Inequality and Financial Literacy - EIB...
Transcript of Inequality and Financial Literacy - EIB...
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European Investment Bank – November 10, 2014
Annamaria Lusardi The George Washington School of Business
Academic Director, Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center (GFLEC)
Inequality and Financial Literacy
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The growing importance of financial literacy
Major changes that increase individuals’ responsibility for their financial well-being
Changes in the pension landscape
• More individual accounts
Changes in the labor markets
• Workers change jobs often • Skill-based wage differentials
Changes in the financial markets
• More complexity • More opportunities to borrow & in large amounts
A new economic landscape
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The “great risk shift”
Risk shift from the government and employers to individuals
How well-equipped are people to make these decisions?
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Big project on financial literacy
1. What is the level of financial literacy among the
population? 2. Are there vulnerable groups? 3. Does financial literacy matter?
• Is it linked to behavior? • More specifically, is it linked to wealth inequality?
Our questions
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Financial Literacy Programme Funded by EIB Bringing together an international team
The United States The Netherlands Germany Italy Sweden Switzerland Spain Portugal Turkey
The Financial Literacy Programme brings together research teams in 9 countries:
Website of the project: http://www.globalfinancialliteracyproject.org/
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First question
• Aim: Assess knowledge of basic concepts, the abc’s of personal finance
• Use three financial literacy questions
How well equipped are people to make financial decisions?
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Measuring financial literacy (I)
“Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2% per year. After 5 years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?”
i) More than $102 ii) Exactly $102 iii) Less than $102 iv) Don’t know v) Refuse to answer
To test numeracy and understanding of interest rates, we asked:
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Measuring financial literacy (II)
“Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1% per year and inflation was 2% per year. After 1 year, with the money in this account, would you be able to buy…”
i) More than today ii) Exactly the same as today iii) Less than today iv) Don`t Know v) Refuse to answer
To test understanding of inflation, we asked:
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Measuring financial literacy (III)
“Do you think the following statement is true or false? Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”
i) True ii) False iii) Don`t Know iv) Refuse to answer
Finally, to test understanding of risk diversification, we asked:
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Financial Literacy around the World (FLat World)
Evidence from 13 countries:
USA The Netherlands Germany Italy Russia Sweden New Zealand Japan Australia France Switzerland Romania Canada
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FLat World
Financial illiteracy is widespread in the population
• Less than half of the population in many countries can answer three basic financial literacy questions
Risk diversification is most difficult concept • Similar pattern of response across countries • Prevalence of “do not know” answers
Gender difference in financial literacy • Women more likely than men to answer “I do not know” to financial
literacy questions
Strikingly similar patterns across countries
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Second question
Who knows the least? • Those with low income/education, immigrants,
those living in rural areas, the elderly, the young and women
Women have lower financial literacy • Need to look closer at the evidence
The young have lower financial literacy • Most data sets have information on respondents 18
and older. New data is available for 15-year olds.
Who are the vulnerable groups?
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Financial knowledge among women • Very robust findings of large gender differences in financial knowledge
• Women are much more likely to say “I do not know”
22%
35%
47%
33%
38%
55%
60%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
US Netherlands Germany Canada
Financial knowledge by gender (% answering 3 Qs correctly)
Women Men
50% 46%
43% 47%
34%
29% 30% 28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
US Netherlands Germany Canada
At least one "don't know" answer, by gender
Women Men
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Gender differences in financial literacy: The Netherlands
83.1
72.0
42.1 35.0
45.9
86.6 81.9
62.0 55.1
29.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Interest Inflation Risk All correct At least 1 DK
The Netherlands
Women Men
Source: 2010 DNB Household Survey
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Our paper: How financially literate are women? An overview and new insights • This patter of response is true in most countries • Provide an in-dept analysis of gender differences in
financial literacy • Look at East-West Germany • Young and old women • Look at other measures of financial literacy • Self-assessed measures of financial literacy • Financial advice: A susbtitute for financial literacy?
Gender differences in financial literacy
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• SAMPLE: DNB Household Panel (DHS), online survey representative of Dutch-speaking households
• We include panel members who are household heads and their partners, age 18 and older
• DESIGN: Financial literacy questions asked twice • First survey (May 2012): Financial literacy questions
including a “Do not know” option • Second survey (June /July 2012): Same questions without
a “Do not know” option • After each question in June/July ask for confidence in the
answer
Work in progress
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May wave: N= 1,748
June/July wave: N= 1,973
Sample for the analysis: complete questionnaire in both waves, N=1,528
Attrition: No significant effects of gender or financial literacy on dropping out after May wave
Learning: Answers to financial literacy do not differ significantly from participants in both waves.
Our sample
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Answers waves 1 & 2, interest question, by gender
91.9 94.6
84.5 91.2
5.0 5.4 7.8 8.8 3.1
7.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
W1 W2 W1 W2
Men Women
Interest
Correct
Incorrect
DK (refuse)
Significant improvement in the probability to give a correct answer for men and women
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Answers waves 1 & 2, inflation question, by gender
89.9 93.8
80.9 87.6
5.4 6.2 7.6 12.4
4.8 11.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
W1 W2 W1 W2
Men Women
Inflation
Correct
Incorrect
DK (refuse)
Significant improvement in the probability to give a correct answer for men and women
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Answers waves 1 & 2, risk question, by gender
62.1
82.3
34.4
73.1
7.6
17.7
9.7
26.9 30.4
54.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
W1 W2 W1 W2
Men Women
Risk
Correct
Incorrect
DK (refuse)
Significant improvement in the probability to give a correct answer for men and women
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61.5
89.7
72.4
52.3
87.4
67.5
38.5
10.3
27.6
47.7
12.6
32.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
incorrect correct don't know incorrect correct don't know
Men Women
Risk
correct
incorrect
Answers in wave 2 conditional on answers in wave 1
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Confidence in wave 2 conditional on being correct, incorrect, or DK in wave 1. Risk diversification
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Confidence cond. Incorrect
Women Men
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Confidence cond. Correct
Women Men
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Confidence cond. Do not know
Women Men
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Gender and financial literacy between waves
Dependent variable = # of correct answers to finlit quest (1) (2) (3) (4) VARIABLES July May July May Female -0.253*** -0.404*** -0.196*** -0.309***
(0.0312) (0.0393) (0.0326) (0.0399) Constant 2.703*** 2.504*** 2.249*** 1.709***
(0.0198) (0.0261) (0.136) (0.176)
Other controls no no yes yes Observations 1,528 1,528 1,528 1,528 R-squared 0.038 0.056 0.106 0.162 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
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Financial literacy & stock market participation
Financial literacy, gender and stock market participation
VARIABLES (1) (2) (3) Financial literacy 0.0541*** 0.0914***
(0.00973) (0.0105) Female -0.137*** -0.0729*** -0.0469**
(0.0207) (0.0213) (0.0212) Constant 0.339*** 0.101 0.145*
(0.0162) (0.0732) (0.0754)
Financial literacy measure na July May
Other controls no yes yes
Observations 1,528 1,528 1,528
R-squared 0.023 0.125 0.146
Robust standard errors in parentheses clustered at the household level *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
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• Gender gap in financial literacy decreases but does not disappear when deleting the “Do not know” option
• Men and women responding “Do not know” have high likelihood of giving a correct answer, but more women said DK in the first place.
• Women are much less confident, even if they answer correctly.
• Confidence can explain a substantial part of the gender gap in financial literacy, but not all.
• Financial literacy and confidence are associated with financial decision making. They account for (part of) the gender gap in stock market participation
Summary of findings so far
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Financial knowledge among the young Compared to other age groups, financial knowledge among the young is very low
13%
22%
28%
34% 38% 38%
42% 43%
50%
55% 54% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Financial knowledge by age in the United States – 2012 US National Financial Capability Study
(% answering 3 questions correctly)
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New data for 15-year-olds around the world
We have important new data
• 2012 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)
• Measuring financial literacy among high school students
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PISA Financial Literacy Assessment
• A group of experts was convened by the OECD to design the 2012 module on financial literacy
• They represented many countries and many stakeholders (treasury departments, central banks, regulators, practitioners, academics)
• Experts worked on the assessment for about two years
A multiple-year project
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Strong performance in financial literacy
Low performance in financial literacy
Average performance of 15-year-olds in
financial literacy
Shanghai-China
Flemish Community (Belgium)
Estonia Australia New Zealand
Czech Republic Poland Latvia
United States France Russian Federation Slovenia Spain Croatia Israel
Slovak Republic Italy
Colombia 375
385
395
405
415
425
435
445
455
465
475
485
495
505
515
525
535
545
555
565
575
585
595
605
Mean score
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625 and above 550 to <625
475 to <550
400 to <475 Less
than 400 points
Financial literacy performance levels
Top performers
Baseline L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
Distribution of student performance
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Top performers in financial literacy, by gender
9.7% of students are top performers in financial literacy (OECD average)
Boys are more likely to be top performers than girls, particularly in New Zealand, Israel, Poland, France and the Flemish Community (Belgium)
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Percentage of low-performing students in financial literacy Across the OECD on average, 15% of students do not reach the baseline level of financial literacy – meaning that they can solve only simple tasks
Boys are more likely to be low performers than girls, particularly in France, Israel, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic
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Are there gender differences in financial literacy?
Italy
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
350 400 450 500 550 600 650
Girl
s' m
ean
scor
e
Boys' mean score
Boys perform better than girls
Girls perform better than boys
On average there are no gender differences (except in Italy) but fewer girls at top and
bottom
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Some important findings
• A lot of the variation in financial literacy is explained by socio-economic background (parent’s income and education)
• We start unequal when it comes to financial literacy and inequality will only grow
• How to provide equality of opportunity early in life?
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Relationship between socio-economic status and financial literacy, mathematics, and reading performance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Esto
nia
Italy
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion
Cro
atia
Aust
ralia
Fl.C
om. (
Belg
ium
)
Pola
nd
Shan
ghai
-Chi
na
Col
ombi
a
Latv
ia
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
OEC
D a
vera
ge-1
3
Isra
el
Spai
n
Fran
ce
Slov
enia
Uni
ted
Stat
es
Slov
ak R
epub
lic
New
Zea
land
Financial literacy Mathematics Reading
Per
cent
age
of v
aria
tion
in p
erfo
rman
ce
expl
aine
d by
soc
io-e
cono
mic
sta
tus
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Why should we care?
• Financial knowledge can be linked to behavior: saving, borrowing, investing, and retirement planning
• Financial knowledge is linked to wealth inequality
• Our paper shows that financial knowledge is one of the main determinants of wealth inequality
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Wealth inequality
OECD/GFLEC Symposium
Source: Saez and Zucman (2014, NBER)
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New work (Clark, Lusardi and Mitchell, 2014)
Use administrative data from large financial institution
• High quality data
Designed survey that had the 3 financial literacy questions
• Higher financial literacy than in the US population
Linked financial literacy to return on 401(k) investments
• Unique data
Those who are more financially literate earn 130 basis points more on their portfolio (adjusted for risk) • Similar evidence is emerging in other papers
Financial knowledge & 401(k) investment performance
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A new model incorporating financial literacy
Assessing how financial knowledge impacts wealth inequality is a hard task
Need a (new) model of saving that incorporates financial knowledge
The model needs to incorporate realistic features of the economy, such as:
–Many sources of risk –Borrowing constraints –Inequality in wages
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Questions we can address
Once we have such a model, it is possible to
Calculate the share of wealth inequality that is due to financial knowledge
Understand the behavior of financial knowledge over time
Assess whether policies or programs improve well-being; for example, what are the effects of adding financial literacy programs in school?
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Mechanics
Income inequality
Financial knowledge inequality
Wealth inequality
Incentives to save raise the rate of return on saving trough financial
knowledge accumulation
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Fin. knowledge and wealth inequality
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Summary of findings
Many reasons to save but the most important engine of wealth inequality may be financial knowledge
From 30 to 40% of wealth inequality can be attributed to financial knowledge
Very important to start equal at the beginning of working life: Add financial literacy in school?
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Use framework to study effects of adding fin. literacy in schools
Increase the endowment of financial knowledge for everyone
We find large welfare benefits: High school dropouts would need 82% more initial wealth to make them as well off as with higher starting values of financial literacy
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Final considerations
• Income and wealth inequality have risen
• Financial knowledge is an important mechanism in the transmission of income to wealth inequality
• Financial education provides welfare benefits, particularly in a world where responsability for retirement savings is shifted to workers
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46
Philadelphia Los Angeles
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Northampton
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Groningen Amsterdam
Braga Madrid
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Istanbul
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Tianjin
Turin
Oxford
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Sao Paulo
Vienna
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Wellington
Washington D.C.
GFLEC’s global network: Ongoing projects around the world
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Experimental Economics
Psychology
Business
Economics
Linguistics Sociology Financial Literacy
Our approach is multidisciplinary
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Entrepreneurs
Financial Literacy
Maximizing our potential through entrepreneurship
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Thanks to our funder
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Thanks to Lecture Series Supporters
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Thank you!
Annamaria Lusardi Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center (GFLEC) E-mail: [email protected] Blog: http://annalusardi.blogspot.com/ Twitter: @A_Lusardi