Industry Analysis ( Pharma)

DR. D. Y. PATIL DEPARTMENT

OF BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

Project On

Security Analysis & Portfolio Management (SAPM)

PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY

Submitted to:

Prof. Rupali Patil

Submitted by

Ramchandra Kumbhar

Roll No.120

Nishaad Deshmukh

Roll No. 90

M.B.A (FINANCE)

SEM IV

DR.D.Y.Patil Department OF Business Management

Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

The leading players in the Indian pharmaceutical market comprise both India-

based and MNCs. This report provides an insight to the current state of Indian

pharmaceutical industry as well as the evolving trends. This report analyzes the Indian

pharmaceutical industry in light of market size, key drivers and resistors, trends and

competitive positioning in the global market. It also analyzes the competitive landscape of the

industry based on financial and operational (field force strength, R&D spend, exposure to

chronic therapeutic areas and the US pharmaceutical market) parameters.

This report also compares and analyzes the competitive positioning of Indian pharmaceutical

market in the context of global pharmaceutical market. The report also includes profiles of

the top ten companies in the industry and also involves a brief summary of top 11 to 20

players.

The top 10 companies in the Indian pharmaceutical industry were assessed on following

parameters:

• market share in the Indian pharmaceutical market;

• marketed products and therapeutic focus;

• growth strategies and major acquisitions and divestments in this market;

• key partnerships and alliances formed by these companies;

• business-related strengths and weaknesses of these companies, and insights into the

opportunities and threats facing them.

The Indian pharmaceutical market was valued at $7,743m in 2008, an increase of 4.0% over

2007. Business Insights anticipates that Indian pharmaceutical market will grow at a faster

pace than the global pharmaceutical market, approximately at a CAGR of 13.2% during

2009-14 to reach a total value of $15,490m in 2014.

India has emerged as a key destination for global pharmaceutical companies due to its high

growth prospects led by ageing population, changing disease profile, and improving patent

regime and socio-economic conditions.


The Indian pharmaceutical market is highly competitive and fragmented with the top 10

players accounting for 36.1% of the total R&H sales in 2008.

India started to comply with World Trade Organization's Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (WTO-TRIPS) agreement and recognized product patents with the amendment of the Indian Patent Act in January 2005. Indian companies plan to capitalize on Japanese government initiatives to promote generic drugs to reduce healthcare costs.

Inadequacies in the new patent regime: Provisions related to Sec 3(d) of the Patent

(Amendment) Act 2005 prevent ever-greening of drug patents as it does not allow

patenting new uses of an existing drug. In addition, compulsory licensing allows Indian

players to continue manufacturing generics of patented products for export to underdeveloped

countries.

Lack of infrastructure: Problems related to frequent power cuts and lack of proper transport

infrastructure will slowdown the growth of the industry.

Limited funds: Limited funding from FIs, venture capitalists and the government may

slowdown the development of biotechnology industry in India.

Regulatory hurdles: Increasing due diligence and compliance with standards leads to cost

overrunning and delay in new product launches.

Intense competition: Strong pricing competition among local manufacturers leads to low

margins and limited capital to support R&D. Competition will further intensify from big

generic players participating in the Indian market to leverage the cost advantage and large

resource pool.


PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY

Before Independence

Indian pharmaceutical industry has grown over a period of time and has seen many ups and

down during its evolution. The architect of the Indian pharmaceutical industry would be

Acharya P.C.Ray. In the year 1901 Acharya P.C.Ray founded Bengal Chemicals and

Pharmaceuticals Works Ltd. It started by making drugs from indigenous materials and then

went on to manufacture quality chemicals, drugs, pharmaceuticals and employed local

technology, skills and resources. But prior to independence bulk of the drugs were imported

and very negligible quantity was manufactured in India.


After Independence

Just after Independence many Multinational Companies set base in India as trading

companies and later moved to repacking of finished formulations within the country. They

then progressed to manufacture of bulk drugs. The turnover of Indian pharmaceutical

industry was around 10 cores then and the over reliance on imports continued. The

Multinational Corporations controlled 70 to 80 per cent of the market. The prices of the

medicines were very high; quiet out of reach for the Indian population .Indian pharmaceutical

industry was still regulated by product patent regime, a legacy of the British colonial era. The

government of India took a historic decision by introducing the Patent Act 1970 that allowed

only process patent and put an end to product patent in the field of food, agrochemicals and

pharmaceuticals.

This development came as a major boost to the Indian entrepreneurs to establish

manufacturing units. The Patent Act 1970 legalized "reverse engineering" and Indian

companies started manufacturing medicines at a cheaper rate than Multinational Companies.

It helped the country break free from the curbs imposed by monopoly

Post 2005

As part of India's commitment to WTO, India issued the patent ordinance, to recognize foreign product patents from January 1, 2005, the conclusion of a 10 year process. Under these circumstances Indian pharmaceutical manufacturers would not be able to manufacture patented drugs. To meet the challenges of this new initiative, the industry started probing new business models

Some of the features of the new model included

Contract research (drug discovery and clinical trials).

Contract manufacturing.

The focus of the industry shifted from process improvisation to drug discovery and research and development.


Future Trends

The Pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow at a rate of 10.8 per cent and

reach $168 billion in the year 2009.

India and China are expected to account for nearly 40 per cent of the outsourced

market for dynamic pharmaceutical constituents, finished dosage formulations

and intermediates.

Experts believe the combined effect of increase in business due to many premium drugs

coming of patent and the increased confidence of international companies on India due to the

product patent regime would mean a boom for the pharmaceutical ind

WORLD TOPS PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES

RANKING CORPORATION MARKET SHARE

1 Pfizer 7.5%

2 GSK Parma 6.9%

3 Merck’s Pharmaceutical 5.1%

4 AstraZeneca 4.4%

5 BMS 4.1%

6 Novartis 3.9%

7 Johnson 3.8%


SWOT Analysis

Strengths

Cost Effective

Strong Manufacturing Base

Availability of high quality skilled workforce.

Excellent marketing and distribution network

Diverse ecosystem

Weaknesses

Less investment in research and development

Lack of coordination between industry and academia.

Negligible expenditure on healthcare in the country.

Manufacture of fake and low quality medicines bring

Opportunities

Increased export potential

Marketing ties ups with multinational companies to sell their products in domestic

market.

Immense scope to position India as a centre for international clinical trials.

Key player in global pharmaceutical R&D.

Export of generic drugs to developed markets.

Threats

Product patent regime is a major threat to domestic industry unless the industry takes

up R&D initiative aggressively.

Drug Price Control Order puts undue pressure on product prices, affecting the

profitability of the pharmaceutical companies.


The new MRP based excise duty regime threatens the business of smaller

pharmaceutical companies.

RANBAXY PHARMACEUTICAL

Sector: Pharmaceuticals

Home Country: India

Listed On: Bombay Stock Exchange & National Stock Exchange, Mumbai

Scrip ID: Ranbaxy Scrip Code: 500359 Face value: Rs.10

Day's High / Low 446.90 / 432.55Previous Close / Open 448.15 / 445.00Wtd. Avg Price 438.86Total Traded Value (Cr.) 8.06TTQ / 2W Avg Q (Lakh) 1.84 / 1.90Circuit Limits NAMkt. Cap. Full / Free Float (Cr.) 18,584 / 7,433

Source: Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)

Company Profile

Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited, headquartered in India, is an integrated, research based,

international pharmaceutical company producing a wide range of quality, affordable generic

medicines, trusted by healthcare professionals and patients across geographies.

Ranbaxy’s continued focus on R&D has resulted in several approvals in developed markets

and significant progress in New Drug Discovery Research. The Company’s foray into Novel

Drug Delivery Systems has led to proprietary "platform technologies", resulting in a number

of products under development. The Company is serving its customers in over 125 countries

and has an expanding international portfolio of affiliates, joint ventures and alliances, ground

operations in 46 countries and manufacturing operations in 7 countries.

Though anti-infectives remains its core business (61% of revenues), Ranbaxy`s R&D thrust

has resulted in the company having the most enviable R&D pipeline in the country.


Moreover, Ranbaxy`s foray into Novel Drug Delivery Systems (NDDS) has helped it expand

its business (Cipro-OD).

Ranbaxy was perhaps the first domestic pharmaceutical to make a systematic attempt

to reach to the world's biggest pharmaceutical markets. This push overseas came about even

while the domestic market was growing fast, and held considerable promise. In the domestic

market, Ranbaxy was, and is, among the largest companies with a powerful presence in

antibiotics — the largest therapeutic segment in India. Towards end-1990s, Ranbaxy had a

presence in the US — the largest and possibly most lucrative pharmaceutical market —

Western Europe and China. In the recent past, Ranbaxy launched operations in Brazil, among

the world's bigger markets, and bought out Bayer AG's generic pharmaceutical business

(drugs that have lost patent protection and are, thereby, open to all manufacturers) in Ge

Stock Analysis


Price Movement



The Price Movement of Ranbaxy indicates that there is increase share price of Share from

December 2008 to December 2009. In 2008 the share 0f Ranbaxy share is decreasing because

in the first quarter company profit was decrease. Ranbaxy Labs has shown decent growth in

the past five years. The company has presence in all major markets across the world. The

recent fall in the stock price is mainly due to bad news about the company in recent times.

Things should start improving after three months as the stock bottoms out. Cash rich

Japanese parent will support Ranbaxy and the company will offer decent returns. Investors

can start accumulating the stock in range Rs 200 – 220.

Performance Chart


RPI's net profit in 2000 was $1.18 million against a loss of $3.34 million the previous year

(RPI's performance in 2001 has not yet been announced). The company is likely to rake in

significant profits in the years to come. In this context, it is significant that Ranbaxy's export


turnover in 2001 was marginally higher than the domestic turnover. Export sales are likely to

grow by over 20 per cent in the next few years against a 10 per cent improvement in domestic

sales. Realisations per unit of sale are likely to be significantly higher in the export market,

especially the US. Compared to its peers such as Cipla, Ranbaxy earns a disappointing 15-16

per cent on the capital deployed in the business. This is largely because it has taken the

company a while to generate returns in its overseas markets. But now that Ranbaxy seems to

have turned the corner, the return on the capital deployed in its business should improve

dramatically over the next few years.

There was considerable increase in revenue due to FTF products from the US

market. Revenue increased from Canadian market due to low base and more cost

containment measures. The company has been stepping up day-one launches,

intensifying its focus on tendering business and restructuring sales and marketing

operations in some countries of Europe. Emerging markets portfolio continued to

perform well, led by strong growth in India, CIS, Romania, South Africa and Brazil.

Emerging market accounted for 54% of total revenue.

Ownership Pattern

Ownership Pattern

Shareholding Pattern %

Promoters35%

17%


FIIS

Institutions23%

Public & Others25%


RANBAXY STOCK ANALYSIS

Ranbaxy Labs good for long term investment. The company has a robust growth model and the recent fall in valuations makes the stock even more attractive. There are some issues which are a big concern for the company, however, as the stock markets will stabilize, the Ranbaxy stock will also bounce back. There are three major bad

One major issue in mind of investors in the exit of promoters. Promoters have sold their stake to Pharmaceutical major Daiichi from Japan. Technical experts believe the issues in US markets and pending litigations are behind the promoters exit. The future of Ranbaxy will now depend on the plans Japanese company has for Ranbaxy. The parent company hasn’t given any solid statement about the future plans for Ranbaxy. Once the announcements are made, investor sentiment will turn positive.

Mutual funds have been net sellers in the counter for the past few months. This is also an alarming sign for the company’s’ future stock valuation. However exit of mutual funds could be due to the recent stock market melt-down.

US operations had a significant share in company’s sales during the past three years. FDA banned certain drugs made by the company, but soon the ban was lifted. The company management says that the drug cartel in US is behind the issue. The company has also asked the government to support its case with US regulator.

Some analysts were even talking about the Japanese company Daiichi backing-off from the deal after the recent fall in stock markets. The valuation of the company has fallen sharply


and the Japanese company has paid a premium price to promoters. In addition, the stake acquired from stock holders was also at a premium to market price.

Now that the shareholders have started receiving money from Karvy, some buying should come at lower levels. Karvy delayed the payments and has paid additional interest to the shareholders (nearly Rs 5 per share).

Ranbaxy Labs has shown decent growth in the past five years. The company has presence in all major markets across the world.

The stock used to be a safe bet for last many years. Things haven’t changed in terms of the business of the company; however, much has changed in the stock markets. Investors are worried about the future of the company. And they have a reason to worry; the stock hasn’t offered the returns everyone expected

Ranbaxy shares fall on Q1 loss, bleak outlook (April 27, 2009)

Shares in leading Indian drug maker Ranbaxy Laboratories fell as much as 9 percent on

Monday after it posted a huge first-quarter loss and forecast a second year of losses, hit by

derivatives losses and falling revenue following a U.S. import ban.

Ranbaxy, in which Japan's Daiichi Sankyo last year bought a controlling 64 percent stake,

said late on Friday it expected net losses of about $150 million in 2009 and also said revenue

would fall 9 percent to $1.4 billion.

The company, which has about $1.4 billion in outstanding hedges, booked for losses of 9.18

billion rupees ($184 million) in its first quarter ended March. It is also weighed down by

troubles in the U.S. market and price pressures Europe.

Bottom Line

We expect Ranbaxy to regain its pricing power and resume to growth for the

years 2010 onwards, after the difficult year 2005 and beginning of 2006.


Therefore our EPS estimates assume that Ranbaxy will be able to earn an EPS in 2010

about as high as 2004 and that EPS will grow at about 10% from then onwards.

We put our P/E ratio estimate at 18 for Ranbaxy, because the company certainly has

the potential to grow, but it is growing much slower, than for example the IT service

providers and its earnings are more volatile, as its margins can be under significant

pressure.

Therefore our reasonable P/E ratio for 2010 is 22, which is above the market

average, but below that of pure growth stocks.

DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES (RDY)

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY) is the number one pharmaceutical company in India in terms of profitability. It's consolidated revenues decreased by 23% to Rs. 50,006 million in 2007–08 from Rs. 65,095 million in 2006–07. The reasons being, first, no major US generics launch in 2007-08 as compared to 2006–07, when its generic sales were around $750 million overall, more than half of its total revenues due to launch of Simvastatin and Finasteride, the generic versions of Zocor and Proscar respectively of Merck. Second, pricing pressures in the German generics market as well as supply chain problems with betapharm’s, Dr.Reddy's German subsidiary, contract manufacturer, Salutas. Third, the company’s Custom Pharmaceutical Services (CPS) business out of Mexico was also hindered by supply chain constraints in the beginning of 2007–08. However, both these supply chain constraints were subsequently resolved by migrating the manufacturing base to Dr. Reddy’s facility in India. And fourth, weakening of the US dollar vis-à-vis the rupee. In 2007-08 Dr.Reddy's invested a total of Rs. 6,293 million on creating new manufacturing and R&D capacities making their generics manufacturing facilities one of the largest in Asia. Dr. Reddy's is also pursuing growth in the relatively untapped biogenerics market. At the beginning of 2008, the company already produced and sold 2 different biogenerics in India and had plans to add one drug per year over the next 8 years.

Performance Chart


http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Generic_Drugs_(Biogenerics_and_Biosimilars)

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/US_dollar

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Merck


Business Overview

Dr. Reddy's produces branded products to treat cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, inflammation and bacterial infection, all major growth categories in terms of demand for medications. It also produces Active pharmaceutical ingredients (API)'s and intermediates and finished dosage forms and biologics products and markets them globally, with a focus on India, the United States, Europe and Russia. The company is vertically integrated and uses many of the API's in its branded products. It conducts New Chemical Element drug discovery research in the areas of metabolic disorders and cardiovascular indications at it's research facilities in Atlanta (USA) and Hyderabad (India). In 2007 it became one of the top 5 generic manufacturers by revenue.

Business and Financial Metrics


http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Active_pharmaceutical_ingredients_(API)?action=edit

http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Dr._Reddy%27s_Laboratories_%28RDY%29?action=edit&section=2

In the quarter ended December 31 2008, the total revenue increased to Rs. 18.4 billion as

against Rs. 12.3 billion in Q3 FY2008 reporting an increase of 49%. The increase is mainly

due to the launch of the authorized generic version of GlaxoSmithKline’s migraine drug

Imitrex in November 2008[10], RDY being the only generic manufacturer of the drug in U.S.

From FY2007 to FY2008, the total revenue decreased from Rs 65,095.1 Mn to Rs 50,005.6

Mn by 23.18% and net profit also showed a decline of 49.84% from Rs 9326.8 Mn to Rs

4,678 Mn. The decline in the net profit was greater than that in total revenue due to an

increase of 43% in the research and development cost from Rs. 2,463 million in 2006–07 to

Rs. 3,533 million in 2007–08. From FY2005 to FY2007, the total revenue grew from Rs

19,519.4 Mn to Rs 65,095.1 Mn, at average annual rate of over 190%. The net profit for the

same period grew from Rs 211.2 Mn to Rs 9,326.8 Mn, at average annual rate of over 650%.

←

Comparison of Ranbaxy & Dr.Reddy on the basis of EPS


http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Total_revenue

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Net_profit

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Net_profit

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/GlaxoSmithKline

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Generic

http://www.wikinvest.com/image/RDY1.bmp

Earnings per share (EPS) are the earnings returned on the initial investment amount. The EPS of Ranbaxy in December 2009 was Rs.4.43 where as EPS of Dr.Reddy is 9.89. In indicates that share price of Dr.Reddy is high as Compared to Ranbaxy .In the first quarter financial year 2009-2010 the Ranbaxy has showing losses.

Comparison of Ranbaxy & Dr.Reddy on the basis of P/E Ratio


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment

P/E ratios all defined as:

The Price Earning Share of Dr.Reddy was Rs.26.12 in the year 2009 Where as Ranbaxy is nil. If the Price Earnings ratio is high it indicates negative impact for Company. If The Price Earnings ratio is loss it indicates positive impact for Company.

Comparison of Ranbaxy & Dr.Reddy on the basis Financial Analysis



DR.REDDY RANBAXY

LTP 1,164.55 443.35

Change % 0.26 0.56

52 W H/L1,255.65 / 357.00 538.00 / 133.15

Results (in Cr.) View in (Million) Dec-09 Sep-09

Sales 1,050.74 1,352.46

PAT 168.42 186.08

Equity 84.41 210.19

Ratios

OPM % 26.69 22.17

NPM % 16.03 13.76

EPS 9.98 4.43

CEPS 13.21 5.18

PE 26.14 --

Ownership Dec-09 Dec-09

Promoter & Promoter Grp 4,35,17,812 26,87,11,323

Indian 4,35,17,812 --

Foreign -- 26,87,11,323

Public 10,03,64,156 14,62,04,850

Institution 7,50,14,330 7,83,16,397

FII 4,37,49,146 2,85,82,858

DII 3,12,65,184 4,97,33,539

Non Institution 2,53,49,826 6,78,88,453

Bodies Corporate 70,72,759 1,47,91,602

CONCLUSION

Dr. Reddy's strong position in emerging Asian markets makes for substantially faster

growth compared with Ranbaxy.

After analyzing financial statements of both the companies, it indicates that Dr. Reddy

is showing more profit as compare to Ranbaxy. Dr. Reddy Laboratories is one of the

best-positioned providers of generic drugs.

In the year 2009, Ranbaxy has suffered huge losses in the overseas market as well as

share price of Dr.Reddy is high as compared to Ranbaxy it shows that Dr.Reddy Labs

good for long term investment.

The two segments of Dr Reddy’s – Global Generics and Pharmaceutical Services and

Active Ingredients (PSAI) recorded revenues of $253 million and $113 million,

respectively.

In the Current scenario investing in Dr.Reddy has better option than Ranbaxy.


Industry Analysis ( Pharma)

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