Integrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme events
description
Transcript of Integrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme events
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Integrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme eventsIntegrated climate indices for risk assessment of extreme events
Roxana BojariuRoxana Bojariu
Nationala Meteorological AdministrationNationala Meteorological Administration
[email protected]@meteoromania.ro
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OutlineOutline
Risk assessmentHeat waves in urban area Hail risk caseFollow up
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Risk assessmentRisk assessment
1. Natural hazard assessment and mapping
2. Impact assesment and mapping
3. Combining (1) and (2) to get the risk assessment and mapping
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Location of Arad and its districtsLocation of Arad and its districts
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Observed heat waves at Arad meteorological station stationObserved heat waves at Arad meteorological station station
Number of consecutive days with Tmax >=35 C and Tmax >= 37 C
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1973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
tmax>=37°C
tmax>=35°C
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Urban heat island case –natural hazard mappingUrban heat island case –natural hazard mapping
Urban heat island intensity in summer derived using daytime and nighttime LST averaged over summers of 2002-2010 from Aqua MODIS product with 1km resolution.
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Urban heat island case – impact mappingUrban heat island case – impact mapping
Daytime abd nighttime impact maps derived using the number of paramedic interventions per districts in the summers 2009-2012. (Data from Inspectorate for Emergency Situations Vasile Goldis, Arad, Romania.
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Urban heat island case – an example of risk mappingUrban heat island case – an example of risk mapping
SEERISK project risk mapping for disaster management community – no new science development but the framework to transfer of science to disaster management community. A risk map is now developed on qualitative base; our scientific aim is to develop a quantitative base for risk assessment of heat waves in urban areas.
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Further steps for a quantitative assessment of heat wave risks in urban areas Further steps for a quantitative assessment of heat wave risks in urban areas Daytime LST and Tair for location of meteorological station in AradDaytime LST and Tair for location of meteorological station in Arad
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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The use of climate information in hail related risksThe use of climate information in hail related risks
Hail related requests for insurance
Frequencies of episodes withradar reflectivity greater than a threshold at Titu location.
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Follow upFollow up
quantitative assessments of natural hazards related to climate variability and change;
best quantitative coupling with impact data to quantitatively assess the risks.