Integrated AssessmentIntegrated Assessment Community Activities

Jae EdmondsGlobal Energy Technology

Strategy Workshop gy pCollege Park, MD

May 27 2010May 27, 2010

The Parallel Phase of the Noordwijkerhout Plan+

• alternative socio-economic backgrounds, • alternative technology availability regimes, • alternative realizations of Earth system science research,

alternative stabilization scenario pathways including traditional

ReferenceReference

• alternative stabilization scenario pathways including traditional, “not-to-exceed” scenario pathways societies, economies and policies.

Development of New IAM Scenarios

RCPsSelection,

Extension to 2300, Downscaling

Stabilization

StabilizationTechnolog

yTechnolog

yPolicyPolicyRegionalRegional

“overshoot” scenario pathways, and alternative representations of regionally heterogeneous mitigation policies and measures as well as regionalmitigation policies and measures, as well as regional societies, economies and policies.

12 months 24 months 18 months 12 month

Parallel Phase Integration Phase Publication Lag

Preparatory Phase

+ Source: Jae Edmonds

ADAM PROJECTADAM PROJECThttp://www.adamproject.eu/

RECIPE PROJECThttp://www.cmcc.it/blog-en/recipe-for-a-low-carbon-transition/

Asia Modeling Exercise

Kate Calvin will discuss this shortly.

A iAsia

ExerciseModeling

The RoSE Project(Roadmaps toward sustainable energy futures)( p gy )

Project partners:4 global modeling teams: PIK (coordinator), CMCC,ERI, PNNLRegional modeling team: Tsinghua U

d k k ff h ld

RoSE research questions:

Project duration: 3 yrs, kick‐off held in Jan 2010

How robust is information from integrated assessment models w.r.t.Structural differences across models?Structural differences across models?Key assumptions within models?2nd best situations (fragmented participation, limited technology)?technology)?Effects neglected / not included in models?

Climate Policy Outreach (CPO) ProjectProject Partners:FEEM (Coordinator) PIK Renmin U Tsinghua U IIMFEEM (Coordinator), PIK, Renmin U, Tsinghua U, IIM

Ahmedabad, Indian Statistical Institute, (Guest: MIT)

Project duration: 2 5 yrs Kick-off in March 2010Project duration: 2.5 yrs, Kick-off in March 2010

Objective: Build modeling capacity and long lasting interaction between modellers e g viabetween modellers, e.g. via

Joint workshops

L i d l iti i ith i ti d liLearning and exploiting synergies with existing modeling comparison exercises (EMF24, AME, RoSE etc.)

Exchange of information and data, e.g. on baseline g , gassumptions

6

OVERVIEW OF EMF AND EMF 24

http://emf.stanford.edu/research/emf24/

What is the Energy Modeling Forum?What is the Energy Modeling Forum?

• Goal: Improve the use and usefulness of Goal: Improve the use and usefulness of energy/environment policy models

• Establish working groups to do standardized • Establish working groups to do standardized model comparisons, 3-5 meetings per studyD f d l d ff • Discover reasons for model differences, common insights and directions for research

• Established in 1976-77: 23 studies completed• EMFs 12, 14, 16, 18, 19, 21, 22 on climate change, , , , , , g

Traditional Core EMF ProcessTraditional Core EMF Process• Meeting #1

– Identify Key Issues– Design Initial Scenarios– Organize Study Groups

• Meeting #2 #3• Meeting #2, #3– Interpret Results– Revise Issues/Scenarios

• Meeting #4– Interpret Results– Outline Final ReportOutline Final Report

• Meeting #5– Review Draft Report– Review Modeler & Study Group Reports

Tentative Schedule for the StudyTentative Schedule for the Study• First Working Group Meeting:

– Stanford University - April 20-22, 2010.

• Second Working Group Meeting: – Likely in Washington DC - Fall 2011.

• Third Working Group Meeting: g p g– Likely in Europe – Spring 2011.

• Fourth Working Groups Meeting:g p g– Likely in Asia - Fall 2011.

• Fifth Working Group Meeting:t Wo g G oup eet g:– Likely at Stanford or DC - Spring 2012.

Scope of the Study (1)I l d Wid R f T h l O ti• Include Wide Range of Technology Options– Renewables– Carbon Capture and Storagep g– Nuclear– Energy Efficiency

Base Technology and Resource Supply for Fossil Fuels– Base Technology and Resource Supply for Fossil Fuels

• Include 2nd Best Transition Scenarios – Build off EMF 22 – Participation, Target and Overshoots p , g– & Other Relevant Work – e.g., Efficiency/Intensity Stds. Etc.

• Three Time Frames – think about transitions– Short Run (to 2020 or 2030)– Medium Term (2035-2050)

L T (2050 2100)– Long Term (2050-2100)

Overview of Scenario Development Process Technology Dimensions (3 to 6)

USA International E.U.

Target Target Target x2 x2 x2

Policy Approach x2

Policy Approach x2

Policy Approach x2x2 x2 x2

Composition of Working GroupComposition of Working Group

• IAM/national modeling teamsIAM/national modeling teams• Technology experts

I d • Industry experts• Experts in modeling technology/

technology change• Policy advisersy

THE IAMCTHE IAMChttp://iamconsortium.org/

The IAMC

The Integrated Assessment Consortium (IAMC) was created in 2007 in response to a call from the IPCC for ancreated in 2007 in response to a call from the IPCC for an organization to lead the integrated assessment modeling community in the development of new scenarios that could be employed by climate modelers in thecould be employed by climate modelers in the development of prospective ensemble numerical experiments for both the near term and long term.

Leaders from 3 institutions, John Weyant (EMF), Nebojsa Nakicenovic (IIASA) and Mikiko Kainuma (NIES), invited th h i ti t j i ith th t f thother research organizations to join with them to form the

IAMC for the purpose of developing scenarios.These became the 4 Representative Concentration Pathway scenariosscenarios.

The IAMC

Until now, the IAMC has been lead by its three founders—with advise from everyone—and funded byfounders with advise from everyone and funded by donations of time and money from its member organizations.The purpose of this presentation is to consider options forThe purpose of this presentation is to consider options for a more broadly based, self-perpetuating organization.

The IAMC Members

Mission of the IAMC

The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) is an organization of scientific research organizations that pursues scientific understanding of issues associated with integrated assessment modelingunderstanding of issues associated with integrated assessment modeling and analysis. The IAMC has three core missions.

1. The IAMC facilitates and fosters the development of integrated assessment models (IAMs), peer interaction and vetting of research associated with IAMs and the conduct of research employing IAMsassociated with IAMs, and the conduct of research employing IAMs, including model diagnosis, intercomparison, and coordinated studies.

2. The IAMC promotes, facilitates and helps to coordinate interactions between IAMC members and members of other scientific research

iti t d i li t h h th Cli t M d licommunities studying climate change such as the Climate Modeling (CM), the Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV), and the technology and engineering communities.

3. The IAMC provides a point of contact with other institutions and forganizations that use the science results of the IAM community, such

as the IPCC.

The IAMC

The IAMC exists to further scientific research.

The IAMC does not take political positions, nor does it exist to further political agendas.

Membership

Membership is open to organizations whose work helps further the goals of the IAMC.further the goals of the IAMC.

Terms and conditions of membership are established by th St i C ittthe Steering Committee.

Governance

Advisory CouncilThe IAMC Organization

Steering Committee

IAMC activities

Advisory Council

Conduct of IAMC workSteering

Committee2.6 v 2.9

The work of the IAMC is conducted through committees chartered by th St i C itt

RCPs

the Steering Committee and Community research programs undertaken by

IAMC activities

IAMCprograms undertaken by IAMC member organizationsCollaborations with other organizations

SC SS ODISCUSSION