Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest
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Transcript of Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest
Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Integrated Ecological Economic Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon
RainforestRainforest
By By Rosimeiry PortelaRosimeiry Portela
AtAtConservation InternationalConservation International
Washington, DCWashington, DCJuly, 2005July, 2005
IntroductionIntroduction
The Amazon tropical rain forest: Largest tract of tropical forest on Earth with half of the species of the world.
Vegetation: Regional pattern of precipitation and radiation and and regulation of GHGs.
Plant animal interactions and nutrient cycling.
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BSRS IBasi c Science and Remote Sensing Initiative
TOWNS
ForestDeforestationSecondary GrowthWaterCloud CoverCloud ShadowCerradoHighway
State/Country BoundariesTransamazonica Highway
F ORE ST COVER IN TH E BRAZ IL IAN AMAZON, 1992
Legal Amazon, Brazil
““To try to understand the structure and function To try to understand the structure and function of …(the Amazon) is comparable to composing a of …(the Amazon) is comparable to composing a
mosaic picture.mosaic picture.
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Sioli, H. 1984
RUMBA: Integrating functions of the RUMBA: Integrating functions of the ecosystem to human economy and social ecosystem to human economy and social
interactions…interactions…
…with the main focus on the contribution of the ecosystem goods and functions to human economy and welfare.
Atmosphere
Lithosphere
Hydrosphere
Biosphere
Original land cover andderived land uses
Human-madeCapital(Built Capital,Human CapitalSocial Capital)
EcosystemServices
HumanImpacts
Anthroposphere
Solar Energy
Natural Capital
Rest of the
World
RUMBA: ScenariosRUMBA: Scenarios
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Baseline: Historical trends;
Scenario 1: Increased investment in BC with region’s own financial resources;
Scenario 2: Increased investment in BC with region’s and external financial resources;
Scenario 3: Increased investment in NC with region’s own financial resources;
Scenario 4: Increased investment in NC with region’s and external financial resources.
Research Results: Annual Deforestation Research Results: Annual Deforestation RatesRates
Baseline and Alternative ScenariosBaseline and Alternative Scenarios
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BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4 DATA
Research Results: Research Results: Annual Deforestation RatesAnnual Deforestation Rates
Year 2050Year 2050 Scenario 1: 27 thousand kmScenario 1: 27 thousand km22 yr yr-1-1
Scenario 2: 29 thousand kmScenario 2: 29 thousand km22yryr-1-1
Scenario 3: 22 thousand kmScenario 3: 22 thousand km22yryr-1-1
Scenario 4: 25 thousand kmScenario 4: 25 thousand km22yryr-1-1
Forest is cleared at Forest is cleared at a faster rate under a faster rate under scenarios of scenarios of increased increased development.development.2050: Baseline: 26 2050: Baseline: 26 thousand kmthousand km2 2 yryr-1-1-3500
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Research Results: Research Results: Annual Deforestation RatesAnnual Deforestation Rates
Deforested areas Deforested areas under scenarios of under scenarios of increased increased development are development are higher than those higher than those of conservation and of conservation and BaselineBaseline
Deforestation in Scenario in Relation Baseline Deforestation in Scenario in Relation Baseline (2100)(2100)
Scenario 1: -73 thousand kmScenario 1: -73 thousand km22
Scenario 2: -171 thousand kmScenario 2: -171 thousand km22
Scenario 3: +205 thousand kmScenario 3: +205 thousand km22
Scenario 4: +45 thousand kmScenario 4: +45 thousand km22
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Deforested Area, All Scenarios Year 2100
BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4
Research Results: Research Results: Land Cover/Land Use CompositionLand Cover/Land Use Composition
Baseline ScenarioBaseline ScenarioStrong trend in land Strong trend in land
conversion from forest conversion from forest to other land uses;to other land uses;
1975: 96% forest cover1975: 96% forest cover 2100: 26% forest cover2100: 26% forest cover
Land UseLand Use Pasture: 40%Pasture: 40% Fallow: 24%Fallow: 24% Agriculture: 10%Agriculture: 10%
LAND COVER/LAND USE COMPOSITION/BASELINE SCENARIO YEAR 1975
Forest96%
Agriculture1%
Pasture2%
Fallow1%
Urban0%
Forest Agriculture Pasture Fallow Urban
LAND COVER/LAND USE COMPOSITION/BASELINE SCENARIO YEAR 2100
Forest26%
Agriculture10%
Pasture40%
Fallow24%
Urban0%
Forest Agriculture Pasture Fallow Urban
Results: Climate Variables/Baseline Results: Climate Variables/Baseline ScenarioScenario
Precipitation: 23% reductionPrecipitation: 23% reduction
Evapotranspiration: 26%reductionEvapotranspiration: 26%reduction
Temperature: 11% increaseTemperature: 11% increase
Forest Carbon Balance: Decreasing Forest Carbon Balance: Decreasing Uptake and Increasing EmissionsUptake and Increasing Emissions
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Results: Ecosystem Services VariablesResults: Ecosystem Services Variables
Removal of forest cover leads to increasing losses of ecosystem services: +70% by 2100
Higher losses observed in scenarios of increased development
Monetary valuation: Increasing prices per unit of service
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Results: Average Values of Ecosystem Results: Average Values of Ecosystem ServicesServices
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Table 6.1. Ave rage Values of Ecosystem Services Provision for Forest, Cropland andPasture for simulated period a
Unit Forest Cropland PastureGas Regulation Ton C km-2 yr-1 812.5 322.1 351.5
Climate Regulation oC Ton C -1 yr-1 km-2 34.8 13.8 15.0
DisturbanceRegulation
Ton C km-2 23,551.8 879.6 896.4
Plant NutrientUptake
Ton N km-2 yr-1 4,1 0.9 0.9
a. Average value for the simulated period 1975-2100.
Results: Monetary Valuation of Results: Monetary Valuation of Ecosystem Services Ecosystem Services
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BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4
Value of ecosystem services is estimated at about 5 times the GRP
Results: Capital Variables/Baseline ScenarioResults: Capital Variables/Baseline Scenario
POPULATION GROWTH (1E6 People)POPULATION GROWTH (1E6 People) 1975 2100
BASELINE 11.0 61.2SCENARIO 1 66.3SCENARIO 2 67.9SCENARIO 3 55.1SCENARIO 4 57.4
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Results: Capital Variables/All ScenariosResults: Capital Variables/All Scenarios
BUILT CAPITALBUILT CAPITAL1E6 US$ (2001)1E6 US$ (2001)
KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE1E6 US$ (2001)1E6 US$ (2001)
SOCIAL SOCIAL NETWORKNETWORKSNISNI
19751975 21002100 19751975 21002100 19751975 21002100
BASELINEBASELINE 555555 15,00915,009 47.847.8 810.8810.8 4.164.16 9.939.93
SCENARIO 1SCENARIO 1 23,19723,197 455.8455.8 9.869.86
SCENARIO 2SCENARIO 2 26,12426,124 313.1313.1 9.889.88
SCENARIO 3SCENARIO 3 7,3737,373 922.5922.5 9.949.94
SCENARIO 4SCENARIO 4 8,2588,258 1,238.81,238.8 9.959.95
Results: Capital Variables/Capita All ScenariosResults: Capital Variables/Capita All Scenarios
BC/CAPITABC/CAPITA1E3 US$ 1E3 US$ (2001)/Person(2001)/Person
KNOW/CAPITAKNOW/CAPITA1E3 US$ 1E3 US$ (2001)/Person(2001)/Person
SNI/CAPITASNI/CAPITASNI/PersonSNI/Person
19751975 21002100 19751975 21002100 19751975 21002100
BASELINEBASELINE 49.549.5 245.1245.1 4.34.3 13.213.2 0.370.37 0.160.16
SCENARIO 1SCENARIO 1 349.9349.9 6.96.9 0.150.15
SCENARIO 2SCENARIO 2 384.3384.3 4.64.6 0.150.15
SCENARIO 3SCENARIO 3 133.8133.8 16.716.7 0.180.18
SCENARIO 4SCENARIO 4 143.8143.8 21.621.6 0.170.17
Results: Economic Variables GRPResults: Economic Variables GRP
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Results: Welfare/All ScenariosResults: Welfare/All Scenarios
1975 2005 2050 2100
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Welfare Index Amazon, Brazil
BASELINE SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4
Results: Compensation for Avoided DeforestationResults: Compensation for Avoided Deforestation
Gains to the regional economy from forest conversion against losses associated with emissions
Scenario 3 (2005-2091) Forest spared from deforestation
: 210 thousand km2
Avoided Emissions: 3.0 Pg C
Foregone economic growth: US$ 1.7 Trillion
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Amazon Deforestation: Amazon Deforestation: 0.3 Pg C yr0.3 Pg C yr-1-1
Kyoto Target:Kyoto Target:0.5 Pg C yr0.5 Pg C yr-1-1
Results: Single Compensation for Results: Single Compensation for Avoided EmissionAvoided Emission
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GRP/BASELINEGRP/SCENARIO 3GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($10/tonne C)GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($100/tonne C)GRP COMPENSATED WITH SINGLE PAYMENT ($200/tonne C)
Results: Continuous Compensation for Results: Continuous Compensation for Avoided EmissionAvoided Emission
Discussion: Main FindingsDiscussion: Main Findings
Increasing land use change in the Brazilian Amazon incurs significant losses without this being adequately offset by increasing monetary income or welfare of people of the region.
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In the absence of significant incentives from global beneficiaries for any one ecosystem service or a combination of incentives addressing several ecosystem services, rational uses at the local level lead to sub optimal uses from the global perspective.
Discussion: AlternativesDiscussion: Alternatives
Effective Comand and Control Regulations
Efficient Market-Based Instruments: Carbon-offsetting trading Conservation Concession Timber Certification Fair Trade Secure Property Rights Tradeable Development Rights
International Grants Resources Global Forestry Agreements
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Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions Deforestation proceeds at high rates in
the Brazilian Amazon
The region suffers significant climate changes and losses of forest services as a result of forest removal
Increasing regional economic growth is not translated into increasing monetary income and welfare
Protection of forest will require a concerted long-term effort
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Model Limitations and CaveatsModel Limitations and Caveats
RUMBA: A unified metamodel
Use of average parameters; Assumptions to model processes that are
poorly understood; Linearly homogeneous production functions; Sensitivity of production limits of biosphere
to climate variables; Sensitivity of economic production to climate
variables and decreasing stocks of natural capital;
A economic distribution function.
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‘What we are doing to the forest of the world is but a
mirror reflection of what we are doing to ourselves
and one another’.
—Mahatma Ghandi
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