INDONESIA PROPERTY MARKET OUTLOOK - … PROPERTY MARKET OUTLOOK Pattaya, Thailand October 26, 2012...
Transcript of INDONESIA PROPERTY MARKET OUTLOOK - … PROPERTY MARKET OUTLOOK Pattaya, Thailand October 26, 2012...
PRESENTATION AGENDA
MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT
MAJOR INSTRUCTIONS
• CBD Office • Retail Market • Condominium • Industrial Estate
• First Media • Bank Mandiri • Indosat
Economic Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP (% growth) 6.5% 4.5% 6.2% 6.5% 6.3%*
Inflation (%, year end) 5.7% 4.9% 6.5% 3.79% 4.58%*
Central Bank Rate 8.0% 6.5% 6.5% 5.75% 5.75%
Lending Rate 13.0% 13.0% 12.5% 10.5% 10.5%
Time Deposit Rate 7.3% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
NPL Bank 4.8% 4.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
JSX Index 2,400 2,527 3,701 3,857 4,200*
Currency (USD) 8,945 9,300 9,100 9,000 9,600*
*) As per August 2012 *) As per August 2012 *) As per September 2012
JSX index hit 4,200 key level in September 2012
Continued strong and stable economic performance :
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT CBD OFFICE
Lease inquiries remained very active during the second quarter 2012 with most space requirements between 200 – 400 sqm mainly from existing tenant’s planning for expansion.
Banking and Insurance are the most active sectors for premise expansion.
Transactions :
LEASE
BII - Sentral Senayan 3 Permata - World Trade Center 2 DBS - Ciputra Tower BNI Life - Landmark Tower AXA Insurance - AXA Tower
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT CBD OFFICE
Capital value of strata unit continue to reach record breaking price, i.e USD 3,000 – 4,500 for new office in the CBD area.
Companies with strong cash flow relocate from lease to owned strata office.
Strata projects in Simatupang belt (non CBD) also enjoy high pre-commitment sale
STRATA
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT CBD OFFICE
The completion of AXA Tower at Jl. Prof. DR. Satrio added 60.000 sqm office space to the CBD office stock, bringing the total cumulative supply to 4.4 million sqm as per second quarter 2012.
Overall vacancy rate is only 8%.
SUPPLY
CBD JAKARTA MARKET STATISTIC
SUBMARKET INVENTORY OVERALL UNDER YTD
VACANCY RATE CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION
COMPLETIONS
Sudirman 1,763,300.00 8.30% 128,150.00 74,150.00 51,976.00 254,398.00
Kuningan 1,067,050.00 8.50% 119,264.00 0.00 13,140.00 219,380.00
Gatot Subroto 613,800.00 5.40% 25,000.00 0.00 50,608.00 208,560.00
Thamrin 500,850.00 5.50% 0.00 0.00 17,262.00 230,364.00
Satrio 175,364.00 20.60% 40,000.00 60,000.00 24,300.00 195,000.00
Other 258,450.00 6.80% 51,650.00 0.00 19,170.00 255,960.00
TOTALS 4,378,814.00 8.00% 364,064.00 134,150.00 RP. 176,456.00 RP. 240,144.00
ABSOPTION
OVERALL
DIRECT NET
GRADE A AVERAGE
NET EFFECTIVE 2Q12
(RP/SQM/MTH)
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT CBD OFFICE
The average gross rental (base rental + service charge) reach Rp 185.000 per sqm per month.
Grade-A offices continue to enjoy the highest rental increment of 8.8% to achieve Rp 240.000 per sqm per month.
Rental is expected to continue to increase as most landlords remain bullish with the strong market demand.
RENTAL RATE
KL TOWER 421 m
Kuala Lumpur Malaysia
ORIENTAL PEARL TOWER 468 m
Shanghai China
OSTANKINO TOWER 540 m
Moskwa Russia
CANADA’S NATIONAL TOWER 553 m
Toronto Canada
MENARA JAKARTA 558 m Jakarta
Indonesia
Comparison with Other Towers in The World
BURJ KHALIFA 828 m Dubai
United Arab Emirates
SHANGHAI TOWER 632 m
Shanghai China
SIGNATURE TOWER 638 m Jakarta
Indonesia
TAIPEI 101 508 m Taipei
Taiwan
ONE WTC 541 m
New York City USA
SHANGHAI WFC 492 m
Shanghai China
PETRONAS TOWERS 452 m
Kuala Lumpur Malaysia
Comparison with Other Buildings in The World
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT RETAIL MARKET
Jabodetabek’s vibrant and strong market continue to attract major Foreign Retail players to try their luck with the latest arrival of Central Department Store (Thailand), IKEA (Swedish).
NEW BIG PLAYERS
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT RETAIL MARKET
With almost no new supply, the average occupancy rate of the Jakarta retail market by end of June 2012 had slightly increased by 0.4% (yoy) to reach 81.4%.
Total cumulative retail space supply in Jakarta is 3.600.000 sqm comprising of 68.7% lease retail center and 31.3% strata title center as per June 2012.
DEMAND & SUPPLY
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT RETAIL MARKET
RETAIL BASE RENTS
Strong competition in the retail market is expected to continue and base rentals and service charges expected to remain stable.
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT CONDOMINIUM
The rise of young professional middle income family and the change of lifestyle have been attributed to the surge of condominium project sales activities.
The pre-sales rate of the proposed condo projects stood at 61.6% and predicted to increase to 65.52% on the second quarter 2012.
SALES DEMAND
FOUR SEASONS JAKARTA
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT CONDOMINIUM
Due to the land scarcity in the CBD and prime area, the condominium price has been surging in the past two years following significant increase in the land price.
The significant increase in the number of expatriates demanding to rent condo unit has also led significant increase in the rental price.
People who bought CBD or prime area Condo units in 2009 – 2010 have witnessed their investment double in some projects.
CAPITAL VALUE GROWTH
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT INDUSTRIAL ESTATE
The acquisition of 100 Ha land at Suryacipta Industrial Estate by Automotive Giant Toyota has prompted wave of Japanese Manufacturers to relocate to Cikarang – Karawang Industrial Estates
The current spat between China – Japan has further increased the Japanese’s desire to relocate their base to South East Asia (Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia).
Although deemed lack of infrastructure, Indonesia is seen as having conducive business climate, less expensive labors and strong local market.
REGIONAL MARKET SHIFT
FOUR SEASONS JAKARTA
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT INDUSTRIAL ESTATE
Demand for industrial land by foreign players will continue to remain strong.
Some Industrial Developers in Bekasi – Cikarang – Karawang area even suspend sales of new land due to sharp increase in price
Relatively higher land price and longer delivery period may force a shift of partial demand toward Serang and Cilegon Industrial Estate.
However due to better infrastructure, Bekasi – Cikarang – Karawang are expected to remain as the preferred location in the near future.
OVERVIEW
The long awaited infrastructure projects such as the modernization and expansion of Jakarta Airport, the development of MRT and new Seaport will start soon as funding has recently been secured
FUTURE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT
A new Seaport (Cilamaya) will be developed to reduce traffic congestion at existing Tanjung Priok Port
Located near the Karawang / Cikarang Industrial Estates
Funded by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
PROPERTY MARKET SNAPSHOT
MAJOR INSTRUCTION
Market Research of Cable TV & Broadband Internet Potential Market in Greater Jakarta with over 1,7 million prospective subscribers findings
FIRST MEDIA
SOUTH JAKARTA
Kec.Pesanggrahan
Kec.Jagakarsa
Kec.Cilandak
100%
100%
20%
80%
40%
60%
Kec.Pasar Minggu
40%
60%
Kec.Pancoran
20%
80%Kec.MampangPrapatan
30%
Kec.Tebet
30%
Kec.Kebayoran Lama
70%
70%
Kec.Setiabudi
100%
Kec.KebayoranBaru
100%
First Media Coverage
Non Coverage
Coverage Non Coverage VPC Survey
Potential HP
121,411 65,800 37,020
MAJOR INSTRUCTION
Study on Location Selection and Development Recommendation for Bank Mandiri Regional Main Office located all over Indonesia (12 cities)
BANK MANDIRI
• Study on Asset Optimization and Space Planning for 240 Indosat’s Assets located in 30 provinces all over Indonesia
• Including Gallery, MSC, BTS, SCC, Data Centre, Office Buildings
MAJOR INSTRUCTION I N D O S A T
Current Condition – Wisma Antara
Enclosed Office in perimeter blocking natural light comes to the open area
Dual reception in one floor.
Different color of workstation
Usage of half window-glass partition does not allow natural light expose through to the open area.
Office, 8th floor - Formal Configuration
• Gross Area : 1580 m²
• Semi Gross : 1334 m2
• Core area : 245 m2 (15%)
• Density : 1 : 9.5
• Clear and good circulation
Benchmarking - Summary
Company CEO CEO/ Director
Group Head
Division Head
Manager Staff
Indosat
Benchmark 1 NA
NA
Benchmark 2 NA
NA
Benchmark 3
NA
25 m2 19.5 m2 4.06 m2 2.03 m2 45.94 m2
19.7 m2 2.00 m2 9.28 m2 32.5 m2
2.25 m2 9.18 m2 19.00 m2
5.5 m2 3.5 m2 3.5 m2 30.0 m2
41.75 m2
Study of Other Telco Company Digi Telecommunication Head Quarters, Subang
Size of building
DiGi Telecommunications Corporate Headquarters in Subang Hi-Tech Industrial Park in Shah Alam, Selangor resides on a land area of 6.5 acres, with built-up area of 30.658 m2; accomodates for more than 1000 employees.
Open concept
The office concept is an open-office concept - with free seating for all, helping with teamwork, reducing hierarchy and most importantly improving communication - ultimately creating a leading, innovative workplace. DiGi workers, including its management, had only a locker to keep their belongings where top management and workers shared the same facilities and where the bureaucracy of hierarchy was eliminated.
The clusters of work areas were developed to promote the sharing of knowledge, encourage
creativity and innovation.
INDOSAT OWNED ASSETS
BOD INSIGHT •ASSET LIGHT COMPANY •ECONOMIC PROFIT •CONSOLIDATED OFFICE •MSC PREFERED NOT TO BE RELOCATED •NO NEW OFFICE INVESTMENT
VALUATION PROCESS BUILDING AUDIT
SPACE PROGRAMMING
ASSETS CLASSIFICATION
NON OPERATIONAL ASSETS •Unutilized Asset • Non Technical Building : Villa, Warehouse, Training Centre •Land Rental •Non Marketable Asset : remote area •Vacant land
OPERATIONAL ASSETS
•Operational Office
• Exclusive office/branch
• Technical building :MSC, SKKL, BTS
NON POTENTIAL
ASSETS
DISPOSE
Asset Optimization Guidelines
OPERATIONAL ASSETS
• Operational Office
• Exclusive office/branch
• Technical building :MSC, SKKL, BTS
NON POTENTIAL ASSETS •Uneconomical operated asset •Low density employee occupancy • Surplus assets : office, MSC, BTS
POTENTIAL ASSETS •High density employee occupancy •Appreciating value , limited supply •Special Asset (historical site) • SKKL (SCC)
DISPOSE
POTENTIAL ASSETS •High removal cost MSC • Essential BTS
SALE & LEASE BACK
RETAIN
Asset Optimization Guidelines
HBU ANALYSIS
FINANCIALLY FEASIBLE & MAXIMALY
PRODUCTIVE
SPACE PROGRAMMING
PERMUTATION ANALYSIS
RECOMMENDATION & SOLUTION
HBU
PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE
LEGALLY PERMISSIBLE
NON HBU
RETAIN
POTENTIAL ASSETS
DISPOSE
Asset Optimization Guidelines
List of Buildings to be considered KPPTI
Lease from Telkom until 2024 which likely to be returned to Telkom; to be considered as ‘temporary location’. Building will not be considered in permutation scenarios
Currently with maximum KLB; however is possible to change KLB for further development
Possible extenstion of 2nd tower; giving an extra of 13.119 m2 for future development
Wisma Antara
Lintasarta (TB Simatupang)
Dan Mogot
IM2-Kebagusan
Old office building with low rental rate
Building located in a non Office Zone area. Building will not be considered in permutation scenarios. With max. KLB, another 54.971 m2 can be built
SKKL-Ancol Equipment building located in a non Office Zone area. Unlikely to be sold. With ma. KLB another 18.193 m2 can be built.
To be considered as
the main buildings in the
permutation
To be considered as the supporting buildings in the
permutation
Summary of Permutation
NPV
(in mio IDR)
Straight Line Cost
(in mio IDR)Rank
KPPTI
Market
Value 11th
Year
LintasArta
Market
Value in
11th Year
1 283.034 498.615 9 1.035.000 204.000
2 325.589 574.375 11 1.035.000 204.000
3 290.515 502.103 10 1.035.000 204.000
4a 225.374 641.076 8 - 204.000
4b 127.219 438.825 3 - 204.000
5 182.819 565.317 6 - 204.000
6a 173.276 577.711 5 - -
6b 75.268 375.756 2 - -
7 167.772 460.278 4 - 204.000
12 56.042 303.713 1 - 204.000
13 220.061 281.068 7 1.035.000 -
Notes1 Building's market value by 11th year in 2022 are not calculated in permutation analysis2 Building's value can be calculated with market value or booked value
Scenario
4b. KPPTI and Wisma Antara move to new leased building in non CBD
5. KPPTI move to new leased building in CBD
6a. Consolidated to new leased building in CBD
1. Stay as It Is
2. Wisma Antara move to new leased building in CBD
3. Wisma Antara move to new leased building in non CBD
13. Move Wisma Antara and TB Simatupang to KPPTI (with increase of KLB)
4a. KPPTI and Wisma Antara move to new leased building in CBD
7. KPPTI move to new leased building in CBD; Wisma Antara to TB Simatupang
12. Move KPPTI to Wisma Antara (unrealistic due to limited area in W Antara)
6b. Consolidated to new leased building in non-CBD