Influence of Interest Rates Regimes on Deposit Money · PDF fileif interest rate...
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© 2013 Research Academy of Social Sciences http://www.rassweb.com 52
International Journal of Empirical Finance
Vol. 1, No. 3, 2013, 52-64
Influence of Interest Rates Regimes on Deposit Money Banks’ Credit
in Nigeria: An Econometric Assessment
Nwakanma Prince Chinaecherem1, Ifeanyi Mgbataogu
2
Abstract
The paper examines the impact of interest rates reform on the financial intermediation function of the
commercial banks in Nigeria using the dummy variables approach to Chow test for Structural Stability. The co-integration and error correction model were also used to capture both the long-run and short-run dynamics
of the variables used in the model. The empirical results reveal that though the intermediation function of the
commercial banks has significantly improved as a result of the deregulation of the interest rate, it has not translated into improved standard of living of the populace as the incidence of poverty is still on the increase.
Also, the results show that lending rates do not influence demand for domestic credits in Nigeria, unlike
deposit rates which proved to be a major determinant for amount of credits extended by the commercial
banks. We conclude that though, interest rates deregulation has improved credit extension to the domestic economy, the link between interest rates, domestic credit extension and economic growth is not automatic.
Hence, the need for partial deregulation of interest rates that will ensure concessionary interest rates to the
productive sector of the economy. Commercial banks are also advised to device better strategies that will boost their credit mobilization ability to ensure their profitability and sustain credit extension to the
productive sector of the economy.
1. Introduction
Deposit money banks tend to wield tremendous influence on every nation’s financial landscape. This makes them the primary focus of the monetary authorities in the task of managing the country’s economy. As
financial intermediaries they serve as a conduit through which funds are drawn from surplus economic
entities for allocation to deficit economic units. The essence of financial intermediation is to facilitate the process of economic growth and its concomitant economic development, all things being equal. A critical
factor in the act of financial intermediation is interest rate, which is the compensation borrowers pay to
lenders for making use of their money for a period of time after which the initial amount they borrowed is
returned to the lender. The attainment of efficient financial intermediation is therefore the primary objective of monetary authorities both in developed and emerging economies.
Efficient financial intermediation ensures the optimal mobilization and allocation of funds in the
economy. This enhances productivity and accelerates the pace of economic growth and development. Thus, the banking sector which is the core of the financial system is a major factor in determination of interest
rates. It is generally known that interest rates exhibit a term structure, which is to say that the interest rate
payable on a loan is, in most cases, predicated on its tenure. It is therefore characteristic of an efficient financial system to channel funds to their most productive uses. Since by definition long-term investments
are more productive than short-term investments it is expected that interest rates on short-term funds should
lag behind the rates on long-term funds needed for developmental activities. If however, interest rates in the money markets are upward bound the tendency is for those of the capital markets to drift even higher with
the unfavourable consequence of discouraging investment.
1 Senior Lecturer, University of Port Harcourt, Choba. 2 Research Assistant, University of Port Harcourt. Choba.
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Given the quest for the rapid economic growth and development of Nigeria the Central Bank of Nigeria was in addition to its traditional functions required to engineer the overall economic development of the
country. Consequently, in consonance with the then prevailing era of financial regulation the nation through
its central bank conformed to the general tendency towards financial regulation involving administrative
allocation of credit and fixing of interest rates. This mode of credit allocation and interest rate determination is what McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) in their separate seminal papers referred to as financial
repression. This is characteristic of a country which keeps its deposit and lending nominal interest rates at
low levels relative to inflation.
Severe macroeconomic and financial disequilibrium prevalent in the early 1980’s coerced the Nigerian
state to initiate series of economic and financial policy reforms beginning with the Structural Adjustment
Programme (SAP) in 1986, a policy instrument designed to free the economy from the shackles of regulation and launch it on the path of deregulation. This would mark the entry of Nigeria into the league of emerging
markets. One of the foremost markets to be deregulated was the foreign exchange market, which commenced
on a gradual note whereby the exchange rate of the naira was partially determined by the forces of supply and demand. This was followed by interest rate deregulation in August 1987, (Ikhide and Alawode, 2001).
As a matter of fact, interest rate reform, which was geared towards financial sector liberalization was
cardinally designed to instill efficiency in the financial sector and coextensively lead to its deepening, Obamuyi (2009). This was also to rebuild what was allegedly referred to as the “tunnel-like” structure of
interest rate with its propensity to discourage savings and retard growth because of the perceived nexus
between savings, investment and economic growth, Ojo(1976). The problem which this study addresses is: if interest rate liberalization policy is indeed a panacea for enhancing financial intermediation, has the policy
had any positive influence on the potentials of the banking sector to increase resource allocation to the
domestic private sector so as to enable it drive the economy towards the desired level of economic growth
and development?
Banks allocate credit to the productive sectors in the form of loans and advances. The ability of banks to
mobilize funds underscores their capacity to allocate those funds to various uses in the economy. This
lending function ensures that developmental projects like industrial, housing, commercial and agricultural activities in the economy are well funded. In this way, the lending function of banks can be said to be
directly related to the development of the economy.
This study aims to investigate the relationship between interest rates reform policy and the level of financial intermediation in Nigeria. This is important because the idea behind the reform policies was for
interest rates to act as a kind of incentive by which sufficient deposits will be mobilized for onward lending
to deserving borrowers within the domestic economy. In the process the level of investment will increase and consequently the level of economic growth and development of the country. This paper is an attempt to shed
more light on interest rate policy and its implications for the lending operations of deposit money banks. It is
hoped that the country’s policy makers would as a result gain more insight into the vital role of interest rates on credit to the economy.
2. Literature Review and theoretical framework
The neoclassical growth model and the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis x-rayed the association between
interest rates and economic growth. McKinnon-Shaw (1973) argued that financial repression reduces real rate of growth. Financial repression according to the authors refers to indiscriminate distortions of financial
prices including interest rates. In McKinnon-Shaw model, an investment function responds negatively to the
effective real loan rate of interest and positively to the growth rate. Those that follow this school of thought
expect financial liberalization to exert a positive effect on the rate of economic growth in both the short and medium runs.
Prior to McKinnon-Shaw model, the Fisher (1930) hypothesis suggests that expected inflation is the main determinant of interest rates as the inflation rate increases by one percent, the rate of interest increases
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by one percent. This suggests that expected interest rates changes in proportion to the changing expected inflation, or expected real interest rates are invariant to the expected inflation. Mundell (1963) concluded that
nominal interest rate with expected inflation rate do not have one for one adjustable relations. It is the
Mundell-Tobin effect that nominal interest rates would rise less than one-for-one with inflation because in
response to inflation the public would hold less in money balances and more in other assets, which would drive interest rates down.
Emery (1971) in a paper presentation titled “the use of interest rate policies as a stimulus to economic growth”, submitted that government of few less developed countries were beginning to view interest rate
policy as one of their major discretionary policy variables – along with monetary and fiscal policy - in their
efforts to stimulate economic growth and – when appropriate – to reduce inflationary pressure. According to
him “this change in attitude has been caused in part by the experience of Taiwan, Korea and Indonesia following the introduction of substantial change in the interest rate structure, particularly for time and
savings deposits”.
Omole and Falokun (1999) analyzed empirically the linkages among and leverage ratios (debt-to-equity ratio and debt-to-capital ratio) of selected firms, their investment, turnover and profits. The result of the study
showed a link between interest rates and corporate financing strategies and profitability of firms. It also
revealed that interest rate liberalization has a link with growth of the equity market but on sector by sector analysis it does not seem to have the same effect on all investigated quoted companies.
Oosterbaan et al (2000) estimated the relationship between the annual rate of economic growth and the
real rate of interest. The study shows the effect of a rising real interest rate on growth and claimed that growth is maximized when the real rate of interest lies within the normal range of say -5 to 15 per cent. De
Gregorio and Guidotti (1995) cited in Oosterbaan et al (2000) suggest that the relationship between real
interest rates and economic growth might resemble an inverted U-curve - very low (and negative) real interest rates tend to cause financial disintermediation and hence reduce growth. However, the World Bank
reports, cited in Oosterbaan et al (2000) show a positive and significant cross-section relationship between
average growth and real interest rates over the period 1965 to 1985.
Adebiyi and Babatope-Obasa (2004) investigated the impact of interest rates and other macroeconomic factors on manufacturing performance in Nigeria using co-integration and an error correction mechanism
(ECM) technique with annual time series covering the period between 1970 and 2002. The study revealed that interest rate spread and government deficit financing have negative impact on the growth of
manufacturing sub-sector in Nigeria. Again, the liberalization of the economy has promoted manufacturing
growth during the period covered by the study.
Albu (2006) used two partial models to investigate the impact of investment on GDP growth rate and the relationship between interest rate and investment in the case of Romanian economy. He found that the
behavior of the national economic system and the interest rate-investment-economic growth relationships
tend to converge to those demonstrated in a normal economy.
Amidu (2006) examined whether bank lending is constrained by monetary policy in Ghana. The study
revealed that Ghanaian banks’ lending behaviors are affected significantly by the country’s economic activities and changes in money supply, supporting previous studies that the Ghanaian Central Bank’s prime
rate and inflation rate negatively but statistically insignificantly affect bank lending.
Shelile (2006) examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread.
Results of the study established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during
the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate
model. In the periods of financial market liberalization and interest rates deregulation, the term structure was to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa.
Ologunde et al (2006) in a study titled “Stock Market Capitalization and Interest Rate in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis”, examined the relationship between stock market capitalization rate and interest rate
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55
from 1981 to 2000. The result revealed that the prevailing interest rate exerted positive influence on stock market capitalization rate. Government development stock rate exerted negative influence on stock market
capitalization rate and prevailing interest rate exerted negative influence on government development stock
rate during the period of the study.
Nnamdi (2007) attempted to evaluate the dynamic impacts and relationships between deposit structure, lending rates and risk assets created in the Nigerian banking system. The results indicated a significant
multiple correlation between risk assets and a combination of the independent variables; savings deposit, time deposit, demand deposits and lending rates. However, the multiple regression technique shows only the
coefficient of savings deposit as significant among the independent variables with demand deposit exhibiting
a negative relationship and insignificant impact on risk assets. The results radically departed from the
traditional “Least cost” approach to deposit marketing vis-à-vis risk asset funding.
Obamuyi (2009) investigated the relationship between interest rates and economic growth in Nigeria,
using time series analysis and annual data from 1970 to 2006. The co-integration and error correction were
used to capture both the long-run and short-run dynamics of the variables in the model. The results indicated that real lending rates have significant effect on economic growth. There also existed a unique long-run
relationship between economic growth and its determinants, including interest rates. Therefore, the results
imply that the behavior of interest rate is important for economic growth in view of the relationships between interest rates and investment and investment and economic growth.
Alao (2010) in a study “Interest Rates Determination in Nigeria: An Econometric X-ray ”, x-rayed and
investigated the Nigerian financial sector which in his words ‘assumes interest rates to be a combination of a domestic rate in autarky and the uncovered interest parity rate in a completely open economy’. The study
employed Interest Rate Spreads (IRS) as the dependent variable and domestic interest rate which is the
difference between average interest rate earned on interest earning assets (loans) and average interest rate paid on deposits. The investigation captured both the long run and the short run dynamics of domestic
interest rate behavior by estimating an error correction model (ECM) using the Engle-Granger methodology
with discovery of an appropriate negative ECM term which is significant and less than one. Inflation rate
adjustment to the long-run equilibrium is the fastest while exchange rate adjustment towards equilibrium is the slowest. Econometric analysis notwithstanding suggested that as the Nigerian financial sector integrates
more with global markets, returns on foreign assets will play a significant role in the determination of
domestic interest rates.
Amassoma et al (2011) examined the nexus of interest rate deregulation, lending rate and agricultural
productivity in Nigeria by employing co-integration and error correction techniques on annual data spanning
1986 to 2009. The findings showed that interest rate deregulation has a positive and significant effect on agricultural productivity.
Olokoyo (2011) examined the determinants of commercial banks’ lending behavior in Nigeria. From her
findings, commercial banks’ deposits have the greatest impact on their lending behavior.
3. Theoretical Framework
Loan Pricing Theory
Banks cannot always set high interest rates, e.g. trying to earn maximum interest income. Banks should consider the problems of adverse selection and moral hazard since it is very difficult to forecast the borrower
type at the start of the banking relationship (Stiglitz and Weiss, 1981). If banks set interest rates too high,
they may induce adverse selection problems because high-risk borrowers are willing to accept these high rates. Once these borrowers receive the loans, they may develop moral hazard behaviour or so called
borrower moral hazard since they are likely to take on highly risky projects or investments (Chodechai,
2004). From the reasoning of Stiglitz and Weiss, it is usual that in some cases we may not find that the
interest rate set by banks is commensurate with the risk of the borrowers.
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Firm Characteristics Theories
These theories predict that the number of borrowing relationships will be decreasing for small, high-
quality, informationally opaque and constraint firms, all other things been equal. (Godlewski & Ziane, 2008)
Theory of Multiple-Lending
It is found in literature that banks should be less inclined to share lending (loan syndication) in the
presence of well developed equity markets and after a process consolidation. Both outside equity and mergers and acquisitions increase banks’ lending capacities, thus reducing their need of greater
diversification and monitoring through share lending. (Carletti et al, 2006; Ongene & Smith, 2000; Karceski
et al, 2004; Degryse et al, 2004). This theory has a great implication for banks in Nigeria in the light of the
recent 2005 consolidation exercise in the industry.
Hold-up and Soft-Budget-Constraint Theories
Banks choice of multiple-bank lending is in terms of two inefficiencies affecting exclusive bank-firm relationships, namely the hold-up and the soft-budget-constraint problems.1 According to the hold-up
literature, sharing lending avoids the expropriation of informational rents. This improves firms’ incentives to
make proper investment choices and in turn it increases banks’ profits (Von Thadden, 2004; Padilla and Pagano, 1997). As for the soft-budget-constraint problem, multiple-bank lending enables banks not to extend
further inefficient credit, thus reducing firms’ strategic defaults. Both of these theories consider multiple-
bank lending as a way for banks to commit towards entrepreneurs and improve their incentives. None of
them, however, addresses how multiple-bank lending affects banks’ incentives to monitor, and thus can explain the apparent discrepancy between the widespread use of multiple-bank lending and the importance of
bank monitoring. But according to Carletti et al (2006), when one considers explicitly banks’ incentives to
monitor, multiple-bank lending may become an optimal way for banks with limited lending capacities to commit to higher monitoring levels. Despite involving free-riding and duplication of efforts, sharing lending
allows banks to expand the number of loans and achieve greater diversification. This mitigates the agency
problem between banks and depositors, and it improves banks’ monitoring incentives. Thus, differently from the classical theory of banks as delegated monitors, their paper suggested that multiple-bank lending may
positively affect overall monitoring and increase firms’ future profitability.
The Signalling Arguments
The signalling argument states that good companies should provide more collateral so that they can
signal to the banks that they are less risky type borrowers and then they are charged lower interest rates.
Meanwhile, the reverse signaling argument states that banks only require collateral and or covenants for relatively risky firms that also pay higher interest rates (Chodechai, 2004; Ewert and Schenk, 1998).
Credit Market Theory
A model of the neoclassical credit market postulates that the terms of credits clear the market. If collateral and other restrictions (covenants) remain constant, the interest rate is the only price mechanism.
With an increasing demand for credit and a given customer supply, the interest rate rises, and vice versa. It is
thus believed that the higher the failure risk of the borrower, the higher the interest premium (Ewert et al, 2000).
Point of Deviation
This study is an improvement on other studies for the following reasons. Firstly, while most of the
studies reviewed focused more on the relationship between interest rates and Gross Domestic Product – as a
measure of economic growth, it recognizes the fact that the level of financial accommodation function of the banking system is a major determinant of economic growth and that without favorable interest rates policy
measure, the desired level of financial accommodation for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria might
remain a mirage. Secondly, it could be conjectured from the works reviewed in the previous section that the
lending of commercial banks in Nigeria is determined by some factors both at the micro and macro level. Thus, recognizing the fact that interest rates policy is a major determinant of commercial banks’ lending
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behavior at the macro level, we disaggregate the micro and macro determinants, to ascertain the impact government interest rates policy reform on the lending behavior (financial intermediation) of Nigerian
commercial banks. Thirdly, the study period covers 1970 to 2000, to capture specifically the activities of the
commercial banks in the country. This is in recognition of the fact that the universal banking system which
enlarges the scope of the commercial banks to include both merchant banking and other banking and non banking activities took effect from 2001 in Nigeria. Further, the study captures only the operations of the
commercial banks to give credence and possible policy directions to the monetary authority in its bid to
restore commercial banking bearing in mind that it is the most conventional banking that serve the majority of the populace and also a dominant banking institutions in Nigeria.
4. Methodology
The paper made use of both descriptive and econometric analyses. The descriptive approach of trend
analysis was used to determine the relationship between interest rates and level of credits extended by the deposit money banks. Again, in order to achieve the purpose of the study as stated above, a dummy variables
approach to Chow test is adopted. According to Brooks (2008), in the case of the Chow test, the unrestricted
regression would contain dummy variables for the intercept and for all of the slope coefficients. Thus, the model of this study is presented as:
= ------------- (1)
In the model above, Dt = 0 for t in Period 1 and 1 Period 2. In other words, Dt takes the value zero for
the observation during the regulated interest rate period and one during the deregulated period. Equation 1
above can be reduced thus;
= ---- (2)
Where; is the Aggregate Domestic Credit extended by the Commercial Banks during the study
period, represent weighted average lending rates, weighted average deposit rates, minimum rediscount rate (monetary policy rate), exchange rate Nigerian Naira with US Dollar,
inflation rate respectively. is dummy variable to capture the change in financial policy from regulated to
deregulated periods of interest rate policy. represents the constant term, is a white noise disturbance term
and are parameters to be estimated.
The a priori expectation is summarized as follows:
There is no exact a priori sign for the coefficient on exchange rate and inflation. Theoretical models
suggest that any sign is possible. Cukierman and Hercowitz (1989) in Amidu (2006) present a model where
loan demand is positively related to inflation. In their model, firms make use of both money and bank loans to pay for working capital. High inflation penalizes money holdings by firms and makes bank loans more
attractive. By contrast, De Gregorio and Sturzenegger (1997) also in Amidu (2006) develop a model where
the demand for bank credit by firms reduces with inflation because, in their model, higher inflation is related to lower productivity levels, which, in turn, reduces the demand for labor; Huybens and Smith (1999) in
Amidu (2006) show that both outcomes are actually possible depending on the nature of the steady-state
equilibrium in the economy.
Before our estimation, we tried to ascertain the time series properties of all the variables (both
dependent and independent) to avoid spurious regression, which arises as a result of the regression of two or
more non-stationary time series data. This means that the time series have to be de-trended before any meaningful analysis can be performed. According to Brooks (2008), if standard regression techniques are
applied to non-stationary data, the end result could be regression that “looks” good under standard measures
(significant coefficient estimates and a high R2) but which is really valueless. Thus, time series analysis was
carried out to examine the data for stationarity or non-stationarity problems using Augmented Dickey-Fuller
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58
(ADF), an extension of Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity. After this, we proceeded to Co-integration test ascertain the long-run relationship of the variables. This was done by the Johansen test to Co-integration to
confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Having established Co-
integration, an Error Correction Model (ECM) is specified to present the short run dynamics while
preserving the long-run relationship.
All the econometric analysis covered the period of 1970 to 2000. Data were obtained from the Central
Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin.
5. Trend Analysis Interest Rates Policies and Credit Extension in Nigeria
In Nigeria, the management of interest rates has involved two approaches namely: administrative and free market determination. Thus, interest rates policy in Nigeria is discussed along the separate periods of
pre-reform (1970 - 1986) and post-reform (1987 - 2000). Prior to Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), the level and structure of interest rates were administratively determined by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Both deposits and lending rates were fixed by the Bank, based on policy decisions. At that time, the major
reasons for administering interest rates were the desire to obtain social optimum in resource allocation,
promote orderly growth of the financial market, combat inflation and lesson the burden of internal debt servicing on the government, mobilize domestic financial resources through improvement in the
intermediation process.
In implementing credit policy, the sectors of the economy were categorized into; preferred, less preferred and others. The preferred category included agriculture, manufacturing and residential housing,
while the less preferred sector consisted of import and general commerce. In the group of “others” were
credit and financial institutions, government and professional sectors. These classifications enabled government to direct financial resources at concessionary rates to sectors considered as priority areas. The
concessionary rates were typically below the Minimum Rediscount Rate which was itself quite low,
averaging about 7.25 per cent between 1978 and 1986. According to Obamuyi (2009), although, the interest rates policy instruments remained fixed during this period, there were marginal increases. For instance,
weighted average deposit rate was increase from 3% in 1970 to 5% in 1979 and then to 9.5% in 1986, while
the weighted average lending rate rose from 7% to 7.5% and then to 10.5% within the same period. This
period therefore, is considered as a period of financial repression and was characterized by a highly regulated monetary policy environment in which policies of directed credits; interest rate ceiling and restrictive
monetary expansion were the rule rather than the exception (Soyibo and Olayiwola 2000 in Obamuyi 2009).
Figure 1: Interest Structure in Nigeria (1970-2000) (1 to 31 represents 1970 to 2000 respectively) wadr,walr and mrr represent Weighted Average Deposit Rates,
Weighted Average Lending Rates and Minimum Rediscount Rates respectively
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
pe
r ce
nt
wadr
walr
mrr
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In the deregulated periods, deposit and lending rates were allowed to be determined by market forces and the interest rates of course, increased as expected. However, the Minimum Rediscount Rate (MRR)
which influences other interest rates continued to be determined by the Central Bank in line with changes in
overall economic conditions. For instance, the weighted average deposit and lending rates rose from 9.5%
and 10.5% in 1986 to 14% and 17.5% respectively in 1987 as a result of interest rates deregulation in Nigeria. The MRR which was 15% in August 1987 was reduced to 12.75% in December 1987 with the
objective of stimulating investment and growth in the economy. However, inflation began to rear its ugly
head in the economy. In 1987, it jumped to 10.2% from 5.4% in 1986 and then snowballed to 38.3% in 1988. Consequently, in 1989, the MRR was raised to 18.5% in order to contain inflation. However, inflation
continues unabated. By December 1989, it stood at 40.9% and as a result, the cap on interest rate was lifted
1992 and re-imposed in 1994 when inflationary spiral could not be contained.
Figure 2: Trend Analysis of Commercial Banks’ Total Credits to the Domestic Economy (1970 - 2000) (1 to 31 represents 1970 to 2000)
The total domestic credit to the economy showed a sluggish growth as depicted in the figure 2. It rose
from #351.5 million in 1970 to #938.1 million in 1974 and to #15,701.6 in 1986. Interestingly, the
introduction of interest rate reforms in 1987 cause a marginal increase to #17,531.9 in 1987 from its level in 1986. It however, increased significantly to #144,569.6 in 1995 and continued until 1998 when it slowed to
#272,895.5 million. It finally jumped to #508,302.2 in 2000 as depicted in figure 2.
6. Econometric Analysis
As noted earlier, in estimating the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables, standard econometrics tests like stationarity test and co-integration test were conducted in order to
avoid the generation of spurious regression results. The result of stationarity (unit root) test is shown in the
table below;
0.0
100,000.0
200,000.0
300,000.0
400,000.0
500,000.0
600,000.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
tcr
tcr
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60
Table 1: ADF unit root test results
Variables ADF-statistic Order of Integration
TCR -3.739676 1(1)
WADR -5.504476 1(1)
WALR -5.125145 1(1)
MRR -6.140973 1(1) EXCR -4.767451 1(1)
INF -5.231391 1(1)
SEP -3.741657 1(1)
The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test (Table 1) show that all the variables were stationary at first difference (integrated of order one). Given the unit root properties of the variables, the
study proceeded with Co-integration test, to ascertain whether or not there is a long-run co-integrating
relationship among the variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test.
Table 2: Johansen Maximum Likelihood Co-integration test results
Likelihood 5 Percent 1 Percent Hypothesized Eigenvalue Ratio Critical Value Critical Value No. of CE(s)
0.998536 404.4149 124.24 133.57 None **
0.929991 215.1414 94.15 103.18 At most 1 ** 0.837396 138.0265 68.52 76.07 At most 2 **
0.693192 85.34988 47.21 54.46 At most 3 **
0.621483 51.08546 29.68 35.65 At most 4 **
0.537984 22.91216 15.41 20.04 At most 5 ** 0.017760 0.519656 3.76 6.65 At most 6 *(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5% (1%) significance level
L.R. test indicates 6 co-integrating equation(s) at 5% significance level
The co-integration results reported in Table 2 above show that the null hypothesis of no co-integration is
rejected. The test statistics reveal that there is co-integrating relationship between the dependent variable and
the explanatory variables. Thus, we conclude that there is a long-run relationship between the level of commercial banks’ domestic credit and its macroeconomic determinants (deposit rates; lending rates;
minimum rediscounting rate; exchange rate and inflation rates). However, we admit that deviations from this
relationship could occur due to shocks in any of the variables in the short run. Therefore, Soyibo and Olayiwola (2000) in Obamuyi (2009) suggest that the short-run interactions and the adjustment to long-run
equilibrium are important because of the policy implications. Thus, the vector Error Correction Model
(ECM) was applied to analyze the short-run dynamics.
The ECM estimation results (Table 3) reveal that the predictor variables jointly account for
approximately 59.49 percentage changes in the level of commercial banks’ domestic credits, criterion
variable. The Durbin-Watson statistics (1.56) shows no presence of auto correlation. The estimation results show that the predictor variables Weighted Average Lending Rate (WALR), Minimum Rediscount Rate
(MRR), Exchange Rate (EXCR) and Inflation Rate (INF) are not significant in explaining commercial banks
level of credit to the domestic economy. The implication is that though lending rates for instance, bears the
expected negative sign, it is not statistically significant in explaining changes in the level of credits extended by the commercial banks in Nigeria. This further affirms the notion that in most developing countries
including Nigeria, interest rates are not major determinants in extension of loan facilities by commercial
banks as most banking public are insensitive to interest rates movement. Thus, it further corroborates past
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61
studies which revealed that in Nigeria, demand for bank loans is interest inelastic as interest rates do not significantly explain variation in risk asset creation (Nnamdi 2007). Other factors such as the business
relationship between the banks and some of their influential customers cause them to overlook interest rate
movement – a major factor responsible for Banks’ distress of 1980s’. This lays credence to loan pricing
theory of interest in interest rate determination and also Chodechai (2004) in Olokoyo (2011) that relationship factors are important in lending decisions of banks in developing countries including Nigeria.
Table 3: Estimates of the Error Correction Model
Dependent Variable: D(TCR)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/20/12 Time: 16:58 Sample(adjusted): 1971 2000
Included observations: 30 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 9245.493 8036.908 1.150379 0.2623
D(WADR) -19387.35 5645.308 -3.434241 0.0024 D(WALR) -1302.530 2251.112 -0.578616 0.5687
D(MRR) 4315.375 2992.786 1.441925 0.1634
D(EXCR) 796.5063 623.1588 1.278175 0.2145 D(INF) -681.8416 489.3405 -1.393389 0.1774
D(SEP) 114842.0 48242.25 2.380528 0.0264
ECM(-1) -0.711530 0.202207 -3.518818 0.0019
R-squared 0.594855 Mean dependent var 16931.69
Adjusted R-squared 0.465945 S.D. dependent var 56453.08
S.E. of regression 41255.40 Akaike info criterion 24.31613 Sum squared resid 3.74E+10 Schwarz criterion 24.68978
Log likelihood -356.7419 F-statistic 4.614498
Durbin-Watson stat 1.558010 Prob(F-statistic) 0.002645
Further, the results of the study revealed that deposit rate is statistically significant in explaining the level of credits extended to the domestic economy by the commercial banks. The negative sign is the a priori
expectation, suggesting that deposit rate has a negative relationship with the level of credits and a major
determinant of commercial banks lending behavior. This corroborates the finding by Olokoyo (2011) that commercial banks’ deposits have the greatest impact on their lending behavior.
The dummy variable shows a positive and statistically significant relationship between deregulated
period of the economy and the level of domestic credit to the economy. Hence, the interest rates policy shift dummy with positive and statistically significant relationship suggests that the totality of the interest rates
policy reform has achieved optimal improvement in the financial accommodation ability of the commercial
banks by way of increased credits to the domestic economy.
The error correction model (ECM) is of the expected negative sign and also statistically significant at
5% level of significance. The absolute value of the coefficient of the error correction term indicates that
about 71.15% of the disequilibrium in the level of domestic credits is offset by short run adjustment in each year.
The goodness-of-fit of the estimated model indicates that the model is reasonably accurate in prediction.
However, it is important to note that there are other factors at micro level and some other factors (such as literacy level, political situation (election periods)) etc which may have impact on commercial banks
financial intermediation process especially in less developed countries.
N. P. Chinaecherem & I. Mgbataogu
62
7. Conclusion and Recommendations
A major policy thrust of interest rate reform was a boost on domestic savings and a consequent increase
in and availability of loanable funds in the banking system. The ultimate goal is to ensure that funds are
available to the productive sector of the economy to ensure a sustained economic growth and development. The paper examined the impact of this interest rates reform on intermediation process of commercial banks
in Nigeria. The results from both descriptive and econometric analyses reveal that deregulation of interest
rates in Nigeria have significantly boosted financial intermediation process of commercial banks in Nigeria by way of increased lending to the domestic economy. However, this has not translated into commensurate
level of economic development as incidence of poverty and underdevelopment in Nigeria is still
unacceptably high. The implication of this is that the link between interest rates, domestic credit extension
and economic growth is not automatic. This is explained by the fact that most commercial banks’ credits are not channeled to productive sectors of the economy like industrial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
Most of the loans are extended to borrowers for debt settlement, speculative activities in the financial
markets etc thereby stifling available funds and denying the productive sectors the needed funds for sustainable economic development.
From the foregoing, it is instructive that the monetary authority should formulate and implement interest
rates policies that will encourage channeling of funds to the productive sectors of the economy. We advise that the interest rates should not be entirely left for the market forces to determine. We recommend partial
deregulation of the interest rates, where there is concessionary interest rate for genuine entrepreneurs in the
economy. This will ensure investment-friendly environment and also guarantee profitability to genuine investors. Bank supervision arm of the Central Bank should adopt an efficient and effective policy that will
ensure close monitor of commercial banks’ borrowers. This will ensure that borrowed funds are channeled to
the productive sectors of the economy for sustainable economic development. Again, deposit rates have
proven to be a major determinant of commercial banks’ lending behavior. Thus, commercial banks should device means of attracting and retaining more deposits to improve their lending performance. Sound banking
habit should be encouraged among Nigerian through massive enlightenment campaign to educate the public.
This will cause them to be rational and sensitive to interest rate movement in this market driven economy, thereby reducing the incidence of loan default.
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