Infrastructure and Resilient SpatialDevelopment

Zeynep Elburz

Dokuz Eylul UniversityUrban and Regional Planning Department

İzmir / Turkey

November 16, 2018

CITIES4PEOPLE:INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYTICS FOR NEXT-GEN CITIES

What is resilience?

Many different fields e.g. ecology, psychology, economics,disaster studies, have studied the concept of resilience.

Resilience is a popular term!

…due to the general sense of insecurity anduncertainty afflicting people across the world(Christopherson et al., 2010)

WithstandAdapt

Respond2

What is resilience?

Spatial Economic Resilience

• is the ability of a region to anticipate, prepare for, respondto and recover from a disturbance (Foster, 2007)

• is the capacity of a regional economy to withstand changeor to retain its core functions despite external upheaval(Davies, 2011)

• is the inherent ability and adaptive response that enablesfirms and regions to avoid maximum potential losses (Roseand Liao, 2005)

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How to measure resilience?

The factors that underlie resilience create difficulties in findingthe right indicators for its measurement (Kakderi and Tasopoulou2017)

• The Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) with 12 resiliencefactors (Foster, 2007)

• Rise/decline of employment growth rates (Lagravinese, 2015)

• Regional GDP (Martin, 2012)

• The Resilience Employment index (REI) (Martin, 2012)

• Unemployment increases (Champion and Townsend, 2012)

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How to measure resilience?

Modica and Reggiani (2015) categorizes six macro indicator groups ofresilience

1. Socio-economic characteristics and financial resource

2. Institutional capacity

3. Infrastructure

4. Community capacity

5. Innovaiton and technology

6. Natural environment

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Resilience and Infrastructure

Infrastructure is an important aspect of resilience since the functions ina spatial economic system are all highly dependent on the infrastructurenetworks (Percoco 2004).

Accessibility may propagate external shocks, but may also beinstrumental in achieving a faster recovery or return to the originalequilibrium (Östh et al., 2018).

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Aim of the study

The present study aims to explore economicresilience of Turkish regions by emphasizing therole of increased accessibility/connectivitybetween regions.

Geographical level: 26 NUTS regionsTime period: 2009-2015

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Economic Crises (Turkey)

GDP per capita growth

Employment growth

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-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Economic Crises (Turkey)

Regional employment growth 9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

İstanbul Batı Marmara Ege

Doğu Marmara Batı Anadolu Akdeniz

Orta Anadolu Batı Karadeniz Doğu Karadeniz

Kuzey Doğu Anadolu Orta Doğu Anadolu Güney Doğu Anadolu

Different regions react very differently to recessionary shocks

Infrastructure

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Transportation infrastructure investment and total road length changes in Turkey

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

62000

62500

63000

63500

64000

64500

65000

65500

66000

66500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

x 10

0000

transportation infrastructure investment (TL) length of the roads (km)

Infrastructure

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Diveded road network 2002-2012

Infrastructure

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Motorway network (2016)

Motorway network targets (2023)

Infrastructure

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High speed rail network

Infrastructure

As expected, building new road network and/or extension of theexisting ones cause a reduction of the travel times betweenregions.

To capture the impacts of recently built-up roads or extensionthe existing ones on connectivity/accessibility we calculate theannual changes in the real distance between regions.

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Infrastructure

We use network analysis to calculate the distances in minutes betweenthe regions based on 3 different road categories with different speedlimits each.

We measure the quickest route from each origin region to destinationregion and produce distance matrix by using OD cost matrix analysisextension of network analysis from ArcGIS

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Type of roads Speed Limit (km/h)Motorways 120State highways 110Provincial roads 90

State highways (black), provincial roads (blue) and motorways (red) in 2004 and 2014

Infrastructure

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Infrastructure

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Reduction of travel time between 2004 and 2014

Diversity

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Manufacturing sector specialization and diversity index

Resilient regions require diversity

Questions to answer

• How accessibility/connectivity and resilience are related?

• Can accessibility/connectivity be an instrument for creatingmore resilient regions?

• How resilient and diversity are related?

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Thank you for your attention…

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