Deadlline for 2030 Energy-Climate PAckage Moves to October 2014 - Industrial Groups Reactions
Industry and the 2030 energy and climate package
description
Transcript of Industry and the 2030 energy and climate package
Industry and the 2030 energy and climate package
Will there be a competitive low carbon
industry in Europe in 2030 ?
26/04/2013, Ecofys seminar, introduction to the
debate
Maarten Neelis
© ECOFYS | | 22/05/2013 Maarten Neelis
> Share of renewable energy in
2010 at 10.6%, country plans add
up to 20% in 2020
> More challenging to reach the
20% energy efficiency target
> GHG reduction target likely to be
overshot by 2020 (resulting in low
CO2 prices at the moment)
EU on track with two of the 20/20/20 targets
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EU27 to overshoot its 2020 GHG target
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Meeting 20% savings target will be challenging
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National plans for 2020 do add up to 20% RE
22/05/2013 Maarten Neelis
2010
11.6%
2020
20.7%
(ECN/EEA, 2011)
42% electricity (o.w.41% wind)
46% heating, cooling (o.w. 78% biomass)
12% transport
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Framework for 2030 and thereafter
22/05/2013
The Commission is currently setting up the 2030 energy
and climate policy framework:
2011
2015 2050
March 2011:
Publication of the EU Low
Carbon Roadmap for 2050
with 2030 and 2050 GHG
reduction targets
March 2013:
Publication of the Green Paper
for the 2030 framework;
start of public consultation
End of 2013: Possible
publication of draft
legislation on the
2030 framework
2015: Deadline international
climate change deal; the
Commission would want to have
some detail on 2030 framework
to strengthen negotiation
position
2014: Change of European
Commission, details on 2030
framework will most likely be
passed onto the new
Commission
2013 2020 2030
2020: End of 2020
package, 2030
package must be
ready before then
2030: GHG
reduction target
40% vs. 1990
levels ??
2050: GHG
reduction target
80–95% vs. 1990
levels ??
Maarten Neelis6
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Policy Framework for 2030 and thereafter
Raw Materials Manufacturing Distribution Markets
Energy Efficiency Directive
Emissions Trading
Industrial Emissions Directive
EcoDesign & Energy Labeling
Energy Efficiency Directive
Emissions Trading
Industrial Emissions Directive
Energy Efficiency Directive
Emissions Trading
Industrial Emissions Directive
Fuel Quality Directive
White paper DG MOVE
Renewable Energy
Directive
Renewable Energy
Directive
Horizon 2020
Horizon 2020
Horizon 2020
Horizon 2020
22/05/2013 Maarten Neelis
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EU ETS needs structural reform
EC Communication 14 Nov 2012
The state of the European carbon market in 2012
Options for reform:
a)Increasing the EU reduction target to 30% in 2020
b)Retiring a number of allowances in phase 3
c)Early revision of the annual linear reduction factor
d)Extension of the scope of the EU ETS to other sectors
e)Limit access to international credits
f)Discretionary price management mechanisms
Long term outlook on ambitious GHG target (i.e. beyond 2020) remains key
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The 2030 package: questions from the Green Paper
General – which lessons from 2020 are most important
Targets:
Which targets and at which level (Europe,
Member States, sectors)
Instruments:
Which policy instruments to ensure effective policy package
Competitiveness and security of
supply
Which elements of the package should be strengthened to
promote job creation, growth an
competitiveness
Capacity and distributional
aspects
How should the new framework ensure
equitable distribution of effort
among Member States
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Three key questions
>How can competitiveness of EU industry be
ensured under continued decarbonisation?
>How can renewable energy and energy efficiency
be promoted with or without dedicated targets?
>How can the industrial breakthroughs that are
needed to ensure deep reductions by 2050 be
advanced?
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Competitiveness – leakage already happening?
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The net change in territorial emissions (1990-2008) together with the change in the net emission transfer between each country and non-Annex B countries (1990-2008). Source: Peters et al., growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 -2008, PNAS, published ahead of print 25 April, 2011
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Competitiveness – does policy really matter?
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Multiple targets – the fundamental problem
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Multiple targets – the clear need
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Reasons for specific targets:
>Renewables / efficiency are the backbone of
decarbonisation
>National targets policies trigger local action
>High renewable energy shares and energy efficiency
have economic and other benefits
>Cost reduction and learning
>Trigger innovation for less-mature technologies
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Innovation and investment needed, but how …
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Source: Unfold the future. The forest fibre industry 2050 roadmap to a low-carbon bio-economy, CEPI, 2011
Illustrative model for CO2 emissions reduction between 1990 and 2050: A excluding and B including electrification. Source: Paving the way to 2050, the ceramic industry roadmap, Cerame-Unie, 2012
Source: European chemistry for growth, CEFIC, 2013, supported by Ecofys
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Three key questions
>How can competitiveness of EU industry be
ensured under continued decarbonisation?
>How can renewable energy and energy efficiency
be promoted with or without dedicated targets?
>How can the industrial breakthroughs that are
needed to ensure deep reductions by 2050 be
advanced?
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Thank you for your attention
Ecofys Netherlands B.V.
Kanaalweg 15G
3526 KL Utrecht
The Netherlands
T: +31 (0)30 662-3241
I: www.ecofys.com
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