Insurance Loss Estimating using · Material properties imported from DIPPR database ... Specify...
Transcript of Insurance Loss Estimating using · Material properties imported from DIPPR database ... Specify...
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Insurance Loss Estimating
using
BakerRisk’s MaxLoss Program
OPERA Meeting
Oct 29th, 2013
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MaxLoss Major Features
Interfaces with a variety of commercial CAD &
other mapping software (jpg, dgn, bmp..etc)
Process blocks, scenarios, BI vulnerable
equipment, PPF zones, buildings, etc. are
defined using a graphical user interface
Material properties imported from DIPPR
database
New correlation for “blast overpressure to
equipment rupture to fire escalation”
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MaxLoss Major Features
State-of-the-art consequence models:
Source term
Vapor dispersion (if needed)
Flammable mass quantification
Latest BakerRisk blast technology but also includes TNT & TNO
Pool, jet, and flash fires
BLEVE and high pressure equipment rupture (BPV)
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MaxLoss Major Features
New correlation for “blast overpressure to
equipment rupture to fire escalation”
Quickly and efficiently analyze numerous
scenarios to determine EML PD estimates
BI vulnerabilities
Input data in any unit (change on-the-fly)
Tables and figures readily extracted to Excel
&Word reports
MS Platform
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Materials Library
Library of common materials and capability to
create mixture definitions
In Source/Discharge module, pure component
and mixture material properties referenced by
specifying material name
Energy calculations are automated since heat of
combustion, stoichiometric ratios and other
properties are part of material record
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Materials Definition
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Source Definition and Discharge
Prediction
Specify tank leak (finite inventory) or pump +
pipe (infinite inventory) leak
Specify material phase, tank dimensions (if
necessary), leak location, inventory ( if
necessary), impingement conditions
One mouse click gives initial condition
discharge rates
The following slides are from SafeSite3GTM;
MaxLoss 2.0 input screens would be simplified
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Source Definition and Discharge
Prediction
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Process Blocks /PES
Blocks located by clicking on map, geometry
data appears on definition screen
MaxLoss process blocks include congestion
and confinement and connectivity information
Congestion, confinement data used in MaxLoss
2.0 include Baker-Strehlow-Tang blast analyses
Geometry data automatically completed by
clicking on map
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VCE Testing to develop BST Method
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MaxLoss 2.0 Process Block Definition
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Vulnerable Equipment
MaxLoss 2.0 can add vulnerable equipment and
has easy to use interface
Equipment located by clicking on map,
geometry data appears on definition screen
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MaxLoss 2.0 PPF (Definition)
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Scenario Definition
MaxLoss 2.0 includes four types of release
scenarios
Modeled Release TNT Scenarios
Modeled Release BST Scenarios
User-Defined TNT Scenarios
User-Defined BST Scenarios
Modeled Release Scenarios - Energies computed
from source/discharge data
User-Defined Scenarios - Energies input by user
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Calculate Contours
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Cloud Drift
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MaxLoss 2.0 On-Line Help
Context-sensitive: when you query help from a
form, the relevant topic appears
Search by index keyword, table of contents, or a
text string you specify
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Current Developments
FC Curves…
QRA study includes information of explosion
pressures, impulse, flammability, toxicity and
thermal exposures
Data is plotted as an FN curve
FN curves provide a graph of Frequency (F)
and Number of Fatalities (N)
Insurance Risk Assessments consider a history
of previous accidents and the supposed
pressures that caused property loss
Results are labeled in %Loss Contours (90%,
70%,10% etc)
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How to obtain FC data
Using the QRA data; reliability and
consequence data from a previous consequence
study you obtain FN curves
We then apply the Insurance loss data to the
results of consequence (pressures from
explosions) and obtain loss estimates of process
units.
We can now generate a Frequency – Cost (FC)
curve and yield probability of given property
damage ($)
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QRA and IRE data
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Deliverables
Results include:
FC Curve (Frequency-Cost)
Process Block Risk
FC Data Table
Detailed FC Results
Sensitivity studies can be performed as well for select consequences or select process blocks
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FC Curves per Process Block
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…or for the entire facility