Industry Trends for ADAS & Safety Systems...Average OEM ADAS Windshield: $1,300 ‐$1,650* 6% of...
Transcript of Industry Trends for ADAS & Safety Systems...Average OEM ADAS Windshield: $1,300 ‐$1,650* 6% of...
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Presented by: Jack Rozint, Mitchell InternationalTools Workgroup – Chuck Olsen, AirPro
OEM Procedures – Jake Rodenroth, asTechNew Technician – Darrell Amberson, LaMettry ’s
Emerging Technologies CommitteeIndustry Trends for ADAS & Safety Systems
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Please indicate which stakeholder group you represent:
13%
2%
5%
10%
2%
30%
7%
10%
22%1. Repairer 2. Insurance3. OEM4. Supplier5. Salvage6. Consultant7. Education8. Associations 9. Other
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In 5 years do you believe that the total U.S. Collision Repair Industry revenue will be:
3%
11%
15%
23%
48%1. Higher by more than 10%2. Higher by less than 10%3. About the same4. Lower by less than 10%5. Lower by more than 10%
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2010Malibu LT
2018Malibu LT
Forward Collision Warning ‐ √Front & Rear Parking Sensors ‐ √Rear Backup Camera ‐ √Lane Departure Warning ‐ √Front Automatic Braking ‐ √Rear Cross Traffic Alert ‐ √Adaptive Cruise Control ‐ √Blind Spot Monitor ‐ √Pedestrian Detection ‐ √Aluminum Hood & Suspension Components ‐ √Number of Airbags 6 10
Convenience & Safety Advancements
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Convenience and Safety Advancements2018 Chevy Malibu2010 Chevy Malibu
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2010 Chevy Malibu LSExample Repair: Replace Front Bumper cover, absorber, rebar, grilles, assuming a center front end hit.
Total Cost = $1,651.74
2010 Chevy Malibu LSExample Repair: Replace Front Bumper cover, absorber, rebar, grilles, assuming a center front end hit.
Total Cost = $1,651.74
2018 Chevy Malibu LSSame repair but this vehicle is equipped with adaptive cruise control, front parking sensors, parallel parking sensors, and airbag sensors that require replacement after a collision.
Total Cost = $3,627.13
2018 Chevy Malibu LSSame repair but this vehicle is equipped with adaptive cruise control, front parking sensors, parallel parking sensors, and airbag sensors that require replacement after a collision.
Total Cost = $3,627.13
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2010 Chevy MalibuAverage Repair Cost in 2012 :
$2,539.76
2016 Chevy MalibuAverage Repair Cost in 2018:
$4,098.94*Note – Does not adjust for CPI, Labor rates, Total Loss %, etc.Source: Mitchell
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Cost of Scanning & Calibration
Source: Mitchell based on 30k estimate lines related to scanning
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Database Challenges for Scanning
OEMs have very limited warranty times on diagnostics procedures
Time studies are challengingo Type of tool or system causes wide variation in timeo Time on same make/model varies based on # of installed ECU’s o What is included in time to scan?
Electronic repairs are complexo Time to researcho Time to troubleshoot
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Windshield ReplacementAverage OEM ADAS Windshield: $1,300 ‐ $1,650*
6% of windshields replaced are equipped with some form of ADAS
This number is expected to double every year for the foreseeable future
Many manufacturers require the use of OEM glass which is contributing significantly along with calibration requirements to the rising cost of windshield replacements.
*Source: AAA
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2018 Honda Accord Calibration Requirements
Lane Watch Camera SystemLane Watch Camera is removed/installed or replacedPassenger side rear view mirror is removed/installed or replaced Passenger side rear view mirror cover is removed/installed or replaced Passenger side door position is adjusted Passenger side door is removed/installed or replaced
BSI RadarAfter removing/Installing or replacing a BSI radar unit After repairing or replacing body panels where BSI radar unit mountsDo not repair bumper cover near BSI radar units
Multi Function Camera• If camera unit is removed/installed or replaced • If windshield is removed/installed or replaced • If LKAS or ACC lamps indicate a potential problem • If DTC’s indicate a problem with system • If vehicle is involved in a collision • If SRS is deployed• Only use OEM glass for replacement in vehicles equipped with multi‐purpose cameras
• Should be performed after wheel alignment if neededMillimeter Wave Radar• If Radar is removed/installed or replaced • If ACC warning light is illuminated • After collision damage to front end • After structural damage anywhere on the vehicle • After SRS deployment • Do not repair bumper cover near radar • May require “special” grill or emblem
Source: https://s3.amazonaws.com/culturesync‐syndicate/Guild21/Guild21_12‐14‐2017_ADASPresentation.pdf
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2000 2010 2020Source: ETI/MARTEC
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Audi zFAS Piloted Driving
Depending on the selected options, the zFAS receives the data to do this from up to five radar sensors, six cameras, twelve ultrasound sensors and the laser scanner
In an impending lateral collision at more than 25 km/h (15.5 mph), the suspension actuators of the optional Audi AI active suspension raise the body on the side exposed to the danger by up to 80 millimeters (3.1 in) within half a second. The other vehicle therefore hits the car in an even more impact‐resistant zone.
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Electric Vehicle Collision Repair Considerations*
•Locate the hybrid/electric vehicle system components and identify if there is any damage to it.•Check to see what is behind the damaged panel, and if its wires, connectors, modules, and/or battery is damaged.•Understand service requirements for systems (e.g., cooling systems service/filling).•Select the correct air conditioning system service equipment and oils to exclude the systems contaminations.•Avoid towing/moving on road wheels to avoid possible hybrid or electric vehicle system damage or shock hazard.•Know if there are any structural variations.
* Source: I‐CAR
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Percentage of Global Population Living in Urban Areas
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Mobility as defined by the Oxford English Dictionary: The ability to move or be moved freely and easily
Mobility as defined by the Oxford English Dictionary: The ability to move or be moved freely and easily
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36% of people believe autonomous driving will be the dominant form of transport in
10 years’ time.
Almost two thirds (65%) favor the idea of enhanced protection against thieves; e.g
fingerprint recognition technology
More than half (58%) currently do not trust
driverless cars.
Real time traffic information is the most popular (66%) anticipated feature of connected cars.
31% like the ability to personalize car features through software updates.
47% are currently concerned about driverless car hacking.
Source: Gemalto.com
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Forecasted Industry Frequency and Severity
41
http://www.kpmg‐institutes.com/content/dam/kpmg/manufacturing‐institute/pdf/2017/collision‐parts‐whitepaper.pdf
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United States Collision Repair Market
42
Source: Grand View Research
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United States Collision Industry Revenue Growth
43
Source: IBIS World – showing 2018 industry revenue of $47B
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Conclusions
There should be plenty of work for collision repairers in the coming years
Collision frequency is likely to continue to decline with ADAS advancements
Average repair cost is likely to continue to rise based on vehicle complexity
The type of repair work is changing:
Metal/Frame/Refinish => Electrical/Software
Modes of transportation are changing:
Private driven auto => Ride Share/Mobility as a Service
Liability for collisions will shift:
Man (the driver) => Machine (the auto pilot/autonomous system)