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Transcript of Integrated Risk Management Framework for Carbon Capture...
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Patricia Larkin PhD Candidate, Population Health
Integrated Risk Management Framework for Carbon Capture and Storage
in the Canadian Context
5th IEAGHG Social Research Network Meeting
July 6, 2014
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Project Team
University of Ottawa University of Waterloo University of Calgary
PI’s: Daniel Krewski
William Leiss
Mamadou Fall
PI’s: Robert Gracie
Maurice Dusseault
PI: Joseph Arvai
Team Team Team
Patricia Larkin, PhD Chris Ladubec, PhD Victoria Campbell, RA
Zhenze Li, PDF Mirhamed Sarkarfashi, PhD Douglas Bessette, PhD
Farshad Malekzadeh, PhD
Project Manager: UOttawa, Shalu Darshan, PhD
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Outline
• Timeliness and usefulness
• Features of a generic Risk Management Framework
• CCS risk assessment and risk management frameworks worldwide and attempts at integration
• Integrated Risk Management Framework for CCS in the Canadian context
– Expert elicitation
– Risk-based decision making
• Conclusion and questions
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CCS Implementation N
um
ber
of
pro
ject
s
Year
MtC
O2 y
r-1
Scott et al. (2012)
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Generic Risk Management Framework
5
Stak
eho
lder C
om
mu
nicatio
n
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CCS RA/RM Frameworks Worldwide
Many frameworks have been created o More than a dozen regulatory and non-regulatory organizations have
sourced documents and online resources
o The majority of regulatory documents have come out of international/regional (EU) entities
Elaboration varies o May simply mention a requirement, or may spell out specific inclusions
or approach
o Focus is often chain specific - Capture, Transport, Injection, Storage
Most comprehensive documents o Regulatory - UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – Clean
Development Mechanism, Modalities and Procedures for CCS (2011)
o Advisory - World Resources Institute (2008), DNV GL, US NETL (multiple)
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Elaborated Frameworks
• Primary focus on injection and storage
• Many documents address storage site selection and characterization o 4-step RA (Hazard Characterization, Exposure Assessment, Effects
Assessment, Risk Characterization)
• Few frameworks link with an assessment of emissions, waste, or water use
• Uncertainty, stakeholder communication and consultation, and transparency are discussed sparsely in the regulatory context and frequently in non-regulatory documents
• Some non-government guidance includes a discussion on methodologies for risk ranking; government documents do not
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Attempts at Integration
• Bowden and Rigg (2004)
o Features Events Processes (FEP); use of expert panel; community interface
• FutureGen (2007)
o 1000s of pages with web access
• Hnottavange-Telleen et al. (2011)
o Stressed that risks perceived by all stakeholders are equally important (public and expert)
• Koorneef et al. (2011, 2012)
o RA within broader Environmental Impact Assessment; transparent process
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Attempts at Integration (con’t)
• Shell Quest (2012)
o Documentation and regulatory decision
• Bowden et al. (2013a, 2013b)
o Socially acceptable risk concept
• Gerstenberger et al. (2013)
o Methods and tools available for integrated risk assessment, including expert elicitation, in order to respond to uncertainties and limited data; communication
• Choptiany and Pelot (2014)
o Multicriteria Decision Analysis; interactive engagement
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Integrated Risk Management Framework
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Adapted from Leiss et al. (2010)
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Risk Assessment Phase
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Risk Management Phase
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Structured Expert Elicitation
• To improve understanding of relative risk and quantification of collective uncertainty judgments
(Aspinall, 2010; Cooke & Goossens, 2008)
• International expert panel convened regarding risks and attendant uncertainties
– Injection and storage
– Risk management of high impact low probability events
• Full analysis yet to be completed
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Relative Risk
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What should be the storage project monitoring period (years)?
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• Experts thought storage monitoring period should extend between a decade through a millennium
• Best expert judgement is approximately a century
What should be the storage project monitoring period (years)?
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Effectiveness of RM Options for high impact low probability events
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Risk-based Decision Making and Risk Management
18 Krewski et al. (2014)
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Determining Acceptable Risk Management Options
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Conclusion
_____________
Questions
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References • Aspinall, W. (2010). A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature, 463, 294-295.
• Bowden, A. R., Pershke, D. F., & Chalaturnyk, R. (2013). Biosphere risk assessment for CO2 storage projects. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 16, S291-S308. doi: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.02.015
• Bowden, A. R., Pershke, D. F., & Chalaturnyk, R. (2013). Geosphere risk assessment conducted for the IEAGHG Weyburn-Midale CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 16, S276-S290. doi: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.02.014
• Bowden, A. R. and Rigg, A. (2004). ‘Assessing Risk in CO2 Storage Projects’, APPEA Journal, Vol. 44, pp. 677-702.
• Canadian Standards Association. (2012) CSA Z741:2012 Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide. Toronto, CSA. http://shop.csa.ca/en/canada/design-for-the-environment/z741-12/invt/27034612012
• Choptiany, J. M. H. and Pelot, R (2014). ‘A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Model and Risk Assessment Framework for Carbon Capture and Storage’, Risk Analysis, Vol. 34, pp. 1720-1737.
• Cooke, R. M., & Goossens, L. L. H. J. (2008). TU Delft expert judgment database. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, 93, 657-674. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.005
• DNV GL – eg https://www.dnvgl.com/oilgas/innovation-development/joint-industry-projects/co2riskman.html
• FutureGen (2007) - http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/EIS-0394-DEIS-RiskAssessmentReport-2007.pdf
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References con’t • Gerstenberger, M. C., Christophersen, A., Buxton, R., Allinson, G., Hou, W., Leamon, G., &
Nicol, A. (2013). Integrated Risk Assessment for CCS. Energy Procedia, 37(0), 2775-2782. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2013.06.162
• Hnottavange-Telleen, K., Chabora, E., Finley, R.J., Greenberg, S.E. and Marsteller, S. (2011) ‘Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA’, Energy Procedia Vol. 4, pp.4044-4051. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2011.02.346
• Koornneef, J., Ramírez, A., Turkenburg, W., & Faaij, A. (2011). The environmental impact and risk assessment of CO2 capture, transport and storage-an evaluation of the knowledge base using the DPSIR framework. Energy Procedia, 4, 2293-2300. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2011.02.119
• Koornneef, J., Ramirez, A., Turkenburg, W., & Faaij, A. (2012). The environmental impact and risk assessment of CO2 capture, transport and storage - An evaluation of the knowledge base. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 38, 62-86. doi: 10.1016/j.pecs.2011.05.002
• Krewski, D., Westphal, M., Andersen, M. E., Paoli, G. M., Chiu, W. A., Al-Zoughool, M., . . . Cote, I. (2014). A framework for the next generation of risk science. Environ Health Perspect, 122(8), 796-805. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1307260
• Leiss, W., Tyshenko, M. G., Krewski, D., Cashman, N., Lemyre, L., & Al-Zoughool, M. (2010). Managing the risks of bovine spongiform encephalopathy: a Canadian perspective. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 14(5), 381-436.
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References con’t
• Scott, V., Gilfillan, S., Markusson, N., Chalmers, H., & Haszeldine, R. S. (2012). Last chance for carbon capture and storage. Nature Climate Change, 3(2), 105-111. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1695
• Shell Quest (2012) - http://www.shell.ca/en/aboutshell/our-business-tpkg/upstream/oil-sands/quest/about-quest.html
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2011). Modalities and procedures for carbon dioxide capture and storage in geological formations as clean development mechanism project activities. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/durban_nov_2011/decisions/application/pdf/cmp7_carbon_storage_.pdf.
• US National Energy Technology Laboratory - http://www.netl.doe.gov/research/coal/carbon-storage/strategic-program-support/best-practices
• World Resources Institute. (2008). CCS Guidelines for Carbon Dioxide Capture, Transport, and Storage. Washington: WRI Retrieved from http://pdf.wri.org/ccs_guidelines.pdf.
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Appendix
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IRMF for CCS in Canadian Context
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What in your opinion is the likelihood of minor leakage in injection?
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What in your opinion is the likelihood of minor leakage in injection?
• Some experts thought likelihood of minor leakage in injection is 100%
• Experts thought the range is between approximately
1 in 1.5 through 1 in 2300
• Best expert judgement is approximately 1 in 130
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What in your opinion is the likelihood of minor leakage in storage in first 50 years?
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What in your opinion is the likelihood of minor leakage in storage during the first 50 yrs?
• Experts thought likelihood of minor leakage in first 50 years is between
1 in 7 through 1 in 98,000
• Best expert judgement is 1 in 8000
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In a typical large scale integrated saline aquifer storage project, what fraction of injected CO2 can be expected to be retained over a period of 1,000 years? (0-100%)
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In a typical large scale integrated saline aquifer storage project, what fraction of injected CO2 can be expected to be retained over a period of 1,000 years? (0-100%)
• Experts thought between 87.5-100% of injected CO2 would be expected to be retained in a saline aquifer storage site through 1000 years
• Best expert judgement is approximately 99.8%