Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties...
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Transcript of Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties...
![Page 1: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer
![Page 2: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
First Test - Germany
• Why Germany? • Two Major Parties• Election Timing• Data Availability• Consistent Elections • Accountable Head of State
• Assumptions• CDU/CSU• Third Parties Insignificant
![Page 3: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Data Analysis - Germany
• Results• No ROBUST correlation
• Possible Causes• German worries about inflation• Lack of enough data
• Next Step• Where is quarterly GDP growth important?
![Page 5: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Data Analysis – Spain
• Result • Still no ROBUST correlation
• Possible Causes• Data very limited• Importance of Economic Vote• Political Scandals
![Page 7: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Take Aways
• The theory
• The literature
• The data
![Page 8: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Works Cited
• Hibbs, Douglas. "The 2012 US Presidential Election: Implications of the Bread and Peace Model." Douglas-hibbs.com. 28 May 2011. Web. 10 Oct. 2011. <http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/Election2012/2012Election-MainPage.htm>.
• Resources, Election. "Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies." Election Resources on the Internet / Recursos Electorales En La Internet. 27 Sept. 2011. Web. 10 Oct. 2011. <http://electionresources.org/es/index_en.html>.
• OECD. "Quarterly National Accounts : Quarterly Growth Rates of Real GDP, Change over Previous Quarter." OECD StatExtracts. Web. 10 Oct. 2011. <Quarterly National Accounts : Quarterly Growth Rates of real GDP, change over previous quarter>.
![Page 9: Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer. First Test - Germany Why Germany? Two Major Parties Election Timing Data Availability Consistent Elections.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022033106/56649ed95503460f94be78e7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Works Cited 2
• Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections Jac C. Heckelman and Hakan Berument Southern Economic Journal Vol. 64, No. 4 (Apr., 1998), pp. 987-1000 Published by: Southern Economic Association Article Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1061215
• Alan I. Abramowitz Online Publication date: 2008 Volume: 41 Start page:691 Publication: PS: Political Science & Politics DOI: 10.1017/S1049096508081249 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1049096508081249
• Economics and elections in Western Europe: 1960–1997 Henry W. Chappell, Jr, Linda Gonçalves Veiga Economics and elections in Western Europe: 1960–1997, Electoral Studies, Volume 19, Issues 2-3, June 2000, Pages 183-197, ISSN 0261-3794, 10.1016/ S0261-3794(99)00047-5. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379499000475)
• Econometrics and Presidential Elections Ray C. Fair The Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 10, No. 3 (Summer, 1996), pp. 89-102 Published by: American Economic Association Article Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2138521
• Of Time and Presidential Election Forecasts Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien PS: Political Science and Politics Vol. 29, No. 1 (Mar., 1996), pp. 37-39 Published by: American Political Science Association Article Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/420189