Innovation, Challenge and Development: Universities in China
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India: An Emerging Giant Arvind Panagariya Columbia University September 24, 2007
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Transcript of Innovation china india_sep.07_a_panagariya
India: An Emerging Giant
Arvind PanagariyaColumbia UniversitySeptember 24, 2007
GDP and Population Growth
4.1
3.2
4.8
6.3
22.3
2.11.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1951-65 1965-81 1981-88 1988-06
GDP GrowthPopulation Growth
Poverty Ratio: 1951-62
y = 52.167e-0.002x
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61
Year
Pove
rty
Rat
io
Poverty Ratio: 1963-74
y = 50.562e0.0134x
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1972-73 1973-74
Year
Pove
rty
Rat
io
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1973-74 1977-78 1983 1987-88 1993-94 1999-00
Poverty ratio
Focusing on the recent YearsGDP Growth: Business cycle effect or a shift in the growth rate?
4.0
7.1
5.2
8.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1990-93 1993-97 1997-03 2003-07
GDP in current dollars ($billion): 16.8 percent Annual growth During 2003-06
452 461 478506
601
696
806
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Merchandise exports have doubled in three years ($billion--current)
18.1
36.8
52.763.8
79.2
102.7
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1990-91 1999-00 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06P
Services exports have more than doubled in two years ($billion--current)
4.6
16.3
26.9
46.0
60.6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1990-91 2000-01 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Exports (goods+services) to GDP ratio
7.2
11.6
15.6
20.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1990-91 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06
TOTAL foreign investment has picked up though not DFI ($billion)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1990-9
1
1991
-92
1992-9
3
1993
-94
1994-9
5
1995
-96
1996-9
7
1997
-98
1998-9
9
1999
-00
2000-0
1
2001
-02
2002-0
3
2003
-04
2004-0
5
2005-0
6P
TotalDFI
Remittances have coninued to rise rapidly($billion--current)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
Software exports have doubled in two years ($billion--current)
0.8
6.2
12.8
17.2
23.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1995-96 2000-01 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Phone Lines in Million
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
1991 July 31 2005 July 31 2006 28-Feb-07
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Passenger vehicles (million)Passenger cars (million)
