A summary of the six top trends in US follows: 

GENERATION APP

An emerging trend identified at Toy Fair 2011, this year there is an abundance of toys that

work with smart devices and apps. Toymakers are using technology to enhance classic play

patterns – not erase them. Physical toys remain integral to the play experience; in many

cases, companies have created traditional toys that interact with popular devices that are

already in so many homes … while tying in educational or active components for a well-

rounded play experience.

Includes: Products that work with an app or smart devices and products that are based upon

an app or web property but have no digital tie-in.

GLOWING WILD

Toys that glow in the dark or light up will infiltrate the toy aisle this year across multiple

categories – from outdoor and active toys to arts and crafts and creative products. Toys in this

category add a fantastical element to playtime for kids of all ages. They “ignite” imaginative

play by drawing kids into a world of whimsy and wonder – from arts and crafts toys that

incorporate LED components to exciting light-up toys that safely simulate fireworks. 

(continued)

Includes: Toys that rely on a glow component to drive the play experience and toys that are

equally enjoyable in the light of day as they are in the dark (i.e. glow-in-the-dark wooden

building blocks).

LITTLE LEARNERS

Far from simple “watch me” toys, products in this category build cognitive and developmental

skills beginning at a very early age, transforming little ones into well-rounded, lifelong

learners. These toys also give tykes a wide range of play options to choose from – allowing

them to explore their interests and talents and develop these skills as they grow older.

Includes: Infant to pre-school toys and games that educate and challenge and educational

toys targeted to children of all ages.

MANY WAYS TO PLAY!

Toys in this category engage kids on multiple levels. Parents can buy one very dynamic toy

that will entertain and educate a child for hours, days, weeks and months … allowing them to

truly get their money’s worth.  These toys have real depth – kids can play differently each time

depending on their moods or interests. Many of these toys also grow with a child so that they

can play in another way depending on their age.

Includes: toys that combine multiple play patterns (i.e. active play, role play, game play, etc.)

and customizable toys (playthings become a unique reflection of a child’s individuality).

SAVE ‘N’ SPLURGE

Recent toy industry data released by The NPD Group showed that consumers are

increasingly making “purchasing trade-offs” – that is, buying higher-priced toys at the expense

of mid- to lower-priced ones. As a result, 2012 will see a resurgence of toys that fall on the

higher end of the price spectrum, as consumers are willing to loosen their purse strings a bit

and spend more on products that pack a high play value punch or have a certain “WOW”

factor.

However, shoppers will always be attracted to affordable prices. Affordability was a trend in

the past few years and this sub-trend will persist in 2012 as parents and other shoppers have

really come to expect big play value at affordable prices.

Includes: “The Big Ask” / impressive toys (at higher prices) and collectibles / expanded lines

(at affordable prices).

YOUNG MAESTROS

A wide variety of musical toys will hit a high note in 2012 as kids of all ages – from infants to

tweens and teens – rock out with toys and games that teach them how to play different

instruments, practice their singing, or show off their dance moves. This trend is being driven

largely by pop culture – such as television shows like American Idol, Glee, The Voice and X

Factor.

Includes: toys for young kids that teach music basics and toys for older kids that let them

emulate their favorite pop stars.

U.S. TOY INDUSTRY ECONOMIC IMPACTThe toy industry’s annual total economic impact in the U.S. is nearly $80.9 BILLION.

The average price of a toy is less than $8, but the estimated 3 Billion units sold across the

nation each year generates approximately $21.2 Billion in direct toy sales.

From toy inventors to store clerks in every state from Alabama to Wyoming, the toy industry

supports an estimated533,177 jobs (FTE) generating $25.8 Billion in wages for U.S.

workers.

The toy industry also generates $11.1 Billion in tax revenue each year (combined State

taxes of $5.2 billion; combined Federal taxes of $5.9 billion).

Trends 2011:

SIMPLY SOCIALLots of apps are based on classic toys, but now an increasing number of physical toys are being introduced that originated with or will work with apps. The toys that keep children looped in with social networks include toys that connect to Apps or other electronic connections. They also include virtual worlds and toys that have an online component.   There are also Social Face-to-Face games, also known as All-Play. Reducing the “wait time” while other players take their turn, “all-play” games engage each competitor throughout the gaming experience with consensus play, team play, cooperative play rules, and other techniques.   Socially aware games also keep children socially conscious by integrating a pro-social play pattern. A steadily increasing number of toys are teaching kids about the world around them and how to be a better citizen and are showcasing “everyday heroes” such as firefighters, teachers, moms and dads, and others that kids look up to and learn fromCENT-SATIONALCent-sational games include a broad range of affordable collectibles for both boys and girls. These new influx of “mini” toys (smaller versions of larger products already on the market as well as new stand-alone miniature products) are made as a range of products within a line that can be adapted for every wallet.PERFORMANCE PLAYPerformance play toys are brain-challenging games that encourage logical thinking, strategy and mind puzzles for individuals, teams and head-to-head competition. These games can also include active sports, dance and role play products that get kids up and moving to exercise their bodies. Toys that use children’s body movement and motion-sensor technology to advance a game are being seen everywhere in 2011 and are considered performance play because they keep children active while playing. These are enhancements to classic racing and competition play patterns emphasize the “need for speed”.DESIGN, DISCOVER AND LEARNIncludes three primary sub-trends:  

Camouflage Learning Akin to “Spinach in the Cookies”, many toy manufacturers are

expanding their brands with new toys and games that engage kids in interactive, “hands on”

experiential play patterns that emphasize “learning through doing” . Camouflage learning

games can include games and activities that build skills and knowledge and/or enhance

memory or those that encourage experimentation.   Capitalizing on the increasing

affordability, availability and prevalence of tech tools and social media, many new kid-focused

products are using technology to integrate learning into play patterns ranging from hand-held

gaming devices, digital cameras, and role- and imaginative-play.   

Geek-Chic In conjunction with an increasing nationwide focus on the importance of education

in Science, Tech, Engineering and Math (STEM) concepts, toymakers are helping to make

learning “cooler than ever” with expanding product lines designed for kids of all ages. These

lines include toys in which kids can carry out experiments, model-building and trial-and-error

scenarios. These hands-on experiences engage kids in chemistry, biology, physics, and other

sciences. 

Constructibles and Crafts The third sub-trend which helps children design, discover, and

learn which is flying off of the shelves in 2011 is constructible and craft toys where kids are

being challenged to think spatially. The arts and crafts play pattern holds strong with a broad

range of products for kids to get in touch with their creative side and innovative new twists on

classic products.

Trends 2010:

ACTIVE

Building upon the exercise trend in 2009, active toys that encourage kids to use their minds and bodies, are all

the rage this year. These products tie together physical play with active intelligence and imagination. Examples

of toys in this category range from brain teasers and creativity generators to exercise toys that keep the body up

and moving.  ACCESSIBLE

Accessible toys refer to the category of products that make playtime possible for kids and families wherever

they are. Whether on-the-go or in the home, kids can connect to their favorite toys and characters 24/7 through

online or travel play. This type of play is made possible through iPhones or other mobile applications and e-

reader programs that offer playable content for kids.  AFFORDABLE

Affordable toys are part of the “economy” trend that gained traction in 2009 as consumers continued to face

challenging economic times. This year there are even more affordable toy options priced at $25 and under – all

with tons of value built-in. The types of toys in this category range from action figures and dolls to accessories

and child-size role-play options. Construction toys, games and arts and crafts are priced at “pennies per play”

due to their reusable nature. (ie. think about how many times a toy will be used – and factor that into the cost – a

board game may be around for years in the home for the price of $20 vs. an arts and crafts toy that can be only

used once).  ASPIRATIONALAspirational toys are a new category of products that empower kids to make their own choices. It encourages kids to think about what they would like to be – and who they can become, letting them know that they can truly make a difference in the world. These toys include eco-friendly products that help to make the world a greener place, foster innovation and creativity, and embrace community-strengthening activities such as mentoring and charitable giving.

KEY TRENDS 2009

ECONOMY: THE PRICE-VALUE RELATIONSHIP

Multi-tiered pricing strategies provide options to fit all wallets. The price-value relationship appeals to

all categories: classic and new play patterns with multi-dimensional play experiences, toys that grow

with a child over time, and games and educational products that offer skill-leveling as they represent

the value gift-givers expect in tougher economic times. In addition, there are lots of options priced

under $25. Manufacturers of all sizes are approaching price and price-value, using a variety of

methods.EXERCISE: GET UP AND MOVE-IT

Today’s parents want their kids up and moving. The goal is to build healthier habits, to combat obesity,

and to promote long-term active lifestyles. New 2009 product solutions include Motion Gaming, which

uses the accelerometer technology (made famous in the Wii); plug-n-play options for under $30; and

RFID technology for preschoolers. Also, old-fashioned water blasters, soft darts, and outdoor sports

and ride-ons provide retailers with both new technology and classic brands to support active play.ENTERTAINMENT

Entertainment can add the wow factor to draw audiences and the sizzle that creates a lifetime of

memories for fans. Licensed and entertainment properties can propel products to stratospheric success

or drag down the bottom line if not managed or executed properly. The entertainment industry is the

inspiration for many toys and games, and accounted for 27 percent of all retail toy sales dollars in

2008, according to the NPD Group. Entertainment genres range from blockbuster movies to TV and

DVDs, to celebrities from pop culture (TV, sports, and music), to nostalgic and classic brands. New

entertainment vehicles and celebrities drive the pop culture side, with older favorite actors and classic

licenses and brands driving the nostalgic side. Character licenses are popular, whether they are derived

from TV, publishing, video games, or websites. More than two-dozen family films will launch in 2009,

and more than half of them are associated with a strong licensed property or entertainment celebrity.

About 40 percent of the movies will feature the newest 3D technology. With scenes literally popping

off the movie screen, toys will need to be just as exciting to appeal to buyers and consumers. Since

more manufacturers are tapped as master toy licensees across properties, buyers will see more choices,

increased innovation and possibly more competitive prices.

Retailers are fighting a price war on children’s toys in the final days before Christmas as consumers demand bigger and better discount deals.

More than a third of consumers are planning to spend less on Christmas presents for children this year than in 2011, according to research shown exclusively to Marketing Week.

Lightspeed Research surveyed an online panel of 1,000 people in the UK, who will be buying Christmas gifts for children aged under 18. The vast majority of respondents (93 per cent) expect stores that stock gifts for children to start discounting in the run-up to Christmas. Half of those people (49 per cent) will wait for sales before buying some gifts, the research shows.

Ralph Risk, marketing director for EMEA at Lightspeed, says consumers’ increasingly frugal outlook is indicative of the rising pressure on people’s budgets, as well as their expectation that retailers should offer discounts and promotions. “People have been educated to look for special offers; you see it in food shopping and clothes, right through to presents. They often expect to get sales before they even start buying things across the whole spectrum of goods and services. Christmas presents are no exception.”

Lego

The research shows that 32 per cent of respondents buy Christmas gifts for children as a result of special offers - the most popular reason ahead of buying an item the child actually likes, which 31 per cent of people give as a reason.

Stuart Grant, buying director at toy retailer The Entertainer, confirms that the demand for discount deals is even greater this year than last. “We’re finding that if an item isn’t price promoted, then there is no demand,” he says.

“It’s now all about discounting or having a promotion to drive volume. That could be down to one of two things: either the consumer is waiting [for a special offer] or there are so many deals out there that if you’re not offering a particular deal, people will buy from another store. It’s a very competitive market - we’ve never known it to be so competitive.”

The rise of ecommerce in recent years, as well as increasing competition from supermarket chains, have also increased the pressure on specialist toy retailers to cut their prices. Grant says The Entertainer, which has more than 60 stores in the UK, has had “a great year in a very tough climate”, though he expresses concern for the toy market as a whole.

“We’re getting ourselves into a very unhealthy place as an industry and we’re not alone,” he says. “How many people pay full price for a sofa? Who’s buying clothes before Christmas now? Everybody has acclimatised to the way that retailers choose to promote business. Even if the economy does recover, I can’t see that we’re going to be able to suddenly become less promotionally driven as a retail sector.”

The research suggests that gift shoppers are heavily influenced by this discount culture. When asked for their anticipated average spend per child on Christmas gifts this year, 34 per cent of people say they plan to spend £20 or less. That compares with just 8 per cent who expect to splurge more than £100 per child.

Spiderman

Alan Simpson, chairman of the Toy Retailers Association (TRA), says the demand for expensive, big ticket Christmas toys has declined. “As retailers we’ve got to appreciate that there is less money around today,” he says. “Three or four years ago, a £100 toy was normal but now the £50 or £60 toy is the top-line spend for the majority. We have got to react to the marketplace we’re in, otherwise we’ll be left wondering why our goods are not selling.”

The Lightspeed report also shows the buying habits that UK consumers have adopted in order to save money further. For example, 27 per cent have saved shopping points and vouchers for children’s gifts this Christmas, while 23 per cent say they have been buying throughout the year when items have been on sale.

Toys n Tuck, a small chain based in Essex, has sought to appeal to such shoppers with a range of promotions geared towards Christmas. It includes a Christmas club, in which people can pay a deposit on a toy ahead of the festive season and then make payments over a period of time. “It guarantees that people get the products they want,” explains company director Alan Dadswell.

“The idea has worked well. We’ve got around 10 per cent more people joining the club compared to last year. It’s just another way of offering people a different option. Invariably, from a small chain point of view, we’ve got to offer something that others cannot.”

Furby

While toy retailers will try to stand out from the competition regardless of their size, the toys they stock are usually the same. Both The Entertainer and Toys n Tuck report that Furby is the most popular toy this Christmas - so much so that they are struggling to get the product as supply fails to keep up with demand.

Furby, the furry, interactive robot toy, was released in 1998 and sold 40 million units in the first three years of its original production. Its manufacturer Hasbro is aiming to recapture that sales magic this year by relaunching the product with a host of new functions and features, including LED eyes and an iPhone app that allows the creature to be fed remotely.

The TRA has predicted that Furby will be among the biggest sellers this Christmas, with other old favourites like Lego and Nerf also making up its Dream Toys list for 2012. Simpson argues that such products appeal to parents who might have played with the toys when they were children. He suggests that their enduring popularity is a cause for optimism in the toy industry, reflecting its ability to adapt and move with the times.

Simpson says: “The Furby came out 15 years ago but the technology from that time has moved on. The Furby of this year reflects that. So we have toys that have been reinvented and brought up to date.

“Today’s Lego sets aren’t the same products that would have been around 15 years ago either: they have moved on, bought in licences and diversified their product range. But at the same time, it’s still just little bricks that allow children to build and use their imagination.”

Top 13 predicted bestsellers this Christmas (alphabetical order)1. Cabbage Patch Kids, JAKKS Pacific2. Furby, Hasbro3. InnoTab 2, VTech4. Jake and the Neverland Pirates - Pirate Ship Bucky, Mattel5. LeapPad 2, Leapfrog Toys6. LEGO Friends: Olivia’s House, Lego7. LEGO The Lord of the Rings: The Mines of Moria, Lego8. Mike the Knight’s Deluxe Glendragon Playset, Character Options9. Monster High Ghouls Rule Dolls, Mattel10. My Moshi Home, Vivid Imaginations11. Nerf N-Strike Elite Hail-Fire, Hasbro12. Twister Dance, Hasbro13. Web Shooting Spider-Man, Hasbro

We ask marketers on the frontline whether our ‘trends’ research matches their experience on the ground

Stuart GrantBuying directorThe Entertainer

One of the reasons there is pressure to offer discounts is that there is no urgency in the market. Maybe 10 or 15 years ago, toys were always in short supply: people were always chasing around for the Teletubbies or the Tracy Island of that year. But there are very few products now that are in short supply. The only thing that I can’t get for love or money is Furby, which has relaunched this year.

The testament of that is that it’s selling without any price promotion because there’s just a complete lack of supply. So the market isn’t touching the price because they can’t get enough stock. I think it’s similar for most industries where there is never a lack of supply. Everyone is struggling to show growth in a market that’s declining and therefore there’s too much stock around.

We have quite a tight marketing campaign across the whole year: we run discount flyers during every month apart from November and December and then our big push is with our Christmas catalogue. It has around 320 products, so it’s quite a good representation of what we stock but also of what’s going on in the market. We absolutely sharpen up our prices on that media to make sure we are putting our line in the sand in terms of competitive retail.

Alan SimpsonChairmanToy Retailers Association

A lot of the cut pricing has to do with the consumer delaying their Christmas spend rather than them realigning their budgets. Yes, everyone is seeing a tightening of the strings but we’ve also seen in previous years that children are always the last to feel that and parents and grandparents will go the extra mile to make sure the child at Christmas is well looked after.

In previous years it used to be the case that the January sale actually started in January. But consumers have realised that they have a lot of power and if retailers have bought in a lot of stock for Christmas, they will expect to move that stock pre-Christmas. Therefore, people have a lot of control over when they spend and that has an effect on retailers being forced to bring sales forward, which has happened in previous years.

At the moment, we’re also seeing the big supermarkets going after market share for toys. They are competing with the major toy retailers and the smaller specialist shops are caught in the middle. But the smaller independents can also wait and say that they’re not interested in fighting over market share: they’re interested in the toy industry as a whole. When the bigger players run out of stock, they will be the places that consumers go.  

Alan DadswellCompany directorToys n Tuck

We’re having to work very hard to build our sales because people are looking for offers and deals. That’s the way it is this year. We’re members of Toymaster buying group and as part of that we had a sale in November to try to compete with all the other sales that are going on. Going beyond that we’ve done promotions individually with suppliers where we’ve tried to run special offers and talk to everyone in the market to see what we can give the consumer in the way of good value offers. That’s what you really have to do.

In terms of Christmas marketing, our buying group produces a catalogue and we go out with our sales flyer. But we also try to do different things: for example we do a letter to Santa [campaign] where children write their letters to Santa and send them into us. We then send them a letter back and also do a little present in the shop for them: at the bottom of the letter it says something like ‘by the way, Santa has left a little present in the shop for you, come and collect it’. It won’t be anything huge and usually it’s something we’ve built up in stock from our suppliers through the year. But it’s just a nice way to get people into the store.

2011 toy spend for Christmas week was 15% higher than 2010, but Brits are keeping it in the family

London, January 24th 2012: As the 2012 Toy Fair opens in London today (24th January), global market

research experts The NPD Group reveals the latest trends and sales figures for the UK toy market in 2011.

The toy market in 2011: taking it to the wire

Looking back at 2011, the UK’s toy market achieved a modest 3% growth over the year. After disappointing

results in September, when the value of sales fell from £189 million in 2010 to £181 million in 2011, and October

2011, when sales fell from £235 million in 2010 to £227 million in 2011, the UK toy market mirrored the

experience of most other European countries (France, Germany, Italy and Spain*).

In the UK it was followed by a minor improvement in November and patchy trading during December. However,

the UK market benefited from a last minute surge in December, especially during Christmas week, which

accounts for 5.7% of the UK’s total annual sales. Christmas spending as a whole accounts for 35% of the annual

trade in toys. In fact, 2011 delivered a bumper Christmas week for the toy market, with an extra day’s shopping

created by Christmas Eve falling on a Saturday. The result was that toy sales for Christmas week in 2011 were

valued at £131 million - up by 15% - compared to the same period in 2010, which was worth £113 million.

European market

The NPD Group’s data also reveals that while the UK is still ranked as the number one toy market in Europe, its

dominance is slipping. While the UK market grew by 3% - dropping from 6% growth in 2010 - the French toy

market - second to the UK - recorded a 5% growth last year compared to 2010, while Germany finished 2011

with a solid 7% growth on 2010.

In Italy and Spain, however, the toy markets did not fare so well. Despite good last minute sales, The NPD Group

reports a decline of 3% in Italy and 7% in Spain, whose turnover had already declined by 0.7% in 2010.

Jez Fraser-Hook, UK Toy Director for The NPD Group believes the UK toy market did well to recover after a slow

start to 2011: “After surprisingly negative trends over the summer, achieving 3% growth by the end of 2011 was a

positive achievement for the toy market in the UK. It is also a good indicator that while 2012 will undoubtedly be a

challenge, there is still potential for the market to grow.”

Sales increasingly motivated by promotions

However, despite economic uncertainties, The NPD Group also shows that toy buyers don’t necessarily turn to

low-priced items, but they do devote more energy to bargain hunting in order to buy what they want at the best

price. The proliferation of promotions in the toy market primarily comes from the online channel. In Europe, the

volume of sales generated by online promotions had increased by 34% over the first nine months of 2011,

whereas promoted sales offline had not shown any growth over the same period.

Jez Fraser-Hook adds: “The proportion of sales generated by promotions keeps growing in the European market

and UK sales are highly dependent on promotions. Consumers buy more, but also more cleverly and

opportunistic buying is stronger than ever. In the first nine months of 2011 the share of toy sales made on

promotion increased by 5% over the same period the previous year.”

Putting the family first

According to The NPD Group, toy sales are also becoming much more of a family affair and faced with the

economic crisis, consumers choose to buy toys for their close family, children and grandchildren, as opposed to

friends.

Jez Fraser-Hook comments: “Across Europe, there was a clear trend in 2011 for friends and neighbours to

reduce the number of toys they bought. From January to September 2011 this group of consumers reduced the

amount they spent on toys by 22% compared to the previous year. On the other hand, parents and grandparents

still spoil their children and grandchildren. Toy purchases made by grandparents have indeed increased by 3%

over the same period in 2010.”

Top Toy Sellers by value in 2011 in UK (Full year 2011)

Manufacturer Toy

1 LEGO LEGO MINIFIGURES

2 VTECH VTECH KIDIZOOM TWIST DIGITAL

3 LEAPFROG LEAPPAD EXPLORER TABLET

4 VTECH INNOTAB LEARNING TABLET

5 LEGO STAR WARS 2011

6 VTECH FIRST STEPS BABYWALKER

7 BANDAI BEN 10 FIGURES 10 CM

8 MATTEL CARS 2 CHARACTER ASST

9 HASBRO NERF- N-STRIKE MAVERICK

10 HASBRO NERF N-STRIKE BARRICADE RV-10

Source : The NPD Group /Retail Tracking

The fastest growing toy categories in the UK for 2011 were: Building sets (+20%), Outdoor (+12%), Dolls (+8%)

and Vehicles (+7%).

Jez Fraser-Hook concludes: “2012 will be a challenging year for the toy industry, partly due to the wider economy

and partly due to the fact that the Cars, Star Wars and Moshi Monsters licenses were so successful in 2011 that

they will be hard acts to follow. However we expect to see new and exciting launches for both the boys and girls

markets this year. An array of super hero licenses, combined with ranges crossing over from digital, along with a

new mini world for girls should all help to sustain the UK toy market.”

*(source: The NPD Group / Retail Tracking covering 78% of UK toy sales).