Indonesian Position on Bioenergy and Biorenewable Position on Bioenergy and Biorenewable Kuala...
Transcript of Indonesian Position on Bioenergy and Biorenewable Position on Bioenergy and Biorenewable Kuala...
Indonesian Position onBioenergy and Biorenewable
Kuala Lumpur, 14 - 16th June 2010
The Global Sustainable Bioenergy (GSB) ConventionFor The Asia - Oceania Region
The Department of Chemical EngineeringCenter for Research on Energy Policy (CREP)
INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG
Dr Retno Gumilang Dewi
Presentation Outline
Background
Indonesian Energy Situation
Indonesian Position on ‘New’ Bioenergy and Biorenewable(the Latest Development and Future Scenario)
Policy Issues of Biofuel Development in Indonesia
Land Use Competion (Bioenergy vs Food and Forestry)
Dynamic model of future Indonesian bioenergy development
Findings and Strategy
BiorenewableFor Bioenergy and Biobased Product in
Indonesia
Background
Biorenewable (Bioenergy & Bioproduct)
Biorenewable biomass (organic compound generated fromplant/animal, product/waste of agriculture, plantation, forestry)
Biofuel fuel made/derived from biomass; biofuel is part ofbioenergy (including biomass-based electricity)
Among renewable energy resources, biomass is the onlyresource that can be converted in relatively direct way into fuels(to substitute petroleum fuels); other renewables (solar, wind,hydro, geotherrmal, etc) can only be converted to electricity[Soerawidjaja, 2008].
Biobased product materials/products derived from biomass(bioplastics, biosurfactant, oleochemical, bioalcohol basedolefin (replace the petrochemical product), etc)
Bio-energy and bio-renewable in “general terms” have beendeveloped and utilized in Indonesia.Palm oil waste and bagasse have long been used as energysources in crude palm oil and sugar cane mills;Wood pulp or rice stalk used as feed stock in paper mills.
Several new types of bio-energy and bio-renewable thatcurrently receives “renewed interest” in Indonesia.In bioenergy, the latest hottest issue is the development ofbiofuel (biodiesel, bioethanol, biooil, etc)Oleochemicals (CPO based) conversion to substitute petroleumbased chemicals and bioalcohol conversion to olefin are twoexamples of biorenewable (under consideration).
Bioenergy and Biorenewable in Indonesia
This discussion limited to bioenergy (biofuel)
Indonesian Energy SituationRoles of Bioenergy in Energy Supply – Demand System
GOI has relalized the importance of reducing imported oildependence main focus of energy sector is “supply security“
To full fill energy demand, Indonesia still relies on fossil energy.New-renewable is still low (4.5% or 44.55 mmboe in 2008).
Presidential Decree no.5/2006, in blue print of national energymanagement, has targeted that in 2025 share of energy mix:– new-renewable energi will increase to 17%– oil will decrease from 52 % to 20%– natural gas will increase 28 % to 30%– coal will increase from 15 % to 33%.
New–renewable energy target is bio-fuel 5%, geothermal 5%nuclear and other energy is 5%, and liquified coal is 2%.
Energy supply mix target is formulated regarding cost andresources potential (it is not ‘climate change’)
ENERGY SECURITY
Source: Data and Information Center, MEMR, 2009
Indonesian Energy Resource Potential, 2008
Fossil Energy ResourcesReserves Annual
ProductionR/P,
(Proven + Possible) year (*)
Oil 56.6 BBarels 8.2BBarels (**) 357 MBarels 23Natural Gas 334.5 TCF 170 TCF 2.7 TSCF 63Coal 104.8 Btons 18.8 Btons 229.2 Mtons 82Coal Bed Methane 453 TCF - - -(*) assuming no new discovery; (**) including Cepu Block
New and RenewableEnergy Resources Installed Capacity
Hydro 75.670 MW 4.200 MW
Geothermal 27.510 MW 1.052 MW
Mini/Micro Hydro 500 MW 86,1 MW
Biomass 49.810 MW 445 MW
Solar Energy 4,80 kWh/m2/day 12,1 MW
Wind Energy 9.290 MW 1,1 MWUranium (***) 3 GW for 11 years*) (e.q. 24,112 ton) 30 MW
***) Only at Kalan – West Kalimantan
Energy suply – demand trends
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Million BOE
BiomassGeothermalHydropowerNatural GasOilCoal
Primary energy supply
Note: Growth : 3.3% per year; Biomass is used in rural household
0
50
100
150
200
250
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350
400
1990
1991
1992
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1995
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1998
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2005
2006
2007
2008
Million barrel
AMCCommerceIndustryTransportHousehold
Oil Fuels Consumption
Notes:• Mostly used in transport• Household demand will decrease significantly, substituted by LPG
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
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200
1990
1991
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1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
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2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Million barrels
AvturDieselGasoline
Transportation fuels
Note: Other transport fuels (gas, electricity and other liquid fuels) are much smaller
Move away from oil
Figure 1
Indonesian Position on ‘New’ Bioenergy and Biorenewable(The Latest Development and Future Scenario)
The rationale of biofuels development
Developed countries : Energy supply security (resource scarcity) Greenhouse (CO2) gas emission abatement commitment
“climate change” consideration
Developing countries : Energy security (reducing oil import) Improving balance of payment Jobs creation Poverty alleviation Greenhouse (CO2) gas emission abatement
“climate change” consideration
Indonesia has changed from ‘oil exporter’ to ‘net oil importer’ Country’s potential to supply biofuel feedstock is high; area for
planting biofuel feedstock is available, agroclimate is appropriatefor biofuel plants
Biofuel technology begin to be mastered by Indonesian Biofuel industry has potential to create large employment
including farmers and therefore could function as one of thedrivers of national economy
Biofuel has high export potential Biofuel is one of renewable energy that is developed to meet
energy security and ‘non-binding commitment’ on climate changeGOI committed:
- to reduce 26% of GHG emissions from the BaU in 2020- further, to reduce 41% with international support.
The rationale of biofuels development in Indonesia
OIL BALANCE PROJECTION
Production Import
Source: National Energy Blueprint
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Juta
SBM
Produksi-BAU Ekspor-BAU Impor-Skenario Gas & CoalImpor-BAU Impor-Skenario Efisiensi Produksi-Skenario FiskalEkspor-Skenario Fiskal
Export
BAU, exportEfficiency scenario
Gas & Coal scenarioIncentive scenario
BAU, prod
Incentive scenarioBAU, import
MM
BO
E
Biomassa resources in ASEAN Countries
[Sources: Saku Rantanen (Pöyry), 2009]18
Large Potential is still unutilized!.
Source: Saku Rantanen (Pöyry), 2009
W IL M A R G R O U P3 5 0 ,0 0 0 to n /y r
B P P T3 0 0 to n /y r
P T P N 4 & G A N E S H A4 ,0 0 0 to n /y r
R A P1 ,6 5 0 to n /y r E A I
5 0 0 to n /y rS U M IA S IH
4 0 ,0 0 0 to n /y r
E T E R IN D O1 2 0 ,0 0 0 to n /y r
T O T A L 5 2 0 ,0 0 0 k ilo lite rs /y e a r (A p r il 2 0 0 7 )
F e e d s to c k : C P O
F ig u re 2 . In d o n e s ia n B io d ie s e l P ro d u c t io n
P la n 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 1 : a d d it io n a l 3 .6 m illio n h a (p a lm o il & ja tro p h a )= 4 m illio n k L /y e a r
W IL M A R G R O U P3 5 0 ,0 0 0 to n /y r
B P P T3 0 0 to n /y r
P T P N 4 & G A N E S H A4 ,0 0 0 to n /y r
R A P1 ,6 5 0 to n /y r E A I
5 0 0 to n /y rS U M IA S IH
4 0 ,0 0 0 to n /y r
E T E R IN D O1 2 0 ,0 0 0 to n /y r
T O T A L 5 2 0 ,0 0 0 k ilo lite rs /y e a r (A p r il 2 0 0 7 )
F e e d s to c k : C P O
F ig u re 2 . In d o n e s ia n B io d ie s e l P ro d u c t io n
P la n 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 1 : a d d it io n a l 3 .6 m illio n h a (p a lm o il & ja tro p h a )= 4 m illio n k L /y e a r
Biodiesel (CPO base) in 2010: 3,1 million ton (~ 3,6 illion kilo liter); withCPO and first generation in 2050: 30 Mton ( 219 MMBOE) in 2050.
Needed: consistant government policy to develop second generation
B P P T L A M P U N G2 5 0 0 k L /y r(c a s s a v a )
S U G A R G R O U P7 0 ,0 0 0 k L /y r(s u g a rc a n e )
M O L IN D O R A Y A1 0 ,0 0 0 k L /y r
T O T A L 8 2 ,5 0 0 k ilo lite rs /ye a r (A p r il 2 0 0 7 )
F ig u re 3 . In d o n e s ia n B io e th a n o l P ro d u c tio n
P la n 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 0 : a d d itio n a l 1 .1 m illio n h a (c a s s a v a a n d s u g a rc a n e )= 2 – 2 .7 m illio n k L /ye a r
B P P T L A M P U N G2 5 0 0 k L /y r(c a s s a v a )
S U G A R G R O U P7 0 ,0 0 0 k L /y r(s u g a rc a n e )
M O L IN D O R A Y A1 0 ,0 0 0 k L /y r
T O T A L 8 2 ,5 0 0 k ilo lite rs /ye a r (A p r il 2 0 0 7 )
F ig u re 3 . In d o n e s ia n B io e th a n o l P ro d u c tio n
P la n 2 0 0 7 -2 0 1 0 : a d d itio n a l 1 .1 m illio n h a (c a s s a v a a n d s u g a rc a n e )= 2 – 2 .7 m illio n k L /ye a r
Future develoment: 300 thousand Kliter (~ 1,8 MMBOE/year) molassesNeeded:1.other bioethanol sources (sugar cane, cassava, nipah, aren, sagu, etc2.second generation (biomasa/selulosic based and micro algae)
Final energy demand projection(BaU, climate 1, and climate 2 scenarios)
INDONESIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2010 – 2030
(MEMR, 2009)
Juta SBM
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
BaU
Iklim
Iklim
BaU
Iklim
Iklim
BaU
Iklim
Iklim
BaU
Iklim
Iklim
BaU
Iklim
Iklim
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BiofuelBiomassaListrikLPGGas BumiBatubaraBBM
MMBOE
BiofuelBiomassElectricityLPGNatural GasCoalOil
Primary energy supply projection
Biofuel share in 2030: BaU 1.8% (82 million KL); Climate-14.2% (166 million KL); Climate-2 4.8% (170 miliion KL)
(MEMR, 2009)
INDONESIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2010 – 2030
Energy Outlook 2010 – 2050 (National Energy Board, DEN): shows thatthe share of new-renewable energy will be 35% (17% bioenergy)
(MEMR, 2009)
INDONESIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2010 – 2030
GHG Emissions of Energy Sector
2020: climate 1 (17.7%) and climate 2 (27.6%)2025: climate 1 (20%) and climate 2 (31.3%)2030: climate 1 (21%) and climate 2 (36%)
Nett emission will increase 1.35 to 2.95 GtCO2e (2000-2020)
0.28 0.371.00
0.040.05
0.06
0.050.05
0.43 0.29
0.130.16 0.17
0.250.39
0.83
1.44
0.06
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5E
mis
sion
(Gt C
O2e
) .
Peat EmissionWasteForestryAgricultureIndustryEnergy
1.35
1.76
2.95
2000 2005 20062020
National Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA)
Time
Emission under BAU
Unilateral NAMAs
Supported NAMAs
NAMAs for C-credit
Self financing but some part whichis not interest of the country have tobe supported
Rat
e of
em
issi
ons Implementation need private capital
or high investment – need TT, CB,investment support
Through market mechanism
2020
26%
41%
Non binding commitment
According to the latest development in the country, thetypes of biofuels to be developed in the country includes:-biodiesel to substitute petroleum-based diesel,-bioethanol to substitute petroleum-based gasoline,- biokerosene to substitute petroleum-based kerosene,-pure plant oil (PPO) to substitute diesel in power stations.
Government development target in 2025 for each fuel type:-biodiesel 10.22 million kL (kilo liters),-bioethanol 6.28 million kL,-biokerosene 4.07 million kL,-PPO 1.69 million kL.
National Biofuel Development Plan
Fuel 2005 - 2010 2011 - 2015 2016 - 2025
Biodiesel2.41 4.52 10.22
(10% of diesel) (15% of diesel) (20% of diesel)
Bioethanol1.48 2.78 6.28
(5% of gasoline) (10% of gasoline) (15% of gasoline)
Biokerosene 1.0 1.8 4.07
Pure Plant Oil 0.4 0.74 1.69
Total Biofuel 5.29 9.84 22.26 (*)
Biofuel Development Targets
million kilo liters
+ export : 11 million KL
(*) 5% in national energy mix
Biofuel industry characteristic is different with that of petroleum-based fuel industry (large and efficient system); new regulatoryapproach is needed
Biofuel development require cross sectoral cooperation
The current market rule of biofuel is not supportive to thedevelopment of domestic biofuel market (there is subsidy forbiofuel, but it is notsufficent for biofuel business profitable)
Unlike petroleum refineries, which is usualy large size per unit,biofuel production system in Indonesia will be much smaller insize per unit and distributed throughout the countries.Therefore, regional autonomy policy, regional government isalso expected to play major role in biofuel development
Issues to be addressed
GOI policies were formulated in Presidential Instruction & Decree:1. Presidential Instruction No.1/2006 (January 2006):
Supply and Utilization Biofuels. Instruction ordered relevant ministries& regional government to support biofuel development program.
2. Presidential Decree No.10/2006 (July 2006): Establishment ofNational Team for Acceleration of Biofuel Development forPoverty Alleviation and Creation of Employment.
GOI issued strategic policies concerning biofuel development(January 2006).
The objective of these policies:•to reduce dependency on fossil fuels•to strengthen national energy security.
Biofuel Policies
• National Standard (SNI) for Biodiesel No. 04 –7182 –2006• National Standard (SNI) for Bioethanol No. DT27 –0001 –2006• Biodiesel Specification for Domestic Market - Director General for
Oil and Gas Decree No. 13483K/24/DJM/2006• Income tax facility and accelerated amortization for investment
in specified business sector or areas (Government RegulationNo.1/2007), where renewable is included in this category.
• Credit facility for bio-energy development and revitalization ofplantation (Minister of Finance Decree No.117/PMK.06/2006)
• Credit facility for investment & working capital for activities thatsupport efforts to achieve food &energy security, including biofueldevelopment (Minister of Finance Decree No.79/PMK.05/2007).
Biofuel Policies (continued)
The subsequent regulations/policies supporting the biofueldevelopment policy includes:
• Biofuel mandatory - Decree of Minister of Energy andMineral Resources No.32/2008
Biofuel Policies (continued)
Regulation concerning supply, utilization and trade ofbiofuel and biofuel utilization obligation in transport,industry and power sectors.The obligation will be implemented in stages. Forexample biofuel obligation in transport is 1% in 2009 andincrease up to 15% in 2025.
Latest policy: Biofuel price subsidy – the industry considersthe subsidy is still to low and cannot make biofuel businessprofitable and attractive
Consequences:
Economy (jobs, export/import)
Food vs. Fuel
Environment (GHG, local, biodiversity)
Social
Sustainability
Biofuel development Reduce oil depencence(but it is not the only outcome)
Pro-con of biofuels development in Indonesia
Land Use Competion(Bioenergy Develompent vs Food and Forestry)
G ro w in gV e g O il
L a n dV e g O ilE x p a n s io n
F o o d c ro pla n d
P ro d u c t iv eV e g O il
L a n dt o p ro d u c t iv ela n d
e x p t im e O
F o o d c ro pe x p a n s io n
E x p e c t e d la n d e x p a n s io n
S e e dp ro d u c t io n
V e g o il la n dp ro d u c t iv it y
t im e t o m a t u reF o re s t
R e f in e r ie sC a p a c it y
re n d e m e n t
re m o v in gc o n s t ru c t io n
n o rm o ile x p t im e
b io d ie s e lp ro d u c t io n
~c a p a c it yu t ilis a t io n
c o n v e r t io nc o n s t a n t
re m a in e d
f e e d s t o c ka v a ila b le V e g O il
d e m a n d
V e g e t a b leO il
S t o c k
p ro d u c t io n c o n s u m p t io n
N o rm a lS t o c k
V e g O ilL a n d
e x p e c t e df e e d s t o c k
To t a l f e e d s t o c ka v a ila ib le
p ro d u c t io nt a rg e t
f e e d s t o c kc o n s u m p t io n
To t a ls h a re
S k e n a r io
V e g O ild e m a n d
P e rc e iv e dS h a re
f e e d s t o c ks u f f ic ie n c y
u m u r e k o n o m is
S k e n a r io
a d j o f s h a re
D e s ire ds h a re
a c t u a ls h a re
a d ju s t m e n tt im e
c o n v e rt io nc o n s t a n t
~
p ro d u c t io nt a rg e t b a s e
d e s ire dc a p a c it y
p la n n e dc a p a c it y e x p a n s io n
c o n s t ru c t io n t im e
t a rg e tg ro w t h
I d leL a n d
f o re s tc o n v e r t io n
la n d c o n v e rs io n
F o o dp ro d u c t iv it y
F o o dD e m a n d
F o o dP ro d u c t io n
f o o ds u f f ic ie n c y
e x p e c t e df o o d c ro p e x p
P o p u la t io np o p g ro w t h
g ro w t h
f o o de x p t im e
f o o dp e r c a p it a
n a t u ra lp ro d u c t iv it y
t e c h n o lo g ic a le f f e c t
c o n v ra t e
S u it a b le la n df o r V e g O il
la n d f o r f o o d
F ix e d f o re s t ~e f f la n ds c a rc it y
la n d f o r o il
la n d in d e xf o o d o il
e x p e c t e do il la n d e x p
~la n d a v
e f f t o f o o d
n o rm f o o de x p t im e
~la n d a ve f f t o o
n o rm o ile x p t im e
c o n v t im e
n o rmc o n v t
~
b io e t h a n o lp ro d t a rg e t
f o o dt o b io t h a n o l
b io e t a n o lt o r ic e ra t
d e s ire da ra b le
d u ra t io no f s u f f
in it f o re s t
F o o d S u p p ly
F O O D
L A N D
B I O D I E S E L I N D U S TR Y
System Dynamics Model of Indonesian Biofuel Development
Seedproduction
Veg oil landproductiv ity
Ref ineriesCapacity
rendement
remov ingconstruction
biodieselproduction
~capacityutilisationconv ertion
constant
f eedstockav ailable Veg Oil
demand
VegetableOil
Stock
productionconsumption
NormalStock
Productiv eVeg Oil
Land
expectedf eedstock
Total f eedstockav ailaible
productiontarget
f eedstockconsumption
Totalshare
Skenario
Veg Oildemand
Perceiv edShare
f eedstocksuf f iciency
umur ekonomis
adj of share
Desiredshare
actualshare
adjustmenttime
conv ertionconstant
~
productiontarget base
desiredcapacity
plannedcapacity expansion
construction time
targetgrowth
BIODIESEL INDUSTRY
Biodiesel Industry Model
Skenario
Food cropland
Foodproductiv ity
FoodDemand
FoodProduction
f oodsuf f iciency
expectedf ood crop exp
Populationpop growth
growthf ood
per capita
naturalproductiv ity
technologicalef f ect
norm f oodexp time
~
bioethanolprod target
f oodto biothanol
bioetanolto rice rat
Food Supply
FOOD
Food sector model
GrowingVeg Oil
LandVeg Oil
Expansion
Food cropland
Productiv eVeg Oil
Landto productiv e
land
exp time O
Food cropexpansion
Expectedland expansion
time to matureForest
norm oilexp time
remained
Veg OilLand
~capacityutilisation
targetgrowth
expectedf ood crop exp
norm f oodexp time
IdleLand
f orestconv ertion
landconv ersion
f oodexp time
conv rate
Suitable landf or Veg Oil
land f or f ood
Fixed f orest ~ef f landscarcity
land f or oil
land indexf ood oil
expectedoil land exp
~land av
ef f to f ood
~land avef f to o
norm oilexp time
conv time
normconv t
desiredarable
durationof suf f
init f orest
LAND
Land utilization model
• Government’s biofuel production target in 2025 could beachieved, but with a consequence that there will be competitionbetween land use for food and for fuel production; foodproduction sector has to sacrifice (food demand has to be metwith import).
• To minimize food vs fuel competition, Indonesia has to enhanceR&D activities for improving the productivity of food productionand biofuel production technologies
• To decrease demand in land use for biofuel productionIndonesia has to begin developing technologies that is not land-demanding (second generation biofuel technology, from wastes).In addition, Indonesia has to begin consider the development ofbiofuel feedstock that is planted in water (micro algae)
Finding of the system dynamic model
Indonesia Biofuel Development Strategy
1. Develop investment and financing scheme for biofuel supplybusiness
2. Develop pricing policy/mechanism (for feedstock to biofuelproducts) that is supportive to biofuel development.
3. Increase local content/component for biofuel development.4. Improve feedstock supply system & production infrastructure5. Establish biofuel market rule6. Accelerate land acquirement for biofuel feedstock production7. Increase the participation of regional government and
community in biofuel development8. Prioritize national biofuel supply security
• To prioritize investment for biofuel plant to parties that is readywith biofuel feedstock
• To encourage private sector to invest in biofuels (domestic orabroad)
• To establish special financing for biofuel feedstock development
1. Develop investment/financing scheme for biofuel supply business
2. Develop pricing policy/mechanism (for feedstock to biofuelproducts) that is supportive to biofuel development
Indonesia Biofuel Development Strategy
3. Increase local content/component for biofuel dev.• Capacity building to master biofuel technology• To encourage the use of domestic product in biofuel businesses
4. Improve feedstock supply system and production infrastructure
• Assign jatropha curcas, sugarcane, cassava, coconut andpalm oil as the main plants for feedstock of biofuel and in themean time search and develop other potential biofuel plants
• Ensure the availability of support systems of biofuelproduction including quality seeds, fertilizers and methanol
Indonesia Biofuel Development Strategy (continued)
• Establish quality standards of biofuel as “special fuel”• Establish simple procedures for biofuel quality testing• Establish simple regulation to include biofuel as part of existing
petrofuel market system• Assign standby buyer (off taker) for biofuel feedstock& product
5. Establish biofuel market rule
6. Accelerate land acquirement for biofuel feedstock production• To use idle land, critical land, and convertible production
forest (11 million ha).• To use inactive (idle) plantation land
Indonesia Biofuel Development Strategy (continued)
7. Increase the participation of regional government and communityin biofuel development
• Facilitate the establishment of Nucleus-Plasma plantationscheme for biofuel plantation
• Develop business scheme that maximize added value to thecommunity
• Include biofuel development in regional development budget
• Impose domestic market obligation or export tax for securingdomestic biofuel supply while maintaining national andbusiness interest considerations
8. Prioritize national biofuel supply security
Total area: 49 million hectares
Area Suitable For Jatropha Curcas Plantation
Total area palm/coconut/cassava/sugarcane: 6.6 million hectares
Land Area Suitable for Palm Oil, Cassava, Sugarcane
Thank [email protected]
8:15 AM Tue, Nov 20, 2007
BIODIESEL
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Biodiesel development projection
8:15 AM Tue, Nov 20, 2007
LAND
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Impact of biodiesel development on land use and availability