Inflation Watch: September 2011
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Transcript of Inflation Watch: September 2011
September 2011 Inflation Watch
An Eye on PricesSeptember 19, 2011
Next Release: October 19, 2011
Inflation Watch
• Inflation (price-level growth) is important for REALTORS® because it can lead to shifts in interest rate policy by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
• Generally, the FOMC lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, rates that are too low may lead to inflation. To combat inflation, the central bank increases interest rates but this policy may dampen economic growth.
• For example, the FOMC has committed to keeping rates low through 2013 to help shore up economic activity, but this commitment comes with its own set of risks.
Inflation Watch
• During the recent financial crisis, fears of deflation (price-level decline) were rampant. (Deflation caused a downward spiral of prices that destroyed the economy in the Great Depression.)
• With financial markets somewhat stable, some fear that inflation is around the corner. Stagflation, another unpleasant economic condition characterized by high unemployment and high inflation, is also a possibility.
• In stagflation, it is difficult for the central bank to raise interest rates to combat inflation due fear of further job market deterioration if demand is hurt by the increased interest rates.
September 2011 Highlights
• While economic uncertainty moderated price growth in commodities such as oil from August to September, consumer prices continue to advance.
• In spite of a second month of weakness, year over year inflation is still high among commodities. Among consumer goods, only prices for computers and peripheral equipment have declined.
• While core (those excluding food and energy) and headline consumer prices are within the bounds of the target range: 1 to 2 and 2 to 4 percent respectively, they are approaching the upper edge of the bound.
• At the same time, other consumer prices are advancing at a considerable rate. Necessities such as transportation, food at home, and hospital costs are areas of concern.
Indicator Source and definitionMonthly Change
Annual Change
Concern ?
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
BLS, Price change of consumer goods and services
0.4% 3.8% Yes
CPI Core BLS, CPI less food and energy 0.2% 2.0% MaybeCPI Housing (owners’ equivalent rent)
BLS, CPI housing component (primary residence)
0.2% 1.4% No
Producer Price Index (PPI)
BLS, Price changes domestic producers receive for their output
0.0% 6.5% Maybe
PPI Core BLS, PPI less food and energy 0.1% 2.5% NoPPI Crude Materials BLS, PPI crude / raw materials 0.2% 18.4% YesPPI Residential Construction
BLS, PPI BRES -0.4% 6.6% No
Gold WSJ, Price per ounce of gold 12.9% 45.8% YesWest Texas Crude Oil WSJ, Price per barrel of oil -11.2% 12.4% Maybe
Import PricesBLS, Trade-weighted index measures prices of imported goods & services
-0.4% 13.0% Yes
Construction Cost Index
Census, constant quality, new single family homes under construction
-0.3% 0.5% No
Consumer and Producer Price Change Overview
IndicatorChange from
previous monthChange from previous year
Concern?
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 0.4% 3.8% YesLodging away from home -1.8% 3.6% NoFood at home 0.6% 6.0% YesMeats, poultry, fish and eggs 0.4% 8.0% YesHousing fuels and utilities 0.3% 3.1% MaybeHousehold furnishings & operations
0.3% 0.1% No
Transportation 0.7% 11.7% YesMedical care 0.2% 3.2% MaybeHospital and related services 0.5% 6.2% YesEducation 0.3% 4.4% YesAirline fare 1.1% 9.5% YesPersonal Computers and peripheral equipment
-3.0% -11.9% No
Apparel 1.1% 4.2% Yes
Looking at the CPI in More Depth
CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy% Change - Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100
CPI-U: All Items% Change - Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100
1110090807Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 09/19/11
6
4
2
0
-2
CPI-U: Owners' Equivalent Rent/Primary Residence
% Change - Year to Year SA, Dec-82=100
11100908070605040302Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 09/19/11
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
PPI: Finished Goods% Change - Year to Year SA, 1982=100
PPI: Finished Goods less Food and Energy% Change - Year to Year SA, 1982=100
1110090807Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 09/19/11
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
Cash Price: Gold Bullion, London Commodity Price, PM Fix
US$/troy Oz
1110090807Source: Wall Street Journal 09/19/11
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
Domestic Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
$/Barrel
11100908070605040302Source: Wall Street Journal 09/19/11
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Import Price Index: All Imports
NSA, 2000=100
111009080706050403020109/19/11
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Houses under Construction: Fixed-Weighted Price IndexNSA, 2005=100
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States$
11100908070605040302Sources: Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors 09/19/11
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
240000
220000
200000
180000
160000
140000