Integrated Dam Assessment Models Towards Sustainability of ...rivers.bee.oregonstate.edu › sites...
Transcript of Integrated Dam Assessment Models Towards Sustainability of ...rivers.bee.oregonstate.edu › sites...
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Integrated Dam Assessment Models –
Towards Sustainability of Dams
Desiree Tullos, Bryan Tilt, Phil Brown,
Darrin Magee, and Aaron Wolf
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Costs and benefits of dams
“Dams have made an important and significant contribution to human
development, and benefits derived from them have been
considerable…In too many cases an unacceptable and often unnecessary
price has been paid to secure those benefits, especially in social and
environmental terms, by people displaced, by communities downstream,
by taxpayers, and by the natural environment” (WCD 2000)
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Dams in, out, and reoperated
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Dams out:
Dam removal in America
• Expired permits - Federal Energy Resource Commission (FERC) relicensing hydropower projects at expiration of 30 to 50 year licenses
• Aging dams - 85% of dams in the US will reach the end of their working life by the year 2020 (FEMA 1999)
(Heinz Center 2002)
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Endangered salmon in theWillamette River, Oregon
Chinook populations
past (1900) ~300,000
present (2005) ~50,000
Steelhead populations
past (1900) ~200,000
present (2005) ~5,000
Dam removal in America
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Impacts of dam removal
• Fate of released sediment?
• Impacts of fisheries?
• Food web interactions?
• Institutional, Legal, Political, and Equity Impacts
• Quality of the Living Environment
Major et al. (2008)
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Dams reoperated:
“Environmental Flows”Reoperation of dams to provide the “acceptable
balance between a desired ecosystem condition
and other social and economic needs for water”
(IUCN 2003)
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Impacts of environmental flows
– Biophysics:
transport and resorts sediment,
reset habitats, filter exotics
– Socio-economics:
affect water supply, hydropower
generation, recreation
– Geopolitics:
require negotiations among
stakeholders over competing water uses
Image: USGS (2005)
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Sustainability of dams
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Barrier 1 – Independent evaluation of
impacts
• Environmental Impact Analysis
• Social Impact Analysis
• Cost-Benefit analysis
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Barrier 2 - Defining size of dam impact
Large dam definitions
• WCD: height>15m or 5m>height<15m & reservoir>3x106 cubic m
• Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety:Storage capacity > 50 acre-feet
• USACE: hazard based
• Stanley and Doyle 2002: hydraulic residence time
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Interdisciplinary Dam Assessment Model
(IDAM)Can we improve the sustainability of
dam design and operation?
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IDAM
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Biophysical impacts of dams
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Biophysical impacts of dams
Gregory et al. (2007)
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IDAM: Biophysical impacts of dams
• Biodiversity - Animals and vegetation
• Flooding
• Wildlife and habitat
• Cultural resources
• Recreation
• Spread of disease
• Water quality
• Air quality
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Bio
ph
ysic
al in
dic
ato
rs
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Geopolitical impacts of dams
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Events database example
DATE BASIN COUNTRIESBAR
SCALEEVENT SUMMARY
ISSUE
TYPE
12/5/73 La PlataArgentina--
Paraguay4
PRY and ARG agree to build 1B dam, hydroelectric
projectInfrastructure
1/1/76 Ganges
Bangladesh--
India--United
Nations
-2
Bangladesh lodges a formal protest against India with
the United Nations, which adopts a consensus
statement encouraging the parties to meet urgently, at
the level of minister, to arrive at a settlement.
Quantity
7/3/78 Amazon
Bolivia--Brazil--
Colombia--
Ecuador--
Guyana--Peru--
Suriname--
Venezuela
6 Treaty for Amazonian CooperationEconomic
Development
4/7/95 Jordan Israel--Jordan 4
Pipeline from Israel storage at Beit Zera to Abdullah
Canal (East Ghor Canal) begins delivering water
stipulated in Treaty (20 MCM summer, 10 MCM winter).
The 10 mcm replaces the 10 mcm of desalinated water
stipulated Annex II, Article 2d until desalinization plant
completed
Quantity
6/1/99 SenegalMali--
Mauritania-3
13 people died in communal clashes in 6/99 along
border between Maur. & Mali; conflict started when
herdsmen in Missira-Samoura village in w. Mali, refused
to allow Maur. horseman to use watering hole;
horseman returned w/ some of his clansmen, attacking
village on 6/20/99, causing 2 deaths; in retaliation that
followed, 11 more died.
Quantity
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Basins at risk: working hypothesis
“The likelihood of conflict rises as the rate of change within the basin exceeds the institutional capacity to absorb that change.”
What are indicators?
Basins experiencing sudden physical changes or
lower institutional capacity are more conducive to
disputes:
1. Uncoordinated development: a major project in the absence of a treaty or commission
2. “Internationalized basins”
3. General animosity
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Conflict within and among
multiple scales
The smaller the scale, the greater the likelihood of dispute.
Categories of conflict:
•Intrapersonal
•Interpersonal
•Inter-sectoral
•Inter-agency
•Inter-state
•International
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Geographic area-based hotspots
1. Sesan
2. Srepok
3. Sekong
4. UMNIP
5. Takeo Prey Veng/Dong Thap-An Giang
6. Tonle Sap
7. Siphandone – Strung Treng
8. Mekong Delta
9. Phnom Penh
10. Mun River
11. Songkhram River
12. Xe Bang Fai `
Preliminary Draft Identification of Environmental Hot Spots in the Lower
Mekong Basin
Note: locations shown are indicative only The map also shows locations of MRC’s Primary Water Quality Monitoring Network and reveals that at most of the identified hot spots monitoring is taking place.
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Geo
po
litic
al in
dic
ato
rs
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Socio-economic impacts of dams
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The social and economic
impacts of dams
• Lessons from the conceptual literature
– International Association for Impact Assessment
– World Commission on Dams
– International Rivers Network
• Lessons from empirical case studies
– Chixoy Dam, Guatemala (Johnston 2004)
– Mohale Dam, Lesotho (Thabane 2000)
– Xiaolangdi Dam, China (Shi et al. 2006)
– Three Gorges Dam, China (Jing 2000, Edmonds 1992)
– Uchangi Dam, India (Phadke 2005)
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Case study: Chixoy Dam, Guatemala
• Completed in 1980s with
international funding
• Largely Mayan population
• 3,400 people displaced
– Little financial compensation
– Reduced quantity and quality of
agricultural land
– Agricultural land often distant from
housing
– Lower incomes
– Health problems (poor nutrition,
high infant mortality)
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Identifying vulnerabilities
in displacement• Income/production
– Landlessness*
– Joblessness*
– Loss of community resources*
• Material well-being– Homelessness*
– Food insecurity*
• Social capacity– Community disarticulation*
• Health outcomes– Increased morbidity*
– Marginalization and depression*
• Sites of cultural significance
• Potential social unrest
• Loss of future productivity
*Cernea 1999
Image: Yvonne Braun 2007
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Socio-economic indicators
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IDAM Example
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Dam Site #1: 5th order river in Northwestern US• Main stem dam
• 21m high, 820m wide
• 120km2 reservoir
• 88km spawning habitat lost
• 18km dry river bed
• 23MW per year
• Irrigation water for 1,350 hectares of farmland
• 1,000 Native Americans displaced 200km
• Inundation of cultural and anthropological sites
Costs
Benefits
Area=101 Area=91
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Dam Site #2: 4th order tributary in Northwestern US• Tributary dam
• 47m high, 120m wide
• 23km2 reservoir.
• 21km spawning habitat lost
• 23MW per year, electricity transmitted further
• Irrigation water for 423 hectares of farmland
• 6km dry river bed downstream.
• No human displacement
• No inundation of cultural or anthropological artifacts
Costs
Benefits
Area=40 Area=50
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IDAM in action • Dam removal
• Environmental flows/dam reoperation
• International and generalizable?
* **
*
*
**
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•Apply model to ongoing AIRC efforts
•Detailed work on Lancang/Mekong
•General work on Nu/Salween
•Socioeconomic surveys in both basins