INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Macro & Strategy

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.

Macro & Strategy

Liquidity, Earnings, Government Budget = Added Optimism

INDIA | MACRO & STRATEGY | Monthly Dashboard

4 February 2021

Pro-growth budget along with strong earnings in Q3 added to market optimism. Budget expectedly focused on capex and Atmanirbhar Bharat in FY22 continuing with strong spending in FY21. We expect this to be the long-term trend as well. We retain our long-held positive stance on Capex theme (since Aug’20 Click here) and its positive impact on the economy as well as equities. We continue to like Cement, Capital goods, Construction, Automobiles, Logistics, Financials, and Consumer durables. Our top picks from these sectors are – Ultratech, Shree Cement, JK Cement, L&T, HDFC Bk, ICICI Bk, SBI, HDFC, Shriram Transport, SCUF, BEL, PNC Infra, NCC, Tata Motors, M&M, Gateway, TCI, and Bajaj electricals.

PC India Index continued its upward journey in December’20 to a new high after its last month’s historical peak; it was up 16% yoy and 4% mom. Growth was led by positive industrial and economic indicators, and rising financial markets. While inflation has moderated to the RBI’s target limits, we expect the central bank to maintain status quo on policy rates.

Nifty is currently trading at 21x FY22 PE. While this is expensive, considering historical trends, it’s likely to sustain at 20x+, bearing in mind liquidity premium and sector rotations, unless there are earnings and macro downgrades. Nifty 50/200/500/Midcap indices are at historical highs. The small-cap index is 18% short of its peaks.

For December 2020, the PC India Index was up 16% yoy and 4% mom; key macro and monetary indicators have registered growth. The index was supported by tax collections, forex reserves, IIP, inflation, banking indicators, port volumes, cement, steel & electricity production and equities. The index came under pressure from auto sales, PMI, capital flows, foreign trade, commodity prices, and air traffic.

Nifty valuations: Major indices like Nifty 50/100/200/500 are trading at elevated one-year forward valuations

of c.22x, same as last month. NSE Midcap 100 is trading higher at 24x, above its LTA (long-term average) of 15x. Auto, IT, pharma, FMCG, realty, and services indices are trading above +1SD. Bank is above LTA. PSU banks, infrastructure and metals are above -1SD. Media and energy are trading below -1SD.

Nifty 50 January performance: In January, the Nifty was down 2.7% mom, dragged by financials and energy, contributing 82%

to the fall; HDFC, HDFC Bank, and Kotak contributed 55% while Reliance contributed 25%. This was followed by materials (-15%, dragged by Asian Paints), and staples (-15%, pulled

down by HUL and ITC). Discretionary, IT, and Telecom delivered a robust performance, contributing 11%/7%/6% to

index growth. Bottom-15 Nifty stocks recovered vs. last month, and are now up 15% yoy. Top-15 stocks are 29% up yoy. Within Nifty 50, all sectors except energy are at/near their FYTD peak levels. Energy is trading

at a 23% discount to its FYTD high.

Nifty index weights for January 2021 Within NIFTY 50, an upward shift in weights was seen in IT/auto & ancillary/

industrials/telecom/agri chemicals/cement by 0.85%/0.52%/0.26%/0.23%/0.09%/0.03%. Higher reduction was seen in NBFC/O&G/discretionary/banks/pharma/metals by

0.51%/0.50%/0.30%/0.15%/0.14%/0.12%. Within Midcap 100, higher increases in weights were seen in banks – to 10.5% from 9.6% and

in auto & ancillary to 11.9% from 11.4%. Weights fell the most for pharma (by 0.69%) followed by agri. chemicals and building

material (by 0.45%/0.27%).

Anjali Verma, Research Analyst ([email protected])

Navaneeth Vijayan, Research Associate

([email protected]) Manoj Rawat, Research Associate

([email protected])

http://backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC_-_Eco_Dashboard_-_August_20_20200805084747.pdf

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:%20([email protected]




Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

DASHBOARD MONTHLY UPDATE

Growth trends India’s economic indicators were healthy: We expect Q3FY21 GDP at -1%, FY21

GDP to decline by -7%. For December 2020, IIP is likely to improve sequentially (reflecting growth in core-sector data like cement, steel and electricity). Composite PMI further softened in December, as the growth rates eased for manufacturing and services. Gross tax collections registered the highest growth in FY21 with 49% yoy growth vs. 23% in the previous month.

Mixed global Q4 2020 GDP: US GDP signalled recovery in Q4 while China’s growth improved; EU growth deteriorated. As per Bloomberg’s consensus estimates, growth in Japan is expected to move towards recovery.

Business growth indicators: Growth and stability phase o RECOVERED/STRONG: Port volume growth continued improvement to 4%

yoy growth vs. 3% in the previous month. Steel/cement/electricity production registered 4%/9%/8% mom growth.

o WEAK/STABLE: Rail freight growth was stable at 9% yoy. Auto sales continued to decline by 26% mom. Air traffic registered 15% mom growth (remains in deep red). Fuel consumption fell by 1.4% yoy.

External factors – deficit widens further Trade deficit: Deficit widened as exports were stable yoy while imports were

elevated, particularly of petroleum, gold and transport equipment. Imports registered 8% yoy growth.

Forex: Reserves stood at US$ 581bn (up US$ 6bn mom). Currency: Rupee appreciated by 1% mom. Global currencies: EUR depreciated

while YEN and CNY appreciated. Capital flows: Capital flows are expected to fall marginally due to lower FII and

FDI inflows. Banking indicators – continued improvement Commercial paper issuances registered a marginal dip of Rs 80bn while LAF

improved by Rs 274bn mom. Bank credit and deposit annual growth registered improvement while M3

marginally declined. For FYTD21, CIC, M3, and deposit growth fared well compared to last year; weakness was seen in credit growth (2% vs. 3% at the same time last year).

Median MCLR fell by 2bps mom at 7.3%, down 150bps from its peak in February 2019.

Spreads – Corporate: Gsec yield gap rose to 73bps vs. 60bps in November. Term premium – yield gap between 10-year Gsec and 1-year Gsec narrowed to

247bps vs. 258bps in November. Inflation and monetary policy – CPI moderated; commodity price increased India: CPI moderated considerably to 4.6%, led by a decline in food inflation. Core

inflation was marginally lower at 5.2% vs. 5.4% last month. Global: Inflation was higher in the US while EU and Japan saw deflationary

pressures. Inflation in China moved into positive territory. Bond yields: IND 10-year to US 10-year: The difference between India and US

government bond yields declined to 496bps vs. 502bps last month. Commodity prices: Brent prices up by 14% mom and London MX index up by 8%

mom. Equity markets – trended higher India: Nifty 50 was down by 2.7% mom in January. Global: FTSE Emerging Markets Index was up by 1%, FTSE World Index was down

by 2.7% mom. CYTD, among global indices, Korea/China/Japan/US/Hong Kong markets have seen a growth of 40%/34%/19%/15%/9%. Singapore and European markets were down by 8%/4%.

One-year forward PE for Nifty in January was flat at 22x vs. 22x in December 2020. FTSE Emerging/World Index PE in January traded at 15.1x/18.5x vs. 15.0x/19.2x in December 2020.



Data for January 2021 – Composite PMI is strong; commodity prices increase

Forex reserves were up by US$ 4bn mom.

Composite PMI was at 55.8 vs. 54.9 last month indicating strong manufacturing and services activity.

Improvement in CP issuances and net liquidity. INR appreciated 1% mom.

Oil and commodity prices increased by 10%/2% mom.

FIIs net positive flow into equities in January cooled down at Rs 90bn vs. Rs. 482bn in December. DIIs continued selling with net flows at Rs -120bn vs. Rs -373bn last month.

PC India Index inched up in December 2020. The index was supported by tax collections, forex reserves, IIP, inflation, banking indicators, port volumes, cement, steel & electricity production and equities. The index came under pressure from auto sales, PMI, capital flows, foreign trade, commodity prices, and air traffic.

PC India Index: Inched up in December 2020

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

Net PC India Index (April 2017 = 100)

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20

Positives' Index (Net) PC India Index Negatives' Index (rhs)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Dec

-20



PC India Index: What is it? We have taken into account various important domestic as well as global factors, economic and industry variables, production indices and prices, as well as various asset classes. Weights are assigned to each variable to arrive at Positive Index, Negative Index, and Net Index. The Positive Index is the weighted average of all the factors that are positive for India. The Negative Index is the weighted average of all factors impacting India negatively. “Net PC India Index = Positive Index - Negative Index”.

Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Fiscal Gross tax collection (yoy %) -2.6 -19.6 7.2 13.2 -14.4 -44.3 -37.3 -22.7 -20.4 2.0 -16.2 16.9 23.0 49.4

Foreign Trade Export (RsBn) 26.0 27.1 26.0 27.7 21.4 10.4 19.1 21.9 23.6 22.7 27.6 24.9 23.5 27.2 Import (RsBn) 38.1 39.6 41.1 37.5 31.2 17.1 22.2 21.1 28.5 29.5 30.3 33.6 33.4 42.6 Capital flows (USD bn) 11.0 5.6 16.2 5.4 -1.6 0.3 1.9 4.9 7.3 26.7 7.3 10.6 18.4 15.2* Forex Reserves (USD bn) 451.1 457.5 471.30 481.54 475.56 479.46 493.48 506.84 534.57 541.43 542.02 560.72 574.82 580.84

Industry IIP (Index) 128.8 134.5 137.4 134.2 117.2 54.0 90.2 107.9 117.9 117.2 123.5 129.2 126.3 132.5* Composite PMI (Index) 52.7 53.7 56.3 57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 37.8 37.2 46.0 54.6 58.0 56.3 54.9 Cement Production (Index) 142.4 159.2 164.1 160.7 129.8 22.5 117.3 137.8 126.8 109.1 126.8 141.3 132.1 143.7 Steel Production (Index) 154.9 165.2 155.4 152.9 133.2 26.9 96.4 122.3 141.9 150.7 149.9 155.5 154.1 160.7

Banking M3 (yoy, %) 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 8.8 10.7 11.7 12.3 13.2 12.6 12.2 11.6 12.5 12.4 Bank Credit (yoy,%) 8.0 7.1 8.3 7.5 6.2 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.8 6.1 Deposits (yoy, %) 9.7 10.1 11.2 10.0 7.9 9.8 10.7 11.0 12.0 10.9 10.5 10.1 10.9 11.3 Median MCLR (%) 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 CP Issuance (Rs Bn) 4584 4149 4220 4002 3445 4172 4258 3915 3748 3726 3623 3801 3732 3652 LAF (Rs Bn, Daily Average) 2383.4 2564.1 3178.0 2998.2 2966.1 4751.5 5118.4 3770.5 3611.1 3690.6 3322.0 4101.0 5294.0 5567.7

Consumer Automobile Sales ('000) 1674.7 1285.8 1603.7 1546.3 1007.8 0.0 317.6 1126.2 1463.5 1701.4 2121.6 2363.8 1865.3 1380.9 Fuel Consumption (yoy %) 8.8 0.3 0.1 4.5 -17.8 -48.7 -19.4 -8.9 -12.1 -16.0 -4.4 2.7 -3.3 -1.4 Air Traffic (yoy %) 11.2 2.5 2.2 9.0 -33.1 -100.0 -97.7 -83.5 -82.3 -76.0 -65.8 -57.2 -50.9 -43.7

Infrastructure Electricity production (YoY %) -4.9 0.0 3.2 11.5 -8.2 -22.9 -14.8 -10.0 -2.4 -1.8 4.8 11.2 3.5 4.2 Port volume (YoY,%) -0.7 6.6 2.5 3.9 -5.0 -21.1 -23.3 -14.7 -13.3 -10.3 -2.1 -1.2 3.1 4.1 Rail Freight (YoY, %) 0.9 4.3 2.8 6.5 -13.9 -35.3 -21.2 -7.7 -4.6 3.9 15.5 15.4 9.0 8.7

10 Year G-Sec Yields (Avg) India 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 United States 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 European Union -0.33 -0.27 -0.27 -0.43 -0.52 -0.43 -0.50 -0.40 -0.46 -0.47 -0.49 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57 Japan -0.096 -0.019 -0.020 -0.062 -0.029 -0.006 -0.010 0.013 0.019 0.030 0.020 0.026 0.023 0.013 China 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3

GDP (yoy growth rates, %) India 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 -23.9 -23.9 -23.9 -7.5 -7.5 -7.5 -1.0* -1.0* -1.0* United States 2.3 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -9.0 -9.0 -9.0 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 European Union 1.2 1.3 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8 Japan -0.7 -0.7 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -5.7 -5.7 -5.7 -3.0** -3.0** -3.0* China 6.0 6.0 -6.8 -6.8 -6.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.5 6.5 6.5

Inflation (CPI) (yoy growth rates, %) India 5.5 7.4 7.6 6.6 5.8 7.2 6.3 6.2 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.6 6.9 4.6 United States 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 European Union 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Japan 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 China 4.5 4.5 5.4 5.2 4.3 3.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.7 0.5 -0.5 0.2

Unemployment Rate United States 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.4 14.8 13.3 11.1 10.2 8.4 7.8 6.9 6.7 6.7 European Union 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5

Currency (vs. USD) Indian Rupee 71.5 71.2 71.3 71.5 74.4 76.2 75.7 75.7 75.0 74.6 73.5 73.5 74.3 73.6 Euro 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.09 1.11 1.09 1.09 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.22 Yen 108.9 109.1 109.3 110.0 107.7 107.8 107.2 107.6 106.7 106.1 105.6 105.2 104.4 103.8 Yuan Renminbi 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5

Global Commodity Prices London MX Index 2796 2813 2810 2649 2445 2361 2421 2610 2824 2940 2999 3023 3199 3443 Brent ($/bbl) 62.7 65.2 63.7 55.5 33.7 26.6 32.4 40.8 43.2 45.0 41.9 41.5 44.0 50.2

Indices Nifty50 12056 12168 11962 11202 8598 9860 9580 10302 11073 11388 11248 11642 12969 13982 FTSE Emerging Markets Index 524 559 534 506 422 460 464 496 537 549 537 549 596 630 FTSE World Index 361 373 369 338 292 322 336 346 363 385 372 363 407 426

Positives' Index 1264 1244 1265 1193 945 1048 1073 1115 1178 1214 1209 1283 1389 1449 Negatives' Index 211 213 212 200 183 176 181 194 209 217 220 222 234 251 (Net) PC India Index 1053 1031 1053 993 762 873 892 920 968 997 988 1060 1155 1198

Source: RBI, CSO, PPAC, SIAM, Various Ministries, Bloomberg *Our estimate **Bloomberg consensus estimate; Quarterly reported data is assumed stable for three months



FYTD growth trends (until 31st December of respective years, %)

Source: RBI, PhillipCapital India Research

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

FYTD '16 FYTD '17 FYTD '18 FYTD '19 FYTD '20 FYTD '21

Currency in circulation (%)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0


M3 (%)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0


Deposit rate (%)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Credit growth (%)



Nifty 50: Sector-wise return Contribution to Nifty-50 growth (mom)

Financials offering support since Nov’20 FYTD, sector-wise high, low, and current value in Nifty

Sectoral indices return Nifty top-15 cos. have outperformed bottom-15 cos.

Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research

5% 1% 3%

-5% -7% -4% -7%

7%

-5% -5% -2.7%

111% 99%

78% 72% 71%

66% 61%

31% 24% 12%

65%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Co

nsu

mer

Dis

cret

ion

ary

Info

rmat

ion

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Ind

ust

rial

s

Mat

eria

ls

Hea

lth

Car

e

Fin

anci

als

Ener

gy

Co

mm

un

icat

ion

Ser

vice

s

Uti

litie

s

Co

nsu

mer

Sta

ple

s

Nif

ty

MoM(%)FYTD(%)

11% 7% 6% 3%

-4% -10%

-15% -15%

-26%

-56% -60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Co

nsu

mer

Dis

cret

ion

ary

Info

rmat

ion

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Co

mm

un

icat

ion

Ser

vice

s

Ind

ust

rial

s

Uti

litie

s

Hea

lth

Car

e

Co

nsu

mer

Sta

ple

s

Mat

eria

ls

Ener

gy

Fin

anci

als

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

Jun

/20

Jul/

20

Au

g/2

0

Sep

/20

Oct

/20

No

v/2

0

Dec

/20

Jan

/21

Feb

/21

Nifty Nifty (ex-fin.)

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250C

on

sum

erD

iscr

etio

nar

y

Fin

anci

als

Ener

gy

Uti

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s

Co

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Sta

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s

Mat

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Hea

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Car

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un

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Serv

ices

Info

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Tech

no

logy

Ind

ust

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s

High-and-Low Current

High

Low

6% 1% 0%

-6% -1% -3% -6%

-2% -2% -2% -3% -3% -3% 0% -5% -4%

111% 105% 103%

98%

82% 78%

73% 69% 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 61%

50%

26%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

NSE

AU

TO In

dex

NSE

IT In

dex

NSE

SMC

P In

dex

NSE

MET

Ind

ex

NSE

MC

AP

Ind

ex

NSE

REA

L In

dex

NSE

PH

RM

Ind

ex

NSE

SRV

Ind

ex

NSE

BA

NK

Ind

ex

NSE

50

0 In

dex

NSE

20

0 In

dex

NIF

TY In

dex

NSE

10

0 In

dex

NSE

INFR

Ind

ex

NSE

NR

G In

dex

NSE

FMC

G In

dex

MoM(%) FYTD(%)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

Jun

/20

Jul/

20

Au

g/2

0

Sep

/20

Oct

/20

No

v/2

0

Dec

/20

Jan

/21

Feb

/21

Nifty 50 Nifty top 15

Nifty bottom 15



One-year rolling forward PE: Highs, lows, and current value FII and DII monthly net flows

Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 100, and Nifty Smallcap 100 Global indices: 1-year return


-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Nif

ty 5

0

NIF

TY M

idca

p 1

00

NIF

TY S

mal

lcap

10

0

Nif

ty 1

00

Nif

ty 2

00

Nif

ty 5

00

Nif

ty S

ervi

ces

Sect

or

Nif

ty R

ealt

y

Nif

ty A

uto

Nif

ty E

ner

gy

Nif

ty F

MC

G

Nif

ty IT

Nif

ty In

fras

tru

ctu

re

Nif

ty M

etal

Nif

ty P

har

ma

Nif

ty B

ank

High-and-Low Current

(120)

90

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

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/20

Jun

/20

Jul/

20

Au

g/2

0

Sep

/20

Oct

/20

No

v/2

0

Dec

/20

Jan

/21

Net DII flows (Rs. bn) Net FII flows (Rs. bn)

2,000

7,000

12,000

17,000

22,000

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

Jun

/20

Jul/

20

Au

g/2

0

Sep

/20

Oct

/20

No

v/2

0

Dec

/20

Jan

/21

Feb

/21

Nifty Index NSEMCAP IndexNSESMCP Index

40%

34%

19%

15%

14%

9%

-4%

-8%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

KOSPI INDEX

CSI 300 INDEX

NIKKEI 225

S&P 500 INDEX

Nifty 50

HANG SENG CHINA ENT INDX

Euro Stoxx 50 Pr

Straits Times Index STI



Nifty valuation charts


Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Jul/05 Aug/07 Sep/09 Oct/11 Dec/13 Jan/16 Feb/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Nifty PE

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

Jul/05 Aug/07 Sep/09 Oct/11 Dec/13 Jan/16 Feb/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Nifty PB

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Feb/06 Feb/08 Feb/10 Feb/12 Feb/14 Feb/16 Mar/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Midcap PE

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Feb/06 Feb/08 Feb/10 Feb/12 Feb/14 Feb/16 Mar/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Midcap PB

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

Nov/11 Dec/13 Jan/16 Feb/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Small Cap PE

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1


NSE Small Cap PB



Nifty indices: Auto, IT, pharma, FMCG, realty, and services indexes are trading above +1SD. Bank is above LTA. PSU banks, infrastructure and metals are above -1SD. Media and energy are trading below -1SD.

Nifty sectoral indices


LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

8

13

18

23

28

33

38


Autos 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

-1SD

0

5

10

15

20

25 Banks 12m fwd PE

LPA LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

15

20

25

30

35

40

Feb/10 Apr/12 Jun/14 Sep/16 Nov/18 Jan/21

FMCG 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30 IT 12m fwd PE

LPA LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

10

15

20

25

30

35 Pharma 12m fwd PE

+ 1SD

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

0

5

10

15

20

25


PSU Banks 12m fwd PE



Nifty sectoral indices


LPA

+ 1SD + 1SD

-1SD 4

9

14

19

24

29

34

39

44

Feb/11 May/13 Aug/15 Nov/17 Mar/20

Realty 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


Metals 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26


Infra 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD + 1SD

-1SD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Media 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Jan/09 Apr/11 Jun/13 Sep/15 Dec/17 Mar/20

Energy 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Jul/10 Dec/12 May/15 Oct/17 Mar/20

Service Sector 12m fwd PE



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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Macro & Strategy

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