Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael...
-
Upload
ashlie-garrison -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
1
Transcript of Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael...
![Page 1: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China
Michael DavidsonAdvisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus
TMP – June 2014
![Page 2: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Motivation
2013 Actual 2015 2020*
Thermal 862
Hydro 280 290 370
Wind 75 104 220
Nuclear 15 40 60
Solar 15 35 91
Biomass < 9 13 26
Source: China Electricity Council, NEA, ERI*Final 2020 targets are still under discussion
Wind is key focus of low-carbon electricity policy efforts in China.
Grid-connected wind capacity is expected to triple by 2020, and
may reach 400 / 1000 GW in 2030 / 2050.
Generation (2000-2013) Non-Fossil Capacity Targets
![Page 3: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Wind integration challenges led to additional 9 Mt coal burned in 2012
Curtailment: Available wind turbines are instructed to not put power on the grid for economic, grid stability and other reasons
Spilled wind
3
![Page 4: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Some technical causes
4
![Page 5: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Some institutional causes
• Tariffs set administratively by NDRC for each province reflecting economic costs and affordability
• Annual “generation quotas” for each coal plant to recover costs
• Transmission quotas/limits between provinces most balancing is done within province
• “Energy efficient dispatch” piloted since 2007: implementation uneven, and inconsistent with power sector market reform
5Sources: Ma, 2011; Kahrl et al., 2013; Gao & Li, 2010
![Page 6: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Research question
• What is the relative contribution of technical and institutional causes to wind curtailment in the Northeast?
• Evaluate the potential of the following solutions to reduce costs and wind curtailment:– More flexible operation of coal plants– Dynamic minimum outputs of CHP units based on heat load– Heat storage– Greater transmission interconnection
6
![Page 7: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Model
Unit commitment optimization:
– Minimizes total operating cost = variable + startup costs– Week time period: T=168 hours– Fixed heating load constrains CHP plant operation– Hydropower dispatch with historic inter-season storage rates– Up and down spinning reserves– All prices in yuan ($1 = 6.2 Yuan)
7
![Page 8: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Data
8
6 representative wind resource weeks Fixed weekly electricity load
(MW) %Thermal 71,459 80.2%Hydropower 7,005 7.9%Wind 10,606 11.9%
Total 89,069
Capacity (end of 2010)
![Page 9: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Unit composition
• Database of all generators: CEC (2010)• Updated unit breakdowns, cogeneration status
9
![Page 10: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Daily Heating Load Power-Heat Curve
Heat demand
10
![Page 11: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Modeling institutional constraints
• “Generation quotas”: set minimum capacity factor of coal generators based on provincial average and reasonable summer/winter difference
• “Provincial dispatch”: (1) Set transmission limits and transmission directions between provinces. (2) Meet reserve requirement at provincial level.
Source: Kahrl et al., 2013; Gao & Li, 2010
![Page 12: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Results
12
![Page 13: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Reference Case (Technical Factors Only)
Objective (mil RMB)
Coal Use (Mtce)
Wind Generation (GWh)
Wind Share (% Generation)
Wind Curtailment (%)
Ja1 1,454.3 2.066 504.7 7.6% 5.0%Ja2 1,481.4 2.109 358.6 5.4% 5.9%Ja3 1,425.7 2.028 629.7 9.5% 5.9%
Ma1 1,432.4 2.035 606.2 9.1% 9.6%Ma2 1,443.9 2.050 555.5 8.4% 6.9%Ma3 1,390.3 1.972 815.2 12.3% 6.1%Avg 1,438.0 2.043 578.3 8.7% 6.6%
13
0 9 18 27 36 45 54 63 72 81 90 99 108 117 126 135 144 153 1620
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Wind Profile: Ma1
wind
hydro
coal25
coal50
coal135
coal200
coal350
coal600
cogen25
cogen50
cogen135
cogen200
cogen350
cogen600
Hour
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
Ja – JanuaryMa - March
![Page 14: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Flexible coal
• Lower minimum outputs (from 54% to 40%) improve cost and wind integration
• Startup/shutdown times, ramp limits have little effect • Startup costs have noticeable effect
14
Objective (% Change from
Reference)
Wind Curtailment (% Change from
Reference)Pmin 40% -1.0% -47.9%Ramp Rates 50% 0.0% 4.2%Startup/ 24,24,6 0.0% 4.2% Shutdown 12,12,6 0.0% 0.0% Times 6,3,3 0.0% 0.0%Startup Costs 500 -0.1% -25.0% 400 -0.3% -42.7%
![Page 15: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Heat
• Dynamic outputs in dispatch worsens curtailment Economic curtailment from not shutting down a
high must-run baseload unit• Storage has potentially huge impact
15
Objective (% Change from
Reference)
Wind Curtailment (% Change
from Reference)
Dynamic, No Shift -0.9% 31.6%Dynamic, 4 Hour Shift -1.2% -4.2%Dynamic, 8 Hour Shift -1.8% -67.8%
![Page 16: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Regulatory Features: Provincial Dispatch
• Reserve requirements at provincial level increase curtailment:
16Ja1 Ja2 Ja3 Ma1 Ma2 Ma3 Avg
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
RegionalProvincial
![Page 17: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Generation Quota
• Highest curtailment for provincial dispatch with generation quota
• Difficulties w/model convergence
(Ma1 wind scenario)
17
Objective (mil RMB)
Wind Curtailment (%)
Regional Reference 1,432.40 9.6%Regional (Min CF) 1,442.90 11.3%Provincial Reference 1,444.30 12.0%Provincial (Min CF) 1,454.30 11.7%
![Page 18: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Conclusions (1)
Technical
• Absent regulatory design issues, there is curtailment (6.6% average), but still below observed levels of curtailment (15-40% in winter months)
• Heat-electricity interactions can be measured: large impact of storage implies significant coupling and potential benefits from coordination
• Some flexibility changes in coal (e.g., lower mins and reduced startup costs) will reduce curtailment…but not all (e.g., shorter startup/shutdown times, higher ramp rates)
![Page 19: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Conclusions (2)
Regulatory
• Provincial dispatch with minimum generation quotas increases curtailment on order of technical causes
• More broadly, this methodology helps identify province-level dynamics in an otherwise opaque system
• Future research: Due to economic curtailment, does cost-minimizing dispatch guarantee elimination of integration challenges?
19
![Page 20: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
Thank you谢谢
![Page 21: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
References
Gao, C., and Li, Y. (2010). Evolution of China’s power dispatch principle and the new energy saving power dispatch policy. Energy Policy, 38(11), 7346-7357.
Kahrl, F., Williams, J., Ding, J. H., & Hu, J. F. (2011). Challenges to China's transition to a low carbon electricity system. Energy Policy, 39(7), 4032-4041.
Kahrl, F., Williams, J. H., & Hu, J. (2013). The political economy of electricity dispatch reform in China. Energy Policy, 53(0), 361-369.
Kerr, T. (2008). CHP/DHC Scorecard: China. International Energy Agency. Liu, W., Lund, H., & Mathiesen, B. V. (2011). Large-scale integration of wind power into the existing
Chinese energy system. Energy, 36(8), 4753-4760.Ma, J. L. (2011). On-grid electricity tariffs in China: Development, reform and prospects. Energy Policy,
39(5), 2633-2645. Schuman, S. & Lin, A. (2012). China’s Renewable Energy Law and its impact on renewable power in
China; Progress challenges and recommendations for improving implementation. Energy Policy 51 (2012): 89-109.
Zhao, X., Zhang, S., Yang, R., & Wang, M. (2012). Constraints on the effective utilization of wind power in China: An illustration from the northeast China grid. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(7), 4508-4514.
Zhang, D., Davidson, M., Gunturu, B., Zhang, X. & Karplus, V. J. An Integrated Assessment of China’s Wind Energy Potential (Report No. 261). (MIT JPSPGC, Cambridge, MA, 2014)
![Page 22: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
China power sector reform• 1949-1985: Vertically-integrated state-run utility (Ministry of
Water Resources and Electric Power, later Ministry of Electric Power)
• 1985-1997: Private & foreign investors allowed to invest in generation, “competed” with local utilities
• 1997-2002: Ministry broken up– Regulatory fns SETC, SDPC and later NDRC– State-owned generating assets Big Five SOEs– T&D assets, system operation State Grid, Southern Grid
• 2003-present: Reform slowed – markets, indep system operator were not created
• China does not fit either model – only partially unbundled
![Page 23: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Why the Northeast
Kerr (2008)Zhang et al. (2014)
High proportion of combined heat and power (CHP) units
![Page 24: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Regional electricity/heat institutions
24
State Grid Provincial Governments
Northeast Grid
Provincial Grids
Coal Generators
Wind Subsidiaries
Energy SOEs Wind
IPPs
GovernmentQuasi-gov’tSOEOther
Municipal Governments
Ele
ctri
city
Distric
t Hea
ting
![Page 25: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Monthly Curtailment Figures
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Avg
Jilin 30.5% 34.8% 42.5% 30.3% 19.5% 11.0% 28.1%
E. IM 24.1% 27.9% 23.6% 22.3% 12.7% 6.1% 19.4%
Gansu 25.3% 25.7% 20.9% 14.2% 14.2% 10.5% 18.4%
W. IM 25.8% 26.1% 24.5% 9.6% 5.1% 4.9% 16.0%
Liaoning 23.6% 20.4% 19.1% 13.8% 3.5% 1.4% 13.6%
Heilongjiang 19.2% 20.2% 22.3% 15.9% 2.7% 0.8% 13.5%
Wind curtailment (generation) by province (1st half 2012)
Source: China Association of Agricultural Machine Manufacturers
![Page 26: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
In a region with high overcapacity
![Page 27: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Transmission
27
![Page 28: Institutional and Technical Analysis of Wind Integration Challenges in Northeast China Michael Davidson Advisors: Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Valerie J. Karplus.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649cfd5503460f949cdc7b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Transmission (Provincial Dispatch)
28