Inflation Preview, Banking, Coal, Construction, PWON ......Inside the CPI basket. Based on our...

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Latest 2021F

7-DRRR (%), eop 3.75 3.75

Inflation (YoY %) 1.68 2.92

US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,050 14,085

JCI Index 6,109.2 -0.51%

Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 18,713.1

Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 7,164.2

2020F 2021F

P/E (x) 24.5 18.3

P/BV (x) 2.4 2.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.7 13.8

Div. Yield (%) 2.7 2.2

Net Gearing (%) 25.6 23.6

ROE (%) 9.8 12.7

EPS Growth (%) -29.1 34.9

EBITDA Growth (%) -12.9 14.3

Earnings Yield (%) 4.0 5.4

* Aggregate of 73 companies in MS research universe,

representing 65.1%of JCI’s market capitalization

Economic Data

Stock Market Data (27 January 2021)

Market Data Summary*

• Jan-21 Inflation Preview: Likely to Begin the Year in a Low Note • Banking Data Nov-20: Lending Remains Subdued • Coal: Proposed New Royalty Scheme for IUPK • Construction: Inauguration of Indonesia Investment Authority’s Supervisory Board • Pakuwon Jati: 4Q20 Presales - Steep Yoy Decline Despite Qoq Growth (PWON; Rp486;

Buy; TP: Rp770) • Semen Indonesia: Updates on Taiheiyo’s Acquisition of SMCB Stake (SMGR;

Rp11,575; Buy; TP: Rp11,020) • Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 27 Jan-21 • Vaccine Jan-21 Inflation Preview: Likely to Begin the Year in a Low Note

Lower annual inflation. We estimate the CPI to have a 0.36% MoM inflation in Jan-21, holding the annual figure low at 1.66% YoY (vs. 1.68% YoY in Dec-20). In general, food inflation is estimated to be the main source of inflation, followed by transportation and healthcare. Meanwhile, core inflation is forecasted to ease to 1.56% YoY from 1.60% in the corresponding period, as domestic demand has yet to show substantial recovery, especially with the latest PSBB tightening (PPKM).

Inside the CPI basket. Based on our observation, food price might have contributed 0.22 ppt to overall inflation, with chili (0.12 ppt) as the main driver. Soybean related products (such as tofu and tempeh) possibly had 0.05 ppt contribution owing to supply-side issue. Furthermore, several other sectors likely posted a mild contribution to the Jan-21 inflation, such as transportation (0.04 ppt) due to the year-end holiday and healthcare due to increasing COVID-19 cases.

Inflation to pick up entering 2H21. Reiterating our view, we think inflation will remain moderate in 1H21 before picking up in 2H21. The wet weather (La Nina) is predicted to improve the harvest season output in 1H21, which could stabilize food inflation. As a description, the last time Indonesia had a mild La-Nina in 1H17, the agriculture sector output increased by 5.1% (vs. 1H16-1H20 average at 3.3%). Afterward, the inflationary pressure is projected to kick in upon entering 2H21, following the economic recovery path and increasing money velocity. The higher confidence to consume, especially from the middle-upper class, will likely trigger the disbursement of the banking sector’s excess liquidity (for information, BI’s outstanding OMO instrument reached Rp776tn as of mid-Jan-21 vs. average at Rp371tn, which could potentially push the demand-pull inflation).

HIGHLIGHT

Equity Research | 28 January 2021 INVESTOR DIGEST

ECONOMY


Equity Research | 28 January 2021


INFLATION SUMMARY

Dec-20

MS Forecast Market Consensus

Headline inflation (%, YoY) 1.68 1.66 1.63

Headline inflation (%, MoM) 0.45 0.36 0.33

Core inflation (%, YoY) 1.60 1.56 N/A

Jan-21

Sources: CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate

FOOD PRICE OBSERVATION IN JAN-21 THE AGRICULTURE OUTPUT GROWTH WAS HIGHER DURING

MILD LA-NINA PERIOD IN 1H17

% MoM Contribution (ppt)

Rice 0.00 0.00Broiler chicken meat -0.22 (0.00)Beef 0.68 0.01Broiler chicken egg -1.59 (0.01)Red onion -10.14 (0.02)Garlic -1.22 (0.00)Red chili 3.83 0.03Chili pepper (Rawit) 45.69 0.09Cooking oil 0.67 0.01Sugar 0.36 0.00Total Foodstufs 0.11Others 0.11Total Food Group 0.22

CommodityJan-21

2.55

5.13

4.063.66

1.18

Average: 3.32

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1H16 1H17 1H18 1H19 1H20

Agriculture Output Growth (%)

Source: National Strategic Food Information Center (PIHPS), Mandiri Sekuritas

estimate (as of 27-Jan-21)

Source: CEIC

Leo Rinaldy(+6221 5296 9406) [email protected] Imanuel Reinaldo(+6221 5296 9651) [email protected]

Banking Data Nov-20: Lending Remains Subdued

Banking sector’s loan growth remained in negative territory at -1.4% YoY/-3.0% YTD in Nov-20, due to the decline in manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade. Deposit growth was at +11.6% YoY/+10.6% YTD, bringing LDR to the lowest level since 2012. NPL rose to 3.18%, with loan loss coverage up at 174%. NIM hovered at 4.41%, while CAR inched up to 24.2% in Nov-20. Maintain Overweight.

Loan growth:

− -1.4% YoY (-0.6% MoM/-3.0% YTD) in November, slower than -0.5% YoY (-0.9% MoM/-2.4% YTD) reported in October.

− Adjusted for currency movement, loan growth declined by -1.4% YoY, lower than -1.1% YoY in October. Rupiah loan growth declined by -1.3% YoY (-0.9% YoY in October), foreign currency in rupiah declined by -2.0% YoY (+2.4% YoY), whereas FX loan growth in USD also declined by -2.1% YoY (-2.4% YoY in October).

− Based on bank classification, BUKU IV (7 banks) posted the highest loan growth at +2.7% YoY, followed by BUKU II (56 banks) at +0.1% YoY, while BUKU III’s (25 banks) declined by -9.6% and BUKU I’s (8 banks) by -51.5% YoY. Sharia banks’ (14 banks) loan growth was at +11.5% YoY compared to +10.9% YoY in October.

SECTOR




− Based on usage, investment loans still had the strongest growth at +0.6% YoY, while consumption loans declined by -0.2% YoY and working capital loans by -3.3% YoY on subdued demand.

− Of the large sectors with >5% loan exposure: agriculture loans (7.0% exposure) grew by +3.3% YoY, construction (6.9%) by +3.3% YoY, homeownership/landed-house (9.1%) by +3.7% YoY, while wholesale and retail trade (17.2%) remained weak at -5.8% YoY and manufacturing (16.2%) by -2.5% YoY since the two sectors have been hit hard by the pandemic.

− On a regional basis, only Sulawesi saw loan growth picking up by +2.3% YoY from +0.6% YoY in October. Meanwhile, loan growth in Java and Bali further weakened to -2.6% YoY from -1.5% in October, in Kalimantan to -0.7% YoY from -0.2% YoY, in Sumatra to +0.5% YoY from +1.3% YoY, while other areas grew by +12.3% YoY from 13.6% YoY.

Deposit growth:

− +11.6% YoY (+0.2% MoM/+10.6% YTD) vs. +12.1% YoY (-0.5 MoM/+10.4% YTD) in October.

− Adjusting for rupiah depreciation, deposits grew by +11.5% YoY in November, higher than 11.4% YoY in October. Rupiah deposits grew by +11.3% YoY vs. +12.0% YoY in October. Foreign currency deposits in rupiah grew by +13.0% YoY vs. +12.7% YoY in October. In USD, FX deposits increased by +12.8% YoY vs. +7.5% in October.

− Based on bank classification, deposits in BUKU IV banks grew the strongest at +15.9% YoY, followed by BUKU II at +8.2% YoY and BUKU III at +5.6% YoY. Meanwhile, deposits in BUKU I declined by -57.4% YoY partly due to flight-to-quality to bigger banks. Deposit growth in sharia banks was at +15.0% YoY.

− Based on type, CASA deposit growth remain strong at +15.1% YoY in November vs. 15.6% in October, with strong CA growth at +18.6% YoY and SA at +12.4% YoY, while time deposits went up by +7.0% YoY. Increasing e-commerce transactions, higher savings by affluent households, and restricted enterprise activities contributed to CASA pile-up, we think.

Liquidity: LDR declined again to 82.1% in November, the lowest since 2012 (rupiah LDR is at 82.2% and foreign currency LDR at 81.7%), from 82.8% in October. Though, BUKU I banks’ LDR increased to 91.3% from 78.8% in October and BUKU II’s to 80.1% from 79.7%, more due to customer deposit decline. Meanwhile, BUKU III’s LDR declined to 87.4% from 88.7% and BUKU IV’s to 80.3% from 81.1%. Excluding BBCA, LDR in BUKU IV banks was at 83.0%, down from 83.6% in October. Also, sharia banks’ LDR was up to 77.6% in November from 77.1% in October.

Asset quality:

− NPL inched up to 3.18% in November from 3.15% in October mainly due to declining loan balances, while the special mention loans (category 2) declined to 4.83% from 4.93% in October. In absolute terms, total NPL increased by +13.0% YoY/+0.1% MoM/+22.0% YTD, while special mention loans declined by -15.7% YoY/-2.6% MoM/ -7.7% YTD.

− Only BUKU II banks saw NPL improvement, down to 3.62% in November from 3.68% in October. Meanwhile, BUKU I banks saw NPL increased to 3.48% from 2.71%, BUKU III banks’ to 3.09% from 3.04%, and BUKU IV banks’ to 3.13% from 3.12%. NPF in sharia banks increased to 3.22% from 3.18% in October.

− NPL in investment loans increased to 3.15% in November from 2.95% in October. Meanwhile, NPL in consumer loans declined to 1.93% from 2.03% in October, whereas NPL in working capital loans stayed at 3.97%.

− Main industries’ NPL levels: NPL in mining increased to 7.11% (from 5.70% in October) and NPL in processing industry increased to 4.65% (from 4.56% in October). However, NPL in accommodation and F&B declined to 6.25% (from 6.36% in October), in construction to 3.62% (from 3.70% in October), and in wholesale & retail to 4.56% (from 4.58% in October). NPL in household loans declined to 2.01% from 2.10% in October, with NPL in homeownership (landed house) declining to 2.76% (2.87%), in apartment ownership to 2.42% (2.48%), in shop house ownership to 5.39% (5.60%), and in vehicle ownership to 2.14% (2.31%).




− Sumatra posted the largest NPL improvement to 3.24% from 3.33% in October, followed by Sulawesi to 2.72% from 2.74%. Meanwhile, Java and Bali saw NPL increased to 3.29% from 3.25%, Kalimantan to 3.50% from 3.47%, while NPL in other parts of Indonesia increased to 1.30% from 1.26%.

− Loan-loss coverage ratio increased to 174% from 170% in October as more banks are preparing for NPL pick up post OJK’s loan restructuring period ends in Mar-21. BUKU IV banks still maintained their high coverage ratio at 221%, higher than October’s level of 214%, BUKU III was stable at 117%, BUKU II at 115% (113%), and BUKU I at 67% (74%). The coverage ratio in sharia banks remained stable at 104%. On YoY basis, loan-loss coverage ratio in November ’20 is 60 percentage points higher than the 114% in November ’19. Especially, BUKU IV banks’ loan-loss coverage ratio is 71 percentage points higher and BUKU III banks’ is 30 percentage points higher on YoY basis.

Profitability:

− Industry NIM was stable at 4.41% in November and October.

− Only BUKU IV banks’ NIM improved, up to 4.88% from 4.86% in October. Meanwhile, NIM in BUKU I weakened to 4.33% from 4.68%, in BUKU III to 3.49% from 3.51%, and in BUKU II to 4.50% from 4.52%.

− Interest rates are on a declining trend in the past year across all types of loans. On average, lending rates have declined by 83 bps in the past 12 months. On the deposit side, the average 1-M T/D rates have declined by 152 bps over the past 12 months.

Capital: average CAR increased to 24.2% from 23.8% in October.

Maintain Overweight for the banking sector.

OJK BANKING DATA SUMMARY

Nov-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Loan growth (% YoY) 7.1 6.1 8.0 1.5 0.1 (0.5) (1.4)

Loan growth (% YTD) 4.3 6.1 1.7 (1.2) (1.5) (2.4) (3.0)

Deposits growth (% YoY) 6.7 6.5 9.5 7.9 12.9 12.1 11.6

Deposits growth (% YTD) 5.6 6.5 3.6 4.4 10.9 10.4 10.6

LDR (%) 92.9 93.6 91.9 88.6 83.2 82.8 82.1

NPL (%) 2.77 2.53 2.77 3.11 3.14 3.15 3.18

Loan-loss coverage (%) 114 116 165 159 166 170 174

Special mention loans (%) 5.6 5.1 6.6 5.5 4.9 4.9 4.8

NIM (%) 4.89 4.91 4.31 4.46 4.41 4.41 4.41

CAR (%) 23.8 23.4 21.7 22.5 23.5 23.8 24.2

Avg. Rp. lending rates (%):

Investment loans 10.02 9.90 9.70 9.30 9.06 9.01 8.96

Working capital loans 10.20 10.03 9.91 9.43 9.37 9.32 9.25

Consumer loans 11.49 11.62 11.37 11.20 11.10 11.05 11.00

Avg. Rp. deposit rates (%):

Demand deposit 2.21 2.27 2.18 2.20 2.07 2.00 1.97

Savings deposit 1.19 1.17 1.14 1.03 0.95 0.90 0.87

1-M T/D 5.98 6.02 5.72 5.49 4.90 4.66 4.45

3-M T/D 6.37 6.32 6.12 5.75 5.14 4.79 4.57

BI rate (%) 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.25 4.00 4.00 3.75

Inflation rate (% YoY) 3.00 2.72 2.96 1.96 1.42 1.44 1.59

Source: OJK, BPS, Mandiri Sekuritas

Kresna Hutabarat (+6221 5296 9542) [email protected] Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) [email protected]




Coal: Proposed New Royalty Scheme for IUPK

The government is drafting new royalty fees for IUPK license. APBI proposed royalty fees at 14-20%, with royalty for the export market to be linked to coal market prices. We believe the impact on coal miners’ earnings will remain “manageable”, given that the higher royalty tax will be compensated with lower corporate tax.

Proposed higher royalty tax for IUPK. The government is drafting a new scheme for coal royalty for special mining license (IUPK). The new IUPK license will be issued to replace the coal contract of work (CCoW) license, which will expire in the next 15 years. The Indonesian coal association (APBI) proposes coal royalty for IUPK at 14-20%. The 14% royalty tax will be charged for domestic market obligation (DMO), while the 14-20% royalty tax for the export market will be linked to coal market prices. From what we understand, the new tax scheme is dedicated for CCoW first generation contract, including the licenses held by ADRO (Tutupan and Wara - 2022), INDY (Kideco - 2023), ITMG (Indominco – 20230), and BUMI (KPC - 2022). The higher royalty is to compensate the lower government revenue, mainly from lower corporate tax from 45% under CCoW first generation contract to the current corporate tax of 22%. No impact on CCoW second to third generations (ITMG – Trubaindo and Bharinto and HRUM – MSJ and Santan) as both have already paid 22% corporate tax and no impact on PTBA, given its mining license (IUP) contract with 3-7% royalty fees (based on coal quality).

Impact on earnings? We believe the impact on earnings from the higher royalty tax is still “manageable”, as the higher royalty will be compensated with lower corporate tax. From what we understand, besides the higher royalty, the government also plans to impose 10% profit sharing from net profit. Based on our earnings forecast on ADRO, we forecast ADRO’s FY23F net profit will marginally change by -1% to -5%, assuming 1) the royalty tax will increase from 13.5% to 14-20% (80% of sales to export market); 2) lower corporate tax from 45% to 22%, and; 3) 10% profit sharing from net profit.

We reiterate PTBA (Buy, Rp3,100 TP) as our top pick, considering its strong production growth outlook and low cost-structure. We also like ADRO (Buy, Rp1,750 TP) for its low cost-structure and attractive asset play, given its exposure to large coking coal assets and power plants. We reiterate our Neutral call on ITMG (Neutral, Rp15,000 TP) and HRUM (Neutral, Rp3,000 TP).

PROPOSED ROYALTY TAX FOR SPECIAL MINING LICENSE (IUPK)

Royalty tax

Coal price (USD/ton) <70 70-80 80-90 >90 Current licence (CCoW 1st gen) 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% Proposed royalty tax Domestic sales 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% Export sales 14% 16% 18% 20%

Source: Kontan

ADRO’S EARNINGS SENSITIVITY TO PROPOSED ROYALTY TAX ADRO FY23F earnings forecast Coal price

Coal price assumption (USD/ton) 70 90 100 Change in net profit based on CCoW 1st gen vs proposed royalty scheme 10% 10% 5%

Change in net profit including 10% profit sharing -0.9% -0.7% -5.4%

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas

COAL RESERVES AND RESOURCES

Company Coal mines License Expire in mn tons

CV SR(x) Reserves Resources

Adaro Energy Tutupan + Wara CcoW 1st gen 2022 950 4900 4,000-4,800kcal 5.9

MIP IUP 2030 254 288 4,345kcal n/a




Company Coal mines License Expire in mn tons

CV SR(x) Reserves Resources

AdareMetCoal CCoW 2045 1270 Coking coal

Bukit Asam TanjungEnim IUP 2019-2035 3330 8270 5,300-7,600kcal 4

Bumi Resources

KPC CcoW 1st gen 2022 578 7670 avg 5,600kcal 6.7

Arutmin CcoW 1st gen 2019 277 2377

Pendopo CCoW 2039 1306 2311 2,400kcal

Harum Energy

MSJ CcoW 3rd gen 2034 95 339 5,750kcal 7.0

Santan Batubara CcoW 3rd gen 2038 16 108 5,377kcal 11.0

TBH IUP 2031 11.5 39 - -

Indo Tambangraya

Indominco CcoW 1st gen 2030 57 720 6,000-6,300kcal 10.7

Trubaindo CcoW 2nd gen 2035 38 390 6,500-7,300kcal 9.6

Bharinto CcoW 3rd gen 2027 94 216 6,400-6,800kcal 7.3

Kitadin IUP 3 151 5,800-6,700kcal 13.5

Jorong CcoW 2nd gen 2035 1 140 5,300kcal 6.0

Source: Mandiri Sekuritas

Ariyanto Kurniawan (+6221 5296 9682) [email protected] Wesley Louis Alianto (+6221 5296 9510) [email protected] Construction: Inauguration of Indonesia Investment Authority’s Supervisory Board

President Jokowi has officially inaugurated the supervisory board of Indonesia’s Investment Authority (INA), namely: Sri Mulyani (the Minister of Finance), Erick Thohir (the Minister of SOE), Cyril Noerhadi (partner at Creador Indonesia), Yozua Makes (managing partner at Makes & Partners), and Haryanto Sahari (independent commissioner of Bank Permata). The BoD is expected to be formed in Feb-21, while the latest funding round has reached USD 10.0bn.

Officially inaugurated the supervisory committee of INA. The Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani, and the Minister of State-Owned Enterprises, Erick Thohir, along with the three professional members have finally been inaugurated by President Joko Widodo to sit in supervisory board of the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA). The three professional members are:

− Cyril Noerhadi – partner at Creador Indonesia with more than 30 years of experience in financial industry.

− Yozua Makes – managing partner at Makes & Partners law firm with more than 30 years of experience in restructuring, insolvency, and broad range of complex cross-border commercial transactions associated with capital markets.

− Haryanto Sahari – independent commissioner of Bank Permata with more than 40 years of experience in auditing. He used to be the partner at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC Indonesia).

We think the aforementioned supervisory committee members have solid track records to properly oversee Indonesia’s first sovereign wealth fund. Details of their profiles in figure 1.

What’s next: After the inauguration of the supervisory board, the government will appoint the Board of Directors in Feb-21. The commercial operation is expected to start immediately afterward. As reported by Bloomberg, these are the CEO candidates: 1) Pandu Sjahrir, Partner at Indies Capital & Agaeti VC; 2) Arief Budiman, former CFO of Pertamina; 3) Arsjad Rasjid, President Director of Indika Energy; 4) Tigor Siahaan, CEO of Bank CIMB Niaga; 5) Rizal Gozali, President Director of Credit Suisse Sekuritas Indonesia. We believe the management team is one of the most important factors in INA’s first establishment to successfully run the investment operations.




SWF funding updates. As reported in Reuters, the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartanto highlighted that Indonesia’s first sovereign wealth fund had secured USD 10.0bn of investment commitment from overseas investors out of the targeted USD 20.0bn, following the additional USD 1.5bn commitment from Dutch pension fund APG and USD 300mn from Macquarie Group. Previously, the government has secured USD 2.0bn from Canadian pension fund Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), USD 2.0bn from U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC), and USD 4.0bn from Japan Bank for International Corporation (JBIC).

We have an Overweight rating on the construction sector.

3 PROFESSIONAL MEMBERS OF INDONESIA INVESTMENT AUTHORITY SUPERVISORY BOARD PROFILE Name Profile Tenure

Darwin Cyril Noerhadi

- Chairman and co-founder of Creador Indonesia 2011 - Present

- Commissioner at Medikaloka Hermina 2018 - Present

- Chairman and President Commissioner at Mandiri Sekuritas 2012 - 2020

- CFO of Medco Energi 2005 - 2011

- Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) 1999 - 2005

- President Director of Jakarta Stock Exchange 1996 - 1999

Education: - Bachelor's Degree in Petroleum Geology from Institut Teknologi Bandung - MBA from the University of Houston - PhD in Strategic Management from Universitas Indonesia

Yozua Makes

- Founder of Plataran Group 2009 - Present

- Founder and Managing Partner at Makes & Partners 1993 - Present

- Distinguished Associate Professor at Universitas Pelita Harapan Present

- Advisor to the Minister of Defense 2001 - 2004

- Partner at Kartini Muljadi & Associates Law Firm 1991 - 1993

- Head of Corporation Finance Division Lubis, Hadiputranto, Ganie & Surowidjojo Law Firm 1987 - 1990

- Partner at Mulia Lubis & Partners Law Firm 1984 - 1985

- One of the first members of the National Committee on Corporate Governance (KNKG) 1998

Education: - Bachelor's degree in Law from Universitas Indonesia - Master's degree in Law from the University of California, Berkeley - Master's degree in Management from the Asian Institute of Management - Advanced Management Program at Harvard University

Haryanto Sahari

- President Audit Committee of Bank Permata 2020 - Present

- Independent Commissioner and President Audit Committee of Cardig Aero Services 2019 - Present

- President Audit Committee of Medikaloka Hermina 2017 - Present

- Audit Committee of Unilever Indonesia 2016 - Present

- Audit Committee of Universitas Indonesia 2016 - Present

- Commissioner at Kikim Resources 2012 - 2017

- Commissioner at Agri Capital Resources 2010 - 2016

- Commissioner at Tempirai Palm Resources 2009 - 2016

- Commissioner at Rambang Agro Jaya 2008 - 2016

- Partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) 1990 - 2017

Education: - Bachelor's degree in Accounting from Universitas Indonesia

Source: Company website, linkedin, various sources

Edbert Surya (+6221 5296 9623) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]




Pakuwon Jati: 4Q20 Presales - Steep Yoy Decline Despite Qoq Growth (PWON; Rp486; Buy; TP: Rp770)

PWON booked IDR 301bn in 4Q20 presales, -37% yoy, despite +34% qoq growth. This brought FY20 presales to IDR 1tn, -32% yoy, in-line with management’s revised guidance. Its Bekasi project had also picked up meaningfully in presales after two quarters of dismal sales. Maintain Buy on PWON.

4Q20 presales -37% yoy, +34% qoq; meaningful pickup in Bekasi sales. PWON’s 4Q20 sales of IDR 301bn marked strong +34% qoq growth, albeit also a meaningful decline yoy at -37.4%. While most contribution still came from Surabaya, strong pickup in sales at the new Bekasi project also helped boost greater Jakarta presales by +161.2% qoq, compared to 4Q19 seeing only refunds in Greater Jakarta. Surabaya’s projects also rose +8.2% qoq, while falling -58.8% yoy; this was driven mostly by high-rise projects as PWON had not increased its offering of affordable landed units.

FY20 presales -32% yoy, slightly ahead of management target. The FY20 achievement of IDR 1tn was a slight 2.6% higher than management’s revised target of IDR 1tn (prior: IDR 1.5-1.7tn), but marked -31.8% yoy decline from IDR 1.5tn in FY19, rendering PWON one of the worst presales performers in FY20.

IDR 1.4tn FY21 presales target. Management has provided FY21 presales target of IDR 1.4tn, +36.5% yoy. This will be driven by continued launches in the Bekasi project, as well as re-commencement of landed housing launches in Surabaya.

Maintain Buy. We maintain our Buy call on PWON despite its recent headwinds from weak presales and malls facing shorter hours and capacity limitations. PWON nonetheless would likely improve quicker than peers upon reopening, while continuing to generate stronger cash flows. PWON trades at 61% discount to NAV, -1.3 SDs below its 5-year mean.

IDRbn 3Q20 4Q20 4Q19 Qoq Yoy 12M20 12M19 Yoy Condo 109 214 238 97.5% -9.9% 613 1,001 -38.8%

Office (0) 10 52 N/A -81.5% 29 112 -74.0%

Landed houses 116 77 191 -33.7% -59.8% 384 390 -1.7%

Total 224 301 481 34.0% -37.4% 1,026 1,503 -31.8%

Greater Jakarta 38 99 (9) 161.2% N/A 344 250 37.7%

Surabaya 187 202 490 8.2% -58.8% 682 1,253 -45.6%

Payment profile Cash 23% 36% 18% 24% 20%

Mortgage 48% 47% 48% 47% 44%

Installment 30% 14% 36% 28% 36%

Source: Company

Robin Sutanto (+6221 5296 9572) [email protected] Semen Indonesia: Updates on Taiheiyo’s Acquisition of SMCB Stake (SMGR; Rp11,575; Buy; TP: Rp11,020)

TCC will acquire a 15% stake in SMCB as part of SMCB’s upcoming rights issue planned for Jul-21 at exercise price of IDR 2,300/share, translating to EV/ton of USD 136. SMCB plans to use the proceeds to pay down its bank loans in 2021, resultant of which we estimate on a consolidated basis, SMGR’s bottom line could see 5-7% upward increment in 2021-2022F, while also fulfilling its obligation to refloat SMCB. Maintain Buy.

Offer consideration translates to USD 136/ton. According to a disclosure document from Taiheiyo Cement Corporation (TCC), it plans to acquire a 15% stake in SMCB through a rights issue which SMCB will undertake in Jul-21. SIIB, a 100%-owned subsidiary of SMGR’s which owns 98.3% of SMCB, will not exercise its rights and the new shares will be transferred to TCC, which will own a minimum of 15% post-rights stake in SMCB. The exercise price is estimated at IDR 2,300/share, which translates to USD 136/ton valuation, compared to SMGR’s acquisition in 2019 for USD 115/ton, and SMCB’s current valuation of USD 100/ton.

CORPORATE




Targeted proceeds at IDR 3.1tn, expected to be used for debt reduction. Based on the targeted stake and planned strike price, the rights issue should raise a minimum of IDR 3.1tn for SMCB. The company plans to channel it fully for bank loan repayment, thus while the proceeds would be kept within SMCB, the reduction in total debt would on a consolidated basis benefit SMGR via improvement in bottom line by 5%/7% in 2021/22F, while net gearing would also improve to 41%/31% from 53%/42% in 2021/2022F. TCC’s stake would also relieve SMGR of Financial Services Authority requirements mandating a 7.5% free float minimum for public-listed firms, and to refloat stakes owned via mandatory tender offers – SMGR had acquired 80.6% stake in SMCB outright in early 2019, followed by further 17.7% through the mandatory tender offer which had followed. SMCB’s free float had remained at 1.7% since.

TCC gets board seats, will help SMCB’s exports. The acquisition will entitle TCC to a board seat in SMCB’s BOD and BOC, while also providing aid to SMCB in boosting its exports. Contingent upon overhaul of the jetty at SMCB’s Tuban plant (estimated to take 2.5 years), TCC’s global network is expected to boost SMCB’s exports by up to 1mn tons annually, with priority being 500k tons to TCC’s US-based subsidiary at FOB shipping, as applies currently to SMCB’s clinker exports.

Maintain Buy. SMGR currently trades at USD 130/ton, 0.8 standard deviations below its 9-year mean.

Robin Sutanto (+6221 5296 9572) [email protected]

PGN is targeting 12% YoY gas sales volume increase in 2021 Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ) is targeting 12% YoY gas sales volume increase from 815BBTUD in 2020 to 912BBTUD in 2021. This gas sales comes from corporate customers (351BBTUD), retail customers (552BBTUD), and city gas (9BBTUD). This distribution volume will increase to 1,023-1,340BBTUD in 2022-24F. Meanwhile, the company is also targeting 6% YoY gas transportation volume increase from 1,287BBTUD in 2020 to 1,360BBTUD in 2021. (Investor Daily)

FROM THE PRESS




Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 27 Jan-21

Testing: Daily specimens tested went up to 78k. Daily case tested went up to 46k.

New cases: Indo recorded 11,948 daily new cases yesterday.

Infection rate: Daily national infection reached 26% yesterday (3DMA 30%/7DMA 28%). Jakarta daily infection rate reached 14% (3DMA 19%/7DMA 17%). National infection rate showed plateuing trend, with ex Jakarta infection rate led the decline and maintained Jakarta infection rate.

Epicenters: West Java (+3,198), Jakarta (+1,836), Central Java (+1,797), East Java (+1,064), East Kalimantan (+756), Bali (+540). We see declining trend in South Sulawesi new cases.

From the news:

− West Java to add 7 cities for social restriction (PPKM) until 8 Feb as they fit the criteria set by central govt. After the addition, total cities under social restriction becomes 27 cities.

COVID-19 INDONESIA




Inggrid Gondoprastowo (+6221 5296 9450) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected] Vaccine

Some details on “Vaksin Gotong Royong” - the new format for voluntary vaccination.

Scheme: Employee will receive vaccine for free. Cost of vaccine borne by employer.

Timeline: vaccination to start in Apr-21. Data consolidation by 28 Feb.

Recipient target: 25-30mn employees (incld family members). This includes for company member and non-member of Kadin, incld SMEs.

Total doses needed: 60mn doses

Price: Rp500k-Rp1mn per person (incld salary, logistic, cold chain, import tax), borne by employer.

Vaccine brand under nego: Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, Sputnik.

Progress: In negotiation stage. Discussion has reached topic on delivery timeline and supply. Inggrid Gondoprastowo (+6221 5296 9450) [email protected] Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) [email protected]




Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

Indices Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

Currency Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

Last Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)

JCI 6,109.2 -0.5 +2.2 Rp/US$ 14,050 -0.11 +0.0 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 52.85 +0.5 +8.9

Dow Jones 30,303.2 -2.1 -1.0 US$/EUR 1.211 -0.40 +0.9 Copper (US$/mt) 7,825 -2.3 +0.8

Nikkei 28,635.2 +0.3 +4.3 YEN/US$ 104.11 +0.47 -0.8 Nickel (US$/mt) 17,916 -0.8 +7.8

Hang Seng 29,297.5 -0.3 +7.6 SGD/US$ 1.329 +0.32 -0.5 Gold (US$/oz) 1,844 -0.4 -2.9

STI 2,958.6 +0.5 +4.0 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 22,805 -0.2 +12.2

Ishares indo 23.1 -2.7 -1.6 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 3,388 +3.7 -5.9

Coal (US$/ton) 86.2 +0.2 +7.1

Foreign Fund Flows (US$mn)

Last Chg YTD Chg

Gov. Bond Yield

Last Chg

(bps)

YTD Chg

(bps) Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 215.9 +0.4 -2.9

Equity Flow -0.5 +837 5Yr 5.23 +1 +3 Soybean oil (US$/100gallons)

44.52 +1.4 +2.7

Bonds Flow +185.5 +479 10Yr 6.22 -3 +34 Baltic Dry Index 1,659.0 -6.0 +21.4




Equity Valuation Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022

MANSEK universe 6,109 6,850 12.1 4,380,294 238,325 283,761 18.3 15.6 2.2 2.1 13.8 12.8 34.9% 19.1% 2.2% 2.8%

Banking 1,803,202 100,141 117,775 17.9 15.6 2.3 2.2 N.A. N.A. 54.2% 17.7% 1.3% 2.2%

BBCA Buy 33,950 40,000 17.8 837,038 33,357 37,145 25.1 22.5 4.1 3.7 N.A. N.A. 20.8% 11.4% 1.5% 1.8%

BBNI Buy 5,975 8,000 33.9 111,426 14,210 16,049 7.8 6.9 0.9 0.8 N.A. N.A. 255.0% 12.9% 0.9% 3.8%

BBRI Buy 4,620 5,500 19.0 569,639 32,751 39,703 17.4 14.3 2.5 2.3 N.A. N.A. 71.2% 21.2% 1.0% 2.9%

BBTN Buy 1,700 2,500 47.1 18,003 2,515 3,011 7.2 6.0 0.8 0.7 N.A. N.A. 65.8% 19.7% 1.4% 2.1%

BDMN Buy 2,950 4,100 39.0 28,832 3,538 4,034 8.0 7.0 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 71.5% 14.0% 2.5% 4.3%

BJBR Neutral 1,580 1,700 7.6 15,545 1,744 2,023 8.9 7.7 1.3 1.2 N.A. N.A. 11.3% 16.0% 6.2% 6.3%

BJTM Buy 770 900 16.9 11,552 1,557 1,810 7.4 6.4 1.1 1.0 N.A. N.A. 10.0% 16.3% 6.6% 6.8%

BNGA Buy 900 1,300 44.4 22,618 3,309 4,229 6.8 5.3 0.5 0.5 N.A. N.A. 44.6% 27.8% 4.0% 5.9%

BNLI Neutral 2,700 2,900 7.4 124,188 1,170 2,366 75.1 57.6 3.4 4.4 N.A. N.A. 10.5% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%

PNBN Buy 1,005 1,400 39.3 24,202 3,405 3,829 7.1 6.3 0.6 0.6 N.A. N.A. 12.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0%

BTPS Buy 3,400 4,500 32.4 26,193 1,597 2,286 16.4 11.5 3.6 2.9 N.A. N.A. 87.3% 43.1% 0.8% 1.5%

BFIN Buy 695 475 (31.7) 10,400 841 1,196 12.4 8.7 1.4 1.3 N.A. N.A. 7.7% 42.3% 2.3% 2.8%

AMOR Buy 3,210 4,400 37.1 3,567 107 188 33.3 19.0 12.3 11.9 25.6 14.5 28.1% 75.1% 2.9% 5.0%

Construction & materials 221,892 8,077 11,182 27.5 19.8 1.6 1.5 12.4 11.0 120.5% 38.4% 0.8% 1.2%

INTP Buy 14,275 14,500 1.6 52,550 2,003 2,586 26.2 20.3 2.1 1.9 12.8 10.4 19.8% 29.1% 1.1% 1.3%

SMGR Buy 11,575 11,020 (4.8) 68,657 2,825 3,387 24.3 20.3 1.9 1.8 10.0 9.1 12.1% 19.9% 1.4% 1.5%

ADHI Buy 1,570 810 (48.4) 5,591 361 474 15.5 11.8 0.9 0.9 8.6 7.7 243.0% 31.4% 0.4% 1.3%

PTPP Buy 1,860 1,370 (26.3) 11,532 754 967 15.3 11.9 0.9 0.9 8.6 7.6 244.3% 28.3% 0.6% 2.0%

WIKA Buy 1,965 1,680 (14.5) 17,607 1,159 1,598 15.2 11.0 1.1 1.0 8.2 6.8 106.5% 37.9% 1.3% 1.8%

WSKT Buy 1,630 1,230 (24.5) 21,811 -1,501 -1,500 -14.5 -14.5 2.4 2.8 24.7 23.5 29.9% 0.0% -1.4% -1.4%

WTON Buy 386 500 29.5 3,364 438 548 7.7 6.1 0.9 0.8 3.6 3.1 53.7% 25.3% 2.5% 3.9%

WSBP Buy 286 195 (31.8) 7,539 83 240 91.0 31.4 1.0 1.0 17.4 12.6 N/M 190.1% 0.0% 0.5%

JSMR Buy 4,580 7,040 53.7 33,241 1,957 2,882 17.0 11.5 1.6 1.5 12.1 11.2 251.0% 47.3% 0.3% 1.2%

Consumer staples 785,164 40,267 46,137 19.5 17.0 4.1 3.8 12.5 11.3 1.6% 14.6% 3.7% 3.9%

ICBP Buy 9,500 12,050 26.8 110,788 6,319 6,940 17.5 16.0 3.4 3.1 10.5 9.7 5.7% 9.8% 2.7% 2.8%

INDF Buy 6,550 9,950 51.9 57,509 6,307 6,849 9.1 8.4 1.3 1.2 5.8 5.5 6.5% 8.6% 5.1% 5.5%

MYOR Buy 2,840 2,600 (8.5) 63,500 2,190 2,466 29.0 25.7 5.0 4.5 16.5 14.8 -9.2% 12.6% 1.4% 1.3%

UNVR Buy 7,125 9,700 36.1 271,819 8,138 8,981 33.4 30.3 50.5 46.4 23.6 22.1 9.7% 10.4% 2.7% 3.0%

GGRM Buy 40,025 50,150 25.3 77,012 6,567 8,206 11.7 9.4 1.3 1.2 7.6 6.7 -16.1% 25.0% 6.5% 6.5%

HMSP Buy 1,405 1,800 28.1 163,427 8,671 10,259 18.8 15.9 5.3 5.0 14.3 12.2 -4.0% 18.3% 5.4% 5.2%

SIDO Buy 740 980 32.4 22,200 1,011 1,136 21.9 19.5 6.6 6.3 16.3 14.9 10.9% 12.4% 4.0% 4.5%

MLBI Buy 8,975 13,250 47.6 18,910 1,063 1,299 17.8 14.6 14.5 12.3 11.4 9.6 656.9% 22.1% 0.7% 5.6%

Healthcare 60,755 1,080 1,328 56.2 45.8 4.4 4.1 20.5 17.2 28.3% 22.9% 0.1% 0.1%

MIKA Buy 2,780 2,750 (1.1) 40,451 659 751 61.4 53.9 8.1 7.4 39.4 35.3 20.5% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0%

SILO Buy 5,250 5,950 13.3 8,531 22 55 384.1 154.4 1.4 1.4 9.1 7.4 N/M 148.7% 0.0% 0.0%

HEAL Buy 3,960 4,000 1.0 11,773 400 522 29.5 22.6 4.2 3.6 12.2 9.9 17.8% 30.6% 0.4% 0.5%

Consumer discretionary 364,858 24,961 29,284 14.6 12.5 1.7 1.6 9.5 8.6 21.4% 17.3% 2.5% 2.8%

ACES Buy 1,595 2,200 37.9 27,354 991 1,153 27.6 23.7 4.7 4.1 18.7 16.3 23.8% 16.4% 0.9% 1.1%

LPPF Buy 1,095 2,000 82.6 2,876 593 823 4.9 3.5 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.3 N/M 38.8% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPA Buy 2,590 4,000 54.4 7,383 314 475 23.5 15.6 2.3 2.0 9.5 6.4 N/M 51.1% 0.0% 0.0%

MAPI Buy 810 1,223 50.9 13,446 550 976 24.4 13.8 2.2 1.9 6.6 4.9 N/M 77.3% 0.0% 0.0%

RALS Buy 705 1,150 63.1 5,003 242 404 20.7 12.4 1.3 1.2 8.4 4.6 N/M 66.9% 0.0% 2.5%

ERAA Buy 2,670 2,000 (25.1) 8,517 436 506 19.5 16.8 1.6 1.5 12.0 10.9 63.0% 16.1% 1.0% 1.2%

ASII Buy 6,275 6,300 0.4 254,034 18,098 20,591 14.0 12.3 1.5 1.4 9.9 9.3 1.9% 13.8% 3.1% 3.2%

SCMA Neutral 2,190 2,000 (8.7) 30,452 1,341 1,515 22.7 20.1 5.0 4.3 15.5 13.6 12.8% 13.0% 1.8% 2.2%

MNCN Buy 1,100 2,000 81.8 13,618 2,266 2,639 6.0 5.2 0.9 0.8 4.2 3.6 20.3% 16.5% 2.5% 5.8%

PZZA Buy 720 750 4.2 2,176 130 202 16.7 10.8 1.6 1.4 6.4 5.0 N/M 55.5% 0.0% 3.0%

Commodities 376,617 23,710 26,988 15.9 13.9 1.5 1.4 6.1 5.5 38.9% 13.8% 2.3% 2.6%

UNTR Buy 23,400 31,700 35.5 87,285 10,603 10,822 8.2 8.1 1.2 1.1 3.6 3.2 47.8% 2.1% 3.6% 3.7%

ADRO* Buy 1,245 1,750 40.6 39,823 256 282 11.0 10.0 0.7 0.7 3.8 3.3 24.0% 10.1% 3.1% 3.4%

HRUM* Neutral 4,890 3,000 (38.6) 12,551 10 11 91.2 77.9 2.7 2.7 30.0 25.3 -66.1% 17.1% 0.6% 0.7%

INDY* Neutral 1,405 910 (35.2) 7,320 6 82 80.9 6.3 0.6 0.5 1.7 1.6 286.9% 1182.5% 0.3% 4.0%

ITMG* Neutral 11,900 15,000 26.1 13,049 93 128 9.9 7.2 1.1 1.0 3.7 2.9 61.3% 38.1% 8.6% 11.8%




Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield

Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022

PTBA Buy 2,680 3,100 15.7 30,880 2,917 3,429 10.5 9.0 1.7 1.5 6.9 5.5 29.9% 17.5% 7.1% 8.3%

ANTM Buy 2,550 1,850 (27.4) 61,278 1,739 1,717 35.2 35.7 2.6 2.5 17.4 17.0 48.3% -1.3% 1.0% 1.0%

INCO* Neutral 5,750 4,000 (30.4) 57,134 106 146 37.9 27.7 1.9 1.8 12.3 10.2 3.7% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0%

TINS Neutral 1,950 800 (59.0) 14,523 357 455 40.7 31.9 2.5 2.4 15.2 14.4 N/M 27.6% 0.9% 1.1%

MDKA* Buy 2,410 2,100 (12.9) 52,773 99 96 37.4 38.8 5.7 4.9 14.0 13.7 55.2% -3.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Property & Industrial Estate 113,073 8,875 9,852 12.7 11.5 0.8 0.8 10.1 9.7 54.6% 11.0% 1.5% 1.6%

ASRI Buy 200 210 5.0 3,930 683 821 5.8 4.8 0.4 0.3 7.7 7.1 1534.2% 20.3% 1.0% 1.0%

BSDE Buy 1,150 1,160 0.9 24,347 2,050 2,103 11.9 11.6 0.7 0.7 11.7 12.1 46.5% 2.6% 0.4% -0.8%

CTRA Buy 940 1,120 19.1 17,447 1,094 1,024 15.9 17.0 1.0 1.0 10.7 10.8 31.5% -6.4% 0.8% 1.0%

JRPT Buy 565 670 18.6 7,769 1,065 1,191 7.3 6.5 0.9 0.8 6.2 5.5 6.7% 11.8% 0.1% 4.2%

PWON Buy 486 770 58.4 23,406 1,879 2,361 12.5 9.9 1.4 1.2 9.1 7.5 90.7% 25.6% 1.2% 1.2%

SMRA Buy 740 960 29.7 10,676 604 682 17.7 15.7 1.3 1.2 10.0 9.6 43.8% 12.9% 0.7% 0.7%

LPKR Neutral 186 200 7.5 13,130 391 345 33.6 38.0 0.5 0.4 11.9 12.9 429.7% -11.8% 0.5% 0.5%

DMAS Buy 226 300 32.7 10,893 988 1,158 11.0 9.4 1.9 1.8 10.6 8.8 11.7% 17.2% 9.3% 9.3%

BEST Neutral 153 130 (15.0) 1,476 122 167 12.1 8.8 0.3 0.3 9.7 8.6 14.2% 37.4% 0.6% 1.0%

Telecom 496,321 26,564 30,557 18.7 16.2 3.0 2.9 6.2 5.8 6.7% 15.0% 3.9% 4.3%

EXCL Buy 2,350 3,600 53.2 25,026 1,340 1,806 18.7 13.9 1.1 1.1 4.2 3.9 -38.7% 34.8% 0.8% 1.1%

TLKM Buy 3,380 3,900 15.4 334,830 21,026 23,567 15.9 14.2 3.1 3.0 5.7 5.4 8.4% 12.1% 5.0% 5.6%

ISAT Buy 5,500 3,200 (41.8) 29,887 -648 161 -46.1 185.5 2.7 2.7 5.3 4.8 38.1% N/M 0.0% 0.0%

LINK Buy 2,980 3,300 10.7 8,455 744 790 11.4 10.7 1.6 1.5 4.7 4.5 1.1% 6.2% 4.4% 4.7%

TBIG Buy 2,250 1,900 (15.6) 48,670 1,376 1,385 35.4 35.1 7.7 6.9 14.8 14.1 21.8% 0.7% 1.2% 1.2%

TOWR Buy 985 1,300 32.0 49,452 2,725 2,848 18.1 17.4 4.3 3.8 10.4 10.0 10.1% 4.5% 2.4% 2.4%

Transportation 3,265 251 303 13.0 10.8 0.6 0.6 5.3 5.3 N/M 20.6% 1.9% 2.3%

BIRD Buy 1,305 1,700 30.3 3,265 251 303 13.0 10.8 0.6 0.6 5.3 5.3 N/M 20.6% 1.9% 2.3%

Poultry 119,148 5,574 6,218 21.4 19.2 3.0 2.7 12.0 11.1 86.5% 11.6% 1.1% 2.0%

CPIN Buy 6,125 6,950 13.5 100,438 3,728 4,282 26.9 23.5 4.0 3.7 16.9 14.9 34.3% 14.9% 1.2% 1.9%

JPFA Buy 1,460 1,700 16.4 17,121 1,696 1,714 10.1 10.0 1.4 1.2 6.2 6.2 392.5% 1.1% 0.6% 3.0%

MAIN Buy 710 700 (1.4) 1,590 150 222 10.6 7.2 0.7 0.7 5.0 4.3 N/M 48.1% 0.0% 2.1%

Oil and Gas 35,999 -1,175 4,138 -30.6 8.7 1.1 1.0 6.5 5.6 -65.8% N/M 0.0% 3.4%

PGAS* Buy 1,485 2,200 48.1 35,999 -83 292 -30.6 8.7 1.1 1.0 6.5 5.6 65.5% N/M 0.0% 3.4%

Note: - *) net profit in USD mn - U/R means Under Review - n/a means Not Available - N/M means Not Meaningful - N.A means Not Applicable


Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Menara Mandiri Tower I, 25th floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54 – 55, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales)

Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer [email protected] +6221 5296 9415 Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research [email protected] +6221 5296 9617 Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical [email protected] +6221 5296 9682 Kresna Hutabarat Telecom, Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9542 Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material [email protected] +6221 5296 9572 Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation [email protected] +6221 5296 9623 Silvony Gathrie Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9544 Inggrid Gondoprastowo Healthcare, Consumer, Retail [email protected] +6221 5296 9450 Riyanto Hartanto Poultry, Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9488 Henry Tedja Media, Oil & Gas [email protected] +6221 5296 9434 Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9510 Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9406 Imanuel Reinaldo Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9651 Silva Halim Managing Director [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Lokman Lie Head of Equity Capital Market [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Michael Taarea Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375 Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities [email protected] 6221 5296 9693 Boy Triyono Jakarta [email protected] 6221 5296 5678 Care Center Online Jakarta [email protected] 14032 Ruwie Medan [email protected] 6261 8050 1825 Linawati Surabaya [email protected] 6231 535 7218 Maulidia Osviana Lampung [email protected] 62721 476 135 Aidil Idham Palembang [email protected] 62711 319 900 Yudhistira Putra Pradana Bandung [email protected] 6222 426 5088 Yuri Ariadi Pontianak [email protected] 62561 582 293 Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta [email protected] 62274 560 596 Achmad Rasyid Bali [email protected] 62361 475 3066 www.most.co.id [email protected] 14032

INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower). DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275374. ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.

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