: Policy‐makers’ panel at Johor Bahru Symposium on LoCARNet future activities from policy‐makers’ point of view 

• 2012 July 23 (at ISAP, IGES): LoCARNet Kick‐off Meeting to discuss on future activities, research needs, knowledge exchange/capacity building system and organization by leading researchers in the region

• 2012 July 24 (at ISAP, IGES): Report its progress to  “East Asia Knowledge Platform for Low Carbon Growth ‐ Knowledge in Action for Policy and Investment” session

• 2012 September 18 Oxford: Session on “Regional co‐operation: Asian case study” at LCS‐RNet 4th Annual Meeting

• 2012  16‐17 October at Bangkok : LoCARNet First annual meeting ⇒Report/recommendation to UNFCCC COP18, ASEAN＋３、、、

• 2013 ⇒ LoCARNet will be expected to become an autonomous researchers’ network based on south‐south cooperation in the region.

to 2007

Industry

Residential

Commercial

Transport

Non-energy

to 1990

Industry

Residential

Commercial

Transport

Non-energy

Historical and projected GHG emissions Reduction rate in 2020GHG emissions trends

Left: total reductionRight: upper: reduction within the sector

lower: reduction due to energy sector

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Non-energy

TransportEm

issi

on in

199

0 =

1

16Mitigation Potential（ktCO2）

Mar

gina

l aba

tem

ent c

osts

(Y

en/k

tCO

2)

：Industry

：Commercial

：Agriculture

：Wastes

：F-Gas

：Residential

：Transportation

Note: MCII, Payback time is 3 years except 10 years in Insulation and PV. Mitigation potential is compared to the emissions in Frozen Case

AIM/Enduse[Japan]

Reduction potential and cost of TechnologiesMarginal Abatement Cost to Reduce GHG emissions in 2020

[Trans] From normal-size vehicles to small-size and light vehicles

[Trans] freight car (change of ownership from private to commercial)

[Trans] Energy efficiency improvement of vehicles

[Trans] Energy efficiency improvement of ships, rails and air

[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners

[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of Electric appliances

[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of lights

[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners

[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of motors

[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of lights

[Industry] Measures in the pulp and paper sector

[Industry] Energy efficiency improvement of motor

[Transport] Bionergy

[F-gases]Measures in F-gases

[Commercial] Latent heat recovery in hot water supply

[Transport] Hybrid vehicles

[Industry] High efficient furnace

[Wastes] Measures in the waste sector

[Industry] Energy efficient improvement of private power generation

[Industry] Measures in the steel sector

[Residential] PV

[Industry] conversion to natural gas

[Industry] PV

[Residential] Latent heatrecovery in hot water supply

[Trans] Conversion to electric vehicles

[Residential] Heat Pump type hot water supply

[Commercial] Heat Pump type hot water supply

[Residential] Insulation (house & bath)

[Agriculture] Process improvement of domestic animal excrement, reduction of manure

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

-10,000

-20,000

-30,000

-40,000

0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000 300,000

[Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and saving in use

[Industry] Measures in the Petrochemical industry

[Transport] Measures to reduce service demands

17

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

‐10,000

‐20,000

‐30,000

‐40,000

0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,0000 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000

Countermeasures to implement technologies Feasible with Four sets of countermeasures to achieve the target of 2020

Sets of Measures A

Negative abatement

costs. Economically

feasilbe

Sets of Measures B

Marginal abatement costs are

under certain level

Sets of Measures CHigh cost measures. Requires

appropriate policy

measures

1) Enhancement of Top RunnerTop energy efficiency in all sectors-Enhancement of regulation- Introduction o f bench mark regulation

2) Visualization of countermeasure activities

Information to encourage smart and rational choices - Labeling of GHG emissions- Mechanism to make the choices economically feasible (e.g. combination with carbon offset).- Real time display of electric consumption

3) Carbin pricingMechanism that reduction effort is economically rewarding-Introduction of emission trading-Green tax, Environmental tax (international competitivenss should be consideres)

4) Mechanism to enhance technology development and deploymentStrategic support for-Enhanced RPS, Feed-in Tariff-Green New Deal- Enhanced standard of energy saving building

Mar

gina

l Aba

tem

ent C

osts

(Ye

n/kt

CO2）

GHG reduction（ktCO2eq）

AIM/Enduse[Japan]

Example: Passenger transport sector can achieve 80% reduction in energy demand via

suitable land use & improved energy efficiency

Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.) Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities'): reduced travel distance due to proximity

of destination Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids, lightweight

designs etc.)

Energy efficiency improvement

Land use・Reduction intransport volume

Decline intransport volume

Grid electricity

Ener

gy D

eman

d (M

toe)

2000(Actual figure) 2050(scenario A) 2050(scenario B)

Change in passenger transport volume

Change in passenger transport methods

Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities')

Improved energy efficiency

Hydrogen

Solar energy generation

Biomass

Natural gas

Petroleum oil

Energy demand in 2000

Demographic 2000 Demographic 2050

A MaleB Male

A Female

B Female

-4,000 0 4,0000-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

×1,000 people-4,000 0 4,000

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Japan as the global front runner of aging societies

Scenario A: Vital SocietyB: Slow Society

1200 million ⇒ ＜1000 million

19

Land-use planning and transportation strategy depend on local specification

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000人口累積 [万人]

地方

都市

大都市圏都市部

地方

郊外

・郡

部

大都

市圏

郊外

1人あたりCO2 [t/年]

2000年

2050年

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

人口累積 [万人]

地方

都市

大都市圏都市部 地方

郊外

・郡部

大都

市圏

郊外

1人あたりCO2 [t/年]

2000年

2050年

Cargo Freight

Passenger

Mega cities

Rural

Local cities

population

Per Capita TransportationCO2 Emission

Asian advantage: Still able to design efficient infrastructure to avoid lock-in

Modal share of motorised private mode

50,000 GDP/capita (USD)

Source: IEA (2008)

* Tokyo* Munich

* Paris

* Hong Kong

* NY

* San Francisco

* Rome* Copenhagen

* Los Angeles

* Kuala Lumpur

* Ho Chi Minh City

* Manila

* Beijing

21

Source: Local Development WG team

Before

and

After

2050 vision of compact city and rural life for aged society

22

▶ Mechanism to reward people and companies cooperating in reducing emissions

▶ Making emissions volumes knownSMEs and individuals

Existing low-carbon technologies

Domestic marketGlobal market

Revolutionary low-carbon technologies

2010 2020 2050

Large companies

Reduction of greenhouse emissions

Operation of mechanisms utilizing effective of making known

1990

Appropriate combination of restrictions and support

Thoroughly making known; appearance of effects of existing technologies; period of expansion of the domestic market; period of entrance into the global market

Infrastructure development; appearance of effects of revolutionary technologies; period of expansion into the global market

25% reduction 80% reduction

▶ Spread of low-carbon tech.

▶ Expansion of new industries and markets

Thoroughly making known for all main constituents

Fixed-price FIT

Cap and trade: domestic emissions trading

Carbon Tax

▶ Policy to promote the mass spread of existing technologies

Policies

Effects

▶ Low-carbon infrastructure development/▶ Promotion of research and development▶ Development of human resources and environmental education▶ Vitalization of environmental finance

Resources

Promotion of voluntary efforts

Restrictions by top runners

23

Overall roadmap: policies and effects

24

• As for the investment amount for global warming, half of the overall investment amount will be collected by 2020 and an amount equal to the investment amount will be collected by 2030 based on energy expenses that can be saved through technologies introduced.

<Low-carbon investment amount and energy reduction expense>

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Energy saving investment through

2020

Volume of reduction from energy saving technologies

Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment= approx. 50 trillion yen(25% reduction)

In the case of device with 10 year lifespan

Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment= approx. 49 trillion yen(25% reduction)

-36 -43 -50

-35 -42-49

58 78 96

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

25% reduction

Additional investment(’11 – ’20 total)

Energy reduction expense(’11 – ’20 total)Energy reduction expense(’21 – ’30 total)

Relationship between low-carbon investment and energy reduction expense

20% reduction

15% reduction

Cos

t (T

rillio

n Y

en)

0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.6

0.8 1.0

0.5 0.8

1.1

0.6

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.5

0.6

0.7

0.9

0.2

0.4

0.5

5.8

7.8

9.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

▲15% ▲20% ▲25%

その他

電力系統

その他新エネ発電

太陽光発電

自動車

業務用建築物・機器

家電製品

家庭用給湯器

住宅

産業

Japan needs to invest on average 6 to 10 trillion yen per annum in additional funds to achieve a ▲15% to ▲25% by 2020. If this spending is not spread across all sectors of society, Japan will face difficulty in implementing the necessary countermeasures to achieve this target. Yet, this also means Japan will need to create new markets on par with this spending.

[Additional Investments Required to Achieve CO2 Reduction Target]

Add

ition

al In

vest

men

t Am

ount

(T

rillio

n Y

en /

Yea

r)

・Japan needs to develop policies that reward consumers who chose and companies that manufacture low-carbon products.・Japan needs to proactively move forward with investments that contribute to green innovation.

Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee

Need to spend between 6 and 10 trillion yen per annum across all sectors of society

Create Green Markets

Grow Green Markets

15% Reduction

Other

Electric Power SystemsOther New Energy GenerationPV

AutomobilesCommercial Buildings / Equipment

Home ElectronicsResidential Water HeatersHousing

Industrial

20% Reduction

25% Reduction

Huge green business opportunity accompanied by transition to low carbon society

1-2% of GDP

25

Correspondence between the Issues and models

Design target year’s societies by ExSSOne/multi- regional multi-

sectoral analysis Check and analyze quantitative

consistency of future societies

Quantitative design of basic mechanisms by

element models

•Energy enduse models (AIM/enduse)

• Energy supply model (ESM)

• Traffic demand model (TDM)

• Econometric type macro-economy model (EME)

• Population and household model (PHM)

• House and building dynamics model (BDM)

• Material stock dynamics model (MSFM)

• Household production and lifestyle model (HPLM)

• AFOLU model (AFOLU)

Design target year’s social/economic/ energy

vision quantitatively

Major outputs of models are Policy portfolio, GHG emissions inventory, Energy balance table, IO table, Labor/population balance table, Transport demand and supply table, Household account, Macro economic account, Price, etc.

Design social, physical LCD’s details based on

more physically realistic mechanisms

RoadmapEconomic analysis Design of target society

and Reduction potential

Backcasting analysis by BCM/BCT

Design roadmaps towards future

designed societies

LCD visions

and

LCDPolicies

• Economic instruments

• Regulation• Education• Public

investments• etc.

Economic analysis by AIM/CGE

One/multi- regional multi-sectoral CGE analysis

Check and analyze quantitative economical consistency of future

societies

Not all of them are applied. Depending on the situation, some are intensively applied.

26Designing and establishing Cambodian Low Carbon Development Plan

Designing and establishing Cambodian Low Carbon Development Plan 27

Progress up to now Collaborating Research Institutes

China Extending ERI's national study (Low Carbondevelopment, China) with AIM models. Preparingprovincial energy, industrial, and economicdatabase in order to integrate national level andprovincial level scenarios

Energy Research Institute(ERI), NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission

India Constructing Indian national scenarios with"Conventional Mitigation" and "Sustainabledevelopment" which corresponding to global 2 Cscenarios

Indian Institute of Management,Ahmedabad

Thailand Thailand national study using coupled CGE andenduse model and apply ing Thailand NAMA

Thammasat University

Indonesia Indonesia national study using coupledEnergy/enduse model and AFOLU model

Institut Teknologi BandungBogor Agriculture University

Vietnam Preliminary analysis of Vietnam energy related andAFOLU related GHG emission reduction wasfinished

Institute of Strategy and Policy onNatural Resources and Environment(ISPONRE), Institute of Meteorology,Hydrology and Environment, Ministry ofNatural Resources and Environment

Bangladesh Preliminary analysis of Bangladesh LCS withenergy ExSS. Finished

Department of Environment, Bangladesh

Malaysia Extending the reduction plan of the 2nd NationalCommunication with ExSS and AFOLU models

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

National Studies

National level collaborative studies now going on

28

Brochures introducing national and regional specific LCD studiesCommunication and feedbacks of LCD study to real world

2010/102009/11

on goingon going2011/10

2009/10

2011/03

2008/12

2010/10

2011/09

2007/05 2009/10

2009/11

2009/10

2011/05

Asian Modeling Meeting at Tsukuba on 17-18 September 2009

14th AIM International Workshop on 14-15 February 2009

AIM Training Workshop on 2-14 August 2010

Asian Low Carbon Development Scenario Making and Capacity

Building Activity Since 1991

17th AIM International Workshop,17-19, February 2012

16th AIM International Workshop on 19-21 February 2011

15th AIM International Workshop on 20-22 February 2010

AIM Training Workshop on 27-31 October 2008

AIM Training Workshop on 22-26 October 2007AIM Training Workshop on 16-20 October 2006

1st AIM International Workshop on 1-2 February,1996

Save our common climate

Integrating Asian wisdomThank you for your kind attention!