Innovation Leadership Skills for the High-Tech...

Innovation Leadership Skills for the High-Tech Economy -

Demand, Supply and Forecasting

Tobias Hüsing, empirica Eriona Dashja, empirica

High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe Conference – Brussels, 26th January 2017

Contents

• e-Skills forecast: IT Professionals

• e-Leadership definition

• Quantification

• e-Leadership forecast

• Conclusions

European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

Latest Forecast, Dec. 2015

7,900,000

8,049,000

8,239,000

8,444,000

8,641,000

8,812,000

8,964,000

7,535,000

7,676,000

7,767,000

7,868,000

7,973,000

8,090,000

8,209,000

365,000373,000

472,000

576,000

668,000

722,000

756,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

9,000,000

9,500,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Job

s a

nd

de

ma

nd

po

ten

tia

l

EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario

Demand Potential Total

Jobs Total

674,000jobs added

jobs potential

Old Forecast of 2015


8,396,000

8,556,000

8,728,000

8,867,000

9,022,000

9,174,000

8,033,000

8,186,000

8,318,000

8,472,000

8,574,000

8,675,000

363,000

370,000

410,000

395,000448,000

500,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

9,000,000

9,500,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Job

s a

nd

de

ma

nd

po

ten

tia

l

EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario

Demand Potential Total

Jobs Total

642,000jobs added

jobs potential

Broad definition (Eurostat) of ICT specialist workforce

New Forecast Scenario, Jan. 2017 Annual averages: • Demand growth 1.8% • 128,000 job creation • 215,000 replacement Why is the gap in 2020 down to 500k? • Supply improvements

+109k jobs = 43% of effect

• Demand effects -137k demand = 54% of effect

• Different definition and other factors -10k gap = 4% of effect European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

Supply of IT Skills is growing

Supply forecast has increased, especially on the training (VET) side, education (HE) stagnating

62.000

50.000

63.000 65.000 67.000 72.000

133.000 135.000

122.000 123.000 114.000 115.000 114.000 111.000

103.000 104.000

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Vocational

Tertiary

VET = Vocational Education and Training HE = Higher Education


4-year growth averages (2011 to 2015) -

signs of skill polarization

8.3%

3.9%

0.4%

1.7%

-0.1%

7.4%

3.5%

Management, architecture and analysis

Core ICT practitioners - professional level

Other ICT practitioners - professional level

Core ICT practitioners - associate/technician level

Other ICT practitioners - associate/technician level

Mechanics and servicers

Total

e-Skills Forecast - Summary

• Estimated gap narrowing – in part due to better supply

• Polarization: middle skills might get under pressure

• Continuous education and training gain more relevance

• Overall demand keeps growing despite offshoring and automation (growing sophistication and professionalism)

• Labour market over decades met demand through lateral (“outsider”) entries, mending the gap, but still...

• ... a conflict between the growing need for increased IT professionalism and work-around practices is prevailing


e-Leadership Definition

© empirica 2016 European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

Quantification

• Sectoral: IT-intensity and size of firm determine a certain average number of innovation leaders

Estimation based on the structure of the economy

• Survey based: asking about involvement of workers in successful digital innovation

• Functional: Assigning innovation leadership probabilities to job statistics

9 European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017

e-Leaders in Europe: around 600,000

European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017 10

155,000

High growth SMEs 140,000

28

,00

0

ICT ICT intensive Low ICT intensity

Smal

l

Me

diu

m

La

rge

12

,00

0

54,000

130,000

75,000

• Analysis of online job postings (Jobfeed database )

• Search algorithm to find ads fitting all the criteria of the e-leadership definition

• DE, UK, FR, NL, AT

• November 2015 snapshot

• Assume 50% publish rate

• Assume EU total ~= 5 countries * 1.5

• 16,500 vacancies for e-leaders – Equals vacancy rate of 2.65%

(compare: total business economy: 1.8%, ICT: 2.9%)

Strategy

Trans-

formation

&

Innovation

Business

Demand: Counting Job Adverts

© empirica 2016

Digital

Leadership &

&


600.000 521.000

422.000

16,500

616.500

694.000

805,000

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

900.000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Demand Forecast for e-Leadership Jobs

Expansion demand since 2016 Replacement demand since 2016 Jobs held by 2016 workforce Demand total

383,000 173,000

Demand Forecast e-Leadership Jobs Scenario Moderate Demand Growth (3% CAGR)


Supply Scenarios Given Moderate Demand Growth (3% CAGR)

e-leader generation capacity / year

Vacancies 2020

Vacancies 2025

Over-supply 2020

Over-supply 2025

30,000 53,000 112,500 0 0

40,000 13,000 22,500 0 0

42,500 3,000 1,000 0 0

45,000 0 0 5,000 2,000

50,000 0 0 10,000 7,000

60,000 0 0 20,000 17,000

Given 3% demand growth, optimum capacity generates 40,000 to 50,000 e-leaders per year


Quantification - Summary

• Estimates based on the definition of e-Leadership • No data available from statistical offices • Status quo ~ 600,000 • Open vacancy data, some assumptions applying, as a demand metric • Future demand evolution based on scenarios only • At 3% demand growth, 40k to 50k new e-leaders annually needed

– Graduate figures from executive education (HE and business schools) are far from being even close to this order of magnitude

– Supply emerges mainly trough cross-functional experience, corporate leadership programmes and other on-the-job development.

• Significant scope for improvement of e-leadership talent development strategies, at enterprise as well as at national and EU economy level


Other Indicators As Proxy

Innovation leadership

pipeline

Innovation leadership skills base

pool

Business structure

Innovation

Technology usage

Innovation leadership

skilling

Innovation leadership policy and stakeholder

Input Throughput Output/Outcome


e-Leadership Measurement

European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017 16

8,0

6,2

5,9

5,5

5,5

5,5

5,5

5,0

4,7

4,6

4,6

4,6

4,3

4,3

4,1

4,0

4,0

3,8

3,7

3,6

3,5

3,3

3,3

3,2

3,2

3,2

3,2

2,2

4,4

IE UK DK NL FI BE MT AT SE FR DE ES EE PL LU SI HR HU LT PT BG CZ GR IT SK LV CY RO EU

Input & leading indicators - education, graduates and juniors, policy

2016 2015

7,5

7,4

7,2

7,1

7,0

6,8

6,4

6,4

6,1

5,9

5,9

5,8

5,6

5,5

5,1

4,9

4,6

4,4

4,4

4,2

4,1

4,0

4,0

3,9

3,8

3,8

3,4

3,2

5,3

SE NL FI UK LU BE DE IE DK FR AT EE MT SI CZ LV LT HU ES SK CY PT IT PL HR BG RO GR EU

Outcome & lagging indicators - senior professionals & leaders, business & innovation environment

2016 2015

Accomplishment vs. Preparedness Plotting For The Mid-Term Outlook

© empirica 2016

Innovation Leadership Skills Outlook

AT

BE

BG

CY CZ

DE

DK

EE ES

FI

FR

GR

HR HU

IE

IT

LT

LU

LV

MT NL

PL

PT

RO

SE

SI

SK

UK

EU

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 8,00

e-L

ead

ers

hip

Pre

par

ed

ne

ss

e-Leadership Accomplishment

At risk of Stagnating

Potential to Leap

Dedicated to Lead

Risk of Complacency

IE PT DE

PL AT LV

ES HU CZ

MT EU SE

DK IT LU

HR LT

GR BE

BG CY

UK SK

FR

FI

EE

SI

RO

NL


Conclusions

• Unless massive surveys are undertaken, useful to rely on indicator scoreboard as proxy measurement

• Preparedness > accomplishment: best outlook on growing their e-leadership skills maturity. Examples: – Ireland (Strengths: executive education and LLL),

– Malta (Policies and initiatives),

– Denmark (Graduates & junior practitioners, LLL),

– Spain (Executive education),

– Poland (Education programmes, graduates)

• Accomplishment > preparedness: Look out for complacency!


THANK YOU

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