Indonesia’s Tryst with Destiny

The 2014 Elections, Haji Joko Widodo (Jokowi’s) Candidacy and 16 Years (Dwi-

Windu) of Reformasi (1998-2014)

Peter Carey (Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Humanities,

University of Indonesia)

Presentation to City University Hong Kong, 10 March 2014

1. What is at Stake?

2. The 2014 Elections • Will determine Indonesia’s leadership for the next

five years (2014-19) • Will provide (we hope) a Vision for Indonesia for

the next 20 years and its 2045 Independence Centenary

• Get a Handle on Corruption (Indonesia 117 in the current listing of 174 countries – Transparency International)

• Pro-Poor Policies (education and health) • Enhance Indonesia’s Competitiveness & Culture

of Excellence

3. 16 Years of Reformasi (1998-2014): The Habibie (1998-99) & Gus Dur (Abdurrahman

Wahid, 1999-2001) Administrations

4. What was Achieved in the Early Reformasi Era?

Habibie (1998-99) • Settlement in East Timor

(30 August 1999) • Decentralisation

legislation (April 1999) • First Free elections since

1955 (April-Sept 1999) • Dismantling of the New

Order Surveillance State and freedom of press

Abdurrahman Wahid (1999-2001) – 10 Initiatives inter alia

• Ending of Restrictions on Chinese Minority (3.2% of pop – 75% control of private corporate assets)

• Reform of TNI (Indon Army) & its Pol Privileges

• Human Rights Ministry (abolition of Min of Info & Social Affairs)

• Abolition of TAP MPRS XXIX – banning study of Marxism-Leninism etc

5. Even Megawati (2001-4) introduced some major reforms

• Establishment of State Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) (2003-4)

• Introduction of Direct Elections for President, Vice-President, Governors and Mayors for April-Sept 2004 Elections in which she lost to SBY

6. And SBY’s Ten Years (2004-14)?

Just two major initiatives –both in his first five-year term (2004-9)

1. Aceh Settlement (Helsinki Accords) (2005)

2. Conversion of 58 million households from kerosene to LPG for cooking (2006-9)

7. Neither were SBY’s Doing – in Both Cases his then Vice-President Jusuf Kalla (JK) Played a

Major Role

• An astute South Sulawesi (Makassar) businessman – JK was able to ‘deliver’ on both initiatives because he paid attention to detail, had an appropriate sense of urgency, and took risks – the art of the possible in politics

8. In SBY’s Second Five-Year Term there have been NO major reforms Despite much talk – none of the following

promised in the election have been achieved:

1. Reform of the Bureaucracy

2. Eradication of Corruption (one of SBY’s major initial campaign promises)

3. Reform of the Agricultural Sector

4. Establishment of a Top Quality Education Curriculum in High Schools and Universities

9. And what has been the result in Terms of Education?

• Indonesia’s spending on R&D (research & development) is 0.8 percent of GDP (ie 150 million USD per annum). This is 45 times smaller than Japan and a quarter that of Thailand. Malaysia allocates 30 percent of its Education budget to research (Kompas, 6 March 2014) – 10 times more than Indonesia.

• Between 2001 and 2010, Indonesia (230 million pop) published 7,847 scientific articles in international learned journals and registered just 11 industrial patents; Thailand (69 million) and Malaysia (26 million) each published 30,000 articles – and registered 67 and 263 patents respectively.

• Indonesia is the country least able to explain itself to the outside world – 90 percent of all scholarly articles on the country being published by foreigners (or NRIs*)

[NRI = Non-Resident Indonesians]

10. And health?

• Indonesia has the third worst death rate for birthing mothers in South and Southeast Asia (only Nepal and Burma are higher) 220 per 100,000 live births (compare Singapore, 3; Malaysia, 29; Thailand, 48; Vietnam, 59 and Philippines, 99).

• It has the third highest number of Leprosy cases in the world after India and Brazil with 18,000 new cases a year and over 800,000 former leprosy cases living in the community.

11. There is much Talk about Indonesia’s

Demographic Bonus during the next 25 years (2012-35) – but what is the reality? • The ‘demographic bonus’ is the decline (set to reach

46.9 percent in 2030) of those in the 0-14 and 65+ age groups (ie non-economically productive citizens) compared to those aged between 15-64 and supposedly in work.

• But to benefit Indonesia needs: (a) to effect a significant increase in public health; (b) to raise the quality of education and vocational training; and (c) to create sufficient jobs for the three million entering the job market every year. At present 75 million people (or 65.7 percent of the Indonesian workforce) lacks a senior high school or college education. Without education and health there will be no ‘bonus’.

12. What has happened to the Promise to Eradicate Corruption?

13. SBY’s Weak and Cautious Leadership and Lack of Vision

• SBY has had to govern in his last five-year term with the support of small Islamic parties (PKS, PAN etc) – hence the lack of reference to the Pancasila State Ideology – formulated by Sukarno (1945, Indonesia’s first President, 1945-66) and implemented by General Suharto and his New Order Government (1966-98).

14. Sukarno’s Inclusive Nationalist Vision and Suharto’s Secularist Pancasila

State are both endangered legacies

15. But is everything doom and gloom?

Not at all! Jokowi and Ahok at inauguration 20 Oct 2012

Surabaya Mayor Tri Rismaharini

Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo

16. Habibie’s Decentralisation Legislation (April 1999) & Megawati’s Electoral Reforms (2003-4)

have put new blood into the system • Hajjah Tri Rismaharini (PDIP), elected as the reforming mayor

of Surabaya in 2010. • Haji Joko Widodo (Jokowi) (PDIP) and Basuki Tjahaja Purnomo

(Ahok) (Gerindra) elected in September 2012 as Governor and Deputy Governor of Jakarta.

• Haji Ganjar Pranowo (PDIP) elected as Governor of Central Java, 23 August 2013

All Reformers, all committed to pro-poor policies and to the practice of ‘blusukan’ (going out to meet the people directly and ‘hearing the cries of the world’ – rather than sitting in air-conditioned offices). Within their first 9 months in office Jokowi and Ahok saved 3 trillion (30 million USD) or 10% of the Jakarta (DKI) 30 trillion (300 million USD) annual budget

17. But there are also 37 local authorities where Nepotism and Family Influence rule the roost:

The Ratu Atut Khosiyah Dynasty in Banten (West Java) – Nemesis of the Constitutional Court ’s chief justice (Akil

Mochtar)

18. And even the First Family have their secrets: SBY and wife Ani Yudhoyono (a ‘Cabinet of One’

according to Australian Intelligence)

19. So how does this effect the election?

• Political ‘dynasties’ – the oligarchs of modern Indonesia and former New Order politicians and generals are keen to recruit the new blood at the grassroots for their respective bids for Presidential office in 2014.

• Much will depend on how votes are cast in the 9 April legislative elections – individual parties must garner more than 25 percent of the popular vote (20 percent of DPR seats) to field presidential candidates at the 9 July first presidential round.

20. Possible Pairings: Prabowo (Gerindra presidential candidate) with

Ahok (Basuki Tjahaja Purnama), DKI Deputy Governor, as his running mate

21. And less credible but another possibility

General Wiranto (Hanura) and his Mycaenas – Media

Mogul Harry Tanusudibyo

22. And what of the former State Party – Golkar (Golongan Karya)?

• By rights it should be positioned to do well as it is a tightly-run party with strong Outer Island constituencies (Sumatra, Sulawesi in particular) where it can gain many DPR seats.

• Former partner in Government in SBY’s first administration (2004-9) with his Vice-President, Jusuf Kalla, hailing from Golkar.

23. But it has Major Public-Relations Problems

Golkar Secretary-General and Presidential Candidate – Aburizal Bakrie (ARB)

And his Sidoarjo (East Java) mud-flow – a result of wildcat drilling in 2010 – hundreds of hectares of prime farmland ruined with minimal compensation for Victims

24. But with Jokowi’s Candidacy Declared Megawati’s PDIP must lay aside dynastic

ambitions to prosper

25. Another ‘Grand Refus’ (Big Refusal) of the Duc de Chambord in 1873

which ended all hopes of a Restoration of the French monarchy

26. No Longer in Megawati’s Pocket

27. Or Paired with her ambitious daughter, Puan Maharani, as Vice-

President

28. But with a Senior Political Figure such as Jusuf Kalla

with Appeal to non-Javanese Voters

29. Or a Known Reformer with a Good Track Record:

National Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) Chief, Abraham Samad

30. Or a Veteran Politician (Akbar Tanjung)

or former TNI General (Eddy Pramono)

31. Or the Leader of an Islamic Party Hatta Rajasa (PAN) –

Or former Constitutional Court Head – Muhammad Mahfud MD- known to be interested in such a

pairing

32. Speculation is Useless – but what is certain is that Jokowi has

specific appeal to a Javanese Constituency

33. As a Ratu Adil (Just King) in a tradition of Javanese Rulers/Leaders

From Airlangga (991-1049) to Diponegoro (1785-1855)

34. And their Struggle to Establish a Righteous Kingdom –

with justice and plenty for the wong cilik (‘little people’)

35. So who is this Jokowi? Like Airlangga, Joko Tingkir (Pajang), Ki Pamenahan (Mataram) and Diponegoro (Yogya) – he was raised

in a village/kampung world

36. Yet with Satria (noble warrior) and Priyayi (court official) standards – and ability to relate easily to all classes

of society

37. A High Value on Education and Personal Standards – Budi Luhur (Nobility

of Character) and Personal Simplicity

38. But the Agenda for any Incoming Administration is daunting: The initial Six Big Challenges

• Job creation

• Major spending on infrastructure (350 trillion IDR/USD 3.5 billion alone for Trans-Sumatra Highway)

• Professionalism in public life – instillation of a culture of excellence and bureaucratic reform

• Education and R&D capacity

• Re-invigoration of Pancasila as State Ideology

• Resolution of Religious Intolerance by bring common sense to bear on the interpretation of religious scripture and safeguards against the “tyranny” of the majority

39. And the last Six Major Agenda Items

• Enhancement (indeed establishment) of a Rule-of-law state (rechtstaat)

• Rising to the Challenge of the 2015 ASEAN Free Trade Zone

• Enhancement and extension of the Powers of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK)

• Development of a basic welfare state safety net for the most economically challenged (eg Kartu Jakarta Pintar and Kartu Jakarta Sehat introduced by Jokowi)

• Development of facility with English and Mandarin • Introduction of a New Economic Policy (NEP) for the

development and empowerment of indigenous (pribumi) entrepreneurs and business people.

40. And Another SBY Time Bomb - The Rapid Spread of Religious Intolerance and

Extremism (2008-14)

Ruins of Bekasi Protestant Church (Gereja Yasmin) after demolition by an excavator ordered in by local Mayor pressured by local Front Pembela Islam militants

Thank You for your patience

And watch this Space!