Industrialization and Demand for Labor Mobility

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Industrialization andDemand for Labor MobilityXingmin Yin

CCES, Fudan University

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The views expressed in this presentationare the views of the author and do notnecessarily reflect the views or policies ofthe Asian Development Bank Institute(ADBI), the Asian Development Bank(ADB), its Board of Direc tors, or thegovernments they represent. ADBI doesnot guarantee the accuracy of the dataincluded in this paper and accepts noresponsibility for any consequences oftheir use. Terminology used may not

necessarily be consistent with ADB officialterms.


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KEY ISSUES

How can we assess the contribution oflabor mobility to PRCs industrialization in

the past decade, especially afterfinancial crisis?

Should we make a good projection on

PRCs new steps to attract internationalexperts and students to PRC?

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Question One

How to define PRCs standing in theworld economy?

Incentive for labor mobility and policyresponse?

Different impact of Financial Crisis oncountrys strategy.

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Income based on KnowledgeCountry GDP per capita, dollar

2000 2007 2010/2015Population

MillionR&D/GDP

%GERT

PRC 840 2370 4270/8250 1338 1.47/2.12 26/30

J apan 35620 37790 41850 127 3.45 59

Republicof Korea

8910 19730 19890 49 3.36 104

Thailand 2000 3400 4150 69 0.21 48

Viet Nam 390 770 1160 87 .. 22India 450 950 1270 1225 0.76 16

Pakistan 440 860 1050 174 0.46 5

GERT: Gross enrollment ratio in tertiary.

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Question Two

What direction of labor mobility in PRCsindustrialization?

Two directions: from agriculture to non-agriculture; and from less developed toindustrializing regions.

Still very large number of surplus labor inagricultural sector.

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Changes of Industrial Labor

Composition, %2000 2008 2013 Million persons

Primary 50.0 39.6 31.4 241.71

Secondary 22.5 27.2 30.1 231.70Tertiary 27.5 33.2 38.5 296.36

Total labor

Million persons 720.85 755.64 769.77

Primary output% 15.1 10.7 10.0

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GDP per capita, RMB

020000400006000080000100000

120000

RMB YUAN

RMB YUAN

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Difference of Income across

PRCs Regions, 2013

Region GDP, percapita, USD

Region GDP, percapita, USD

Beijing 15,000 Sichuan 5240

Shanghai 14,500 J iangxi 5120

J iangsu 12,000 Anhui 5110

Zhejiang 11,100 Guangxi 4940

Guangdong 9,500 Yunnan 4050

Shandong 9,100 Guizhou 3700

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Industrial Clusters for Migrants

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Highway for Labor Mobility

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Question Three

Can PRC find more efficiency way toredistribute its huge resource of labor within

30 years?

Labor mobility based on human capitalsupply: 1. Education Law in 1993: 9-year

schooling; 2. Mass-high education in 1998.

Is it stabilizing for human capital supply?

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Big Progress of Education

Period Total no. of GraduatesMillion persons

1 1978-1990 4.60

2 1991-2001 8.56

3 2002-2014 58.82

Sub-total 72.00

4 2015-2020 42.00

5 2021-2025 50.00

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No. of Postgraduates

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Graduates in Four Education LevelsMillion Persons

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Undergraduates High School

Vocational Secondary School

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Question Four

Who will be qualified for the high-paid jobs inPRC?

What is the process of labor globalization?

Two faces for high quality labor supply in PRCsindustrialization: Chinese and foreign experts.

Policy to support the mobility of foreign expertsdue to the diversification of economic activity.

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Brain Drain

or Brain GlobalizationNumber of ReturnedStudents, persons

No. of StudentsStudying abroad

NRS/NSSA(%)

2007 44000 144000 30.562008 69300 179800 38.54

2009 108300 229300 47.23

2010 134800 284700 47.35

2011 180200 339700 54.81

2012 272900 399600 68.29

2013 353500 413900 85.41

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The Case of Shanghai

How to analyze labor migration to PRC?

To figure out the mobility story grouped bytype and country.

Residents foreigners in Shanghai

Residence permitted foreigners in Shanghai

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Resident Foreigners

2005 2010 2012

Overseas Students and

Relatives 10224 16064 14467Employees and Relativesat Foreign Ventures 60137 95623 95303

Foreign Experts and

Relatives 4586 6638 7528

Permanent ResidentForeigners 948 1181 1587

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International Students

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Residence Permitted

Foreigners in Shanghai

2005 2010 2012

RPF, persons 100,011 162,481 174,192

Percentage,%

J apan & Republicof Korea

43.88 35.25 34.51

USA & Canada 19.51 19.88 19.51

Germany, UK,France & Australia 16.16 17.59 17.90

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Further Discussion

What kind policy should be bettersuitable for PRCs roadmap from middle-

income to high-income country inconsideration of labor mobility?

Do we really understand the policy

incentive for labor migration acrossregions as well as countries?

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Open Question

Does PRC need a good policy on expertmobility to PRC in terms of the largest

pool of labor force in the world?

How can PRC design new policy in itscommitment on ambitious

modernization?

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THANKS!

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Industrialization and Demand for Labor Mobility

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