Integrated Assessment Modelling: Applications at different scales Air Quality assessment strategies:...

Integrated Assessment Modelling: Applications at different scales

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic StrategyJRC ISPRA, 17-18 November, 2008

T. PignatelliT. Pignatelli, L. Ciancarella, I. D’Elia, M. Bencardino, L. Ciancarella, I. D’Elia, M. Bencardino

Italian Agency for New TechnologyEnergy and the Environment

ENEA – Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the EnvironmentENEA – Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the EnvironmentDepartment for the Environment, Global Change and Sustainable Department for the Environment, Global Change and Sustainable

DevelopmentDevelopment

Overview


In this presentation:


• The concept of Integrated Approach

• Integrated Approach in Air Pollution Modelling

• Applications at different scales

• Continental, National, Local

• Future perspectives

• Conclusions

Some historical hints

In the sixties, acidification effects were detected, in the Scandinavian rivers and lakes, due to the transboundary nature of some air pollutants, like sulphur oxides, recognized upon extensive international research.

In the seventies, the acidification became an issue in Canada, as several studies demostrated the link between sources in US and Eastern Canada and the acid deposition in the sensitive Canadian Shield.

The concept of Integrated Approach


Historical hints (2)

In the frame of the UN-ECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) increasing awareness of Air Pollution transboundary effects finally led to the definition of legally binding protocols, to take common actions.

The driving forces have changed over time, from politics to public concern, environmental damage and, more recently, health concern.



Historical hints (3)

Along years, with the improvement of the scientific knowlegde and awareness, other effects related to air pollution were taken into account. Damage to forest, crops, materials and human health became increasingly evident, due to other pollutants (e.g. Nitrogen oxides and ozone).

In time it became clear the causes of those effects were correlated among them, and had to be addressed simultaneously, so introducing the “Integrated Approach” concept.



The solution of complex problems,The solution of complex problems, like combating the like combating the effects of Air Pollution, implies the investigation of all effects of Air Pollution, implies the investigation of all the concerned aspects, looking at links, sinergies and the concerned aspects, looking at links, sinergies and trade-offs, pursuing the most effective actions to trade-offs, pursuing the most effective actions to simultaneously address the causes behind. simultaneously address the causes behind.

In addressing the Air Pollution, science research issues, In addressing the Air Pollution, science research issues, technology developments, impact on the environment and technology developments, impact on the environment and human health, macro-economic aspects, social human health, macro-economic aspects, social implications, etc. are simultaneouslyimplications, etc. are simultaneously tackled.


Integrated Assessment Approach applied to Air Pollution


Simplified flow chartSimplified flow chart

Emissions Atmospheric dispersion

Depositions &concentrations

Health/Env Effects

Control technologies

Costs of implementation

Social aspectsGDP/capita

costs

EconomicDevelopment

Anthropogenicactivities


The application of the previous schema allows:The application of the previous schema allows:

Target settings (emission, impact, costs, etc.)Target settings (emission, impact, costs, etc.)

Cost-benefit analysis, through comparison of alternative optionsCost-benefit analysis, through comparison of alternative options

Multi-scenario analysis (e.g. business as usual, CLE, MTFR, etc.)Multi-scenario analysis (e.g. business as usual, CLE, MTFR, etc.)

Identification of specific mitigation measures for all atmospheric pollutants across all economic sectors to achieve the environmental targets, at least costs



Introduction and evaluation of economic instruments (e.g. emission trading)

Evaluation of the level of social equity in policy development (cost/capita)

Evaluation of relative contributions from different geographycal areas (even at hemispherical scale)




Applications at Regional scale

• The UN-ECE CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol

• Development of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP)

• Review of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD)

Three most relevant examples of application, at regional scale, in:Three most relevant examples of application, at regional scale, in:



The Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP, doc COM(2005) 446 final)

Overall targets in EU

1. Reduce health impact from particulate matter by 47 %;2. Reduce acute mortality from ozone by 10 %; 3. Reduce acidification in ecosystem forest areas by 74%;4. Reduce acidification in ecosystem freshwaters areas by 39 %;5. Reduce eutrophication ecosystem areas by 43 %6. Reduce ozone impact on forest areas by 15 %.


• Energy projections (developed with PRIMES) compliant with Climate & Energy Package.


• Economic development and energy policy as in

PRIMES Nov 2007 baseline

• Environmental objectives of TSAP as developed in CAFE


Review of the National Emission Ceiling Directive (NEC)

TSAP objectives and NEC targets TSAP objectives and NEC targets

UnitUnit 20002000EU-27EU-27

TSAPTSAPObjectiveObjectivefor EU-25for EU-25

NEC target NEC target for EU-27for EU-2720202020

YOLLsYOLLs Million yearsMillion years 215.6215.6 -47%-47% 114.3114.3

EutrophicationEutrophication 1000 km1000 km22 831.4831.4 -43%-43% 473.9473.9

AcidificationAcidification 1000 km1000 km22 259.4259.4 -74%-74% 67.467.4

OzoneOzone Prem.deathsPrem.deaths 2029520295 -10%-10% 1826518265

From IIASA official doc :NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 6Italian Agency for New Technology

Energy and the Environment




Environmental improvements and emission reductions, Environmental improvements and emission reductions, central case, EU-27, 2020, NECcentral case, EU-27, 2020, NEC

From IIASA official doc :NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 6

Impact reductions Emission reductions



From IIASA official doc :NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 6

Life Expectancy reduction consistently with Life Expectancy reduction consistently with TSAP objectives and NEC targetsTSAP objectives and NEC targets


Applications at National scale

MoreMore recently, similar projects, based on GAINS methodology, recently, similar projects, based on GAINS methodology, have been established in Ireland, Sweden and Scandinavian Countrieshave been established in Ireland, Sweden and Scandinavian Countries

The RAINS methodology was initially developed, at national scale, The RAINS methodology was initially developed, at national scale, for Italy and the Netherlands (by IIASAfor Italy and the Netherlands (by IIASA))

Several other national IAM Projects in Europe are represented Several other national IAM Projects in Europe are represented Within the NIAM group (National Integrated Assessment ModellingWithin the NIAM group (National Integrated Assessment Modellinghttp://www.niam.scarp.se/), as part of the TFIAM, the Task Force on ), as part of the TFIAM, the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling, under the UN-ECE CLRTAP.Integrated Assessment Modelling, under the UN-ECE CLRTAP.




Nevertheless, RAINS_Italy has been successfully used in the frame of: Nevertheless, RAINS_Italy has been successfully used in the frame of:

In Italy, the transition between RAINS_IT and GAINS_IT is in In Italy, the transition between RAINS_IT and GAINS_IT is in Progress, on behalf of ENEA.Progress, on behalf of ENEA.

• The CLRTAP Gothenburg ProtocolThe CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol• The Review of the NEC DirectiveThe Review of the NEC Directive• European Centre of stock of MATerials at risk European Centre of stock of MATerials at risk (ECMAT under UN-ECE CLRTAP)(ECMAT under UN-ECE CLRTAP)




Some examples in ItalyReview of the NEC DirectiveReview of the NEC Directive

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Other

Industrial Process

Power plants

Ships

Off-road Transport

Road Transport

Domestic

Industrial Comb.

Refineries0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Other

Industrial Process

Power plants

Ships

Off-road Transport

Road Transport

Domestic

Industrial Comb.

RefineriesNOx SOx

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

VO

C e

mis

sio

ns

(k

t)

Waste

Off-road transport

Road transport

Fuel extraction anddistributionIndustrial solvent use

Domestic solvent use

Other stationary sources

Domestic

Refineries VOC 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Em

issi

oni N

H3

(kt/

a)

Stationary Sources

Transports

Waste

Other N_fertilizers

Urea consumption

AGR Other

Poultry

Pigs

Cattles NH3

NEC target: 475 kton







Some examplesLife expectancy reductions (life months ) due to anthropogenic PM2,5 at 2000 (right) and 2020 (left) (CLE scenario), in Italy

31% improvement in LER is estimated in 2020, with respect 2000




Some examplesPremature Deaths by exposure to Ozone (deaths/y)


CLE 2000 CLE 2010 MTFR 2010



Evaluation of corrosion effects on Cultural Heritage, in Italy Evaluation of corrosion effects on Cultural Heritage, in Italy


International Cooperative Programme on Effects of Air Pollutants on Materials including Cultural Monuments (ICP Materials).

UNESCO European CH Monument map

ICP Material Dose/Response functions (for limestone, sandstone, copper)

SOx deposition (mg/m2), at 2005, calculated by RAINS


Applications at Local Scale


Air Quality Measures in Enengy and Residential Sectors, in Lombardy

Emission reductions, with respect the CLE scenario, at 2010, calculated by RAINS_IT

ENERGY Efficiency Measures AQ2010 vs CLE 2010 Lombardy

-80.0%

-70.0%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

SO2 NOx PM10 COV NH3

Strengthening NOx ELVs on GasTurb Plants

BAT biomass plants (E30)

Solar Thermal Energy (E23-E24-E25)

Heat Pumps (E17)

Heat Counters (E13)

Building Efficiency (E11)

Non industrial thermal plants (E10)

Biogas from livestocks (A32)

Motor Challenge Programme (E31)

Hydroelectric (E18-E28-E29)

Wind Power (E27)

Remote Heating (E21-E22)

High Efficiency Centralized Ener. Prod. (E19)




Air Quality Measures in the Trasport Sector, in Lombardy

Emission reductions, with respect the CLE scenario, at 2010, calculated by RAINS_IT

Measures in the Transport Sector AQ 2010 vs CLE 2010 - Lombardy

-22.0%

-17.0%

-12.0%

-7.0%

-2.0%

3.0%

SO2 NOx PM10 COV NH3

(%)

Pollution charge (T9)

Cycle lanes

Public Transport Development (T8)

Subway development (T7)

Railway development (T6)

Increase in biodiesel use(T5)

Increase in methane use (T4)

Car fleet replacement (T1-T2-T3)




Change in PM10 concentrations due to AQ Plan implementation, in whole Italy

(μg/m3)

(%)

Future perspectives


Evolution of Integrated Assessment Modelling:


• Extension to Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) allows analyses of synergies and trade offs between Air Pollution and Climate Change and estimation of Co-benefits (GAINS Methodology)

• Integration and interaction among different models (EC4MAC Project http://www.ec4macs.eu)

• On technical side, the attention will focus on Methane, Black Carbon, Ozone precursors and uncontrolled use of Biomasses (as in the outcome of the recent Stockholm Conference http://www.gapforum.org).

Future perspectives


At national level, in Italy, in the frame of a Convention between ENEA and the Italian Ministry for the Environment, the Land and the Sea the Integrated Assessment Modelling System MINNI is under further development.


In particular, in the next future, GAINS_IT will become GAINS_IT on line, to allow experts from Local Authorities to independently develop policy scenarios, through remote access, as registered users.

RAINS_IT is expanding to GAINS_IT while the Atmospheric Modelling System (AMS) will comprise more meteorological years and additional features in Atmospheric Chemistry (marine aerosol, desert dust, improvement of radiative fluxes etc.).


ConclusionsItalian Agency for New TechnologyEnergy and the Environment

Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) has proved to be a powerful and flexible instrument to support the policy makers in developing cost-effective solutions to combat Air Pollution and identify sinergies and co-benefits with Climate Change.

The intrinsec flexibility of IAM allows successful applications at regional, national, local level, as well as, interaction with other models.

Recently, a proliferation of National IAM Projects is observed, while, in international fora, the exchange of experience and information is encouraged, among the differnt projects.


ConclusionsItalian Agency for New TechnologyEnergy and the Environment

IAM evolves continuously, underpinned by the work of the international scientific community, toward a more and more comprehensive modelling of physical, chemical, socio-economic aspects and their inter-relations.

At National and Local level, the cooperation and interaction with experts in the several fields involved, is encouraged, recognizing the need for improving the quality of the input data and minimizing the uncertainties, pursuing the ultimate objective of the highest level of robustness of the analyses.


Thanks for your attention!Italian Agency for New TechnologyEnergy and the Environment

Some useful links:

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/TaskForce/tfiam/ Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM, meetings and Chair’s reports) UN-ECE CLRTAP

http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/ UN-ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP)

http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/emep/welcome.html Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP)

http://www.minni.org/ National Integrated Modelling System to support the International Negotiation on Air Pollution

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