Southern Oregon Business Journal 1

APRIL 2018

INSIDE:

• Combatting Fake

News

• Soil Acidification

vs

Global Warming

• Compressed

Natural Gas Pat Spangler, Owner Spangler Vineyards

NW WINEPRESS

OREGON WINERY OF THE YEAR

SPANGLER WINERY

Southern Oregon Business Journal 2

A Few Words From Greg

Getting to your demographic is puzzling everyone I meet.

The marketing and sales conversations with all industries relying on cash flow are filled with

uncertainty and divided opinions. Of course, it depends on what you’re selling. Sometimes its far

more guesswork and personal preference than science.

A very high percentage of businesses throw money at the wall to see what sticks. “Will the people

who see my advertising in the local paper be the same people who are likely to buy my products

and services? How about my television advertising? Or radio?” Often we don’t know. It could be

that there are too many people in our business sphere with completely different wants, needs and

values. We try to hit them all just in case the right person will see our company name.

So, we go for the “biggest bang for the buck”. You’ve heard that many times, right? But, we know

that is very inefficient. It becomes a numbers game—put a billboard on the highway so the three

people who might be your customer, of the 40,000 driving by each day, will come to buy your

product. How much did it cost to get those three customers?

This new age of mass communications and high speed everything keeps many awake at night.

The options we have now are more numerous than ever; and they come at us from every direction.

Who uses what we make? Who eats what we cook? Who needs the services we provide? How

and where should we tell them so they will choose us the next time a need arises?

“Build it and they will come.” No they won’t.

There must be a compelling reason for our prospects and customers to use our products or

services.

The Southern Oregon Business Journal will be working with readers, writers, and advertisers

to improve the processes we, you, and everyone you know, should be using to make

marketing and sales much more effective.

It should be fun.

Greg

Southern Oregon Business Journal 3

703 Divot Loop Sutherlin, Oregon 97479

www.southernoregonbusiness.com 541-315-6127

A JOURNAL FOR THE ECONOMICALLY

CURIOUS, PROFESSIONALLY INSPIRED AND

ACUTELY MOTIVATED

Contents

COVER PHOTO

Spangler Vineyards

Photo by Greg Henderson

Inside This Issue

4. Economic Outlook

6. Rebuilding the Pipeline

8. Getting to Work

10. Combatting Fake News

12. Technology, Grapes and Water

24. Enhanced Broadband in Rural Areas

27. Nanocrystals in Construction

30. Natural Gas Vehicle Fueling

32. Does Portland Want Affordable Hoousing

34. We smelled the Smoke

38. Is that Really a Good Idea

39. Evergreen Land Title

46. Oregon Tech

44. Leadercast

FEATURED ARTICLES

14. Oregon Winery of the Year

18. EDCO Partners with LaPine

22. Boise Cascade—Locally Rooted

28. If a Frog had Wings

40. Acidic Soils—Worse than Global Warming?

Southern Oregon Business Journal 4

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Quality Information, Informed Choices

Get to Work!

How Oregonians Commute to Work

by Christian Kaylor

Getting to and from work is a challenge for many

Oregonians. Surveys suggest that commuting is

one of our least pleasant chores. Oregonians travel

on average for 24 minutes each way to get to work,

though 7 percent of Oregonians travel for an hour

or more to get to work. The geographies and

transportation networks in our communities shape

the commuting patterns of more than a million

Oregon workers. To understand the workforce of a

community, it’s important to understand who is

working in your community, but chooses not to live

there and vice versa.

Oregonians Working Outside of Oregon

The vast majority of Oregonians work in Oregon.

However, in three counties, traveling outside of

Oregon is somewhat common: Malheur, Umatilla,

and Curry counties. In Malheur County, bordering

Idaho in the southeast corner of the state, 16

percent of the resident workforce leaves Oregon to

work. The town of Ontario is less than an hour drive

from the Boise region.

In Umatilla County, 11 percent of the resident work-

force leaves Oregon to work. Hermiston, in Umatilla

county, is just a 30 minute drive from the Tri-Cities

community in Washington State: Richland, Pasco,

and Kennewick. At the other end of Oregon, 9

percent of the workforce living in Curry County, just

north of the California border on the coast, work

outside of Oregon.

In the Portland region, 23,000 Oregonians work

outside of Oregon. The vast majority of those travel

across the Columbia River to Clark County in

Washington for work. That’s the largest flow of

workers living in Oregon to outside the state. For

context, that’s about the size of the entire Coos

County workforce. However, that 23,000 represents

just 3 percent of the workforce living in the Portland

area.

Working in Other Counties

Most Oregonians work

in the same county that

they live in. However, 20

percent of Oregonians

work outside the county

they live in. And in a few

Oregon counties, about

half the workers leave

their home to work.

Moving half the workforce

out – and back into - a

community every day

puts an unusually large

amount of pressure on

local transportation systems.

Clackamas County has the largest population

leaving the county to work every day, with 91,000

workers. That’s 48 percent of the workers living in

Clackamas County. For context, that’s larger than

the entire working population living in the Bend

metro region. The vast bulk of those commuting

workers are traveling to other counties within the

Portland region. By contrast, in neighboring

Multnomah County only 18 percent of the workers

commute outside of the county.

Two smaller counties at the edge of the Portland

region have relatively high numbers of commuters.

Columbia County (49%) at the northern end of the

Portland region and Yamhill County (35%) at the

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southwest edge. These are both rural economies

with relatively smaller populations compared with the

rest of the Portland region. Polk County has the

majority of its workforce leaving the county to work.

West Salem is in Polk County, while the rest of the

City of Salem is in Marion County, dividing the

second largest city in Oregon between two counties.

Commuters Come to the Cities to Work

Among the eight largest cities in Oregon, seven of

them have a majority workforce that resides outside

of the city limits. For example, of the 70,746 jobs

physically located within the borders of the city of

Beaverton, 87 percent of those jobs are held by

people who live outside of Beaverton. Looking

around Oregon, that’s a relatively large percentage

of commuters coming into Beaverton to work every

day. Though Gresham (78%) and Hillsboro (78%)

are not far behind Beaverton and it is common for

more than half of the workers in any Oregon city to

reside outside of the borders of that city.

Of the largest cities in Oregon, only Bend has a

majority of the workforce living

inside the city with 47 percent

of the workers residing outside

of Bend. Close behind, 55

percent of Eugene workers

live outside of the Emerald

City. Portland, Oregon’s

largest city, has an impressive

249,664 workers living outside

of Portland’s borders. The

remarkable freeway and

transit system in Portland is

necessary for transporting

about a quarter of a million

workers in and out of the city

on a regular basis.

Working from Home

Many Oregonians travel from one county to another

to get to work every day, but some never leave

home. In 2016, 6.6 percent of working Oregonians

worked from home. That ratio increased only slightly

from 10 years earlier when the figure was 6 percent.

While working from home is still relatively rare, a few

communities in Oregon have larger concentrations

of home workers. Those communities are most

prevalent in rural Central and Eastern Oregon. Two

counties stand out for having larger percentages of

folks working from home, Deschutes County with 9.5

percent and Hood River County with 10 percent.

Bikeprtland.org

Southern Oregon Business Journal 10

Combatting Online Fake News That

Travels Faster Than Truth Gary Conkling

New research shows fake news travels farther,

faster and deeper on Twitter than the truth, creating

a nightmare for reputation managers who face a

daunting challenge in fighting back. [Photo credit:

Reuters]

This is real news that should send shivers down the

backs of anyone concerned about their reputation –

false news moves through Twitter “farther, faster,

deeper and more broadly” than the truth.

The disquieting finding by a team of researchers at

MIT and published in Science is based on tracking

the online life of “news” trafficked on Twitter. Real

news and false news were judged by a collection of

online fact-checkers that included Snopes.com and

Politifact.com. The study authors found a false

rumor is retweeted and spreads 70 percent more

than a true story.

To put that into context, a true story may reach

1,000 people while a false rumor could gain an

audience of up to 100,000 Twitter users.

While experts speculate on what propels

falsehoods to travel faster online than the truth,

reputation managers should worry about how

to counter a campaign based on fast-moving,

unverified fake news. Especially as technology

“improves” to automate mass dissemination of fake

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news, turning a cascade from a single tweet into a

volcanic eruption.

The Washington Post story on the MIT findings

recalled a 2013 incident when someone hacked into

the Associated Press Twitter account and “reported”

explosions in the White House injuring President

Obama. The report was untrue, but before anyone

knew the truth, the Dow Jones index dropped 100

points – in just two minutes.

MIT researchers discovered that false news isn’t just

spread by usual suspect bots. Some of the most

viral contagions of fake news start as retweets from

random individuals, which means the job of

“monitoring the web” is pretty close to impossible.

Twitter collaborated with the researchers, which is

itself a rarity, allowing them to trace the online line-

age of 126,000 tweet cascades, spread by 3 million

Twitter users.

Skeptics can question the sample and the differenti-

ation between true and false stories. But the

underlying fact remains that clicky false stories seem

to have more online appeal and, therefore, represent

a reputation-busting tool in the hands of unscrupu-

lous or alienated people. It is a reputation manager’s

worst nightmare. Someone tells a falsehood about

you or your organization, you respond with verifiable

facts, but the false narrative still dominates.

As noted in a previous Managing Issues blog,

falsehoods that rise to the level of defamation can

be dealt with by demanding that a social media

platform removes the offending tweet. Many damag-

ing falsehoods aren’t necessarily defamatory. They

misstate facts or tell only part of the story. Debates

over environmental issues and climate change are a

great example of false or misleading narratives that

come from either side of the debate.

Big lies by big actors usually get fact-checked. Big

lies by lower profile actors seldom get fact-checked,

which means the maligned party has the burden of

trying to clean up the mess. Even lies exposed by

credible fact-checkers can get shifted to their

respective political lane of media outlets and never

be seen by the other side of a polarized citizenry.

As social media moguls explore how to limit fake

news, one tool reputation managers should consider

when faced with a cascade of false news is to fight

back on Twitter using promoted tweets. You would

be, in effect, marketing your truth.

Use tools like video that attract the most attention on

social media, including Twitter. Don’t whine. Find

credible third parties who can verify your facts and

attest to your veracity. Punch back hard, but fairly.

Tell viewers the stakes. When appropriate, include a

call to action such as shaming the person or organi-

zation responsible for the fake news – and those who

help promote it, either unintentionally or on purpose.

Don’t be afraid to cross news channels to tell your

story. Seek earned media coverage from print and

TV outlets by stressing you are doing the only thing

possible to combat the spread of false stories.

The worst thing to do is nothing. If you don’t defend

your reputation, don’t expect anyone else to defend

it. Purveyors of falsehoods may seem to have the

upper hand in an online gunfight, but if you wage an

honorable defense, you might receive more help

than you expected.

http://www.cfm-online.com/public-affairs-

blog/2018/3/12/combatting-online-fake-news-that-

travels-faster-than-truth

Gary Conkling is principal and co-founder of CFM Strategic Communications, and he leads the firm's PR practice, specializing in crisis communications. He is a former journalist, who later worked on Capitol Hill and represented a major Oregon company. But most importantly, he’s a die-hard Ducks fan. You can reach Gary at: garyc@cfmpdx.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @GaryConkling

Southern Oregon Business Journal 12

PORTLAND, Ore. – Applying stress to grapevines

by withholding irrigation during key periods of the

growing season can influence everything from the

size and yield of the ripened fruit to the flavor of wine

made from the grapes.

An Oregon startup is receiving impact investment

support from Oregon BEST to team with research-

ers at Oregon State University and the Washington

State University to fast-track a new technology that

helps vineyard owners monitor soil water tension

and more precisely manage irrigation, which can

both control plant stress and save water.

SmartVineyards LLC, based in Portland, has

developed a system of sensors, software and

machine learning tools that wirelessly monitors soil

water tension, while factoring in historical weather

data, soil properties, and other information to help

growers influence production.

Soil water tension refers to the tension in the soil

that a plant pulls against to bring water up into the

vine. When soils are wet, this tension is low. In drier

soils, the tension is high, which can be manipulated

to subject the plant to stress. By installing

SmartVineyards' sensors (pictured, right) three feet

deep in the root zone, growers can use data from

different soil depths to precisely apply or withhold

irrigation at specific times to influence foliage

growth, size of the grapes, phenolic content, etc.

"It turns out that what's important when monitoring

water use and plant stress is not how much water is

in the soil, but how easily that water can be pulled

from the soil by the plant," said Alan Campbell,

co-founder and CEO of SmartVineyards. "So

we offer a tool that helps farmers make precise

irrigation decisions based on real-time soil and

weather monitoring, plus a wide range of additional

stored information, such as historical weather data,

grape variety, soil type, the typography of the land

and other factors."

For example, if an irrigation pattern and plant stress

in a prior year returned good results, the grower can

duplicate this same watering and stress pattern

Technology Boosts Grape Quality, Saves Water

Oregon BEST January 25, 2018

Oregon BEST makes impact investment in Oregon-grown technology that saves water and fine-tunes plant stress to boost crop quality, flavor

Southern Oregon Business Journal 13

using the SmartVineyards system to attain a similar

quality of grapes. "With this technology, growers can

stress plants more, or less, at precise times, and

monitor soil water tension at different soil depths,"

Campbell said. “A grower might want to change the

irrigation volume when the fruit sets to reduce the

canopy growth, then maintain target stress levels at

various soil depths to impact fruit development."

Hector Dominguez, SmartVineyards’ co-founder and

CTO, returned to the U.S. to pursue business

opportunities after completing a master’s degree in

mechanical engineering at UC Berkeley and a Ph.D.

in robotics at the National Polytechnic Institute in

Mexico City. Dominguez said the SmartVineyards

system is complicated because it involves such a

wide range of science and technology. "We are

putting together machine learning, artificial intelli-

gence, cloud computing, IOT and the latest scientific

developments in plant physiology," Dominquez said.

"Without Oregon BEST's support, it would have

taken a very long time to get to where we are now."

Although the startup is focused on the vineyards

market initially, the technology can also be applied

to crops like onions, potatoes, cherries, apples,

blueberries, hazelnuts and hops. Irrigation stress in

onions can influence the vegetable's core shape as

well as its shelf life, Campbell said. And applying

plant stress in apple orchards might have the poten-

tial to avoid brown spots known as bitter pit.

SmartVineyards has installed its technology in

more than 15 locations in Washington, Oregon,

and California, including a test plot for Washington's

oldest winery, Chateau Ste. Michelle, which

produces more than two million cases of wine

annually and owns several estate vineyards in

eastern Washington, including one where

SmartVineyards operates a test plot.

The startup is working with a cross-disciplinary

team of five researchers that includes OSU profes-

sors Clinton Shock (crop and soil science), Chad

Higgins (biological and ecological engineering),

Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya (statistics) and Raviv

Raich (electrical engineering), as well as WSU

professor Marcus Keller (viticulture and enology).

"We are fortunate to be working with such a diverse

team of university experts to develop this technolo-

gy," Campbell said. "Oregon BEST was very helpful

in putting together this collaboration, which has

provided valuable technical assistance and given us

credibility with our early customers."

Oregon BEST offers business support and other

services to cleantech startups that have the potential

for global impact. It has invested $250,000 into the

SmartVineyards project, including the university

research team.

"We are excited about the technology SmartVine-

yards has developed because of its potential to

impact water conservation worldwide while boosting

crop yields," said David Kenney, President and

Executive Director of Oregon BEST. "Given the

impact climate change is having on global weather

patterns, we must find more innovative ways to save

water while increasing agriculture production."

Reprint: by permission Photos by SmartVineyards LLC

Gregg Kleiner, 541.740.9654 SOURCES: David Kenney, Oregon BEST, 503.780.8736; Hector Dominguez, SmartVineyards, 971.221.1449; Alan Campbell, SmartVineyards, 503.502.6302

About SmartVineyards LLC http://smartvineyards.net SmartVineyards has developed an innovative, cost-effective soil moisture monitoring system designed to provide accurate, timely and actionable data for managing vineyard irrigation to attain highest quality production. The technology, which has been installed at 15 locations in California, Oregon and Washington can also be applied to other crops, including onions, potatoes, apples, blueberries, cherries and hops. The startup is currently part of the Portland State Business Accelerator cohort.

Southern Oregon Business Journal 14

2018 Oregon Winery of the Year

Spangler Vineyards

Southern Oregon Business Journal 15

Quartz. A piece the size of a hazelnut. “They’re scattered all over this part of the vineyard.”

Winter is reluctant to let go, but evidence of Spring’s tenacity is pushing bud bumps onto the aging vines.

Pat Spangler says he probably wouldn’t have planted the Cabernet vines where they are, the second

oldest in Douglas County behind only Hillcrest Vineyard (1961), but you don’t just move well rooted vines.

So, they remain unmoved and producing.

The soil is rich and deep on the

southern half of the vineyard, a

result of the explosion of Mt

Mazama 7,700 years ago - 42

times greater than Mt St Helens

in 1980 – that formed Crater Lake

a hundred miles east of here.

That small piece of quartz was

once a part of the mountain.

Another collision of nature

during the late Mesozoic period

millions of years ago with the

subduction of the Pacific Plate

beneath the western border of

North America pushed the

mountains and the mounds of

the Umpqua Valley where they

are now. The northern side of Spangler Vineyard with its shallow rocky soil attests to that. Its perfect for

the grapes that prefer a more arid soil.

Blending, tasting, testing is the art of wine making. When wine making was just a hobby for him, Pat

discovered the craft of wine making while in the suburbs of Chicago. He bought a home with a couple

hundred vines on the property and thus began his love of the craft. Trading on the floor of the Chicago

Mercantile Exchange lacked the thrill of creating something with his hands. He had to leave.

The decision to move to Santa

Rosa, CA was easy. Winning a

few medals for his wines at the

California State Fair put wine

making in his veins. Hobbies

become passions. Buying a

vineyard was essential to the

passion.

We don’t normally think of

vineyards and wineries as a

“fixer upper” but that’s what Pat

Spangler bought in 2004. The

winery needed attention, but the

grapes and opportunity were

perfect. With this venture he

could develop his talents at

creating blends of all six

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Bordeaux varieties. Bold red wines are his favorite and the winning of 10 Platinum medals will attest to that.

“2018 Oregon Winery of the Year” The declaration by NW Winepress brought with it from wine enthusiasts

from all over the Pacific Northwest, “Its about time.” They knew.

Khayam’s Block Estate Dolcetto will be released in May 2018. It may also be the best wine Pat Spangler

has ever crafted.

The cheetah of international fame, Khayam, was born at Wildlife Safari only a couple of miles from Spangler

Vineyards. She was a celebrity of monumental proportions traveling around the world and even appearing

on the Johnny Carson show. Her bronze statue is the centerpiece of the small town of Winston. At her death

it is believed she was buried in the vineyard soils of what is now Spangler Vineyards.

Phone: 541.679.9654

info@spanglervineyards.com 491 Winery Lane

Roseburg, OR 97471-9365

Southern Oregon Business Journal 17

Rural Oregon Communities Awarded Funds to Enhance Broadband Access

Today Business Oregon announced seven recipients

of grant funds designed to advance broadband

infrastructure in rural areas.

"Bridging the digital divide is an integral part of growing

our rural economies and creating a Future Ready

Oregon," Governor Kate Brown said.

The 2016 Broadband Progress Report adopted

by the Federal Communications Commission shows

that 39% or rural Americans lack access to

broadband speed benchmarks, versus only 4%

in urban areas. To address that gap, Governor Kate

Brown authorized Business Oregon to use $500,000

from the Strategic Reserve Fund to stand up a

grant pilot program to advance rural broadband

development.

"Cultivating economic stability in rural Oregon is a key

priority for us, and identified as such in our agency's

strategic plan," said Business Oregon director Chris

Harder. "Broadband access is critical to both advancing

existing rural industries, as well as diverse economic

growth."

As the state's economic development agency,

Business Oregon works to expand broadband

access as a critical component of 21st century

infrastructure for business and community

development. Oregon cities, counties, ports, tribes,

cooperatives, non-profits, and public-private partner-

ships submitted proposals in February, 2018. There

were 25 applications submitted for more than $4.8

million in requested funding. Grants awarded will

support broadband planning and infrastructure

projects located in Baker, Columbia, Coos, Curry,

Douglas, Morrow, Harney, and Tillamook counties.

This funding is contingent on successful negotiation between Business Oregon and the recipients, of contractual terms

for the awards and performance objectives by agreed upon dates.

March 19, 2018

Organization Project Name Grant Offer Brief Description

City of Baker City Elkhorn View Industrial Park Broadband $137,000

Baker City will deploy a fiber distribution network throughout the 65 acre city-owned industrial park.

City of Boardman Broadband Strategic Planning $10,000 Boardman will develop a Broadband Strategic Plan for the city.

City of Glendale City of Glendale $140,000

Glendale will deploy a city wide fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and fiber-to-the-business (FTTB) network through a public-private partnership.

Columbia County Columbia County Broadband Project $68,300

The county will assess its broadband needs, infrastructure, vendor resources, and strategic options including a county-wide fiber ring to provide high-speed Internet services to residents, businesses, anchor institutions and emergency services throughout the county.

Coos Curry Electric Coop Broadband Feasibility Study $19,700

CCEC will conduct a feasibility study for building a broadband network to provide services to rural underserved areas of Coos, Curry, and part of Douglas counties.

Harney County Harney County Broadband $75,000

The county will develop a Broadband Strategic Plan in collaboration with the cities of Burns and Hines, and the Burns Paiute Tribe.

Tillamook Lightwave Port area of Garibaldi $50,000 TLW will expand its fiber network in the Port of Garibaldi area to deliver Gigabit services and support economic development.

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Think More, Talk Less to Be Heard Overwhelming an audience

or a reporter with too much

talk can drown out your key

message and cause those

listening to you to reach for

their smartphones. Better

advice: think more about how

to simplify what you want to

say so you talk less and are

heard better.

In communication, less is

usually more than enough. Brevity is the soul of

wit – and quite possibly the only way to get your

point across to audiences addicted to mobile

devices and plagued by shrinking attention spans.

Executive coach Greg Salciccioli instructs

presenters to deliver “clear, concise and compel-

ling content.” His advice applies to any form of

communication, especially media interviews.

A client asked me why a TV reporter totally

missed his key message after he gave an

in-person interview. I told him he drowned out his

message by offering too much information. The

reporter needed something quotable; he gave a

lecture.

In a LinkedIn blog post, Salciccioli cited research

by David Rock, author of Your Brain at Work, that

indicates full-time workers focus on their jobs for

only six hours a week – or roughly 15 percent

of their time at work. He also notes a 2016 Nielsen

report that says US adults spend more than

10 hours per day interacting with electronic media.

These two data points are not unrelated. Statistics

like that underscore why simplicity and scintillat-

ing content are necessary to grab attention.

Simplifying what you say is not the same as

dumbing down what you say. Simplification means

conveying what you want to say in as few words

as possible. Or as Joseph McCormack, author of

Brief: Make a Bigger Impact by Saying Less,

advises: “Think and speak in headlines.”

Headlines are basically the

same as sound bites – short,

catchy phrases that convey a

lot of meaning in a few words.

Presenters and spokesper-

sons may balk at reducing

their brilliance to sound bites,

but they do so at the peril of

their key messages, like my

client. If you want to be

heard, you have to do what’s

necessary to be heard.

Catering to your audience isn’t an act of

surrender. If people are interested in a subject,

they will ask for more information. However,

pepper-spraying an audience – or a reporter – with

a lot of information all at once only serves to push

them away. That TV reporter interviewing my

client couldn’t wait to beat a hasty retreat.

Contemporary audiences don’t view long orations

or debates as entertainment. Abraham Lincoln,

who participated in seven 3-hour debates with

Stephen Douglas, gave his most inspirational and

enduring speech at Gettysburg. It lasted only

three minutes and consisted of just 272 words,

punctuated by the riveting line, “government of the

people, by the people, for the people shall not

perish from the earth.” Lincoln’s memorable

remarks followed a 2-hour “keynote” speech that

has been largely forgotten.

People with a lot to say tend to put up the most

stubborn resistance to brevity. But their vanity

can’t overcome – and might actually contribute to –

the lethargy and apathy of an audience. As

humbling as it might be, people listening to a

speech or media interview will remember more of

what they see than what they hear. How you look

and present yourself can make up 80 percent of

an audience impression. All the more reason to

choose your words carefully to maximize that

other 20 percent of retention.

Speaking effectively and efficiently, as Salciccioli

Southern Oregon Business Journal 21

recommends, can earn you credibility with an

audience or a reporter. Your preparation, organi-

zation and succinct delivery makes listening

easier. Audience members don’t need to struggle

to figure out what you mean to say. A reporter

doesn’t have to scramble to find 12 usable

seconds of tape, the average length of a quote in

TV stories.

Salciccioli titled his LinkedIn blog, “The Power of

Getting to the Point.” He is absolutely right that

straightforward, brightly expressed commentary

puts you in the driver’s seat because you are

commanding the narrative. When you wander

around and drone on, you muddy and bury the

story you mean to tell. You leave it to the

audience or a reporter to decipher what you said.

My baffled client told me proudly he gave the TV

reporter enough material to fill 30 minutes of air

time. Sadly, the reporter only needed 12 seconds

of good sound for her story. The 12 seconds she

chose wasn’t his key message, which we had

worked on for two hours before the interview. My

client blamed the reporter. In reality, he had no

one to blame but himself.

If you want to make your point, take the time to

chisel it into a phrase or sentence that people can

hear, comprehend and remember. Think more and

talk less.

Gary Conkling is principal and co-founder of CFM Strategic Communications, and he leads the firm's PR practice, specializing in crisis communications. He is a former journalist, who later worked on Capitol Hill and represented a major Oregon company. You can reach Gary at garyc@cfmpdx.com and you can follow him on

Twitter at @GaryConkling.

Southern Oregon Business Journal 22

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Charleston, OR - The Charleston community invites seafood lovers to come celebrate fresh and delicious Coos Bay oysters at the 13

th annual Charleston “Ahh Shucks!” Oyster Feed on Saturday,

April 28th. The celebration is from 12 noon to 4 p.m. at the Oregon Institute of Marine Biology (OIMB) Dining Hall, located at 63466 Boat Basin Road in Charleston. This 13th annual event runs in conjunction with Oregon Oyster Week and is hosted by the Charleston Community Enhancement Corporation.

Meals will feature succulent oysters provided by local growers, including Clausen Oyster Co., Coos Bay Oyster Co., North Bend Oyster Co., Qualman Oyster Farms and Pacific Seafood Oysters. This year, cooks will prepare both large and small oyster meals. Pricing ranges from $12 for 3 oysters, $14 for 6, and $16 for 9. Attendees can choose between fried, sautéed, or steamed oysters, and enjoy meals served with dipping sauces, baked beans, coleslaw, garlic bread and a choice of beverages.

Gourmet hot dog meals will be available for non-oyster fans, at $8 for adults and $5 for kids 12 and under. Quality pink shrimp cocktails from Hallmark Fisheries and the Oregon Trawl Commission will be served for just $2. The event will include live music, River's Edge Oregon wines, desserts provided Charleston Fishing Families and a fund-raiser and drawing featuring gift certificates and prizes donated by local merchants. The Charleston Community Enhancement Corp. is a nonprofit group dedicated to improving the Charleston community for the benefit of visitors and residents. All proceeds from the Oyster Feed will help support the group’s many community projects, including support of the Charleston Food Pantry. Afterwards, join us for a fun day in Charleston where visitors can kayak the South Slough, walk along Sunset Beach and Shore Acres State Parks, go crabbing, clamming, or fishing in the Charleston Marina, shop at the Charleston merchants or learn about marine life at the Charleston Marine Life Center! For additional information, please contact: Charleston Community Enhancement Corp. Kathleen Hornstuen 541.888.4582

Celebrate Oregon Oyster Week at the

‘Ahh Shucks!’ Oyster Feed on April 28th in Charleston!

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Construction Corner: California bridge could

transform industry with nanocrystals

Korky Koroluk

“A new bridge will be built in California this summer.

That’s hardly earth-shattering news. But this one

will be different.

Thanks to the work of researchers at Purdue

University, this bridge will use concrete that has

been infused with microscopic-sized nanocrystals

from wood. The idea is that the nanocrystals will

make the concrete stronger so that less of it is

needed.

The nanocrystals are a byproduct generated by the

pulp and paper industries, among others.

Nanotechnology has grown by leaps and bounds in

the last 30 years. Nanoparticles have always been

with us, but because they are so small, we didn’t yet

have the electron microscopes necessary to see

them so that they can be manipulated.

They are, after all, as little as a billionth of a metre

wide.

For perspective, a single strand of human hair is

about 100,000 nanometres (nm) in diameter. A

sheet of newspaper is about 160,000 nm thick.

The intriguing thing about nanoparticles is that nano

-structured materials are often stronger or have dif-

ferent magnetic properties compared to other forms

or sizes of the same material. Sometimes they’re

better at conducting heat or electricity. They may be

more chemically reactive or reflect light better, or

change colour as their size or structure is altered.

And they can add strength.”

https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/

technology/2018/03/construction-corner-california-

bridge-transform-industry-nanocrystals

Korky Koroluk, Daily Commercial News

Daily Commercial News

3760 14th Avenue, 6th Floor

Markham, ON L3R 3T7

Southern Oregon Business Journal 28

“If a Frog had Wings…” Cloaking a weak argument in big—but phony—numbers

By Joe Cortright

Journalists: Stop repeating phony congestion cost estimates. They’re just weak arguments

disguised with big numbers.

This month The Economist has an excellent special

report exploring the prospects for autonomous

vehicles. They seem to be coming faster than many

people anticipated, and they pose some big

challenges and opportunities for cities. This other-

wise very useful contribution to the conversation

is marred, unfortunately by The Economist

also posting as fact the congestion cost estimates

produced by traffic monitoring firm Inrix.

As regular readers of City Observatory know,

we’ve pointed out serious problems with the Inrix

congestion cost estimates.

It’s painful to watch an otherwise intelligent journal

like The Economist uncritically reproduce the

demonstrably fictitious congestion cost estimates.

Carrying on the in the tradition of the Texas

Transportation Institute, Inrix now annually produces

some VERY SCARY NUMBERS about how much

congestion supposedly costs travelers in cities

around the world.

Congestion cost estimates are the horror fiction

sub-genre of what we’ve called “Hagiometry.”

Hagiography is flattery in prose form; hagiometry is

flattery with numbers; and congestion cost

estimates are designed solely to use big numbers

to scare people into believing that a problem is

somehow worse than it really is.

The Inrix figures are an argument—and a remarkably

flimsy one at that—masquerading as economic

statistics. The implicit argument is that there is some

state of the world in which people could travel just

as fast at peak hours than they do when there’s no

traffic on the roads. The cost estimates are

constructed based on adding up how many more

minutes it takes to travel when there’s traffic

compared to when there are no traffic delays, and

then multiplying that by some value of time. The

math may be right, but the assumption imbedded in

that argument, that there’s some way to build

enough lanes to accommodate all that traffic, is just

wrong.

In the words of Raising Arizona’s Nathan Arizona: Yeah, if a frog had wings, it wouldn’t bump its ass a- hoppin’.

A clever quantitative biologist using the

Inrix methodology could easily compute

the number of excess derriere contusions

the world’s frogs suffer every day because

of their unfortunate decision to choose

jumping rather than flying as a means of

travel. And that would provide exactly as

much insight into transportation policy as

does the Inrix report.

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There’s no way to build enough roads to eliminate congestion, at any price

The essence of the Inrix calculation is this: if there were no other cars

on the road when you wanted to drive to work each morning, and also

when you drove home each evening, here’s how much time you’d

save, and what it would be worth to you? But would it be fiscally or

even physically possible to build enough roadway space to give every-

one the same level of service at 5pm every day as you get when you’re

driving at say 2am? Of course not.

One could just as easily add up and value the total amount of time

people in the world spend traveling between any two sets of points,

and count that as the cost of not having “Star Trek” style matter-

transporters. But, you would argue, that can’t realistically be regarded

as a “cost” because such transporters don’t exist. And that’s precisely

the point, there’s no way to build a road system that allows peak hour

travelers to travel at the same speeds.

And even if you did build a stupendous amount of additional roadway

capacity (and could repeal the fundamental law of road congestion, in

which the increment of additional capacity generates more peak hour

travel thus replicating congestion), there’s absolutely no doubt that the

cost of constructing that roadway would greatly outstrip the supposed

“benefits” of eliminating congestion. We don’t have to speculate about

this: when road users are asked to pay even a fraction of the of cost of

building additional road capacity, in the form of tolls, they readily

indicate by voting with their feet (or wheels), that they attach very little

value to travel time savings. Notice, for example the case of the I-65

Ohio river crossing in Louisville. The state highway department

doubled the size of the bridge from 6-lanes to 12-lanes, and then

started charging a toll. Almost immediately traffic on the bridges fell

from 120,000 vehicles daily, to about 70,000.

Make it stop!

Here’s the point: Anyone who claims that congestion has a cost–

meaning a real, net social cost–has to propose some transportation

system that would (a) eliminate all of the delays that they’ve counted,

and (b) do it for less cost than the value of supposed value of time lost

to congestion. If they can’t do that they haven’t shown that congestion

has any real costs at all.

Credulous reporters need to start looking past the dizzying array of

numbers and ask some hard questions about the assumptions behind

them. Repeating fictitious claims about the supposed cost of conges-

tion isn’t helping their readers understand, much less solve, the world’s

urban transportation problems.

Joe Cortright is President and principal economist of

Impresa.

Joe can be found at: jcortright@cityobservatory.org

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Portland doesn’t really want to make housing affordable

By: Joe Cortright

Actions speak louder than words; blocking new housing will drive up rents

Nominally, at least, the Portland City Council is all

about housing affordability. They’ve declared a

housing emergency. In the last general election, City

voters approved a $258 million bond issue to build

more affordable housing. The Council has made

permanent a city ordinance requiring landlords to

reimburse tenants for moving expenses if they pur-

sue a no cause eviction, or if the tenant moves after

a 10 percent rent increase.

But ultimately housing affordability in the Rose City,

as everywhere, hinges on whether enough supply

gets built to accomodate the growing demand for

urban living. And the city’s zoning code and project

approval requirements are where the proverbial rub-

ber meets the road in terms of expanding housing

supply. And in a series of recent actions, the Port-

land City Council is effectively sabotaging the supply

of new housing in a way that will ultimately worsen

the city’s affordability problems.

Last week, the council voted to deny a building

permit for a proposed 17-story, 275-apartment tower

in the city’s booming Pearl District. Neighbors

opposed the tower because it blocks views (from

their recently completed condominium towers)

of one of the city’s iconic bridges. Because it abuts

the city’s Willamette River greenway, the building

is subject to the city’s design review process. And

while commissioners said they weren’t caving in on

heights or views, they claimed that the building was

somehow at odds with the city’s greenway policies.

Portland for Everyone’s Michael Anderson has

an excellent in-depth review of the proceedings in

a post a Medium: “Open Season for NIMBY

Appeals: Portland blocks 275 homes after Pearl

District neighbors ask it to.” Briefly:

. . the council unanimously voted to give the

anti-housing activists exactly what they had been

asking for: no new homes on the site.

It’s ironic because one of the virtues

of Oregon’s planning system is

that, for the most part, new develop-

ments that are allowable under

a land use plan must be approved

using “clear and objective” approval

standards. The idea is that the city

should be bound by what’s in its plan:

so if an area is designated for

apartments, the city is obligated to

approve permits for an apartment in

that area.

A loss of certainty kills off housing investment

Arbitrarily invoking a vague feeling

of discomfort about whether a project

is consistent with the greenway–and

overturning a vote of the city’s design

DENIED: The hundreds of people who would have lived here will now be bidding up rents elsewhere in Portland. (Next Portland).

Southern Oregon Business Journal 33

review commission in the process–sends a clear

signal to developers that they can’t rely on what’s

written in city plans and policies. In this case, the

developer may be forced to return to the drawing

board, and submit an entirely new proposal–and

again run the gantlet of public outcry, and again

confront a largely subjective determination as

to whether the development meets with Council

approval. Other developers are likely to heed this

lesson.

As we’ve written at City Observatory, the city’s

recently adopted inclusionary zoning law adds

yet another layer of uncertainty. The law imposes

a wide range of conditions on new 20-unit and larger

apartment buildings, generally requiring that 20

percent of units be affordable, and that affordability

be guaranteed for 99 years, and that the apartments

be comparable in size and finishes to market rate

units. The added cost of subsidizing such units is

supposed to be made up by some combination of tax

abatements, height and density bonuses, and

parking requirement waivers. But since virtually

no one has yet made their way through this process,

it’s difficult (if not impossible) for developers

to accurately assess how much time and money

compliance will require. Again, this increase in

uncertainty has a decidedly chilling effect on

prospective investment. (New apartment proposals

have come to a near standstill since the inclusionary

housing ordinance went into effect a year ago.)

There’s one more problem: no one sees the buildings

that don’t get built as a result of these disincentives

and uncertainties. In the case of the now denied

Fremont Place, we can publish a an accurate render-

ing of what the building would have looked like, had it

been approved, and tell you that 275 households will

now be competing for other housing in Portland. But

going forward, many potential housing projects won’t

even advance to the stage of having drawings, or

marching through the approval process, because of

uncertainty. Like Conan-Doyle’s hound that didn’t

bark, we won’t see the housing that doesn’t get built.

But we will likely feel it, as the still growing demand

for urban living presses up against a finite urban

housing stock.

http://cityobservatory.org/portland-doesnt-really-want-to-make-housing-affordable/

Southern Oregon Business Journal 34

We smelled

the smoke.

Now it’s

time to

wake up.

https://oregonforests.org/node/539

In the summer of 2017, Oregonians woke up and

smelled not coffee, but the pungent aroma of a thick

haze of smoke that had descended across the state.

After a mild 2016 wildfire season, following record

seasons the previous two years, Oregon’s luck

ran out. Despite the efforts of firefighting crews

regarded as among the best for private and public

lands, lightning and human-caused wildfires

ravaged the state’s forests and rangelands, making

2017 one of the worst wildfire seasons on record.

News headlines quickly captured the expense of

fighting all those fires, but fire suppression

represents just a fraction of the true cost of wildfire.

There are huge impacts to air quality and health,

school athletics, travel and tourism, employment

and the economy, transportation, and iconic Oregon

economic sectors such as the state’s wine and

timber industries.

No single state agency is charged with documenting

these costs, so the Oregon Forest Resources

Institute gathered what information is currently

available from media reports, individual interviews

and research. We released our 25-page report in

Southern Oregon Business Journal 35

Air quality and health Wildfire smoke, a mix of particulate matter and

gases, irritates the eyes, nose, throat and respirato-

ry system, and can be inhaled into the deepest part

of the lungs, according to the Oregon Health Author-

ity.

At high levels, it’s dangerous even for healthy peo-

ple, but it is especially dangerous for those with

chronic health conditions, people older than 65,

infants, children and pregnant women.

During the 2017 fire season, most of Oregon experi-

enced hazardous levels of smoke, including 160

days that were considered Unhealthy for Sensitive

Groups (USG), compared to none of those days in

2016 and fewer than half that many at the USG level

in 2015.

This led to a variety of impacts, including:

• Increased emergency room visits – 86 percent

higher than expected in the first week of

September, according to the Oregon Health

Authority.

• Cancellations of high school sporting events.

Oregon high schools canceled dozens of football

and soccer games from August through October

– more than four times as many as were

canceled in 2016 and 2015.

Travel, tourism and employment According to the most recent figures, Oregon’s

tourism industry employs about 110,000 people and

generates $11.3 billion in economic impact for the

state. In 2017, wildfires hit the industry with blazing

force, keeping away tourists and the money they

would spend in Oregon. According to the Oregon

Employment Department, hundreds of tourism

workers received early layoff notices.

Among the high-profile impacts of the wildfire smoke

that blanketed the state were:

• The Oregon Shakespeare Festival in Ashland

canceled nine performances in 2017, a direct

loss of $373,000. About 85 percent of its

audience is composed of tourists. In an average

year, the festival adds about $130 million to the

local economy. It announced that it will trim 12

positions from its 2018 budget after last year’s

revenue shortfall.

• Cycle Oregon canceled its annual ride, a

premier cycling event for the state. The ride

travels through different parts of rural Oregon

each year, amounting to $450,000 spent in local

communities.

• The Sisters Folk Festival was canceled. This

annual community festival attracts 5,000 visitors

to central Oregon and generates $1.2 million.

The proceeds would have benefited arts

education programs.

Southern Oregon Business Journal 36

Transportation For nearly three weeks, all drivers were detoured off

Interstate 84 when the highway was closed from

Hood River to Troutdale because of fire danger. This

translated to long detours for commuters and

trucking companies – a hard economic hit.

About 20 percent of the 28,000 vehicles that travel

the highway each day are freight trucks delivering

goods, according to the Oregon Department of

Transportation. Longer travel distances meant extra

time and cost.

In central Oregon, U.S. Highway 20 experienced

traffic congestion. In the Brookings area, Highway

101 was closed off and on during the fire season,

affecting 18,000 vehicles a day.

Rural and social impacts

The fires also impacted other areas of community

life, including:

• Oregon’s timber industry and its workers faced

reduced log supply at plywood plants, temporary

mill shutdowns, restrictions on logging because

of dry conditions, and losses of heavy equipment

and timber due to fire.

• limits on recreational opportunities, with popular

outdoor attractions and wilderness areas

remaining closed because of fire damage.

• a drain on the resources of nonprofit organiza-

tions that provided support for Oregonians

displaced from their homes by fires.

How do we move forward? Wildfires caused by lightning and people wreaked

havoc on Oregon’s forests and rangelands in 2017,

and the impact on Oregon life was far-reaching.

It’s clear that, with 665,000 acres burned in 2017, the

state lost timber that supports the wood products

industry, as well as other forest benefits such as

outdoor recreation, beautiful scenery, wildlife habitat

and healthy watersheds.

It’s also obvious that fires are costly in terms of

suppression efforts. During the peak of the 2017 fire

season in Oregon, some 8,000 firefighters were

working to put out wildfires across the state. In total,

it cost $454 million to fight all those fires.

Yet the costs don’t stop there. The blazes and the

smoky air they produced also took a toll on people’s

health, and on their ability to safely spend time

outside. Event cancellations, highway closures and

residential evacuations affected the economy,

including significant losses to tourism, trucking and

recipients of goods, among other industries.

Oregon is not alone in suffering worsening fire

Southern Oregon Business Journal 37

seasons. In the western United States, the length of

the average fire season has grown by 78 days since

1970, from five months to more than seven months.

The questions loom: Is this the new normal? What

economic and human effects did Oregon experience

in 2017, and what similar impacts will wildfires have

going forward?

As a society we need to ask: How we co-exist with a

fire-based forest ecosystem? What do we want from

our forests in the future? Finding the answers will be

hard and perhaps unpleasant, but the alternative of

simply waiting to suffer through another fire season

similar to 2017’s would be kicking the can down the

road.

Are there options in the forest management toolbox

to address some of the problems caused by wild-

fires? And if so, how do we overcome obstacles to

effectively using forest management tools in at-risk

communities and ecosystems?

This all begs one more question: Where

do we go from here?

For the forest,

Paul Barnum

Executive Director

Southern Oregon Business Journal 38

Is That Really a Good Idea?

We have a new way to reduce risk: now individuals

and unorganized groups can run quick informal tests

and trials that tell us right away whether an idea is

any good.

We're going to have to adopt a new way of working

together if we want to take advantage of our new

abilities.

If committees and organizations were the right way

of working together in the typewriter age, what are

the right ways of working together in the digital

age?

The answer is to become Idea Friendly. We use the

Idea Friendly Method to work together in new ways.

Back in my workforce development days circa 2003,

I used this pair of diagrams with all the partnering

organizations to illustrate the value of alignment:

The cloud and the big arrow were our workforce

system. All the little arrows were organizations,

officials, programs and pieces of the workforce

system. We were definitely a cloud, not an arrow

back then. If we could just agree on one common

purpose to bring us all into alignment, we'd all be

pulling together and the system would be bliss! It

was a nice idea.

We could apply those same diagrams to your com-

munity. The little arrows inside are all your organiza-

tions and officials. Right now, everyone is working

on their own thing without much sense of common

purpose. They all think they are headed the right

direction. The result is an awful lot of working at

cross purposes. That’s the cloud of chaos we're in

right now. It’s a big drag on our efforts, wasting a lot

of our work.

If we just had one common purpose to bring us all

into alignment…

I quit using these diagrams for small towns

because I dislike the idea of one small group

getting to decide what the goal should be for

everyone. It’s a little too close to trying to control,

decide, streamline and force. Too much Old Way,

not enough New Way.

But Heidi Khokhar from RDI and I were talking about

Idea Friendly, and a light went on for me. Heidi uses

a similar diagram in her community vision process.

She'll ask participants whether they think the chaos

results in an inviting atmosphere. The response is

almost always no with comments such as, “Who

wants to get involved when you don’t know what it’s

all leading to?” or “which action is really making a

difference, where do you enter?”

http://saveyour.town/

Southern Oregon Business Journal 39

Heidi was interested in my take on how Idea

Friendly and all this new individual action doesn’t

just add more chaos and more working at cross

purposes in our towns. I'm actually a big fan of the

chaos, in that no one is in charge. All ideas are good

enough to test. But the answer to her concern was

actually in something else she told me.

Heidi also told me that when she helps a community

with a vision, she could just about write it for them in

the first session. It wouldn’t reflect them perfectly,

but it would be close. A thriving rural community, or

some variation of that, is what we all want.

But she doesn’t do that to them, short circuiting the

process. As the people of the community continue to

meet and gather and discuss, they become more

aware of each other. They learn what others are

thinking, and they become better aligned. Knowing

what other groups and people are working on, they

start to swing their arrows a little more toward

alignment.

And that’s where it gets closer to Idea Friendly.

When we Build Connections we’re doing the same

process, but through action together rather than

discussion. You can do it with discussions, but let's

be honest, those sessions are not very attractive to

most people. It's great for reaching the people who

are always at the center of things, but regular

people are just not that interested in planning and

visioning meetings. And people who have to work 2

jobs to get by usually don't turn out for them either.

Community happens when people talk to each

other, and they talk to each other when they do

things together.

When we cut down the barriers to entry, when we

offer small but meaningful ways to Take Small Steps

and be part of our big idea, we can draw diverse

people in more easily. When we treat everyone's

ideas (and I do mean everyone's) with the same

Idea Friendly openness, we stop pushing people

away with our formality and our slow progress.

Looking back at my notes on that original cloud

diagram from fifteen years ago, I see I wrote, "Many

different pieces, not many connections." Exactly.

When we Build Connections, we grow more aligned.

All this chaotic action brings us into better alignment

because it connects us. Consensus emerges from

action because we Build Connections. When our

idea doesn't work out, we know more about other

ideas we can be part of.

If I had to draw a diagram for us now, it might be

something like many paths up the same hill. That hill

is our thriving rural community goal. We don't have

to march up single file. We can take the scenic

route, or climb the hard slope. We can Gather Our

Crowd and head up together with others who are

excited by our idea.

And from the top of that hill, we can see further and

keep moving towards progress. In fact, someone is

probably already out there ahead of us, calling us

forward. There's direction and movement, but not

one set goal.

Thanks, Heidi, for helping me refine this concept.

We'll all keep working on it together, ok?

Keep shaping the future of your town,

Becky

Becky McCray believes small towns have a future. She watches the global trends in the economy, technology and society, then she delivers practical steps rural people can implement right now to shape the future of their town. Her advice is based on her real world experience as a retail store owner and cattle rancher. She makes her home in Hopeton, Oklahoma, a town of 30 people. She doesn’t just talk about rural issues; she lives them.

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