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Insights Into Tectonic Regionalisation in Seismic Hazard Analysis and Computational Methods for Delineation
Yen-Shin Chen1, Graeme Weatherill2, Marco Pagani3, GEM Working Group on Tectonic Regionalisation
1PhD Student, Understand & Managing Extremes School, Pavia, Italy2GEM Hazard Scientist, Pavia, Italy3GEM Hazard Coordinator, Pavia, Italy
26th, August, 2014 2ECEES Istanbul, Turkey
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Precedents for Tectonic Regionalisation
Jordan (1981)
USGS (1997)
Douglas (2007) Kagan et al. (2010)
Precedents for Tectonic Regionalisation
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Tectonic Regionalisation in Seismic Hazard Analysis
GMPEs• Active shallow crust• Subduction Interface/Intra-slab• Stable Continent Region• Volcanic• Non-subduction deep focus• Oceanic Travel Path• Q, attenuation• κappa
Magnitude Scaling Relations• Active shallow/subduction/SCR• Crustal age/structural maturity• Orogenic?• High/low stress drop
Tectonic Proxies• MMAX (e.g. EPRI, 1994) or Corner Magnitude• Recurrence (e.g. Truncated | Tapered G-R)• Seismogenic depth distribution?
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Tectonic Regionalisation: Basic Objective Questions, Comments
Current Regionalisation methods are mainly performed by subjective judgements
– basis for delineation of zones remains unclear
Our goal is to design an quantitative and objective definition of a regionalisation scheme/methodology
– a global data driven and transparent, scalable, replicable approach
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Possible Relevant Datasets for Seismic Hazard Regionalisation
Seismic Moment Rate
QLG Global Composite
(from Brian Mitchell, personal comm.)
Shear Wave Velocity Variation at Depth of 175 km
(Mooney, 2012)
Global Continent Crust Age Map(modified from CCGM)
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Softening the Decisions: Implementation in a Fuzzy Framework
Ex: strain Rate10-9
Activenot Active
Definitely
Definitelynot
• Crisp Classification
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Softening the Decisions: Implementation in a Fuzzy Framework
Ex: strain Rate10-9
Activenot Active
Definitely
Definitelynot
• Fuzzy Classification
Ex: strain Rate10-9
Softening the boundarydegree of belief
Definitely
Definitelynot
Based on knowledge …
ex:If Strain rate is high, then high chance to be Active
• Crisp Classification
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Example of Fuzzy Framework
Smoothed Seismic Moment Rate
Log10(Mo)(N-m yr-1-km-2) Log10(Mo)(N-m yr-1-km-2)
Nor
mal
ized
reco
rdin
g nu
mbe
r
Stable Active Exploratory Data Analysis
Log
Mo(
N-m
yr-1
km
-2)
Stable Continent Regions by Johnson, 1994
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Example of Fuzzy FrameworkSmoothed Seismic Moment Rate
Fuzzy Framework:
If moment rate is high, and S velocity var. is low Deg. of “Active” is high
Log
Mo(
N-m
yr-1
km
-2)
Shear Wave Velocity Variation
Shea
r wav
e ve
loci
ty v
ar.(%
)
(Mooney, 2012)
Stable
Shear wave velocity variation
Active
Nor
mal
ized
reco
rdin
g nu
mbe
r
Exploratory Data Analysis
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Result - Degree of Being Active
SCR regions defined by Johnson, 1994
Degree of being
“Active”
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Defuzzication– Active/ Stable Delineation
Stable Active
SCR regions defined by Johnson, 1994
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Tectonic Regionalisation Model Drive From our Study
Stable Continent Region, Non-CratonStable Continent Region, Craton
SubductionActive Continent Shallow Region
Stable Oceanic Region Active Oceanic Region
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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org