Informal stakeholder meeting_kenya_ppt-victor
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Transcript of Informal stakeholder meeting_kenya_ppt-victor
- 1.
- 2.
- Context and Study Objectives
- Exploring Agritrade-Rural Livelihoods-Food Security Linkages
- How Regional and International Agritrade Impact Rural Livelihoods and Food Security
- Policy, Institutional Frameworks and Interplay of Stakeholders
- Conclusions and Recommendations
- 3.
- Worlds malnourished increased from over 800 million in 2008 to 923 million in 2009 (FAO, 2009)
- Kenya ranks 29 among the countries with worlds poorest food security
- Effects partly due to recent droughts and rising food prices as well as rising poverty
- Rising food poverty: expenditure is about 60 percent of poor households incomes
- 70 percent of the Kenyan population are market-dependent and net buyers of food
- 4.
- dependence on rain fed agriculture has seen output from maize fall from a surplus of 9 million bags in 2006 to a deficit of 35 million bags at present.
- Kenya thus relies on imports and Trade is important for stabilizing the national food supplies and food prices.
- However trade is affected by tariffs, NTBs and subsidies.
- 5.
- After Government Withdrew agricultural support measures following liberalization:
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- food security started worsening by early 90s
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- By 2003, the country relied more on imports to fill food deficits;
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- About 25% of value of agric exports and 14% of the total exports were now being diverted to import food .
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- Food imports have not necessarily helped the poor since at household level (mainly in the rural and among the poor in towns and urban centers) food insecurity has increased;
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- incomes of the poor have plummeted, and they cant sufficiently buy the imported food from the market
- 6. Some Stylized Facts about Kenya Agritrade, Poverty and Food
Security
- Trade deficit has been widening
- Value of exports increased by 14% in last 2yrs but that of imports grew faster and at a higher rate (16%)
- Poverty still remains high and overlaps largely with rural areas
- Where 67% of pop lives, affecting largely small-scale farmers
- 7. Poverty Rates Selected Years (1992-2007)
- With such statistics in poverty, there is also a markedly increase in food insecurity in the past few years
- Food Security definitions
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- secure access by all people at all times to enough food for a healthy, active life World Bank (1996). This implies
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- Availability of enough food for an active healthy life;
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- access to this food; and
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- the guarantee of access to it at any time [Christiaensen 1995]
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- Availability is thro local food prod or imports ; access is thro ability to purchase enough quantity of quality food ( income and food price ) and this to be so on a sustainable basis
- 8.
- Identify linkages between trade, rural livelihoods and food security more specifically within the Kenyan context.
- Determine magnitude and composition of regional trade in Agriculture (both formal and informal) and inherent effects on rural livelihoods and food security.
- Carry out a review of national policies related to agriculture food security, trade, and regional integration
- 9.
- Literature review to establish the Linkages between Trade, Livelihoods and food security.
- Secondary data used for trend analysis
- Primary data FGDs with farmer organizations.
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- Key Informants
- Review of Policies, Legal and Regulatory Frameworks
- 10.
- Dependence on Agriculture for Livelihoods
- In the rural the poor are linked to agriculture as
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- farmers, laborers, transporters, marketers and processors of produce and as suppliers of non-agricultural services to households whose income is principally agriculture-derived
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- food purchase is their main consumption expenditure
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- In the rural towns and large cities
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- They engage in the processing and distribution of agricultural products from the hinterland.
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- They buy most of their food needs in addition to supplies from rural relatives, and
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- So to the extent that trade affects agriculture then it affects rural livelihood as well
- 11.
- Agricultural trade and Rural Livelihoods (II)
- Thus if incomes from agric trade are rewarding then we expect:
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- Rural households incomes to increase hence increased demand for food and other consumer goods,
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- creation of non-farm jobs and employment diversification, especially in small towns close to agricultural production areas
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- surplus rural labor is absorbed, raises demand for agricultural produce and again boosts agricultural productivity and rural incomes
- Thus, impact on rural livelihood comes through
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- falling real food prices,
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- creation of employment,
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- higher real wages, and
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- rising incomes fro small farm households
- 12.
- Agricultural trade and Rural Livelihoods (III)
- Trade affects rural livelihoods through importation and exportation and policies thereof
- Domestic
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- Production, with main determinant being price farmers receive and boost government revenue which can also be ploughed back through support
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- Policies (like subsidies) that dampen world prices create uncompetitiveness of products produced by countries who cannot afford subsidies
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- Reduce incentive to invest in agricultural infrastructure, agricultural research and development,
- 13.
- Agricultural trade and Rural Livelihoods (III)
- International
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- Countries can produce and export based on their factor endowments
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- Use income from exports to import national food requirements
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- Ability to import food depend on incomes generated from imports and world price of food
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- Thus Export competitiveness and price matter
- 14.
- Linkages between agricultural trade and rural livelihoods therefore occur in three phases according to Evans 1990:
- 1. rural households earn higher incomes from production of agricultural goods for non-local markets, and increase their demand for consumer goods
- 2. this leads to the creation of non-farm jobs and employment diversification, especially in small towns close to agricultural production areas
- 3. which in turn absorbs surplus rural labor, raises demand for agricultural produce and again boosts agricultural productivity and rural incomes (Evans, 1990).
- 15.
- Trade Liberalization such as SAPs many sectors became uncompetitive.
- International trade policies such as
- Subsidies -dampened world prices, leading to collapse of many agricultural sectors in developing countries
- NTBs such as standards have also acted as barriers for developing country exporters.
- Consequently, production declined and this led to a drop in employment for farmers and dependency on imported food leading to major changes in food prices and worsening the food security and livelihoods situation.
- 16.
- Poverty rates in Kenya are 46.1 percent. Rural poverty is higher than the national average and stands at 49.1%.
- Rural poverty mostly associated with agriculture and land
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- Highest in ASALs in Eastern and North-eastern due to poor climatic conditions
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- High potential areas e.g Central are over exploited due to population pressure
- Poverty is highly correlated with food security i.e high poverty areas are the most food insecure Asals and Coast
- Food security worsened since 1990s and by 2003 imports were 14 percent of total value of imports and 25 percent of agricultural imports.
- 17.
- Statistics show that only 47 percent of the entire Kenyan population is food secure.
- Hence Kenyas dependency on food Aid has continued to rise over the years and is observed to have high peaks in 1993, 2001 and in 2007
- Currently WFP is feeding a total of 3.6 million people in 25 districts and 535,000 children are given school meals through the school feeding program
- Food imports especially cereals have also increased deficits last year was 95,000MT met through imports
- Most imports come from the region Uganda and Tanzania 108,155 MT and 56,900 respectively
- 18.
- More than 70 percent of Kenyas Population live in rural areas
- Agriculture and pastoralism the mainstay of the Kenyan Rural economy
- An average of 68% rural household income is derived from off-farm incomes, and around 32% comes from own production (crops and livestock products), with maize and wheat being the leading sources of crop income.
- Incomes from Agriculture alone are not sufficient to meet food needs especially in ASALs hence purchase of food is very common.
- 19.
- Exports
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- dominated by the agricultural sector- horticulture 22%; tea 17.9%, others eg petroleum and manufactured exports about 45 percent of exports.
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- Main destinations EU 22 %; and Africa 60 Percent
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- Exports to the COMESA and EAC region consist of manufactured products such as Fermented tea (35%), Cement (4.5%), Cigarettes (4.2%) amongst others
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- Exports to Africa increased 26% in the past 10 years
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- Exports to Africa facilitated by EAC and COMESA customs union
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- - Main barriers to Exports include NTBs, poor infrastructure and delays at various border points
- 20.
- Imports
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- Kenyas imports mainly consist of petroleum products (14 percent of total imports); crude petroleum (9 percent); industrial machinery (11 percent); and motor vehicles (6.4 percent).
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- Main source of Kenyas imports include Middle and Far East, UAE and EU countries including South Africa.
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- Kenya also imports food specifically maize from EAC and COMESA countries to meet shortages
- 21.
- an important aspect of cross-border trade among small traders along Kenya Uganda and Kenya-Tanzania borders
- Provides a source of income for traders and also provides food improved access to food.
- Occurs due to restrictive policies and NTBs Magnitude is hard to measure
- Involves small but significant amounts of food products moved over short distances using as bicycles, and boats
- Goods entering Kenya included, maize, beans, bananas, fresh fruits and vegetables-tomatoes, onions avocados, pineapples and Textiles
- Goods leaving Kenya included counterfeit batteries, cigarettes, detergents, beverages, sugar, mattresses and other household goods
- 22.
- Reasons for illicit trade:
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- delays at the border which in some cases along Busia-Malaba border was up to 7 hours
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- High Administrative costs -numerous requirements such as trade licenses business and road license, phyto-sanitary certificates
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- Corruption and bribery at police checkpoints
- Magnitude is hard to measure
- Positive aspects#
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- Improve access to food#
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- drives down prices of goods# - a plus for consumers but not producers
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- Provides incomes and improves livelihoods for traders#
- 23.
- Continued high prices of food due to:
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- a) sustained high level of effective demand in the country, especially in main urban centers,
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- b) accelerated appreciation of the Kenyan currency in recent years
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- c) the impacts of increased internal production costs, given the general cost of inputs and other production outlays, and
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- d) the overall rise in inflation, - rising to 31.5 percent in May and 29.4 percent in June 2008,
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- e) Overwhelming dependence on maize as the key staple for the majority of the population.
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- f) drought and poor weather conditions;
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- g) rising food prices which is a global phenomenon as well as
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- h) The post-election violence which occurred in 2008 January
- 24.
- Increased imports cheap food imports acting as a dis-incentive for producers although this has improved access to food
- On one hand loss of incomes for producers and labourers but on the other hand creation of employment and incomes for traders
- Dependency on food aid has also acted as a dis-incentive for production although it has provided much needed food for millions of people in extreme food insecurity
- 25.
- Trade liberalization under SAPs and various trade agreements such as EAC and COMESA have led to openness and reduction of tariffs
- Even after the trade regime was liberalized cheap food imports have suppressed domestic food prices and therefore food production
- Food security policy has laid much emphasis on Maize sector ignoring other sectors which could raise incomes of rural folk#
- Food Security policy not coherent with trade policy
- 26.
- Food Security#
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- Kenya Food Security Meeting & - Advisory role
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- Kenya Food Steering Group Policy and administrative
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- NCPB strategic grain reserve
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- Ministries and Government departments MoT, MOA
- Institutions for food security not coherent with those of Trade
- Stakeholders: Farmers and Small scale traders; Millers and Transporters; ODAs and NGOs;
- 27.
- Need for an equitable global environment for trade; removal of subsidies.
- Taking care of regional NTBs to enhance regional trade
- Most of what needs to be done is mainly at National level
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- Need for a clear and comprehensive trade policy that takes into account food security issues
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- Addressing infrastructural bottlenecks and redistributive mechanisms from surplus to deficit areas.
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- Need for a comprehensive institutional framework to enable private sector participation in the process as well as consolidation of information for future referencing.