Insights into recent Income Protection experience by cause of ......07/05/2013 1 Insights into...
Transcript of Insights into recent Income Protection experience by cause of ......07/05/2013 1 Insights into...
07/05/2013
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Insights into recent Income gProtection experienceby cause of sicknessDuncan Heald and Hannah CookCMI Income Protection Committee
Workshop E04Health and Care Conference 2013Celtic Manor, Newport
16 May 2013
E04: CMI Income Protection InvestigationOutline
• An update on the committee’s recent activity and future plans
A f i di id l IP i f t d t d• A summary of individual IP experience features and trends over 1991 to 2009
• Making the experience analysis more accessible: creation of a database, by cause of sickness, for practitioners to use
• Features of claim inceptions by cause of sickness
• Features of claim terminations by cause of sickness
• Insights into claim values by cause of sickness and implications for pricing and reserving.
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E04: CMI Income Protection InvestigationAgenda
• An update on the committee’s recent activity
E i lt d t b d th d l• Experience results database and methodology
• Individual IP claim inceptions experience– A summary of trends in experience over 1991 to 2009
– Features of claim inceptions experience by cause of sickness
• Individual IP claim terminations experienceA summary of trends in experience over 1991 to 2009– A summary of trends in experience over 1991 to 2009
– Features of claim terminations experience by cause of sickness
• Insights into claim values by cause of sickness
• Plans for future work and request for feedback.
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E04: CMI Income Protection Investigation
R t ti it d t tRecent activity and outputs
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CMI Income Protection CommitteeMembers
• Joan Coverson (Chair) Gen Re
• Hannah Cook L&G• Hannah Cook L&G
• Duncan Heald SCOR Global Life
• Andrew Keeling Unum
• Gerry Kennedy Southampton University
• James Needham Wesleyan
• David Wilkie InQA
• Neil Robjohns (Secretariat) Barnett Waddingham
• Mark Paulson (Secretariat) Barnett Waddingham
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CMI IP CommitteeRecent activity and outputs
• Graduations of the 1991-98 IIP, Male, Class 1 experience– CMI Working Papers 5, 6, 7 (Terminations) and 46, 47 (Inceptions)CMI Working Papers 5, 6, 7 (Terminations) and 46, 47 (Inceptions)
– Overview of IPM 1991-98: CMI Working Paper 48
• Reporting experience for 1991 – 2006 using IPM 1991-98– CMI Working Papers 59 (reference paper) and 60 (experience report)
– Improved reporting format using MS Office Excel spreadsheets
• Data Collection 2007 2008 and 2009 results issued to CMI member offices– 2007, 2008 and 2009 results issued to CMI member offices
– Collecting data for 2010 – 2012
• Current research and developments– Experience by cause of sickness (WP and database)
– Calculation tools for practitioners.616 May 2013
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E04: CMI Income Protection Investigation
E i lt d t bExperience results database and methodology
Experience results database and methodologyDatabases of IP experience by cause, 1991-2009
• Aiming to make the experience analysis more accessible for practitioners by releasing a database of low-level results p y g
• Claim inceptions experience database– Presented as a table in an Excel spreadsheet
– Data row for each combination of attributes,
• Year (19), sex (2), occupation class (5), deferred period (5), age group (10)
– Data items provide summary totals of experience for each row
• Exposure actual (A) (split into 15 cause groups) and expected (E) claims• Exposure, actual (A) (split into 15 cause groups), and expected (E) claims
• Claim terminations experience database– Attributes extended to include duration sick (14) and cause group (15)
– Row totals for A and E are split by type: recovery or death.[Figures in brackets are the number of categories for each attribute.]
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Experience results database and methodologyGrouping of causes of sickness
0 2 500 5 000 7 500 10 000
Total numbers of claim events by cause-of-sickness category, 1991-20097 largest categories are represented throughout this presentation by colours shown
0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000
Infections (A01)Neoplasms (A02)
Endocrine and metabolic (A03)Mental Illness (A04)
Nervous system and sensory organs (A05)Circulatory (A06)
Acute respiratory (A07)Other respiratory (A08)
Digestive (non-infectious) (A09)Genito-urinary (A10)
Arthritis (A11)Musculoskeletal (A12)
Injuries (A13)Other known causes (A14)
Unknown causes (A15)
Inceptions Terminations16 May 2013 9
Experience results database and methodologyFeatures of IPM 1991-98
• IPM 1991-98 has been used as the comparison basis (for E)
• Underlying dataset:Underlying dataset: – CMI Individual IP, Standard* data, Males, CMI Occ Class 1, 1991-98
– No adjustments made for females or other occupation classes so differences in A/E directly represent differences in observed claim rates
– Aggregate causes / all-cause rates
• Claims Inceptions – rates vary with age and DP– Separate basis for each DPSeparate basis for each DP
• Claimant Recoveries – rates vary with duration sick, age and DP– Single ‘shape’ but different levels / multipliers for each DP
• Claimant Deaths – vary with duration sick, age, DP– Single ‘shape’ but different level / multiplier for DP1.
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E04: CMI Income Protection Investigation
I di id l IP i 1991 2009Individual IP experience 1991-2009:
Claim Inceptions
Claim inceptions experience, 1991 – 2009 Data volumes for claim inceptions analysis
7004 500
Average annual Individual IP claim inception counts, by quadrenniumActual (by DP) and expected (total) claim inceptions (exD); exposure (cumD)
300
400
500
600
700
1 500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
po
sure
(cu
mD
)ye
ars,
th
ou
san
ds)
Ince
pti
on
s (e
xD)
DP,
an
d t
ota
l ex
pec
ted
DP52
DP26
DP13
DP4
DP1
Expected
0
100
200
0
500
1,000
1,500
1991-94 1995-98 1999-02 2003-06 2007-09
Exp
(Lif
e
Cla
im
Act
ua
l, b
y D
Quadrennium
Expected
Exposure
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Claim inceptions experience, 1991 – 2009 Experience by sex, age and cause of sickness
Comparison of actual claim inceptions with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience by sex, age band and cause group
All years (1991-2009), Occupation Classes and DPs combined
Males Females
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
sin
g IP
M 1
991-
98
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Other
A13: Injuries
A12: Musculoskeletal
A07: Acute respiratory
A06: Circulatory
A04: Mental Illness
A02: Neoplasms
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0%
20%
40%
60%
A/E
us
0%
20%
40%
60% A01: Infections
Individual IP experience: Trends over 1991 – 2009Claim Inceptions by sex and DP
Comparison of actual claim inceptions with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience for all CMI Occupation Classes
1991-2009 by quadrennium sex and DP; all ages combined1991 2009 by quadrennium, sex and DP; all ages combined
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Features of claim inceptions experience, 1991 – 2009Ratios of claim inception rates by sex and Occ Class
Female:Male ratio of Inception Rates IIP Standard* experience for
CMI Occ Class 1; all ages combinedCMI Occ Class 1; all ages combined
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Rat
io F
:M R
atio
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0.0
0.5
91-94 95-98 99-02 03-06 07-09
DP1 DP4 DP13 DP26 DP52
Claim inceptions experience, 1991 – 2009 Experience by sex, DP and cause of sickness
Comparison of actual claim inceptions with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience by sex, DP and cause group All years (1991-2009), ages and Occupation Classes combined
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
Females
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
g IP
M 1
991-
98
Males
Other
A13: Injuries
A12: Musculoskeletal
A07: Acute respiratory
A06: Circulatory
A04: Mental Illness
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
DP01 DP04 DP13 DP26 DP520%
20%
40%
60%
80%
DP01 DP04 DP13 DP26 DP52
A/E
usi
ng
A02: Neoplasms
A01: Infections
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Individual IP experience: Trends over 1991 – 2009Claim Inceptions by sex and Occupation Class
Comparison of actual claim inceptions with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience for all DPs combined
1991-2009 by quadrennium sex and Occupation Class; all ages combined1991 2009 by quadrennium, sex and Occupation Class; all ages combined
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Claim inceptions experience, 1991 – 2009 Experience by sex, Occ Class and cause of sickness
Comparison of actual claim inceptions with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience by sex, Occupation Class and cause group All years (1991-2009), ages and DPs combined; Occ Class unknown excluded
Males Females
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
ng
IPM
199
1-98
Males
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Females
Other
A13: Injuries
A12: Musculoskeletal
A07: Acute respiratory
A06: Circulatory
A04: Mental Illness
A02: Neoplasms
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0%
20%
40%
60%
OC 1 OC 2 OC 3 OC 4
A/E
usi
n
0%
20%
40%
60%
OC 1 OC 2 OC 3 OC 4
A01: Infections
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Features of claim inceptions experience, 1991 – 2009Ratios of claim inception rates by sex and Occ Class
Ratio of Inception Rates by ClassIIP Standard* experience for
Males; DP4 (DPs 4 52 dotted); all agesMales; DP4 (DPs 4-52 dotted); all ages
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
tio
Cla
ss N
:Cla
ss 1
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0.0
0.5
91-94 95-98 99-02 03-06 07-09
Rat
Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 42 (4-52) 3 (4-52) 4 (4-52)
Features of claim inceptions experience, 1991-2009 Narrowing of the gender differential
Female:Male ratio of Inception Rates for IIP Standard* experience for DP 11991-2009 by quadrennium and cause; all ages and Occupation Classes combined
Female / Male - DP 1 - All Occupation Classes
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Rat
io
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0%
50%
91-94 95-98 99-02 03-06 07-09
A01: Infections A02: Neoplasms A04: Mental Illness
A06: Circulatory A07: Acute respiratory A12: Musculoskeletal
A13: Injuries Other All
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Features of claim inceptions experience, 1991-2009 Narrowing of the gender differential
Female:Male ratio of Inception Rates for IIP Standard* experience for DP 4 – 52 1991-2009 by quadrennium and cause; all ages and Occupation Classes combined
Female / Male - DP4-52 - All Occupation Classes
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
Rat
io
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0%
50%
91-94 95-98 99-02 03-06 07-09
All Other A12: Musculoskeletal
A04: Mental Illness A13: Injuries A06: Circulatory
A02: Neoplasms A01: Infections A07: Acute respiratory
Features of claim inceptions experience, 1991-2009 Reduced differentials between Occupation Classes
Comparison of actual claim inceptions with those expected using IPM 1991-98Individual IP Standard* experience by Occupation Class for males
Selected cause groups only; 1991-2009 by quadrennium; all ages and DPs combined
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ng
IPM
199
1-98
Musculoskeletal - Males
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Injuries - Males
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Occ Class 1 Occ Class 2 Occ Class 3 Occ Class 4
A/E
usi
n
91-94 95-98 99-02 03-06 07-09
0%
10%
20%
30%
Occ Class 1 Occ Class 2 Occ Class 3 Occ Class 4
91-94 95-98 99-02 03-06 07-09
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E04: CMI Income Protection Investigation
I di id l IP i 1991 2009Individual IP experience 1991-2009:
Claim Terminations
Claim terminations experience, 1991 – 2009Data volumes for claim terminations analysis
12 04 000
Average annual Individual IP claim termination counts, by quadrenniumActual (by DP) and expected (total) claim terminations (exD); exposure (exD)
4 0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
xpo
sure
(ex
D)
s in
cla
im,
tho
usa
nd
s)
Term
inat
ion
s (e
xD)
DP,
an
d t
ota
l ex
pec
ted
Deaths
Rec DP52
Rec DP26
Rec DP13
Rec DP4
Rec DP1
0.0
2.0
4.0
0
500
1,000
1991-94 1995-98 1999-02 2003-06 2007-09
Ex
(Lif
e ye
ars
Cla
im T
Act
ua
l, b
y D
Quadrennium
Expected
Exposure
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Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009 Expected recoveries by cause and duration sick
Count of expected claimant recoveries using actual claims in payment and all-cause recovery rates from IPM 1991-98, by duration sick, cause of sickness and sex
All years (1991-2009), ages, DPs and Occupation Classes combined
7000
8000
ount)
98
Males
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
days 7‐14 week 03 week 04 weeks 05‐08
weeks 09‐13
weeks 14‐17
weeks 18‐26
weeks 27‐30
weeks 31‐39
weeks 40‐52
weeks 53‐104
years 03‐05 years 06‐11 years 12‐98
Claim
s Exposure (co
using IPM 1991‐9
1400
1600
1800
ount)
98
Females
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
days 7‐14 week 03 week 04 weeks 05‐08
weeks 09‐13
weeks 14‐17
weeks 18‐26
weeks 27‐30
weeks 31‐39
weeks 40‐52
weeks 53‐104
years 03‐05 years 06‐11 years 12‐98
Claim
s Exposure (co
using IPM 1991‐
Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009 Experience for males, by duration sick
Comparison of claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience for 1991-2009 for males by duration sick and quadrennium
All DPs Occupation Classes and ages combined
50
100
150
200
250
A/E
usi
ng
IP
M 1
991-
98
All DPs, Occupation Classes and ages combined
0
1-2
wks
2-3
wks
3-4
wks
4-8
wks
8-13
wks
13-1
7 w
ks
17-2
6 w
ks
26-3
0 w
ks
30-3
9 w
ks
39-5
2 w
ks
1-2
yrs
2-5
yrs
5-11
yrs
11+
yrs10
0
Duration Sick
91-94 95-98 99-02 03-06 07-09
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Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009Experience by sex, duration and cause of sickness
Comparison of actual claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience by sex, duration sick and cause group
All years (1991-2009), ages, DPs and Occupation Classes combined300%
Males300%
Females
100%
150%
200%
250%
A/E Using IPM 1991‐98
100%
150%
200%
250%
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
0%
50%
0%
50%
Data Points where Actual Recoveries < 10 are excluded
Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009Experience by sex, age and cause of sickness
Comparison of actual claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience by sex, age band and cause group
All years (1991-2009), DPs, Occupation Classes and durations sick combined300%
Males 300%Females
100%
150%
200%
250%
E Using IPM 1991‐98
100%
150%
200%
250%
Females
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
0%
50%
100%
17‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64
A/E
0%
50%
100%
17‐19 20‐24 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64
Data Points where Actual Recoveries < 10 are excluded
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Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009Trends over 1991 – 2009 by sex and DP
Comparison of claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98Individual IP Standard* experience for CMI Occupation Class 1
1991-2009 by quadrennium, sex and DP; all ages and durations sick combined1991 2009 by quadrennium, sex and DP; all ages and durations sick combined
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Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009Experience by sex, DP and cause of sickness
Comparison of actual claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience by sex, DP and cause group
All years (1991-2009), ages, Occupation Classes and durations sick combined300%
Males300%
Females
100%
150%
200%
250%
PM 1991‐98
Males
100%
150%
200%
250%
Females
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Data Points where Actual Recoveries < 10 are excluded
0%
50%
100%
DP01 DP04 DP13 DP26 DP52
A/E Using IP
0%
50%
100%
DP01 DP04 DP13 DP26 DP52
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Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009Trends over 1991 – 2009 by sex and Occupation Class
Comparison of claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98Individual IP Standard* experience for all DPs combined
1991-2009 by quadrennium, sex and OC; all ages and durations sick combined1991 2009 by quadrennium, sex and OC; all ages and durations sick combined
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Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009Experience by sex, Occ Class and cause of sickness
Comparison of actual claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience by sex, Occ Class and cause group
All years (1991-2009), ages, DPs and durations sick combined200%
Males200%
Female
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
/E Using IPM 1991‐98
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Data Points where Actual Recoveries < 10 are excluded
0%
20%
40%
60%
OC 1 OC 2 OC 3 OC 4
A/
0%
20%
40%
60%
OC 1 OC 2 OC 3 OC 4
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Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009Experience for DP 1 by sex, quad and cause
Comparison of actual claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience for DP 1 by sex, quadrennium and cause group
All ages, Occupation Classes and durations sick combined250%
Males250%
Females
100%
150%
200%
E Using IPM 1991‐98
Males
100%
150%
200%
Females
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Data Points where Actual Recoveries < 10 are excluded
0%
50%
91‐94 95‐98 99‐02 03‐06 07‐09
A/E
0%
50%
91‐94 95‐98 99‐02 03‐06 07‐09
Claimant recoveries experience, 1991 – 2009Experience for DPs 4 – 52 by sex, quad and causeComparison of actual claimant recoveries with those expected using IPM 1991-98
Individual IP Standard* experience for DPs 4 – 52 by sex, quadrennium and cause groupAll ages, Occupation Classes and durations sick combined
250%Males
250%Females
100%
150%
200%
/E Using IPM 1991‐98
Males
100%
150%
200%
Females
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Data Points where Actual Recoveries < 10 are excluded
0%
50%
91‐94 95‐98 99‐02 03‐06 07‐09
A/
0%
50%
91‐94 95‐98 99‐02 03‐06 07‐09
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Claimant deaths experience, 1991 – 2009Trends over 1991 – 2009 by sex and DP
Comparison of actual claimant deaths with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience for CMI Occupation Class 1
1991-2009 by quadrennium sex and DP; all ages and durations sick combined1991 2009 by quadrennium, sex and DP; all ages and durations sick combined
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Claimant deaths experience, 1991 – 2009Experience by sex, duration and cause of sickness
Comparison of actual claimant deaths with those expected using IPM 1991-98 Individual IP Standard* experience by sex, duration sick and cause group
All years (1991-2009), ages, DPs and Occupation Classes combined800%
Females800%
Males
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
A/E
usi
ng
IP
M 1
991-
98
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0%
100%
0%
100%
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E04: CMI Income Protection Investigation
I i ht i t l i lInsights into claim valuesby cause of sickness
© 2010 The Actuarial Profession www.actuaries.org.uk
Insights into claim values by cause of sicknessRationale and methodology
• Examining the distribution of claims and experience by cause of sickness only gives parts of the picturey g p p
• It is helpful also to consider:– Claim annuity values by cause of sickness– The contribution of each cause group to total claim costs
• Graduations of claim terminations experience by cause of sickness were published by SY Ling et al
– Modelling IP Claim Termination Rates by Cause of Sickness – Ling, Waters, Wilkie – AAS 4 (II) 2009
• The following sample table combines:– CMI IIP claim inceptions expce by cause, 1991-2009, Occ Class 1– Sample annuity values by cause presented in SY Ling et al
• Modelled on CMI IIP data for 1975-2002, Occ Class 1 (or equiv)• Time trend modelled; values calculated using rates as at 2002
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Insights into claim values by cause of sicknessSample components of claim values by cause group
Cause ofSickness
Male, Age 40, DP 1 Female, Age 40, DP26
% by incidence
% byvalue
% by incidence
% byvalue
A01: Infections 12.6% 2.8% 1.4% 1.8%
A02: Neoplasms 1.1% 2.1% 19.5% 9.3%
A04: Mental Illness 6.8% 30.8% 38.9% 42.3%
A06: Circulatory 3.7% 8.8% 2.7% 3.4%
A07: Acute Respiratory 24.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%
A12: Musculo-skeletal 19.7% 20.7% 13.6% 15.2%
A13: Injuries 10.6% 6.5% 4.8% 3.7%
All other causes 21.3% 27.4% 18.7% 24.0%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
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E04: CMI Income Protection Investigation
F t lFuture plans and request for feedback
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CMI IP CommitteeIP experience by cause of sickness, 1991-2009
• Complete and release current research
CMI Working Paper• CMI Working Paper– Summary of data and methodology
– High-level analysis of experience by cause of sickness
– Overview of previous work on experience by cause of sickness
– Sample breakdown of typical claim annuity values by cause of sickness
• Databases of IP experience by cause of sickness, 1991-2009y– Low-level results in database format
• Separate tables for Inceptions and Terminations, in Excel spreadsheets
– Enable practitioners to pursue analysis in areas of interest to them
• Enable multi-dimensional analysis / modelling of experience
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CMI IP CommitteeFuture plans and request for feedback• Complete and release current research and developments
– Experience by cause of sickness (Working Paper and database)Experience by cause of sickness (Working Paper and database)
– Rate calculation tools for practitioners
• Data collection for 2010 to 2012
– Hope to complete All Office results for 2010 and 2011 this year …
– …and to analyse experience of the 2007-10 quadrennium next year
• Improving data quality and volumes• Improving data quality and volumes
• Considering further graduations work in 2014+
– Incorporate variation by sex and Occupation Class?
– 2003 – 2010 dataset?
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Questions Comments
Expressions of individual views by members of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and its staff are encouraged.
16 May 2013 43
of Actuaries and its staff are encouraged.
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter.
Thank you for your attention
CMI Income Protection Committeehttp://www.actuaries.org.uk/research-and-resources/pages/income-protection-investigation
Disclaimer and statutory information
• Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by and/or on behalf of Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (CMI). This document does not
tit t d i d h ld t b li d h Whil hconstitute advice and should not be relied upon as such. While care has been taken to ensure that it is accurate, up-to-date and useful, CMI will not accept any legal liability in relation to its contents.
• Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited is a company limited by shares and wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. It is registered in England & Wales (Company number: 8373631) with its Registered Office at: Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London, WC1V 7QJ.
© 2013 Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited.
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