Infrastructure, Innovation, and the Digital Divide in Asia
26
Infrastructure, Innovation, and the Digital Divide in Asia: Lessons from Internet Production History Version 1.0 September, 2005 Tom Vest Packet Clearing House
Transcript of Infrastructure, Innovation, and the Digital Divide in Asia
Infrastructure, Innovation,
and the Digital Divide in Asia: Lessons from Internet Production History
Version 1.0
September, 2005
Tom Vest
Packet Clearing House
Rising official, public Interest in the Internet and Internet policy
Some interest predicated on sovereignty issues/claims
Some predicated on concerns about economic development, differential growth rates, e.g., the Digital Divide
de regia non est disputandum, but...
By definition, sovereignty issues are domain of pure politics
Issues of economics and development are different -- research, data, facts can play a useful role...
i.e., only 50% politics...
The Internet routing table:A rich resource for policy research
Digital Divide often defined in terms of asymmetrical growth in:
Users
i.e., subscribers, opportunistic users
i.e., diversity of content and services...and value
i.e., time online, multiple access methods
...with “asymmetry” defined by means of national comparisons
Usage
Uses
Users
= IP addresses injected into the Internet routing table by an
individual ISP/network operator
Internet routing table(s) informs these questions in the aggregate(s)
+ + escaling factors
policy era-specific factors growth slack/inefficiencyUsers, Usage Uses
Where to count Internet production?
Each of those views may vary substantially in almost every way -- except one:
All will share a common view of the network of origination for each Internet resource*
ee
e
e e
e
e
e eee
Each router connected maintains a local view of paths leading to every Internet resource
router
Autonomous SystemAS
routerEach of those views may vary substantially in almost every way -- except one:
All will share a common view of the network of origination for each Internet resource*
Each router connected maintains a local view of paths leading to every Internet resource
AS
ee
e
e e
e
e
e eee
Autonomous System
ee
e
e e
e
e
e eee
Autonomous System
ee
e
e e
e
e
e eee
Autonomous System
How to count Internet production?
Individual Autonomous
systems can be plausibly
associated with national
jurisdictions of ownership/
administration
VN
AU
JPSummed production of national ASes
= National Internet Production
Internet production - who!s counting?
University of Oregon Route Views ProjectCentralized collection of “global” routing table snapshots from
multiple vantage points, 1997-present
Packet Clearing HouseLocal capture of partial routing tables from 40+ Internet Exchange Points around the world
Tony Bates, Philip Smith, Geoff Huston/APNIC, CAIDA…Focus on scarce protocol resource husbandry, efficiency of route
aggregation, bogon detection/remediation
CAIDA IPv4 BGP Geopolitical AnalysisSingle snapshot of international distribution of Internet resources, June
11, 2001
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,800,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
As-yet Unidentified
Northern America
Polynesia
Micronesia
Melanesia
Caribbean
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Northern Europe
Europe
Eastern Europe
Western Asia
South-eastern Asia
South-central Asia
Eastern Asia
Asia
Australia and New Zealand
South America
Central America
Western Africa
Southern Africa
Northern Africa
Middle Africa
Eastern Africa
Internet Production Trends by Region
Internet Production in Asia
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
MYANMAR
LAO PDR
CAMBODIA
BRUNEI
VIET NAM
PHILIPPINES
INDONESIA
SINGAPORE
THAILAND
MALAYSIA
BRITISH INDIAN OCEAN
MALDIVES
AFGHANISTAN
BHUTAN
NEPAL
BANGLADESH
SRI LANKA
PAKISTAN
INDIA
AMERICAN SAMOA
SAMOA
COOK ISLANDS
FRENCH POLYNESIA
MICRONESIA
PALAU
NORTHERN MARIANAS
GUAM
VANUATU
FIJI
MONGOLIA
MACAU
HONG KONG
TAIWAN
KOREA
CHINA
JAPAN
NEW CALEDONIA
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
NEW ZEALAND
AUSTRALIA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
So what? What does it mean? How much Internet production
should there be?
Q: Internet!s “end-to-end” nature often cited -- where does one find logical ends in the physical world?
A: On interfaces of devices connected to physical media -- copper, coax, fiber -- that enable/embody Internet users, usage, uses...
Copper
Physical media -- the big picture
e.g., dial (users)... DSL (usage)...
First enterprise (uses), then international...
More users, usage...
Fiber
Coax
Physical media -- the historical view: a coincidence of technology and policy
Copper Legacy infrastructure...
Access segment competition (for some)...
Coax
Fibermultiplexing
“Value-added” services, separation of core/long distance from access, wholesale capacity...
B2B
wholesale access...
B2CC2C
Physical media -- the stakes: significance of access
Copper est. 9 billion miles in high density areas c. 2003
Maybe 1 billion unduplicated miles,
much idle/underutilized
est. 900 million miles deployed c. 2003
Fiber
Coax
Measuring logical ends against physical ends: global view
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Chi
na
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Japa
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erm
any
Indi
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Main Lines
Deployed (m)
Routed IP
Addresses (100k)By originating AS
1: 1 Ratio
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* 2005*
FRENCH POLYNESIA
SAMOA
MICRONESIA
FIJI
VANUATU
INDIA
NEPAL
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
BHUTAN
SRI LANKA
BANGLADESH
MALDIVES
MYANMAR
VIET NAM
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
PHILIPPINES
THAILAND
CAMBODIA
MALAYSIA
SINGAPORE
BRUNEI
MONGOLIA
CHINA
KOREA
MACAU
JAPAN
TAIWAN
HONG KONG
NEW CALEDONIA
NEW ZEALAND
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
AUSTRALIA
Measuring logical ends against physical ends: regional view
Measuring logical ends against physical ends: detailed view
0.01
0.10
1.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* 2005*
INDIA
NEPAL
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
BHUTAN
SRI LANKA
BANGLADESH
MYANMAR
VIET NAM
INDONESIA
LAO PDR
PHILIPPINES
THAILAND
CAMBODIA
MALAYSIA
MONGOLIA
CHINA
What drives logical / physical utilization rates?
Building efficient connections across distinct media, market segments
e.g., availability of (vast) wholesale capacity to
enterprises...freedom of interconnection...
e.g., availability of (non-duplicable)
wholesale access to non-facilities builders
e.g., regulatory parity across media to
promote technology-driven design choices
-> More users, usage, uses per unit of infrastructure investment
Measuring logical ends against physical ends: the ASN connection
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Chi
na
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Japa
n G
erm
any
Indi
aB
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aU
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Italy
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Spai
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, Chi
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Ukr
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Aus
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Egyp
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Afr
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Network
OperatorsOriginating ASNs
Main Lines
Deployed (m)
Routed IP
Addresses (100k)By originating AS
1: 1 Ratio
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Post97ASNs Northern America NorteLegacyASNs Northern America NortePost97ASNs Polynesia IslandsLegacyASNs Polynesia IslandsPost97ASNs Micronesia IslandsLegacyASNs Micronesia IslandsPost97ASNs Melanesia IslandsLegacyASNs Melanesia IslandsPost97ASNs Caribbean IslandsLegacyASNs Caribbean IslandsPost97ASNs Western Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Western Europe EuropePost97ASNs Southern Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Southern Europe EuropePost97ASNs Northern Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Northern Europe EuropePost97ASNs Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Europe EuropePost97ASNs Eastern Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Eastern Europe EuropePost97ASNs Western Asia AsiaLegacyASNs Western Asia AsiaPost97ASNs South-eastern Asia AsiaLegacyASNs South-eastern Asia AsiaPost97ASNs South-central Asia AsiaLegacyASNs South-central Asia AsiaPost97ASNs Eastern Asia AsiaLegacyASNs Eastern Asia AsiaPost97ASNs Asia AsiaLegacyASNs Asia AsiaPost97ASNs Australia and New Zealand ANZUSLegacyASNs Australia and New Zealand ANZUSPost97ASNs South America AmericasLegacyASNs South America AmericasPost97ASNs Central America AmericasLegacyASNs Central America AmericasPost97ASNs Western Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Western Africa AfricaPost97ASNs Southern Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Southern Africa AfricaPost97ASNs Northern Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Northern Africa AfricaPost97ASNs Middle Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Middle Africa AfricaPost97ASNs Eastern Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Eastern Africa Africa
Investigation 1: new networks since 1997
Pre-1997 “Legacy ASes” very often true incumbents, i.e., PSTNs, facilities-based access network owners
Investigation 1: new networks since 1997, detail
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Post97ASNs Northern America NorteLegacyASNs Northern America NortePost97ASNs Polynesia IslandsLegacyASNs Polynesia IslandsPost97ASNs Micronesia IslandsLegacyASNs Micronesia IslandsPost97ASNs Melanesia IslandsLegacyASNs Melanesia IslandsPost97ASNs Caribbean IslandsLegacyASNs Caribbean IslandsPost97ASNs Western Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Western Europe EuropePost97ASNs Southern Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Southern Europe EuropePost97ASNs Northern Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Northern Europe EuropePost97ASNs Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Europe EuropePost97ASNs Eastern Europe EuropeLegacyASNs Eastern Europe EuropePost97ASNs Western Asia AsiaLegacyASNs Western Asia AsiaPost97ASNs South-eastern Asia AsiaLegacyASNs South-eastern Asia AsiaPost97ASNs South-central Asia AsiaLegacyASNs South-central Asia AsiaPost97ASNs Eastern Asia AsiaLegacyASNs Eastern Asia AsiaPost97ASNs Asia AsiaLegacyASNs Asia AsiaPost97ASNs Australia and New Zealand ANZUSLegacyASNs Australia and New Zealand ANZUSPost97ASNs South America AmericasLegacyASNs South America AmericasPost97ASNs Central America AmericasLegacyASNs Central America AmericasPost97ASNs Western Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Western Africa AfricaPost97ASNs Southern Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Southern Africa AfricaPost97ASNs Northern Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Northern Africa AfricaPost97ASNs Middle Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Middle Africa AfricaPost97ASNs Eastern Africa AfricaLegacyASNs Eastern Africa Africa
Investigation 1: new networks since 1997, Asia
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Post97ASNs Polynesia Islands
LegacyASNs Polynesia Islands
Post97ASNs Micronesia Islands
LegacyASNs Micronesia Islands
Post97ASNs Melanesia Islands
LegacyASNs Melanesia Islands
Post97ASNs Western Asia Asia
LegacyASNs Western Asia Asia
Post97ASNs South-eastern Asia Asia
LegacyASNs South-eastern Asia Asia
Post97ASNs South-central Asia Asia
LegacyASNs South-central Asia Asia
Post97ASNs Eastern Asia Asia
LegacyASNs Eastern Asia Asia
Post97ASNs Asia Asia
LegacyASNs Asia Asia
Post97ASNs Australia and New ZealandANZUS
LegacyASNs Australia and New ZealandANZUS
Do strong incumbents impact overall national Internet production rates?
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
PA
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IND
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MA
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KO
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IND
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JA
PA
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SIN
GA
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MA
CA
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AU
ST
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LIA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
grow%
new%
....still highly speculative
Proliferation of ASes as consequence/indicator of efficient domestic wholesale capacity market structure
Growth in Internet production without corresponding proliferation of ASNs may be indicative of inefficient infrastructure bottlenecks
Digital Divide likely to close farthest/fastest where production of users, uses, usage straddles all segments
Implications?
....less speculative I think
Operationally informed analysis/comparison of physical and logical network elements -- essential to engagement with many current regional, global policy challenges...
Operationally informed historical analysis of Internet routing table, coupled with natural language interpretation of Internet production -- a useful way to talk past the Bellhead-Nethead divide...
Implications?
Questions...thanks!
!
"
#
$
%
&
'
(
Tom Vest
Research Program Manager
Packet Clearing House
http://www.pch.net
Special Thanks to:
APNIC!
Bill Woodcock
Randy Bush
Geoff Huston
Jonathan Aronson
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