Industrial Titanium Demand Forecast...
Transcript of Industrial Titanium Demand Forecast...
VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation
Joint Venture
an
A World Leader In Titanium
Industrial Titanium Demand Forecast 2013
Kevin J. Cain Overview and 5-Year Forecast
Key Findings
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• The world’s population will rise more than 25% from 2010 to 2040 reaching 9 billion.
• A majority of the population growth will reside in Africa, India, China and other developing countries.
• The global economy is expected to grow an average of 2.8% per year from now through 2040.
• Economic growth in the developed countries will be led by the USA.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, IMF 5-year forecast: April 2013, Exxon Mobil
Global Population Growth
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• 7.1 billion now ~ 10 billion by 2050
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2
4
6
8
10
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n (B
illio
ns) More developed regions
Less developed regions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision
4%
8% 7%
3% 2%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GD
P G
row
th
WorldChinaIndiaUnited StatesEuropean UnionMiddle East and North AfricaCIS
Economic Growth
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• Regional GDP Growth
Source: IMF 5 year forecast: April 2013 (growth at constant prices)
Key Findings
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• The world’s population will rise more than 25% from 2010 to 2040 reaching 9 billion.
• A majority of the population growth will reside in Africa, India, China and other developing countries.
• The global economy is expected to grow an average of 2.8% per year from now through 2040.
• Economic growth in the developed countries will be led by the USA.
Source: United Nation, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, IMF 5-year forecast: April 2013, Exxon Mobil
Industries for Ti consumption
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• Energy • Chemical Processing • Desalination
Energy
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Energy Outlook • Global energy demand will increase by
35% over the next 30 years. • Approximately 65% of that growth will
come from developing countries. Source: Exxon Mobil
Energy
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Energy Outlook
• Oil & Gas • Power Generation
The role of unconventional fuel
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• Global liquid fuel supply & resources
Conventional crude and
condensate
Deepwater Tight oil
Oil sands Natural Gas Other
Biofuels
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20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mill
ion
barr
els
per d
ay
oil e
quiv
alen
t Liquid fuel supply by type
Source: EIA
The role of unconventional fuel
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• Conventional vs. Unconventional Gas
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100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2020 2030 2040
Bill
ions
of c
ubic
feet
per
day
Natural gas supply North America natural gas demand by supply type in 2040
Rest of world conventional
North America conventional
Rest of world unconventional
North America unconventional
80% By 2040, close to 80% of North America gas supplies will be produced from local unconventional resources
Unconventional Local Conventional
LNG
Source: ExxonMobil
Oil & Gas
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• Demand for oil is forecasted to increase by 30% over the next 30 years (Exxon Mobil)
• Natural gas is likely to increase 60%. Growth in unconventional supplies to account for 60% of the increase (Exxon Mobil).
• Use of titanium • Deepwater platforms • FPSO’s (Floating Production, Storage & Offloading Vessel) • LNG plants • Degasification plants • Water filtration / purification plants • Heat transfer equipment
• Approximately 3500 MT to 5000 MT will be consumed per year over the next 5 years (Source: Internal estimate).
Energy
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Energy Outlook
• Oil & Gas • Power Generation
World Net Electricity Generation
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4
6
8
10
12
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Trill
ion
kWh
OECD Americas OECD Europe OECD AsiaEurope and EuraisaMiddle East & AfricaIndia & Other AsiaChinaCentral and South America
Source: Energy Information Administration – International Energy Outlook 2013 * CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
Forecast CAGR *
3.2%
Forecast CAGR *
1.3%
Forecast CAGR *
3.5%
The role of unconventional fuel
• Remaining global natural gas resources
North America
4.0
Latin America
2.8
Europe 1.6
Africa 3.1
Middle East 4.8
Russia Caspian
6.6 Asia Pacific
4.8
Thousand trillion cubic feet Unconventional Conventional
World total 27’900
trillion cubic feet
Source: ExxonMobil
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100
150
200
250
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cap
acity
(GW
)
Online Year
Standard Thermal
Combined Cycle Gas
Nuclear Power
• New Online Capacity
Power Generation
15 Source: Internal estimate * CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
CAGR *
15%
CAGR *
6%
Power Generation: Ti demand
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Electricity: Titanium Demand
• Approximately 7000MT to 8000MT will be consumed per year over the next 5 years.
• Use of titanium • Welded tubes • Tube sheets • Heat transfer equipment Source: Internal estimate
Industries for Ti Consumption
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• Energy • Oil & Gas • Power generation
• Chemical Processing • Desalination
Chemical Processing
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• Global investment in Asia and Middle East • Capital investment shifting to North America.
• Natural gas liquids (NGL) • $100b of incremental capital investment by 2025
• Global capital expenditures • NGL’s • PTA (pure terephthalic acid); polyester film and filter production • Urea/ammonia nitrate; crop fertilizer • Chlorine/caustic soda Source: Bank of America Industry Overview May 20, 2013
Chemical Processing
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• Titanium end-use applications • General fabrication of tanks and vessels • Piping systems • Heat transfer equipment • Fittings and fasteners • Welded tubing
• It’s estimated that the average annual consumption of titanium in the chemical process industry will range from 9,500 MT to 12,000 MT.
Source: Internal estimate
Industries for Ti Consumption
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• Energy • Oil and gas • Power Generation
• Chemical Processing • NGL’s • PTA • Urea • Chlorine / Caustic
• Desalination
Desalination
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• Applications • Removes salt from seawater for and potable
end use • Clean wastewater streams (ex. Frac flow
back water from shale gas) • Technologies
• Reverse osmosis (RO) • Thermal (MSF and MED)
Desalination
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• Technology Split – 2013 to 2018
5% 6%
89%
million m3/d
MED
MSF
RO &ED/EDR
4,400 6,100
58,700
Contract Value ($ million)
MED
MSF
RO &ED/EDR
Source: Desaldata Forecast, June 2013
Desalination Forecast Drivers
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• Industry rather than municipal is strongest driver Source: Oxford, UK (PRWEB) August 22, 2012 by Jeremy Brown
• Capital expenditure will grow from $2.8b (2011) to $5.7b (2017)
Source: Oxford, UK (PRWEB) August 22, 2012 by Jeremy Brown
• Fastest growing economic regions also have the lowest amount of fresh water; India, China and the Middle East
• Copper (copper alloy desal tubes) released into the sea from Gulf Coast desal plants is becoming problematic and could drive future technology in favor of titanium (Source: Dr. Ing Tobias Bleninger & Professor G.H. Jirka, PhD, Karlston Institute of Technology, Germany)
Desalination
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• Regional Desal Demand
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cap
acity
(m3 /d
ay)
Mill
ions
Online Year
Middle East and AfricaAsia South PacificAmericasEuropeOther
Source: Desaldata Forecast, June 2013
Desalination: Thermal
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• Capacity Forecast
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cap
acity
(m3 /d
ay)
Thou
sand
s
Online Year
Small Thermal (0-12k m3/d)Large Thermal (12-50k m3/d)Extra Large MSF (>50k m3/d)Extra Large MED (>50k m3/d)
Source: Internal Estimate * CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
CAGR *
7%
CAGR *
6%
Thermal Capacity: Desalination
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• The pipeline for titanium mill product shipments to the start-up of a desal facility can range from 1 to 3 years.
• In the last 3 years nearly 12,000MT of coil for welded tube was produced to support the Ras Al Kahir (Ras Az Zour) and Yanbu III projects. • Doosan Heavy Industries is the contractor on both projects.
• For the next 5 years capacity will grow at a 6% CAGR (compound annual growth weight).
• Titanium demand will range from 750MT to 2000MT per year over the next 5 years.
Source: Internal estimate
Industries for Ti Consumption
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• Energy • Oil and gas • Power generation
• Chemical Processing • NGL’s • PTA • Urea • Chlorine / Caustic
• Desalination • MED • MSF
Industries for Ti Consumption
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• Others • Medical • Mining • Cathodic Protection • Automotive • Recreational • Shipbuilding / Marine • Architecture
Industries for Ti Consumption (Source: Architectural Titanium)
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Global Forecast: Industrial Ti
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• 2011 through 2013: Average industry shipments; 33,000MT
• 2014; 29,000MT • 2014: Decline in desalination, continued
improvement in other major industrial sectors. • From 2014 to 2018: 29,000MT to 35,000MT
with support of Chemical processing, Energy and Desalination infrastructure industries.
Source: Internal estimate
Titanium Industrial Demand History and Forecast
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Met
ric T
ons
(x10
00)
Historical Forecast
Chemical Processing
Power
Automotive
Metallurgy
Oil & Gas
Chlor-alkali
Desalination
Architecture
Shipbuilding
Med. & other
• Does not include shipments within China
Source: Internal estimate
VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation
Joint Venture
an
A World Leader In Titanium
Industrial Titanium Demand Forecast 2013
THANK YOU!
Kevin J. Cain President, Uniti Titanium