Industry Perspective on AGI/MASINT*

Staffing

December 2006Greg Masse

*Advanced Geospatial Intelligence/Measurement and Signature Intelligence

2DEC’06

Outline

General Labor Trends

MASINT Labor Observations

Final Observations

3DEC’06

Labor Shortfall By 2012, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says that

nearly 50 percent of the workforce will become eligible for retirement.

Shortage of available skilled workers may exceed 10 million by 2010.

Within the next 10 years, 18 million jobs will require individuals with degrees.

At current graduation levels, the Employment Policy Foundation predicts a shortfall of 6 million.

4DEC’06

Labor Shortfall (continued)

20 percent of this country’s large established companies will be losing 40 percent of their top-level talent in the next five years.

The replacement pool of 35-44 year-olds will decline by 15 percent during the same period.

Of the 20 fastest growing occupations listed in the 2004-05 Occupational Outlook Handbook, all of the corporate positions are in information technology.

Project Manager is #1

- Development Dimensions International, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

5DEC’06

Employee Loyalty

According to a new Society of Human Resources Management survey

75 percent of American employees and 82 percent of American executives are

looking for a new job.

6DEC’06

Where Do We Find AGI/MASINT Candidates for Industry? 20 years ago, most would have come out of the

government Cleared Trained Technically focused

10 years ago, about half would have come from government and the remainder from recent college grads

Today Experienced MASINT personnel often come from within industry The government pool is shrinking and graying fast Majority are recent grads or changing jobs for a variety of reasons Clearances are an industry nightmare and limiting factor

7DEC’06

Where Do We Find Candidates?February 2005 – April 2006 SAIC Web site:

candidates applied via saic.com or resumes found in Web resume

Internet: resumes from job boards, personal home pages, conference attendee lists, published articles, etc.

Open House/Job Fair: candidates attend this event

Campus: new/recent graduates or interns

Agency: search firms

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Hires by Source

8DEC’06

2006 Graduate Starting Salaries

Chemical engineering ($55,900)

Computer engineering ($54,877)

Electrical/electronics and communications engineering, ($52,899)

Mechanical engineering ($50,672)

Computer science ($50,046)

Accounting ($45,723)

Economics/finance, including banking ($45,191)

Civil engineering ($44,999)

Business administration/management ($39,850)

Marketing/marketing management, including marketing research ($36,260)

The following majors have the highest salaries paid to 2005-06 graduates. Average salary offers in parentheses.

National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE).

9DEC’06

Retaining AGI/MASINT Personnel

More difficult to retain qualified MASINT personnel today Long-term outlook for AGI/MASINT employment is unclear –

especially for younger folks

Escalating salaries and competition outside of MASINT

Paradox of better AGI/MASINT exploitation tools Lower morale based on increasing sophistication of tools that

emphasize production and remove the “science = fun” part

Greater focus on IT contribution over science and phenomenology

If we make the work seem mindless, we lose MASINT expertise developed over years

10DEC’06

Retaining AGI/MASINT Personnel (continued)

Shrinking R&D budgets Industry invests little in basic research – limited commercial

applications of AGI/MASINT government funding favors shorter timelines with emphasis on

transition to ops Looking more to academia for R&D but clearances are typically

a problem Myth of “low hanging fruit”

Sad irony: real-world problems are more difficult and the science more demanding

11DEC’06

The Contract/Hiring Dilemma Deeply Affects Morale Problem:

Assemble a first-rate, cleared, trained MASINT team Keep together for a limited-life contract Develop new work, new customers to sustain the team Place employees in other work if unsuccessful at receiving new

MASINT tasking We win work based on the quality of our resumes

Attracting and retaining skilled people is difficult without assurances of long term employment

Clearances – what can be done? Training is critical to replace aging MASINT workforce

Customers often mention a lack of local scientists and phenomenolgists

12DEC’06

Cycle time for 105 Top Secret Cases Closed During September ‘06:

Initial Cases –

504 calendar-day average from submittal to Final Clearance Authorization (n = 25 Cases) 16 months, 24 days

Periodic Reinvestigations –

470 calendar-day average from submittal to Final Clearance Authorization (n = 80 Cases) 15 months, 20 days

Combined Average –

478 days (15 months, 28 days)

TS Clearance Cycle Times Survey Results September 2006

13DEC’06

Timeliness Comparison - Feb ‘06 to Sep ‘06

Average Days to Close (Submittal to Posting)

Top Secret:

February 2006 –

419 calendar day average from submittal to Final Clearance Authorization (142 cases)

September 2006 –

478 calendar day average from submittal to Final Clearance Authorization (80 cases)

Worsened by 59 days

14DEC’06

MASINT Training Requirements

As senior MASINT personnel retire from industry and government over the next 5 years, MASINT training becomes increasing critical to mission success MASINT skills are unique and require formal training, science or

engineering background, unique mission understanding, and mentoring

Training needs are different for each: Skill – Tasking Collection Processing Exploitation Dissemination

(TCPED) MASINT sub-discipline and category Age group

Bottom line: training is more important than ever to sustain the AGI/MASINT core

15DEC’06

Age Profile of MASINT Personnel

Veterans Born 1922-1943 (Age 63-84)

“Manhattan Project”

Born 1977+ (Age ?-29)

“9/11”

Summary of ages over six SAIC MASINT DivisionsNote: four distinct generations in the workplace today

3 percent6 percent

37 percent54 percent

Baby Boomers Born 1943-1960 (Age 46-63)

“Cold War”

Generation Xers Born 1960–1980(Age 26-46)

Generation Xers Born 1960–1980(Age 26-46)

Generation Nexters

“Gulf War”

16DEC’06

Final Observations

The first wave of boomers is now reaching retirement age Represents the most experienced MASINT scientists and

phenomenologists – primary in traditional MASINT systems Retention techniques - provide opportunities for personal growth,

involvement, and public recognition

Bulk of MASINT workforce is now Gen Xers More technology savvy and appreciate diversity and pragmatism Top things wanted in a job:

Positive relationships with colleagues Interesting work Continuous opportunities for learning

Gen Nexters Although small part of the current MASINT workforce are a primary

concern for MASINT staffing and training Reflect a mix of values of both previous generations

The NeXt Revolution/Davies-Black

SOURCES: The Leone Resource Group

17DEC’06

Gen Xers - The Primary MASINT Workers in Industry

Gen Xers would change jobs for 51 percent to telecommute 61 percent of Gen X women for more flexible hours 77 percent for increased intellectual stimulation

What Gen Xers Do Not Care About Recognition

Very Low Salary

Third from last A signing bonus will not keep someone at work

Power and prestige Dead last

Shelton Survey of 1200 Gen Xers