Ingenuity Theory: Adapting to Complexity. H.G. Wells “Hard imaginative thinking has not increased...
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Transcript of Ingenuity Theory: Adapting to Complexity. H.G. Wells “Hard imaginative thinking has not increased...
Ingenuity Theory:Ingenuity Theory:
Adapting to ComplexityAdapting to Complexity
H.G. WellsH.G. Wells
““Hard imaginative thinking has Hard imaginative thinking has not increased so as to keep pace not increased so as to keep pace with the expansion and with the expansion and complications of human societies complications of human societies and organizations.” This is “the and organizations.” This is “the darkest shadow upon the hopes darkest shadow upon the hopes of mankind.”of mankind.”
Are the problems we’reAre the problems we’reconfronting becoming harder?confronting becoming harder?
Two Questions
If so, can we solve them?If so, can we solve them?
Most definitely
Too often not
Are there ultimate constraints Are there ultimate constraints on human development?on human development?
Larger Question
It depends on how we define “development.” But, by the currentdefinition, yes.
Economic paradigmHuman beings are:Human beings are:““Rational ConsumersRational Consumers”
Key concepts:Key concepts:Consumption/production;Consumption/production;Investment/savingInvestment/saving
Factors of production (or system inputs):Factors of production (or system inputs):Capital and labor Capital and labor Sometimes land and ideasSometimes land and ideas
Ingenuity paradigm
Human beings are:Human beings are:““Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”
Key concepts:Key concepts:Ingenuity Ingenuity requirementrequirement and and supplysupply
Factors of problem-solvingFactors of problem-solving(or system inputs):(or system inputs):Matter, energy (work), and Matter, energy (work), and ingenuityingenuity
Sets of instructions (SOIs) that Sets of instructions (SOIs) that tell us how to arrange the tell us how to arrange the constituent parts of our physical constituent parts of our physical and social worlds in ways that and social worlds in ways that help us achieve our goals.help us achieve our goals.
Ingenuity
Length of SOIsLength of SOIs
or, more specificallyor, more specifically
Algorithmic complexity (with Algorithmic complexity (with if/then gates)if/then gates)
Measure of Ingenuity
Human beings useHuman beings use ingenuity ingenuity
To guide the application ofTo guide the application of energy energy
To arrange theTo arrange the matter matter around themaround them(including materials and people)(including materials and people)
In ways that they hope will solveIn ways that they hope will solvetheir problemstheir problems
Two types of ingenuity
TechnicalTechnicalSocialSocial
Ingenuity Ingenuity GapGap
Time
Supply
Requirement
Value added of Ingenuity Theory:Value added of Ingenuity Theory:Gives us a metric to operationalize theGives us a metric to operationalize the““difficulty” of a problem. This allows us to:difficulty” of a problem. This allows us to:
• Compare the difficulty of diverse problems Compare the difficulty of diverse problems across spaceacross space
• Track the change in difficulty of a single Track the change in difficulty of a single problem across timeproblem across time
• Separate the issue of rising problem Separate the issue of rising problem difficulty from the issue of our capacity to difficulty from the issue of our capacity to “keep up” (the two sides of the ingenuity “keep up” (the two sides of the ingenuity gap).gap).
Once we separate the two sides of the gap,Once we separate the two sides of the gap,we can:we can:
• Analyze the factors making our Analyze the factors making our problems more difficultproblems more difficult
• Analyze the factors determining Analyze the factors determining whether we can keep up.whether we can keep up.
Is our requirement Is our requirement for ingenuity rising?for ingenuity rising?
Six Factors Driving up our Ingenuity Requirement
1.1. Changing valuesChanging values
2.2. Extended time horizonExtended time horizon
3.3. Decreasing resourcesDecreasing resources
4.4. Rising complexityRising complexity
5.5. Increasing paceIncreasing pace
6.6. More surprisesMore surprises
1.1. Changing Changing valuesvalues
2.2. Extended Extended time time horizonhorizon
3.3. Decreasing Decreasing resourcesresources
4.4. Rising Rising complexitycomplexity
5.5. Increasing Increasing pacepace
6.6. More More surprisessurprises
Factor:Factor: Relates to: Relates to: Assumes: Assumes: Affects: Affects:
DefinitionDefinitionofofproblemproblem
Inputs toInputs toproblemproblemsolvingsolving
IntrinsicIntrinsicfeaturesfeaturesofofproblemproblem
ConstrainedConstrainedSubstitutabilitySubstitutability
Law ofLaw ofrequisiterequisitevarietyvariety
MaintenanceMaintenancerequirementrequirement
ExtraordinaryExtraordinaryrequirementrequirement
Can we always supply the Can we always supply the ingenuity we need?ingenuity we need?
The ingenuity supply chain
BrainsBrains
ScienceScience
PoliticsPolitics
MarketsMarkets
In this new In this new world, what world, what
should we do?should we do?
Four things to do in this new world
1.1. Recognize complexity of problemsRecognize complexity of problems andand solutions solutions
3. Focus on increasing resilience3. Focus on increasing resilience
2. Use decentralized experimentation2. Use decentralized experimentation to search for possible solutions to search for possible solutions
4. Front load ingenuity supply4. Front load ingenuity supply
Four-Fold Recommendation:
1.Complex problems require complex solutions
Helps to think in terms Helps to think in terms of “fitness landscapes”of “fitness landscapes”
Need to be aware of “law of Need to be aware of “law of requisite varietyrequisite variety
Engaged in constant experimentationEngaged in constant experimentation
And willing to learn fromAnd willing to learn fromfailurefailure
Four-Fold Recommendation:
2. Decentralized Response
Multiple “agents” with diverse strategiesMultiple “agents” with diverse strategies
Problem Types
ProblemProblem Solution Solution Locus of Locus of DefinitionDefinition Problem- Problem-
SolvingSolving
Type IType I
Type IIType II
Type IIIType III
ClearClear
ClearClear
UnclearUnclear
ClearClear
UnclearUnclear
UnclearUnclear
CentralizedCentralized
MixedMixed
DecentralizedDecentralized
Allow them to search for solutions with Allow them to search for solutions with as much autonomy as possibleas much autonomy as possible
Link them together within a loose Link them together within a loose information networkinformation network
Create multiple problem-solving Create multiple problem-solving “entities”“entities”
Iteratively reward successes;Iteratively reward successes;penalize failurespenalize failures
A pragmatic approach
Loosen couplingLoosen coupling
Increase bufferingIncrease buffering
Increase redundancy Increase redundancy
Install circuit breakersInstall circuit breakers
Four-Fold Recommendation:
3. Increase system resilience
TimeTime
Inge
nuity
Req
uire
men
tIn
genu
ity R
equi
rem
ent Distant time-horizon,
Sustainable policies
Proximatetime-horizon,Unsustainablepolicies
4. Front-load ingenuity supply