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Innovating Past Global Crisis
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Innovating Past Global Crisis Ramez Naam @ramez
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Slides from Ramez Naam's Keynote at the World Future Society 2013 conference in Chicago: Innovating Past Global Crisis. The world is up against the largest natural resource challenges it has ever faced. At the same time, we must make room to life billions out of poverty. Between this rock and hard place, there is only one way out - innovation. We must innovate in science and technology. AND we must innovate in the market systems that have thus far failed to recognize the full value of the natural resources we depend on. Called the best talk at World Future Society, this presentation doesn't dodge the hard reality of the challenges facing us, but leaves you with a sense of hope and motivation about our ability to tackle them. This talk is based on the book, The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet: http://amzn.to/15bToAJ
Transcript of Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Ramez Naam @ramez
NASA
It was the best of times, It was the worst of times
BEST OF TIMES
INFANT MORTALITYEgypt 1973: 15%Egypt 1940s: 25%US 1900: 25%
Egypt Today: 2%US Today: 0.7%
Lamia Hassan
LONGER LIVES
Rich Nations
World
Average Years of Life
Wikimedia Commons
Percent of World Living on $1 / Day
PovertyImages
Addicted to Growth
Aivaris Zukis
WORST OF TIMES
Dying Forests
Laitche
Geraldine Garcon Juncas
Dhy
Sam Beebe
NASA
NASA
Kansas University
Bruno de Giusti
Temperature Change since 1880 (degrees F)
Linfield College
GlobalWarmingArt.com
GlobalWarmingArt.com
GlobalWarmingArt.com
European PressPhoto Agency
Xinhua
UPI
Andrey Smirnov
Larry W. Smith
Dictionnaire-Environnement
Footprint
NASA
Addicted to Growth
Aivaris Zukis
Footprint 2
NASA
LONG HISTORY OF
OVERCOMING LIMITS
Wayne Osborn
Wikimedia Commons
Star of the Republic Museum
Historical Society of Canada
PHYSICAL RESOURCES ARE VAST
10,000 x
10 Seconds of Sunlight
= 1 Day of Humanity’s Energy Use
1 Hour of Sunlight
= 1 Year of Humanity’s Energy Use
0.3% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity in 2030.
Fresh Water
Not Resource Limits
Innovation Limits
Innovations Multiply Resource Access
Moore’s Law for Solar PV
AMD
Cost of Solar Power
CROSSOVER: TODAY - 2025
Michael Dawes
Storage
Javier Gil
Storage
Bensonuka
IF WE CAN CRACK ENERGY…
DESALINATION ENERGY
Atlaslin
Bern@tUSDA
Bern@tUSDA
Innovations Reduce Resource Use
Multiplier / Reducer: Agriculture
LESS ENERGY PER CALORIE GROWN
Boeing
Not Just Land: Less Oil Use
1972 2002 2011 2030 (projected)0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Barr
els
of O
il Pe
r Per
son
Per Y
ear Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year
Colfert
iPhone vs. ENIAC
Michael O’Donnell
Knowledge is a Replicator
PROBLEM SOLVED?
NO: A RACE
CONSUMPTION VS
INNOVATION
WINNING THE RACE
R&D
EDUCATION
POVERTY REDUCTION
TECHNOLOGY ACCEPTANCE
FIX THE MARKET
FIX MARKET FAILURES
Terry Luns
Marvin Greene
Cleveland State University
Cleveland State University
Commons
Brent Durken
Decoupled Growth From Pollution
Rules Not Resources
NASA
NASA
CFC Release (thousands of tons)
Bob Baer
THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(A WIDER VARIETY
THAN TODAY)
EXTERNALITY
THINGS WE CARE ABOUT
THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE
(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)
(Improving the Market Algorithm)
Tax the Bad, Not the Good
(Improve the Tax Algorithm)
Income Tax Carbon Tax
David Suzuki
Pollution NOT
an inevitable outcome of
Growth
Cleveland State University
Brent Durken
NASA
NASA
Not LimitsPolicy
Design of our EconomyPace of Innovation
What Can We Do?
1. Communicate
2. Participate
3. Innovate
4. Keep Hope
Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other Resources
