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INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES : TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019
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Transcript of INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SUPPLY CHALLENGES : TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2010-2019
11
INDONESIA ELECTRICITYSUPPLY CHALLENGES:TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN
2010-2019
PT PLN (PERSERO)
22
ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019
1. The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)
2. The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is forecasted by assuming an average economic growth of 6.2% and an average population growth of 1.17%.
It is anticipated that the sales for those years would not be constrained, as all of the power plants of the fast track program would have been already in operation.
3. Electrification ratio increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% by the end of 2019.
4. DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not been taken into account.
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JAVA-BALI SYSTEM
DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019
IB : 10.2%
21 TWh
54 TWh
IT : 10,6%
11 TWh28 TWh
JB : 8,97%
115 TWh
252 TWh
Electricity Demand growth average 9.3%/year
NAD72,7%NAD
72,7%Sumut75,5%Sumut75,5%
Sumbar
67,6%
Sumbar
67,6%
Riau + Kepri44,7%
Riau + Kepri44,7%
Babel48,4%Babel48,4%
Lampung47,1%
Lampung47,1%
Jabar+Banten
64,95%
Jabar+Banten
64,95%
Jateng+Yogya
70,2%
Jateng+Yogya
70,2%
Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu
50,3%
Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu
50,3%
Jatim61,6%Jatim61,6%
Bali76,2%Bali
76,2%
NTB29,9%NTB
29,9%NTT
21,7%NTT
21,7%
Kalbar49,5%Kalbar49,5%
Kalselteng
56,3%
Kalselteng
56,3%
Kaltim53,9%Kaltim53,9%
Sulutenggo
51,2%
Sulutenggo
51,2%
Sulteng
47,64%
Sulteng
47,64%
Sulselrabar55,8%
Sulselrabar55,8%
Maluku53,5%
Maluku53,5%
Papua + Irjabar27,8%
Papua + Irjabar27,8%
Category :Category :
> 60 %
41 - 60 %
20 - 40 %
INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO 2009 sekita63%
55
POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING
1. Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power plants are retired as soon as more effcient plants are available.
2. Generation expansion planning is made on least-cost principle, by looking for generation configuration that have minimum system costs.
3. However, development of renewables (especially geothermal and some hydro) is encouraged, by treating these as fixed plants prior to optimisation process.
4. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of <1 day/year is used as reliability criteria during planning process.
The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50% range based on net dependable capacity. Rental power plants and excess power are not taken into account.
66
5. Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java Bali system, yet for outside Java – Bali system gas-fired power plants are considered only if there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving terminal is also considered as one option of gas supply.
6. Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants is used to substitute oil-fired powerplants for smaller systems, if there is no local primary energy resource available.
7. Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000 MW supercritical would be introduced into the Java-Bali system.
8. PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in IPP development.
POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING
7
1,054
3,553
5,141
1,479
3,178
1,440 1,738 1,681
3,425
4,699 5,248
117
413
1,258
2,896
2,763
3,329 2,282
3,461
2,238
936
890
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
IPP
PLN
Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019PLN Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average 4800MW/year
GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN
8
Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa)
1. PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons. Zelan+Tronoh+Priamanaya, Contract Signed 21March2007
2. PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons. Chengda+Truba Jurong, Contract Signed 21March2007
3. PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons. Sinomach+CNEEC+PT Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 21March2007
4. PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin PE+Mitra Selaras+Hutama Energi, Contract Signed 7August2007
5. PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri, Contract Signed 12March2007
6. PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7Augus2007
7. PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons. Shanghai Electric+Maxima Infrastructure, Contract Signed 7August2007
8. PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed 7August2007
9. PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW, Sinomach+CNEEC+Penta Adi Samudra, Contract Signed 25April2008
10. PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW, Contract 22December2008, COD 2012
9
Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)
1. PLTU 2 Sumut-Pangkalan Susu, 2x220MW, Cons. Guangdong+Nintec+Bagus Karya2. PLTU Kepri-Tg. Balai Karimun, 2x7MW, Cons. Shangdong+Rekadaya Elektrika3. PLTU NAD-Meulaboh, 2x110MW, Synohydro4. PLTU 1 Riau-Bengkalis, 2x10MW, Cons. Guandong
Machinery+Modaco+Kelsri+Angkasa Buana
5. PLTU 2 Riau-Selat Panjang, 2x7MW, Bouwstead Maxitherm6. PLTU Sumbar-Teluk Sirih, 2x212MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri7. PLTU Lampung-Tarahan Baru, 2x100MW, Jiangxi Electric Power Design Institute+Adhi
Karya
8. PLTU 3 Babel-Bangka Baru, 2x30MW, Cons. Truba,+China Shanghai Group9. PLTU 4 Babel-Belitung 2x16,5MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Poeser Indonesia10. PLTU 1 Kalbar-Parit Baru, 2x50MW, Cons. Bumi Rama Nusantara+Altons11. PLTU 2 Kalbar-Bengkayang, 2x27,5MW, Cons. Guangdong Machinery+Wijaya Karya12. PLTU Kalsel-Asam Asam, 2x65MW, Cons. Chengda+Wijaya Karya
13. PLTU 1 Kalteng, Pulang Pisau, 2x60MW14. PLTU 1 NTB-Bima, 2x10MW, Guandong+Modaco Enersys+Angkasa Buana Cipta15. PLTU 2 NTB-Lombok,2x25MW, Barata Indonesia16. PLTU 1 NTT-Ende 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika17. PLTU 2 NTT-Kupang, 2x16,5MW, Shandong Mavhinery+Poeser Indonesia
10
Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)
18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi
19. PLTU 2 Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya
20. PLTU Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika
21. PLTU Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan Engineering+Bagus Karya
22. PLTU Maluku Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika
23. PLTU 3 Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya Technical+Boustead Maxitherm
Fast Track Program Phase 2
• More geothermal projects will be developed, and large coal fired power plant in Java to be excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2. In addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Project will be included in the program.
The composition of project will consist of: geothermal 48%, hydro 12%, gas combined cycle 14% and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26%.
The capacity of the projects will be as follows:
Java-Bali: geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW and gas combined cycle 1,200 MW.
Outside Java-Bali: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174 MW, geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle 240 MW.
Total Indonesia: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174 MW, geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle 1,440 MW, totalling 9,963 MW.
The second phase of fast track program will consist of 3,649 MW of PLN’s project and 6,314 MW of IPP project.
The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 project. This project is very strategic in that it will meet the future demand by the year 2011-2012, however the feasibility of the project will subject to gas supply availability.
The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage. This project is very strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to replace the role of oil fired plants.
Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure the success of the projects within the time frame of the program (up to 2014), geothermal developers must take immediate project preparation and PLN must make immediate geothermal IPP procurement.
Fast Track Program Phase 2
Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2
REGIONSteam
Coal PP (MW)
Combined Cycle PP
(MW)
Geo PP (MW)
Hydro PP(MW)
Total (MW)
JAVA-BALI - 1.200 2.137 1.000 4.337
OUTSIDE JAVA-BALI
2.616 240 2.596 174 5.626
TOTAL2.616
(26%)
1.440
(14%)4.733 (48%)
1.174 (12%)
9.963
(100%)
SUMATERA• PLTA : 174 MW• PLTP : 2285 MW• PLTU : 1100 MW• PLTGU : 120 MW
Map of Fast Track Program Phase 2
KALIMANTAN• PLTU : 840 MW• PLTGU : 120 MW
SULAWESI• PLTP : 195 MW• PLTU : 418 MW
MALUKU• PLTP : 40 MW• PLTU : 44 MW
PAPUA• PLTU : 114
MWNTT
• PLTP : 46 MW
• PLTU : 30 MW
NTB• PLTP :30
MW• PLTU :70
MW
JAMALI• PLTP : 2.137 MW• PLTU : 0 MW• PLTGU : 1.200 MW• PLTA : 1.000 MW
TOTAL• PLTA : 1174 MW• PLTP : 4733 MW• PLTU : 2616 MW• PLTGU : 1440 MW
TOTAL : 9963 MW
Investment of Fast Track Program Phase 2
Capacity (MW)
Investment (Million USD)
Capacity (MW)
Investment (Million USD)
Steam Coal PP 380 549 2,236 3,231
Combined Cycle PP 1,440 1,210 - -
Geothermal PP 655 917 4,078 10,195
Hydro PP 1,174 1,148 - -
Total 3,649 3,824 6,314 13,426
PLN IPP
Plant
1616
TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLANNINGJAVA-BALI 2008-2018
KEBUTUHAN TRANSMISI JAWA-BALI 2008-2018Satuan kms
TRANSMISI 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
500 kV AC 159 127 4 329 920 606 444 100 60 340 3,089
500 kV DC 350 350
150 kV 564 3,497 1,403 1,120 727 482 560 282 644 276 12 9,567
70 kV 14 80 10 22 126
TOTAL 578 3,735 1,541 1,146 1,056 1,402 1,166 726 1,094 336 352 13,132
KEBUTUHAN TRAFO JAWA-BALI 2008-2018Satuan MVA
TRAFO 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
500/150 kV 1,666 4,666 3,000 2,000 1,000 4,000 3,500 3,000 6,000 1,000 29,832
150/70 kV 160 490 160 100 910
150/20 kV 1,820 4,800 7,920 4,036 3,570 3,480 3,330 3,690 5,370 5,160 1,980 45,156
70/20 kV 60 460 190 90 90 80 80 150 190 130 100 1,620
TOTAL 3,706 10,416 11,270 6,126 4,660 7,560 6,910 6,840 11,560 5,290 3,180 77,518
17
Project Name COD Financing Plan
Transmisi 275 kV Sumatera (Payakumbuh – Padangsidempuan)
2012 Loan JICA
Transmisi 275 kV Rengat – Garuda Sakti (220 km)
2014 unallocated
Transmisi Sumatera-Jawa ± 500 kV HVDC 2016 USD 2,3 milyar, Loan JICA
Jawa-Bali Crossing 500 kV HVAC 2015 USD 328 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB
Interkoneksi Kalbar-Serawak 275 kV HVAC 2012 USD 101 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB
Interkoneksi Sumatera-Malaysia ± 250 kV HVDC
2015 USD 353 juta, akan diusulkan ke ADB/JICA
Perkuatan Transmisi Sistem Jakarta dan Bali 2011 2012
USD 420 juta, KE
Perkuatan Transmisi Kota-Kota Besar di Jawa
2012 USD 250 juta, IBRD
Transmisi 500 kV AC Tj Jati - Ungaran – Pemalang – Mandirancan – Indramayu (±500 km)
2015 USD 300 juta, unallocated
DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION PLAN
18
ADDIONAL DISTRIBUTION FACILITY UP TO 2019:•MV : 181,000KMS 16,500 KMS/YEAR•LV : 249,500KMS 22,700 KMS/YEAR•DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER : 35,000 MVA 3,200 MVA/YEAR•ADDITIONAL COSTUMER : 27,4 MILION 2,5 MIO/YEAR
PLN INVESTMENT
19
-
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
7,000.0
8,000.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Juta USD INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 64,7 BILLION, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBISHMENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT
Column1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 JumlahPembangkit 3,777.0 3,495.3 3,188.3 2,851.1 3,143.0 2,427.4 2,854.7 3,548.0 4,270.4 4,304.7 4,721.4 38,581.2 Transmisi 1,065.8 1,985.9 1,939.7 1,297.4 1,145.7 1,521.7 2,072.9 1,227.4 592.2 719.7 851.6 14,419.9 Distribusi 598.2 774.4 1,080.4 1,006.8 947.5 987.1 1,165.6 1,185.9 1,300.2 1,337.7 1,304.4 11,688.3 Total Investasi 5,441.0 6,255.6 6,208.4 5,155.3 5,236.1 4,936.1 6,093.3 5,961.3 6,162.8 6,362.1 6,877.4 64,689.4
PLN + IPP INVESTMENT
20
INVESTMENT PROJECTION UP TO 2019 : USD 83,0 BILLION OR USD 7,6 BILLION PER YEAR, INCLUDING INVESTMENT FOR LIFE EXTENSION/REFURBISMENT EXISTING GENERATION, SPARE IBT
-
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
7,000.0
8,000.0
9,000.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Juta USD
Column1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 JumlahPembangkit 4,858.0 5,100.2 5,099.0 5,369.2 5,810.6 5,061.4 4,901.0 5,194.7 5,483.1 5,026.0 4,987.8 56,891.0 Transmisi 1,065.8 1,985.9 1,939.7 1,297.4 1,145.7 1,521.7 2,072.9 1,227.4 592.2 719.7 851.6 14,419.9 Distribusi 598.2 774.4 1,080.4 1,006.8 947.5 987.1 1,165.6 1,185.9 1,300.2 1,337.7 1,304.4 11,688.3 Total Investasi 6,522.0 7,860.5 8,119.1 7,673.4 7,903.8 7,570.2 8,139.6 7,608.0 7,375.5 7,083.4 7,143.8 82,999.2
PLN PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PLNOn-going dan Committed Project
Muara Karang PLTGU 500 194
Muara Tawar Blok #5 PLTGU 234
Priok Extension PLTGU 500 243
Suralaya #8 PLTU 625
Labuan PLTU 300 300
Teluk Naga/Lontar PLTU 945
Pelabuhan Ratu PLTU 1,050
Indramayu PLTU 990
Rembang PLTU 630
Pacitan PLTU 630
Paiton Baru PLTU 660
Tj. Awar-awar PLTU 700
Cilacap Baru / Adipala PLTU 660
Sub Total On-going & Committed 800 3,399 3,359 243 - 1,360 - - - - -
Rencana
Upper Cisokan PS PLTA 500 500
Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4 PLTGU 150 700 350
Jawa Barat (LNG Terminal) PLTGU 1,500 750
PLTGU Baru PLTGU 1,500
PLTG Baru PLTG 400 600 800
PLTU Baru PLTU 1,000 1,000 3,000
Tangkuban Perahu 1 PLTP 110
Kamojang PLTP 60 40
Kesamben PLTA 37
Kalikonto-2 PLTA 62
Matenggeng PS PLTA 443 443
Grindulu PS PLTA 500 500
Sub Total Rencana - - 150 - 760 650 1,500 1,412 2,380 3,793 4,300
Total PLN 800 3,399 3,509 243 760 2,010 1,500 1,412 2,380 3,793 4,300
PROYEK
IPP PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM
22
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
IPP
On-going dan Committed Project
Kamojang #4 PLTP
Darajat #3 PLTP
Wayang Windu PLTP 110
Bekasi Power PLTGU 130
Cikarang Listrindo PLTGU 100 50
Cirebon PLTU 660
Paiton #3-4 Exp PLTU 815
Tanjung Jati B Exp PLTU 1,320
Celukan Bawang PLTU 130 250
Sub Total On-going & Committed 110 230 710 2,265 250 - - - Rencana
Banten PLTU 660
Madura (1x400 MW) PLTU 400
Bali Timur PLTU 200
Sumatera Mulut Tambang PLTU 1,200
PLTU Jawa Tengah (Infrastruktur) PLTU 1,000 1,000
PLTP Percepatan Tahap 2 IPP PLTP - - - 175 365 785 445 250
Rajamandala PLTA 47
Jatigede PLTA 110
Sub Total Rencana - - - 175 565 1,942 1,845 2,110
Total IPP 110 230 710 2,440 815 1,942 1,845 2,110
Total Tambahan 910 3,629 4,219 2,683 1,575 3,952 3,345 3,522
TOTAL KAPASITAS SISTEM MW 22,796 26,030 30,209 32,816 34,391 38,343 41,688 45,210
RESERVE MARGIN % 29 34 41 39 33 36 35 35
PROYEK
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For the next 10 years
• The average electricity demand would grow at 9.3%/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)
• Total additional generation capacity for Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of 32,636 MW of PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projects
• Development of renewable energy, especially geothermal, is encouraged, by additional 5,006 MW by 2018
• Total additional transmission network would reach 44,257 kms for all voltage levels, and total additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA for all voltage levels.
• Total additional distribution network is 175,013 kms for MV, 222,018 kms for LV, 30,877 MVA for distribution transformers and 25 million new customer connections.
SUMMARY
24
• Total investment needed for Gen + Trans + Dis is US$ 64,69 billion (PLN only) or US$ 82,99 billion (PLN+IPP).
• Investment needed for PLN power plant projects alone is US$ 38,581 billion, and for IPP projects is US$ 18,31 billion.
SUMMARY
2525
Some strategic generation projects:
• CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW, commissioned in 2011-2012.
• Fast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2 with total capacity of 11,355 MW year 2011-2014 (this figure might change due to recent government’s will to promote more geothernal).
• Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014 (WB)
• CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW in 2014-2015.
• CFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in 2016-2017 (transferred to Java Bali system)
• CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in 2015-2017.
SUMMARY
2626
Some strategic transmission projects:
• HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in 2016.
• Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010
• Batam – Bintan interconnected system using sub-sea 150 kV, 2010
• 275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan – Serawak in 2011
• 500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to Kapal/near Denpasar in 2015
SUMMARY
2727
PT PLN (PERSERO)