Indicators of Necessary Storages for Flood and Drought...
Transcript of Indicators of Necessary Storages for Flood and Drought...
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IndicatorsofNecessaryStoragesforFloodandDroughtManagement:Towardsglobalmaps(Theory)
Kuniyoshi Takeuchi andMuhammadMasoodInternationalCentreforWaterHazardandRiskManagement(ICHARM),PublicWorks
ResearchInstitute(PWRI),Tsukuba,Japanand
BangladeshWaterDevelopmentBoard(BWDB),Dhaka,Bangladesh
EricWoodSymposium"ObservationsandModeling AcrossScales"
Princeton,2-3June2016
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Vol.102,1988
SpecialIssueonUS-JapanHydrologicalSeminar,Hawaii,January5-9,1987
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Necessary storagesl Storage is the only means to smooth out the variation
of the flow and make hazards mitigated and resources useful.
l How much smoothing is necessary depends on• Level of variation of inflow• Level of necessary control
• flood channel capacity• target release for water use
• Allowable rate of failure
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Necessary storages
l There are various ways of calculating necessary storages under a given level of control and a rate of failure.
l Mass curve, simulation methodsl The use of FDC and DDC is another.
Flood Duration Curves and
Drought Duration CurvesKikkawa & Takeuchi, JSCE1975, Takeuchi and Kikkawa, JSCE 1980, Takeuchi, WRR1986, Takeuchi, JH1988, Masood and Takeuchi, JDR 2015
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http://rpitt.eng.ua.edu/Workshop/WSErorionControl/Module4/Module4.htm
For Precipitation
Inte
nsity
(Inch
es/h
our)
Duration (minutes)
Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves
Longer time scale~years
Drought
Discharge
Instantaneous values
Moving averages
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MRI-AGCM3.2S1979-2003
Bias corrected by EU WFD
Simulated by BTOP Model (Takeuchi &
Ao, 1999)daily in 20km mesh
The Brahmaputra dischargeat the outlet Bahadurabad
3 years
1 year
FDC-DDC Flood Duration Curves
Drought Duration Curves
FDC
DDC
Fix a time length and find the necessary storage within it.
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Prob max()∈+,-.
1𝑚 1 𝑥( ≥ 𝑓5∗ 𝑚
()789:
(;()
≤ 𝛼
Prob min()∈+,-.
1𝑚 1 𝑥( ≤ 𝑓@ 𝑚
()789:
(;()
≤ 𝛽
FDC
DDC
Annual max/min m-day moving average discharge
Definitions of Flood Duration Curves 𝑓5∗ 𝑚and Drought Duration Curves 𝑓@ 𝑚
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m0
The maximum average discharge in the next m days
Long termmean
FDC
DDC
The minimum average discharge in the next m days
Target release
5% exceedancelevel discharge over m days
5% non-exceedancelevel drought
Necessary storage𝑓B.BD∗ 𝑚
𝑓B.BD 𝑚
Vfc
Vdm
days
to maintain the control level
Inte
nsity
Durationmm
Qm3/s
QmeanQTarget
Move the point along the duration curve and find the largest rectangular.That is the necessary storage,
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Q
t0
Long termmean
FDC
DDCWater supply target
Flood channel capacity
m3/s
Inte
nsity
Duration
Necessary Storage
QT:flood
QT:drought
If control targets are different from the long term mean,
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BahadurabadHardingebridge
Bhairab bazar
MRI-AGCM3.2S1979-2003, 2075-2099
Bias corrected by EU WFD
Simulated by BTOP modeldaily in 20km
mesh
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Bahadurabad
Hardingebridge
Bhairab bazar
Flood
Drought
Present(1979-2003)
Return period5 years
km3
km3
400
80
MRI-AGCM3.2S1979-2003, 2075-2099
Bias corrected by EU WFD
Simulated by BTOP modeldaily in 20km
mesh
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Fig 5. Necessary storage (km3) and Iso-necessary storage (months) at present with maintaining discharge Q=Qmean
Floods
Droughts
km3
mon
ths
Present
QTarget=Qmean
(1979-2003)
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MRI Present (1979-2003)
Floods
Droughts
km3
mon
ths
Present
QT=3Qm & 0.5Qm
(1979-2003)
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Q
t0
Long termmean
FDC
DDC
Inte
nsity
Duration
Climate change impact
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Reservoir volume necessary to maintain Q=Qmean (base period) with 5 years return period (black line for base period, 1979-2003 and red line for future period, 2075-2099)
Example of the FDC-DDC changes in GBM at their outlets.
MRI-AGCM3.2S1979-2003, 2075-2099
Bias corrected by EU WFD
Simulated by BTOP modeldaily in 20km
mesh
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Fig 7. Changes of Iso-necessary storage (future-present) with maintaining discharge Q=3*Qmean during flood and Q=0.5*Qmean during drought
Floods
Droughts
km3
Future - Present
Q=3Qm & 0.5QmQ=Qmean
km3
(2075-2099)-(1979-2003)
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Fig 7. Changes of Iso-necessary storage (future-present) with maintaining discharge Q=Qmean
Floods
Droughts
%
mon
ths
Future - Present
Q=Qmean
(2075-2099)-(1979-2003)
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Fig 7. Changes of Iso-necessary storage (future-present) with maintaining discharge Q=3*Qmean during flood and Q=0.5*Qmean during drought
Floods
Droughts
%
mon
ths
Future - Present
Q=3Qm & 0.5Qm
(2075-2099)-(1979-2003)
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Other uses of FDC & DDC
l Necessary storages• Hydro-climatological assessment of difficulty or ease of
water resources management• Reservoir design
l Reservoir operation• Expected precipitation or inflow under a given rate of failure
l Palm print of basin hydrology• Hydrological characterization
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MmRIVP m
m m
,...,11
0
1
0=≤⎟
⎠
⎞⎜⎝
⎛≤+∑ ∑
−
=
−
=++ β
ν νντντ
Chance constraint reservoir operationWRR 22(2) 1986
)(mfk
m1
VR
)(2 mf
)(1 mf
Six reservoirs’ total storage in Fukuoka
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WarsawKrynica三面(新潟)
FDC-DDC of river discharge
FDC-DDC of local precipitation
Poznan
Poland
沖浦(青森) 厚東川(山口)
JH 102, 1988
Palm Prints of basin hydrology
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Why Global Maps?
l Global distribution of hydro-climatological, land cover, and geological heterogeneities in terms of necessary storages to smooth out variations.
l Global maps of relative difficulty or ease of managing hydrological floods and droughts.
l Examine scale effects such as Vfc/Qm, Vdm/Qmean ~ A (PET/P)
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Necessary storage and long memory
l Assuming a constant release of the long term mean, Hurst (1951) found the adjusted range Rn*~nH, H~0.72>0.5 in the Nile• Rn*=maxSt*-minSt*, St*=St-(t/n)Sn
l Feller (1951) H~0.5 (Brownian motion)l Mandelbrot (1982) fractal 1/fl Klemes, Moran, Lloyd, ….
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Necessary storage From time to space
l Relation between Vfc, Vdm and Rn*l Hurst (1951) Rn*~nH Time domainl What about Vfc/Qm, Vdm/Qm~AK? Space domain
A
V/Qm
Budyko’s aridity index(months or days)
(km2)
? ?
? ? ?
Different hydro-climatic zones
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DDC
FDC
Catchment Area km2
V/Q
mm
onth
s
V/Q
mm
onth
sGanges
Brahmaputra
Catchment Area km2X 105
X 105QT=Qmean
MRI-AGCM3.2S1979-2003, 2075-2099
Bias corrected by EU WFD
Simulated by BTOP modeldaily in 20km
mesh
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Let us look into diversity of global hydrology
from a storage domain!
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Thank you!
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FDC-DDC publicationsl Kikkawa, H. and K. Takeuchi (1975.2): Characteristics of drought
duration curve and its application, Proc. JSCE, 234, 61-71l Takeuchi, K. and H. Kikkawa (1980.11): Drought duration curve method
as compared with mass curve method, Proc. JSCE, 303, 53-63l Takeuchi, K. (1986.4): Chance-constrained model for real-time reservoir
operation using drought duration curve, Water Resour. Res., 22(2), 551-558
l Takeuchi, K. (1988.9): Hydrological persistence characteristics of floods and droughts-Interregional comparisons, J. Hydrology, 102, 49-67
l Masood, M and K. Takeuchi (2015.7) Climate change impact on the manageability of floods and droughts of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins using Flood Duration Curves and Drought Duration Curves, J. Disaster Research, 5(10), 991-1000
l Masood, M and K. Takeuchi (2015.10) Persistence Characteristics of Floods and Droughts of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins Using Flood Duration Curve and Drought Duration Curve, J. Water Resource and Hydraulic Engineering, 4(4), 413-421
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Q
t0
Long termmean
FDC
DDCWater supply target
Flood channel capacity
Increase by climate change
Increase by climate change
Inte
nsity
Duration
Climate change impact
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FDC DDC
Target discharge Target discharge
Qmean
km3/month
Q=Qmean
months %
Q=3*Qmean
months %
Q=Qmean
months %
Q=0.5*Qmean
months %
Brahma-
putra
present 49.7 4.0 0.05 3.9 0.7
future 57.1 15 6.2 55 0.6 1200 3.7 -5 0.6 -14
Ganges present 40.1 6.0 1.0 5.5 1.2
future 46.8 15 8.4 40 2.5 150 5.3 -4 1.1 -8
Meghna present 10.4 6.1 0.1 5.1 1.7
future 12.4 20 9.6 58 0.8 700 4.8 -6 1.5 -11
The smaller the smoothing capacity, the larger the climate change impact.For annual smoothing for drought, climate change would work favorably.
Climate change impacts on necessary storages
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DDC:渇水持続曲線法
! ∑−+
=∈=
⋅=1
,...,1
1
11
1)(mt
ttt
yearjtNj
thk x
mnmismallestkmf
th
"#"$%
土論 234, 1975吉川秀夫+小沢・林・
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-90 Jan-91
流量
(m
3/s)
富士川 船山橋
年最小15日流量
年最小30日流量
1990 1991
120日
60日
年最大流量15日~120日